smart and just grids to be...•illustration originally adopted from unleashing the killer app....
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Lawrence Jones
Smart and Just Grids
-
AABE 34th Annual Conference
April 28, 2011
GRID
Jersey City, NJ
April 28, 2011
The World @ Night in 2011
Demand Up 30% by 2030 (EIA 2006)B
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Slide Courtesy of: Jeffery Berst
How will the World @ Night look in 2030?
A third Sector alongside Power and Transport
A decisive step in ALSTOM’s development
• Power • Transport
Until May 2010: 2 Sectors Today: 3 Sectors
Sales: Over €23 billion*
Workforce: 96,000 employees
Sales: €19.7 billion*
Workforce: 76,500 employees
POWER TRANSPORT POWER TRANSPORTGRID
*pro forma 2009/10*2009/10
Windsor, CT
NYC
Harrisburg, PA
Rochester, NY
Hornell, NY
Wellsville, NY
Wexford, PAWarrenville, IL
Denver, CO
Naperville, IL
Danville, ILWashington, DC
Melville, NY
U.S. Locations
Burlington, VT
Vallejo, CA Wilmington, DE
Redmond, WA
Philadelphia, PA
Charleroi, PACanton, OH
Stow, OH
Richmond, VA
Suwanee, GA
Chattanooga, TN
Knoxville, TN
Erlanger, KYConcordia, KS
Littleton, CO
Tyler, TX
Transport
Power
Grid
Jupiter, FL
Danville, ILWashington, DC
� 10,000+ employees, including contract workers.
Amarillo, TX
Waynesboro, GA
Phoenix, AZ
Houston, TX
The “Smart“ Challenge
How to integrate the basic abilities of awareness and reaction
into a device, system or system-of-systems with minimum
cost and complexity, in order to achieve predefined
functionality and performance goals?functionality and performance goals?
Convergence of Interconnected Industries
Energy
ICT
Transpor-
tation
Technology
Business
Social
Rates of Change*
Time
Political
Time
Probability of NearProbability of NearProbability of NearProbability of Near----Simultaneous Tipping PointsSimultaneous Tipping PointsSimultaneous Tipping PointsSimultaneous Tipping Points
FormationFormationFormationFormation DeclineDeclineDeclineDeclineMaturityMaturityMaturityMaturityGrowthGrowthGrowthGrowth
Time (Yrs)
Industry SIndustry SIndustry SIndustry S----Curves AnalysisCurves AnalysisCurves AnalysisCurves Analysis
•Illustration originally adopted from Unleashing the Killer App. Larry Downes, C. Mui 20000. Note : The Political
Trajectory was later modified
Smart Grid Cost, Value and the Law of Numbers
See “Significance of Information Technology on Moore’s and Metcalfe’s laws
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind02/c8/c8s1.htm.
The Smart Grid Transformation
Smarter data managementSmarter data managementSmarter data managementSmarter data management
InterconnectionsInterconnectionsInterconnectionsInterconnections
Central power plantsCentral power plantsCentral power plantsCentral power plants
IndustriesIndustriesIndustriesIndustries
Commercial Buildings Commercial Buildings Commercial Buildings Commercial Buildings
Residential Residential Residential Residential
Areas Areas Areas Areas
Renewable energy Renewable energy Renewable energy Renewable energy
StorageStorageStorageStorage
MicroMicroMicroMicro----gridsgridsgridsgrids Electric VehicleElectric VehicleElectric VehicleElectric Vehicle
Smart HomesSmart HomesSmart HomesSmart Homes
Smarter equipment & Smarter equipment & Smarter equipment & Smarter equipment &
connectionsconnectionsconnectionsconnections
InterconnectionsInterconnectionsInterconnectionsInterconnections
A Network of Interconnected Microgrids
Smart Grid Marathon & Opportunities
Smart Smart Smart Smart
GridGridGridGrid
USA
&
Canada
China
&
India
EU
Note: Several other countries have embarked on Smart Grid Initiatives, e.g. Australia, Brazil, New Zealand
International Competition and Collaboration are Accelerating the Development of Smart Grids.
How will Smart Grids Illuminate the World at Night by 2030?
Some Recent Statistics on Africa
14% of the World Population In 2008 Africans spend $860bn
on goods & services - 35% more
than Indians spent .
