S

Slowing Arctic Melting: Beginnings

of a Regional Strategy to Mitigate

Climate Change

John Topping, Founder and President, Climate Institute. A lecture to the Hertog Global Strategy Initiative At Columbia

University

June 13, 2013

Record 400ppm CO2 milestone

– 14th May 2013

Forces Occurring

Together to

Accelerate Stress S Climate change not the only

adverse human or natural

stress affecting ecosystems or

areas in which we live.

S Growing ocean acidification.

S Depletion of fossil aquifers.

S Land degradation.

S Destruction of forests,

especially in the tropical

regions.

Source: Upwell conservation

Attribution: Jeff Masters, Ph.D, Weather Underground (2013)

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reductions

Momentum Gaining on the

Climate Front

S China (the leading greenhouse emitter) —

spurred by air quality, climate and trade competiveness concerns — is moving to institute a greenhouse cap and trade system and national carbon tax, and is now largest investor in renewable energy.

S U.S., historically source of about a third of industrial era anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, seems on a downward trajectory despite impasse in Washington.

S Increased efficiency (in energy use and vehicles), state and city renewable energy incentives, and natural gas for coal substitution are helping drive this trend.

S A draft ANSI voluntary Life Cycle Assessment standard providing the most ambitious standards on the planet may become final in 2014; the standard would value reductions of black carbon and establish an Arctic Regional Warming Indicator.

Global Motivation:

Benefits from Action

S There is growing interest in rich and

poor nations alike in acting to slash

emissions of black carbon and other

substances whose reduction will yield

health and climate benefits.

S Mexico, driven by a public clamor for

climate protection, in June 2012

adopted the most ambitious climate

protection law of any OECD nation.

S Pictured: Tickell Network Climate Theatre. Flor del Bosque Educational Park, Mexico.

Lecture Focus

TARGET: Short-Lived

Climate Forcers & Regions

S Double down on growing interest by

focusing efforts on black carbon and

the Arctic.

S Other SLCFs: tropospheric ozone

forming compounds and methane

S Other regions near tipping point: the

Himalayas- Tibetan Plateau, the

Andes and Amazonian Basin, and

Antarctica.

Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR)

S Effort of the Climate Institute, other US

and international NGOs and climate

and forestry scientists to increase

incentives for reduction of SLCFs.

S Seeks to slow the precipitous loss of

Arctic sea ice that could rescramble

weather and ocean circulation patterns.

S Establish a precedent for regionally

focused strategies to minimize climate

disruption in other vulnerable regions.

Short-Lived Climate Forcers

S Amazon

S Amazon land and conversion forest loss may push to point of dieback. Andes may be affected both by warming and SLCF deposition. Could mean loss of water resources for tens of millions.

S Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau

S Water resources for at least a sixth

of humanity could be imperiled.

S Decisive global action targeting

SLCFs the next best step to bide

time for the regions in danger of

irreversible damage.

S Increased efficiency, non or low-

carbon fuel sources.

S Antarctic

S Parts warming rapidly with potential for adding to sea level rise from melting of glaciers in Greenland and other regions and warming of upper layers of ocean.

Global Action on Short-Lived

Climate Forcers

Climate and Clean Air Coalition

S Rapid growth of CCAC action on black

carbon,

methane, hydrofluorocarbons and tropo

spheric ozone that together produce as

much an effect on climate change as

CO2.

S Reductions will often yield not only

climate benefits but enhanced human

health (BC), and sometimes economic

(recovery for energy of leaking methane)

or safety (harvesting of methane from

coal mines).

Challenges

S Barrier to be overcome: failure of

Kyoto Protocol-based trading

systems to incentivize

these reductions.

