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© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP.This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Small Modular Reactors In A UK Low Carbon Energy System The International SMR and Advanced Reactor Summit USA - 14th to 15th April 2016
Mike Middleton – Energy Technologies Institute
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Presentation Structure
Introduction to the ETI• The Energy Technologies Institute - what do we do?• Nuclear in a UK low carbon 2050 energy system• “Large” Nuclear – deployment constraints• Finding a UK niche for small nuclear
ETI’s recent projects and analysis – Nuclear Insights October 2015• Power Plant Siting Study• Alternative Nuclear Technologies Study• ESME Sensitivity Analysis For Nuclear
Current work on preparing to deploy a first SMR in the UK• Siting options for the first SMRs• Engineering and cost estimation studies related to CHP and different cooling systems• Enabling activities in the first 5 years of a programme to deploy the first SMR in the UK
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ETI programme associate
ETI members
Introduction to the ETI organisation
• The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) is a public-private partnership between global industries and UK Government
Delivering...
• Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy
• Shared risk
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
What does the ETI do?
System level strategic planning
Technology development & demonstration
Delivering knowledge &
innovation
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EnergySystemModellingEnvironment
Typical ESME Outputs
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
2010(Historic)
2020 2030 2040 2050
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mt C
O2/y
ear
DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4
International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2
Notes:•Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors•“Biocredits” includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.
Typical ETI Transition Scenario
Net UK CO2 Emissions
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Installed Electrical Generation Capacity
020406080
100120140
2010(Historic)
2020 2030 2040 2050
GW
DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4
Geothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerMicro Solar PVLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantEnergy from WasteIGCC Biomass with CCSBiomass Fired GenerationNuclearCCGT with CCSCCGTIGCC Coal with CCSPC CoalGas Macro CHPOil Fired GenerationInterconnectors
Notes:•Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW)•Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup
Typical Scenario Without CCS Delay
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Competition For Sites?
Potential For Competition For Sites Between Nuclear and New Thermal Plants With CCS
Aspirational Capacity
Site Capacity
16 GW
40 GW ?75 GW ?
Potential coastal locations to access CCS transport and disposal infrastructure
• CO2 disposal sites in Irish and North Seas• CO2 storage and transport infrastructure expected to be
located on the coast nearer the disposal sites• New thermal plant requires CCS connection and access
to suitable and sufficient cooling water
Note: the policy of the Scottish Government is not to support the deployment of new nuclear within Scotland but to focus on renewables instead
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For SMRs to be deployed in UK:• technology development to be completed• range of approvals and consents to be secured• sufficient public acceptance of technology
deployment at expected locations against either knowledge or ignorance of alternatives
• deployment economically attractive to o reactor vendorso utilities and investorso consumers & taxpayers
Can Small Nuclear Build A Niche Within The UK Energy System?
Small Nuclear Large Nuclear
Realistic objective for SMRs to be economically attractive to all stakeholdersFID – Final Investment Decision
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Containment structure
Reactor vessel
Turbine
Condenser
Generator
Steam GeneratorControl rods
Single Revenue Stream Multiple Revenue Streams
1. BaseloadElectricity
1. BaseloadElectricity
2. Variable Electricity To Aid Grid Balancing
Waste Heat Rejected To The Environment 3. Heat Recovery To Energise
District Heating Systems
Containment structure
Reactor vessel
Turbine
Condenser
Generator
Steam GeneratorControl rods
Niche For Small Nuclear In The UK?
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Decarbonising Heat Is Important
2010(Historic)
2020 2030 2040 2050
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mt C
O2/y
ear
DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4
International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2
Notes:•Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors•“Biocredits” includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.
Net UK CO2 Emissions
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Hea
t / E
lect
ricity
(G
W)
0
50
100
150
250
200
Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10
HeatElectricity
Design point for a GB heat delivery system
Design point for a GB electricity delivery system
GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic buildings R. Sansom, Imperial College
Heat demand variability in 2010 – Unattractive to electrify it all
Heat demand
Electricity demand
Decarbonising Heat Is Challenging
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Power Plant Siting Study
• Explore UK capacity for new nuclear based on siting constraints
• Consider competition for development sites between nuclear and thermal with CCS
• Undertake a range of related sensitivity studies
• Identify potential capacity for small nuclear based on existing constraints and using sites unsuitable for large nuclear
• Project schedule June 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Atkins for ETI following
competitive open procurement process
System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies• Develop a high level functional requirement
specification for a “black box” power plant for– baseload electricity– heat to energise district heating systems, and– further flexible electricity to aid grid balancing
• Develop high level business case with development costs, unit costs and unit revenues necessary for deployment to be attractive to utilities and investors
• Project schedule August 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Mott MacDonald for ETI following
competitive open procurement process• Outputs to be used in ETI scenario analysis to
determine attractiveness of such a “black box” power plant to the UK low carbon energy system
ETI Projects Delivered
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So What Have We Learned?
