smart city summit nynj l… · field, population growth and distribution among cities has not...
TRANSCRIPT
Lewis Gaskell Jr.
IBM Transportation Leader
Smart City Summit
Safety and security
Population, globalization and demographics
Congestion and capacity constraints
Economic crisis and uncertainty
Aging Infrastructure
The world is rapidly changing
In 2007, for the first time in history, the majority of the world’s population lived in cities – 3.3 billion. By 2050, city dwellers are expected to make up 70 percent of the Earth’s total population – 6.4 billion
3
Cities are now the center of urban activity
While globalization has “flattened” the economic playing field, population growth and distribution among cities has
not leveled
Over 8,000 commuters in 20 cities surveyed.As a result each city was ranked on the economic / emotional
toll traffic congestion (i.e. Commuter Pain) is causing.
5
2011 Survey Results
IBM compiled the results of the survey into its Commuter Pain Index that ranks the emotional and economic toll of commuting in each city on a scale of one to 100, with 100 being the most onerous
Potential for substantial economic and social benefits
6
Real Benefits
Minimize congestion costs
Reduce pollution
Boost economic activity
WW: USD$740 billion annual cost25% reduction in congestion = USD$185 billion savings in U.S.
WW: 4,848 million tonnes of carbon emissions from road transportation sources
20% emissions reduction = 970 million tonnes
WW: 1.24 million annual road crash related deaths25% reduction = 310,000 lives annuallyReduce accidents
6% increase in retail sales from 25% reduction in congestionAverage capital city experiences a EUR1.4 billion potential increase in retail sales
Details
Source: IBM; IMF; World Bank; Centre for Retail Research; International Transport Forum; World Health Organization
The transport ecosystem is confronting four critical global issues, which are creating a specific set of challenges for
transport agencies.
Drivers of change Industry challenges Imperatives
Population explosionCapacity and congestionHow to meet the growing, changing demand efficiently, consistently and profitably?
Predict demand and optimize transportation assets and infrastructure
UrbanizationEmpowered customersHow to deliver the greatest choice, convenience and value to consumers?
Dramatically improve the end-to-end traveler experience
System Inefficiencies
Efficient operationsHow to improve efficiency and reduce costs, and improve service and reduce environmental impact?
Improve operational efficiency while reducing environmental impact
TechnologySafety and securityHow to unobtrusively reduce exposure to security risks and increase the safety of operations?
Ensure safety and security
Transportation is the lynchpin for economic viability and competitiveness in today’s
global economy
Cities can infuse intelligence into their entire transportation system, improving drivers’commutes, giving better information to city planners, increasing public transportation
use and business productivity, and raising citizens’ quality of life.
INSTRUMENTEDSmarter transportation ecosystemsare able to track traffic from source to destination, monitor conditions in real time and instantly identify faults and inefficienciesacross assets and infrastructure.
INTERCONNECTEDSmarter connections provide customers access to continuously updated information as well as travel choices, with instant notification of any irregularities in the transport system.
INTELLIGENTAdvanced analytics on realtime and predictive data enables decisions to be made in optimizing the operations of a transportation system.
9 Technology Trends To Watch In 201415Jan2014
Summary: Top Trends To Watch In 2016
9
1 SecurityExternal threats increase. Impact of bid data, mobile, social, and cloud. Now a business operations issue . CISO tasked with enterprise-wide strategy that includes encryption / biometrics
2 Cloud Computing All types grow, but buzz in 2016 will be about Hybrids. Public clouds will experience price wars. Cloud increasingly becomes distribution channel for software apps. Intersection with mobile.
3 Mobile Computing More devices, apps, clouds, analytics. Mobile security becomes a larger concern. HTML use increases. BYOD programs necessary.
4 Internet of Things Sensors, M2M and wearables. Analysts talk of Billions of sensors and $T impact on economy. Execs and IT Leaders need to understand how to leverage it all.
5 Big Data Explosion of data. How to collect, store, manage the data securely so it can be analyzed? Hadoop matures & goes realtime. Chief Data Officer role. Data Scientists. Training required
6 Analytics The on ramp to the Smarter Planet. Embedded, predictive, unstructured, mobile. Applications for all processes. Self Service tools needed. Need changes in culture, skills, business processes.