Tropospheric Ozone

S Formed as a secondary product of other emissions

S By oxidation of methane, CO, and VOCs in the presence of NOx

S Once formed, lasts 20 – 24 days

S Warming Effect is ~ 0.3 W/m2

S 18% of CO2 effect

Methane

S Atmospheric concentrations rising after several years of stability

S Lasts 12 years in atmosphere

S Warming Effect is ~ 0.86 W/m2

S Just over 50% of CO2 effect

S Win-Win opportunities to reduce methane

Black Carbon (Soot)

S Dark-colored type of aerosol / particulate matter (PM)

S Absorbs sunlight and heat

S Stays in atmosphere for only 1 – 2 weeks

S Atmospheric Warming Effect is 0.44 – 0.9 W/m2

S 28 – 55% of CO2 effect

S Decreased snow albedo in Arctic and Himalayas

S Enormous regional increase in warming effect

S Globally averaged, is an additional 0.1 – 0.2 W/m2

S Harmful to human respiratory health

Regional Effects

• ―Tropospheric ozone and BC snow albedo effect contribute

substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the

Arctic‖ - James Hansen et al. 2005

• Arctic Warming Since 1890 (Shindell et al. 2009)

• Black carbon: 0.5 – 1.4˚C

• Trop. Ozone: 0.2 – 0.4˚C

•

Shindell estimates that combined

sulfate decrease and BC increase

caused 75% of direct Arctic

warming over past 30 years

Benefits from Black Carbon

Reduction

S Atmospheric loading and warming influence will drop as

emissions drop

S Acute decrease in Arctic warming

S Reducing certain BC emissions will result in:

S Reduced indoor air pollution, which kills 1.9M annually

S Reduced outdoor air pollution, which kills 0.8M annually

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Black Carbon

Tropospheric Ozone

21st C Methane

Other GHGs

20th Century GHG Emissions

21st Century CO2 only

Warming Effect During 21st Century Aggressive Reductions in both GHGs and Black Carbon

Credit: MacCracken 2009

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Near-Term Changes in Warming Effect Black Carbon is Critical to Reducing Near-Term Warming

Business as Usual Aggressive Reductions

in BC and GHGs

Credit: MacCracken 2009

Biomass Burning - Largest

Current Arctic Climate Forcer

S Recent studies indicate that about

75% of light absorbing aerosols

(black and brown carbon)

deposited on Arctic snow and

ice are attributable to crop and grass

burning (Hegg et al, 2010).

S ARCTAS mission found it

contributed 39 % of Arctic black

carbon, 69 % of Arctic methane and

38 % of Arctic carbon monoxide, a

precursor of tropospheric ozone.

(Wedderburn- Bisshop, 2012).

S Agricultural and grassland fires are

responsible for 69 % of Arctic fire

activity with forest and shrubland fires

responsible for 24% (Wedderburn-

Bisshop, 2012).

Biomass Burning - Largest

Current Arctic Climate Forcer

S The lead sources of these emissions in descending order are Russia, Kazakhstan, China,

United States, Canada and Ukraine (Pettus, Clean Air Task Force, 2009).

S Most of these nations have some form of

restrictions on agricultural burning but

enforcement is generally lax, especially in

places such as northeast China where emissions

are most likely to affect the Arctic (Pettus,

2009).

S Potential mitigation strategies might include

increased enforcement of existing rules and

changed seasonality of burning.

Arctic Air Overflights - A Source

of Black Carbon and Other

Climate Warming Emissions

S Beginning in 1998 when Russia

agreed to permit foreign carrier

commercial aviation overflights

this has grown to over 40,000

flights a year with significant

climate forcing effect. Especially

significant is the residence time

of black carbon emitted in the

stratosphere, as much as an order

of magnitude greater than at

ground level (Jacobson et al.

2012)

S Mark Jacobson at Stanford and

colleagues, after an extensive analysis of

trans- Arctic flights, concluded it would

be possible to reduce emissions by as

much as 83 % by rerouting. They project

this could significantly delay loss of

Arctic sea ice with annual costs globally

of about $ 99 million. (Jacobson et al.

2012).

