some thoughts on our energy future(s) ~in pictures~ nw energy coalition nw clean & affordable...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~
NW Energy CoalitionNW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference
Comments of Ron BinzPublic Policy Consulting
November 8, 2013 Seattle, WA
![Page 2: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Public Policy Consulting
www.rbinz.com
![Page 3: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Pressures on the Utility Model
• New environmental regulations• Investment requirements• Flat load growth• Shifting fuel economics• Upward pressure on rates• Distributed energy resources• Falling cost of alternative resources
![Page 6: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
=
![Page 8: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
WECC (2032): Potential Bypass Threats from Distributed Generation are Large
• WECC-wide Behind-the-Meter DG: 19 GW of solar PV + 7 GW of CHP• Distributed PV based on “interconnection potential” (no back-flow through
feeders), with adjustments to reflect relative economics among states• CHP additions represent a fixed percentage (~40%) of technical potential in
each state
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
AB AZ BC CA CO ID MT MX NV NM OR UT WA WY
CHP Solar PV Customer-Sited DG Additions in WECC High DSM Case(Percent of Peak Demand)
Source: E3 (2013).
![Page 16: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
NREL’s estimate of continued cost reductions for wind energy
![Page 21: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Oregon
Colorado New Jersey GermanyArizonaWashington
![Page 22: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Renewable Electricity Futures Study (REF)
Exploration of High-PenetrationRenewable Electricity Futures
Available at NREL.gov
![Page 28: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Baseline Case
![Page 29: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
REF ITI Case
![Page 30: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
How does the assumption of an HREF affect the business model?
Much higher levels of variable generation at the bulk power scale
Greater penetration of distributed energy resources at the distribution scale
Greater need for flexibility in the grid components, operations, and architecture
Much higher levels of energy efficiency (sufficient to eliminate load growth)
(affects utility organization, operations)
(affects utility revenues, services)
(affects utility investment, operations)
(affects utility role, services)
![Page 31: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
• Thesis: Utilities must develop a set of new business models
• Thesis: Today’s regulation may not be up to the task– Rarely rewards utilities for desired behavior– Lack of incentives for
• firm efficiency• clean energy investment• energy efficiency• innovation
– Rate structures need revision– Focus on commodity sales– Balky, judicial process
![Page 32: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
• Authors– Ron Binz
– Richard Sedano
– Denise Furey
– Dan Mullen
Available at www.ceres.org
![Page 33: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
![Page 34: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
![Page 35: Some Thoughts on Our Energy Future(s) ~In Pictures~ NW Energy Coalition NW Clean & Affordable Energy Conference Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e165503460f94b004f9/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
The Final Word
111(d)