7Cognitive Computing
Smart Machines that learn, adapt, and think like humans are on their way. Watson, Google Now, Siri, Cortana. Robots. Will be highly disruptive. Leaders scenario planning.
8 Social BusinessIt is about connecting people before, during and after every task, every business transaction. Front office and back office apps. For the entire value chain. CEOs own up to changing culture.
9 Digital Marketing Marketing is going through a huge transformation. Must significantly improve digital experience across all channels. All types of analytics required. Need help from IT.
10 Software DevelopmentDevelopers, Developers, Developers!! This is a critical age of software development with many trends happening. DevOps, APM, Open ‘Everything’, SDN, Hackdays, Agile methods
Source: Bill Chamberlin
Source: HorizonWatch, IBM Market Insights
10
Tolling Congestion charging (variable)From To
New technologies can help transform transportation
11
Monitor traffic Understand and Predict traffic
Road sensors Social media and weather analytics
Historic data Real time & predictive
Traffic management Predictive transport management
Bus and metro Dynamic multi modal transport
Traffic signs In-car messaging
Cruise control Autonomous driving
Navigation Real-time predictive guidance
Cars EV & Connected cars
ABS Reactive Incident prevention
Congestion Optimized traffic flow
Economic constraint Economic growth
12 16.04.2016
The emphasis today, is to put the customer at the center and manage sales and service deliverythroughout the customer journey experience
Developing an Integrated Traveler Eco-system is required to reduce the Complexity and Respond to Customer Expectations and Demands
12 16.04.2016
The VisionThis will require a digital platform that connects an ecosystem
13
TrafficInfo
Providers
Tourism
Publicinstitutions /
Cities
IT-& Commerce
Solutionprovider
BikeSharing
Media
Value AddProvider
Taxi
PublicTransport
CarSharing
Integration of a travel ecosystem...
...with a jointly used digital platform...
...with the goal to offer travellers new and better services for a unique end-
to-end travel experience
End-to-End Trip Booking
Intermodal Planning
Pro-active Asstistance
Buy add-on services & productsDigital Platform
© 2015 IBM Corporation14 16.04.2016
The right mix of Big Data & Analytics capabilities enables better decisions and increases the business value
How can everyonebe more right…….more often?
DescriptiveWhat has happened?
PredictiveWhat could happen?
PrescriptiveHow can we achieve the best outcome?
Cognitive – e.g. WatsonTell me the best course of action?
Big Data& Analytics
Business Value
Deploying Predictive Analytics Optimization (PAO) for Transportation
Correlation Optimization Allocation
OPERATIONS ACTION
Deployment OptimizationEmergency DeploymentBudget PlanningPolicy Support
Asset UtilizationTraffic PatternsAsset DeploymentEmergency Planning
Weather/season
Demand
Environment
Road Assets
Construction actions
Enforcement Actions
Measurements
Control actions
Traffic Data
Maintenance resources
Equipment Category
Economic factors
Equipment rating
BUSINESS OUTCOMES
Training actions
EXOGENOUS CONDITIONS
OPERATIONS
Equipment deployment
Equipment Location
ANALYTICS ENGINE
Unlike other analytics in use today, PAO leverages ALL data types to discover relationships between factors and outcomes
The next generation rail car technology to provide real-time information including bearing temperature, weight distribution, brake control and location tracking
Rail technology infrastructure will target– On-board, near real-time information– One infrastructure supporting
multiple sensor modalities– Identify railroad equipment while
enroute
Smarter Rail
Infrastructure will continue to advance in telematics, surveillance, driver assistance, and frieght
Smarter Transportation
Traffic and Incident Prediction Provides cities with a future view into the near-term traffic flowFacilitates decisions and planning …real time is too late!
Telematics will reduce service time by allowing remote and faster diagnostics and also will enable prognostic capabilities and proactive servicing.
Camera-based Driver AssistanceDeveloped for recognizing lanes, occupants, vehicles from mobile camera
IBM is working with cities like Miami Dade, London, Zhenjiang, Singapore, Da Nang, Dublin, Lyon and Stockholm to deploy smarter transportation systems.
Lyon: real-time decision support on steps that traffic engineers can use to reduce traffic congestion and enable faster incident response time when an unexpected event occurs.