Arctic Air Overflights - A Source of

Black Carbon and Other Climate

Warming Emissions

S Breakthroughs in early June by members of International Air

Transport Association (IATA) in urging governments to adopt a

single market based system to offset post -2020 growth in aircraft

emissions may be a heartening sign of growing airline receptivity

to climate friendly activity.

Development Related to Arctic

Warming Produces Sizable

Emissions Growth

S Shipping - Volume likely to increase as sea ice melts

S Potential response - Requiring electrostatic precipitators or changed fuel mix to minimize black carbon emissions on both commercial vessels and icebreakers.

S Oil and gas development - Likely to increase, especially in Russia and some other offshore parts of Arctic and near Arctic.

S Potential response - Besides seeking universal provisions to minimize oil spills, encouraging near zero black carbon emissions and zero methane releases.

S Mining - Although a modest source of emissions, mostly in Russia and Canada, there is large potential for growth of mining industry in Greenland with international investors looking to extract iron and rare earths.

Possible Regional

Geoengineering Strategies

S Changing seasonality of icebreaking-

doing less ice breaking in the spring

when it reinforces sea ice loss and

more in the fall.

S Catalyzing natural processes to absorb Arctic

methane-researchers are looking at use of

supplements such as nitrate or sulfate to boost

productivity of methanotrophs.

S Bacteria are responsible for aerobic

methane oxidation; archea are

responsible for anaerobic oxidation.

This might reduce methane release in

Arctic oceans, as well as promote a

more suitable climate for fish

habitation, and therefore for fish farms.

S Sending small ships to disperse sea salt,

forming clouds to raise albedo and reflect

heat- Salter and Latham and a UK

based Arctic Methane Emergency

Group have been the leading advocates

for this strategy.

The Four Crucial Regions

Himalayas Amazonian Rainforest &

Andean Mountains

The Four Crucial Regions

Antarctica The Arctic

South America: Closely

Interconnected Ecosystems

Amazon Rainforest

S The Amazonian Rainforest is the greatest treasure trove of biodiversity on the planet.

S It is disappearing rapidly due to land conversion for cattle farms, mining and small farmers.

S Brazilian Scientists (Simoes & Evangelista) report that emissions from burning for land clearing in the Amazon, especially for cattle farms, may be producing as much as half of black carbon deposition in the Antarctic.

Andes Mountains

S Glaciers in the mountains provide water supplies for tens of millions in South America and hydropower for millions.

S Rapid glacial melt imperils this water supply.

S Efforts are underway to install cleaner cook stoves in many Andean communities and reduce black carbon emissions.

Antarctica

S Glacial thinning:

Glaciers in Antarctica contain

about 70% of all the fresh water

on Earth; if all were to

melt, global sea levels would rise

well over 60 meters- more than

200 feet.

Antarctica

S There is a modest net loss now from Antarctica, about 150 cubic kilometers each year (Hansen, 2007) but if this accelerates it could add significantly to global sea level rise.

S Deposition of significant quantities of black carbon from fires in South America and Africa has been detected in Antarctica and linked to agricultural burning. No linkage has yet been done on their role in ice loss.

S Although Antarctica is the coldest

region on Earth, some portions in the

Antarctic Peninsula and West

Antarctic are among the most

rapidly warming parts of the planet.

S Most Antarctic ice loss seems

attributable to interaction with

warming waters of the Southern

Ocean more than to warming on the

land.

The Himalayas

Himalayas – Tibetan Plateau

S Emissions of black carbon,

especially from diesel transport and

cook stoves, appear as great a factor

as overall global warming in

spurring glacial melting.

S Indian Supreme Court has mandated

that in public transport compressed

natural gas vehicles replace current

diesel and other vehicles.

S Provides water supplies for about

one of every six humans on earth.

Rapid glacial melt underway that

may reduce water availability.

