social media in australian federal elections: comparing the 2013 and 2016 campaigns
TRANSCRIPT
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Social Media in Australian Federal Elections: Comparing the 2013 and 2016 Campaigns
Prof. Axel BrunsDr. Brenda MoonDigital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australiaa.bruns / brenda.moon @ qut.edu.au@snurb_dot_info / @brendam
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Book LaunchFriday, 14.30, at the Routledge book stall:
Prof. Brian McNair launches
The Routledge Companion to Social Media and Politics. Eds. Axel Bruns, Gunn Enli, Eli Skogerbø, Anders Olof Larsson and Christian Christensen. Basingstoke: Routledge, 2016.
Six continents. 37 chapters. 66 contributors. ~550 pages. #socmedpol
Come join us!
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Australian Politics: A Crash Course• Key features:
– Westminster(ish) system: first past the post in 150 federal electorates = 150 MPs– But with voting preferences distribution from minor to major parties– Plus Senate: 12 senators per state, 2 per territory – (12 x 6) + (2 x 2) = 76 senators– Compulsory voting: 90%+ turnout, 3-5% informal (spoilt) votes– ~3-year parliamentary terms, can be shortened to ~2.5 years on PM’s advice
• Parties:– Australian Labor Party (centre left)– Coalition = Liberal Party (conservative) + National Party (agrarian protectionists)– Australian Greens (left, selected issues)– Palmer United Party, Katter’s Australian Party, Nick Xenophon Team, One Nation, … (anti-
establishment parties formed around charismatic leaders)
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Australian Politics: A Car Crash• Considerable political instability since 2007:
– 1996-2007: PM John Howard (Liberal Party)– 2007: PM Kevin Rudd (Labor Party), elected in landslide– 2010: PM Julia Gillard (Labor Party) replaces Rudd in Labor coup– 2010: PM Julia Gillard (Labor Party) wins election, forms minority government– 2013: PM Kevin Rudd (Labor Party) replaces Gillard in Labor coup– 2013: PM Tony Abbott (Liberal Party), elected in landslide– 2015: PM Malcolm Turnbull (Liberal Party) replaces Abbott in Coalition coup– 2016: PM Malcolm Turnbull (Liberal Party) wins election with one-seat majority– (2016: Abbott building up for new coup attempt on PM Turnbull?)
Five (six, with Rudd mk. II) Australian Prime Ministers in ten years
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Social Media in Australian Elections• Strong social media take-up in Australia:
– ~13m Facebook accounts; ~4m Twitter accounts, ~1m tweets/day (24m population)– Political uses well-established: ~10k #auspol tweets/day; #ausvotes; #qanda; etc.– Considerably larger volume of everyday political talk outside hashtags likely– Most politicians have social media accounts – varying sophistication
• Australian political social media research:– Studies of key hashtags and events (#spill / #libspill / #returnbull / …)– Interviews with key political operatives– Internal party research and post-election reviews– Analyses of social media citations and sourcing practices in mainstream media
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Our Approach• Beyond hashtags:
– Identification of all candidates’ Twitter accounts before 2013 and 2016 elections– Tracking of activities: tweets by candidates + tweets at candidates (@replies and retweets)– Twitter Capture and Analysis Toolkit (TCAT) + Google BigQuery + Tableau– Comparative analysis of activity around candidates and parties during both elections
• Timeframes:– Last two calendar weeks before election day: Mon-Sun + Mon-Fri (election on Saturday)– 26 Aug. to 6 Sep. 2013 + 20 June to 1 July 2016
• Analysis:– Focus here on interpretation of quantitative patterns in electoral context– Qualitative study of tweet texts and sentiments to come later– Longer-term analysis of 2013 election patterns already published:
Axel Bruns. “Tweeting to Save the Furniture: The 2013 Australian Election Campaign on Twitter.” Media International Australia (2016). DOI: 10.1177/1329878X16669001.
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2013: Candidate Activity
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2016: Candidate Activity
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2013: Engagement with Candidates
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2016: Engagement with Candidates
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Observations• Key patterns:
– Candidates in 2013:• Labor campaign reliant on rank-and-file candidates; frontbench largely absent
– Aligned with strong doorknocking campaign: ‘local target’ strategy• Coalition campaign driven by frontbenchers; other candidates quiet
– Strong central control, fear of missteps: ‘small target’ / ‘known target’ strategy
– Candidates 2016:• Labor campaign more united; frontbenchers much more present
– Doorknocking retained, but also better central control: ‘local target’ + ‘known target’ strategies• Coalition campaign more disorganised; limited control
– Indications of continuing internal disagreements over party direction: ‘small target’ vs. ‘friendly target’?
– Engagement in 2013 and 2016:• Much more engagement activity by ordinary users in 2016• Almost no retweeting in 2013; strong retweeting especially of Labor in 2016• Governing party always receives the greatest number of @mentions• Audience focus strongly on PM candidates and leading frontbenchers• Also some addressing of party dissidents: ex-PMs Gillard (2013) and Abbott (2016), internal critics Wayne Swan
(Labor, 2013) and Cory Bernardi (Coalition, 2016)
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Thematic Patterns• Theme construction:
– Themes drawn from 2013 ABC VoteCompass + iSentia media themes of 2013– Iterative construction of distinct keyword baskets for each theme– Three additional themes introduced for 2016 election
• Theme analysis:– Classification of tweets based on keyword baskets– Ordered by specificity: e.g. ‘carbon tax’ Environment; ‘tax’ Budget– Iterative testing and refinement– Tracking across timeframes and comparison across elections
• Success rates:– 2013: 25% of tweets matched to themes / 2016: 34% of tweets matched to themes
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Themes Comparison: 2013 / 2016
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2013: Themes per Day
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2016: Themes per Day
(*): new in 2016
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Conclusion and Outlook• Longitudinal perspective:
– Evolution in campaigning strategies: • Labor rediscovery of local candidates and doorknocking + social media approach
– Counteracted by internal party turmoil:• Campaign plans disrupted by lack of enthusiasm and discipline following leadership coups
– Ordinary users’ activities largely stable:• Focus strongly on governing party, and party leaders
– Except for retweeting choices:• Significant changes between 2013 and 2016 – especially Labor retweeting
• Further plans:– More detailed content and thematic analysis (quantitative and qualitative)– Network analysis of @mention / retweet interactions: evidence of polarisation?
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http://mappingonlinepublics.net/ @snurb_dot_info@brendam
@socialmediaQUT – http://socialmedia.qut.edu.au/ @qutdmrc – https://www.qut.edu.au/research/dmrc
This research is funded by the Australian Research Council through Future Fellowship and LIEF grants FT130100703 and LE140100148.