Zhenjiang: makes public transportation system faster and more efficient by improving transit flow on 2,000 city buses and 100 bus routes
Da Nang: real-time information on traffic control center and 100 city buses to assist in monitoring traffic and controlling traffic lights
Zurich: providing apps that tie in dynamic multi modal trip planning with seamless open fare payment
Singapore FASTer program is the most innovative, using the latest predictive and prescriptive as well as people as sensors for O-D patterns, incidents and actions.
SMARTER TRANSPORTATION
Predictive Asset Optimization
ld predict the failure revent costly
wntime?
when an asset is scheduled ntenance, you could predict
arts are likely to fail in the ture?
What if, you could statistically monitor in real-time all of your equipment globally from a singleweb dashboard?
What if you could quickly mine the thousands of maintenance logs to determine the most effective repair procedures?
You could…Improve operational efficiencyExtend the life of an assetReduce unscheduled maintenanceImprove diagnosis and prognosiscapabilities
Optimize product designDetermine best repair strategies
Parking challenge causes 30% of traffic in city
Culver CitySausalito
New York CityRoosevelt Island
15 blocks for 1 year in Los Angeles
3.3 min – average time looking for parking
950,000 miles – excess vehicle miles driven
38 trips – around the earth
47,000 gallons – wasted gas
730 tons – carbon dioxide greenhouse gas
All this driving to get nowhere
*Based on 2007 UCLA Study by Prof. D. Shoup
For Cities- Parking revenue loss- Congested roads- Poor Resource utilization- High Environmental impact
For Merchants & Business Owners-Loss of business -Customer frustration-Limited ability to influence –no data
For Consumers- Uncertainty - Productivity loss- Ineffective pricing- Quality of Life impact
What is Insights in Motion
City and Regional Views of the movement and patterns of people over time
– Classify trips based on various parameters• Work, Shopping, Schools, Freight and Tourist Travels
– Show Origins and Destinations– Location and Demographics – Movement Patterns and Anomalies
Connected Vehicles Internet of Things - IoT
23
Stream Computing Connected VehiclesContinuous Ingestion Continuous Complex Analysis in Microseconds
Smartcar
Find my car
Unlock my car
vibration detected, details published
schedules appointmentwith car owner
predicts part failure
m2m “Connected Car” for telematics, infotainment, mobile
SMART-In-Car : real time car generated data
Snow and Ice rain real time – November 25 2012, 12:00
Heavy Snow / Rain
Predictive Weather Planning How It Works
Weather Model Pre-PositionerDamageModel
High PrecisionWeather
Prediction
Damage/OutagePrediction
Physics-Based &Statistical Model
AdvancedStatistical Model
OptimizationModel
Pre-Planning(up to 3 days lead)
RestorationResponseScenarios
Resource Mobilization
Expected DamageLocations & Timing
Wind Gusts,Snow, …
© 2015 IBM Corporation
Initiated and managed by Grand Lyon: 3 years http://www.optimodlyon.org/
13 public and private partners2 Public Entities
– Grand Lyon and City of Lyon8 Private companies
– Renault Trucks, IBM, Orange, CityWay, Phoenix ISI, Parkeon, Autoroutes Trafic, Geoloc Systems
3 Research Centers – Laboratoire d’Économie des Transports (LET), Centre d’Études Techniques
de l’Équipement (CETE) de l’Est and laboratoire LIRIS (Université Lyon 1)
28 16.04.2016
New real time data gathering
systems(traffic and
parking)
Mobility portal
Mobility portal
Optimizing traffic regulation through 1hour prediction
Real-time, multimodal, travel planner
Optimizing urban freight
© 2015 IBM Corporation29
Some Thoughts....
Provide easier access to transport services through system-wide, real time visibility
Increase public transport patronage and trip experience
Provide better travelers information, improve customer decision abilities
Facilitate modal shift from car and reduce congestion
Improve Public perception of transportation
Allow crowdsourced feedback to create a better faster network
Implement technology to make most use of efficiency of costly infrastructure – prediction,
Provide easier access through common multi mode payment systems
Road User Charging – pay for use of roads – change behavior
Connected Vehicles Implications– V2V , V2x
Better planning & modeling tools for affects of changes
Consider parking as part of traffic issue
Holistic city view of ecosystem – water, energy, safety, & transportation