• Power Plant Siting Study• System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies• ETI ESME Scenario and Sensitivity Studies For Nuclear
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Siting Data Applied In ESME
Capacity constraints applied in ESME
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• Almost 50 GB urban conurbations with sufficient heat load to support SMR energised heat networks
• Would theoretically require 22 GWeCHP SMR capacity
Future Heat Networks
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SMR Capacity (GWe)By Cooling Water Source
SMR Capacity (GWe)By Regional Location To Meet Demand
SMR Capacity (GWe)By Distance From Potential District Heating Network
Distribution Of SMR Site Capacity
Site capacity for SMRs (not suitable for Giga watt reactors) from the Power Plant Siting Study -Further potential locations likely to be found; the limit has not been explored
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Assumptions: Prices
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Updated ESME Baseline – Capacity with35 GWe Large Gen III+ and without SMRs
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Updated ESME Baseline – Capacity with35 GWe Large Gen III+ with SMRs available
2050 Nuclear Capacity• 1 GWe legacy (SZB)• 35 GWe Gen III+• 16 GWe CHP SMRs
SMR deployment capacity at 2050 influenced by:• Speed to first UK SMR operations • Capital cost (£/kWe)
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Reduction in SMR summer overnight power generation in this model run
• Flexibility is likely to be important to be able to modulate power to help balance the grid• The “flexibility” here is diurnal, within a seasonal pattern• Remember also the impact from intermittent renewables and associated peak generation
Requirement For SMR Flexible Power Delivery
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ESME Analysis Results For Nuclear In UK
Baseload Flexible Extra-flex
Electricity only SMR power plant
Baseload power (continuous full power
operation between outages)
Operated with daily shaped power profile when
required to help balance the grid
(Slightly) reducedbaseload power
with extra storage & surge capacity
Combined Heat & Power (CHP) plant
As above but with heat
As above but with heat
As above but with heat
SMRs optimal here
Large reactors optimal here
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
http://www.eti.co.uk/the-role-for-nuclear-within-a-low-carbon-energy-system/
Conclusions from published ETI insights
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Less than 10 years to prepare to deploy a UK Small Modular Reactor
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UK capability to support SMR deployment
• Expressions of interest until 6th May
• Phase 1 dialogue late May until autumn 2016
Launch of SMR competition by UK Government:
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
What is the range of locations suitable for early SMR deployment and is there an obvious front runner for a First Of A Kind (FOAK) SMR site? • Power Plant Siting Study Phase 3
What are the design, cost and operational implications of committing to a plant which is CHP ready when built? What are the potential cooling system choices and economic impacts if unconstrained access to cooling water becomes more difficult?• System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies Phase 3
What are the necessary enabling activities in the first five years of an SMR programme to support a UK SMR operating date of 2030?• SMR Deployment Enablers Project
Further ETI Projects Relevant To UK SMRs
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Some important UK issues for SMR siting:• Importance of preserving stock of sites suitable for Giga watt reactors• Necessity of strong, consistent local stakeholder support to make early progress• Relevance of siting within UK Government’s SMR competition• Wide range of potential site ranking criteria in 2 groups:
– The physical characteristics of the location– Socio economic factors near the location, which may change with time
Power Plant Siting Study Phase 3Work In Progress (1)
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Alternative Nuclear Technologies Phase 3Work In Progress (2)
Scope:• Technical viability of extracting heat for District Heating (DH) from SMR steam cycle• Steam system design to enable flexible heat extraction alongside flexible power generation• Cost estimation necessary to check earlier assumptions and revisit SMR economics assessed in ANT
Phases 1 and 2• Assess whether vendor choices influence suitability of designs for CHP deployment• Assess performance, cost and economic impacts from adopting different cooling solutions other than
evaporative cooling towers• Identify precedents of nuclear energised CHP and experience of existing DH networks energised by a
range of sources
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Exploiting The Economies Of Multiples –UK GDA and Coping With Variants
ReactorUltimate
Heat Sink
Turbine Hall
Balanceof
Plant
Cooling System Options
Direct Cooling
Evaporative Cooling
Air CooledCondensers
Fin FanCooling
Options to Support Local Market and Deployment
Heat OfftakeOptions
Process Heat
Desalination
District Heating
Standardise To Exploit Economies of Multiples
Scope of Design To Be Assessed Through Generic Design Assessment
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Scope:• Development of scope for first 5 years of a UK SMR programme• Integrated schedule for first 5 years, which could support ops by 2030• Identify necessary capability development of SMR developer/operator
Key Assumptions:• Vendor and developer/operator have already been identified at start• Developer/operator is new to the UK; UK capability generation required• The UK “First Of A Kind” SMR site is not currently included in National Policy Statement – EN6
SMR Context compared with the UK Giga watt reactor new build programme:• Faster programme to deployment compared with Giga watt reactors• UK Government policy for SMRs still being developed• Proposition not yet commercially proven to potential investors
SMR Deployment EnablersWork In Progress (3)
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
One Page Scope Description Per Element
Integrated Schedule
Focus On First 5 Years
Work Breakdown Structure
Approach To Delivering The SMR Deployment Enablers Project
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
http://www.eti.co.uk/the-role-for-nuclear-within-a-low-carbon-energy-system/
Conclusions from published ETI insights (1) –More in summer 2016 – “preparing to deploy”
© 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
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