This is expected to reach $1,2
Trillion
by 2020ergy
7% of World Energy Production
316 million cell
phone subscribers Energy
80% of Africans rely on biomass
for residential energy
Dr. Lawrence Jones
By 2030, More than 630 million
Africans lack access to electricity
Quantity of World Reserves
10% - Oil
40 % Gold Ore
80-90% Chromium
phone subscribers Energy
3% Consumption
of World Commercial Energy
How will Smart Grids Illuminate the Lives and the Nights of billions of people on the planet by 2030?
Africa’s Economy - Annual GDP
839
1,0671,108 1,114
1,1911,258
1,3231,400
1,4831,549 1,580
1,654*1,740**
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 US$ Billions
461
694
839
0
200
400
600
800
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
* = Estimated
** = Projected
Source: Lions on the Move: The Progress and Potential of African Economies, www.mckinsey.com/mgi
Africa’s Economy – GDP Growth Rate
4.2%
3.8%
3.3%
4.1%
5.6%
5.2%
5.8%5.9%
4.5%4.7%*
5.2%**5.2%**5.2%**5.2%**
* = Estimated
** = Projected
Source: Lions on the Move: The Progress and Potential of African Economies, www.mckinsey.com/mgi
1.9%
2.4%
3.3%
2%
1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Dr. Lawrence Jones
Authors of “Smart & Just Grids: Opportunities for sub-Saharan Africa”
• Morgan Bazilian, UNDP, Austria
• Manuel Welsch, Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
• David Elzinga, International Energy Agency, France
• Goran Strbac, Imperial College, UK
• Mark Howells, Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
Slide 19
• Mark Howells, Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
• Lawrence Jones, Alstom Grid Inc, USA
• Andrew Keane, University College Dublin, Ireland
• Dof Gielen, International Renewable Energy Agency, UAE
• V.S.K. Murthy Balijepailli, Indian Institute of Technology, India
• Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Kwame Nkrumah University, Ghana
• Kandeh Yumkella, UNDP, Austria
Smart and Just Components
• Smart
• Policies
• Planning
• Systems & Operations
• Technologies
• People
• Reduced blackout probability
Slide 20
People
• Reduced blackout probability
• Just
• Access
• Billing & Subsidies
New Consumer Behavior
From iPod then iPhone to tomorrow’s New eiPoDeiPoDeiPoDeiPoDTM
Social Networking & the Smart Grid
What will accelerate change in customer behavior and expectation?
E.g. We could aggregate our energy consumption with an entrepreneurial aggregator and bid into the PJM market?
Smart Grid Business Opportunities
• New Business Models for utilities
• Community Demand Response Aggregators
• Community Energy Storage
• Micro grid OperatorsMicro grid Operators
• Fleet of rental cars aggregated at major public events, e.g. NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL
• Community – Block-by-block Charging Stations
• Single or multi-dwelling residential customers
• Home Area Network (HAN)
• Lighting Systems
. . . . . . . . . . . .
Interoperability
Foundation of Smart Grids
Illustration Credit: www.grid-interop.com/2007/
Proactively Manage the Expectations of AllAllAllAll Stakeholders
Be Realistic When Describing the Potential Opportunities
Benefits of Smart Grids to Stakeholders
“Life is NOT a predictable machine, life is a surprise”David Orell, The Future of Everything
“In all industries, “In all industries, “In all industries, “In all industries, InnovationInnovationInnovationInnovation starts by starts by starts by starts by ObservingObservingObservingObserving the Customer”the Customer”the Customer”the Customer”
Jerry Gutsche, Exploiting Chaos
Life is NOT a predictable machine, life is a surprise”Life is NOT a predictable machine, life is a surprise”Life is NOT a predictable machine, life is a surprise”Life is NOT a predictable machine, life is a surprise”
David Orell, The Future of Everything
Closing Quotes
“Converging technologies offer new options for customers “Converging technologies offer new options for customers “Converging technologies offer new options for customers “Converging technologies offer new options for customers
but challenge the business assumptions of established companies”but challenge the business assumptions of established companies”but challenge the business assumptions of established companies”but challenge the business assumptions of established companies”
Larry Downes, The Laws of Disruption
“How many things are judged impossible before they actually happen”“How many things are judged impossible before they actually happen”“How many things are judged impossible before they actually happen”“How many things are judged impossible before they actually happen”
Pliny the Elder, Naturalis Historia, VII