S Project Surya seeks to reduce black

carbon emissions, save lives and

reduce climate forcing through

replacement of cook stoves and

kerosene lanterns with cleaner

alternatives http://www.projectsur

ya.org/

S

The Arctic’s Role

And Functions of the Arctic Climate Action Registry

Climate Change in the Arctic

In September 2012, a new record level of Ice

melt was recorded. At this rate the Arctic could

be ice-free in summer by the end of this decade.

Economist, August 28 2012

Climate Change in the Arctic

S Melting of the Greenland ice sheet, contributing to global sea level rise

Scientists at NASA first thought satellite

readings were a mistake after images

showed 97% surface melt over four days

Significant erosion, threatening villages

Collapse of whole ecosystems

Melting of permafrost and release of trapped methane hydrates

Chief Causes

S Global Warming

CO2 and other Kyoto GHGs

S Arctic Regional Contribution (50-70%)

Methane

Black Carbon

Tropospheric Ozone

Methane Hydrate Pulse 5,000 billion tons trapped ~

all CO2 and CH4 combined

Climate Change Impacts

S Displacement of villages due to sea level rise and melting permafrost

S Public infrastructure damage

S Ecosystem impacts (e.g., new pests, migratory species)

S Food security (e.g., fisheries, subsistence hunting, melting ice cellars)

S Human health issues (e.g., disease, asthma)

ALASKA

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has reported:

S Almost all of Alaska’s 200+ villages have been affected by flooding and erosion, with 4 requiring relocation

S 31 villages face imminent threats

S 12 of the 31 villages are exploring relocation options

Climate Change Impacts

Locations of Arctic

Indigenous Peoples

Significance for

International Security

S Accelerated glacial melting in

Greenland and Antarctica could

enhance projected sea level rise,

threatening the US, other coastal

nations and island states.

S Potential unpredictable effects on

weather patterns and world agriculture

at loss of year round Arctic Sea Ice.

Arctic Climate Action

Registry (ACAR)

S An effort to incentivize reductions of emissions of soot, methane and tropospheric ozone forming compounds.

S No other organization in the world is taking action fast enough to save the Arctic. The Arctic Climate Action Registry will certify projects that immediately slow the meltdown in the Arctic using metrics defined in the new Draft American (ANSI) Greenhouse Gas Accounting Standard.

S The Arctic Climate Action Registry Network is a social network consisting of scientists, business leaders, government officials, educators, and consumers. Its goal is to help members communicate about taking action to save the Arctic.

S If successful, could be adapted and extended to the Antarctic, Amazon-Andes and Himalayas.

ACAR Vision, Mission

and Strategy

S VISION: Slow down and ultimately end climate change in the Arctic region and, in so doing, slow down climate change around the globe.

S MISSION: Mitigate greenhouse gases and other climate forcers affecting the Arctic region.

S STRATEGY: Stimulate projects and activities in support of our mission, based on incentives and market mechanisms, with measurable progress within the decade.

ACAR Participants

TRANSACTIONAL

REGISTRY

Managed by the

American Carbon Registry

Based on Arctic Climate Metrics

from LEO-SCS-002

ARCTIC CLIMATE

PROTECTION NETWORK

Companies

Government agencies

Institutions

Individuals

ARCTIC CLIMATE

FOOTPRINT &

3rd PARTY OFFSET

VERIFICATION

SCS Global Services

ACAR HOME

The Climate Institute

Steering Committee

Current Steering

Committee Members

Charles Bayless, Chair, Chairmen of the Board Essential Power

Luis Roberto Acosta, President, Instituto del Clima

Senator Heherson Alvarez, Commissioner for Climate Change, Philippines; Former Philippine Secretary of the Department of Agrarian Reform and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources

Steve Apfelbaum, President, Applied Ecological Services

Paul Bartlett, Environmental Scientist

Robert W. Corell, Principal, Global Environmental Technology Foundation; Chair, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Gary Dodge, Director of Science and Certification, Forest Stewardship Council U.S.

Robert Engelman, President, Worldwatch Institute

Peter A. Globensky, Principal Consultant, BASA; Former CEO, Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment

Current Steering

Committee Members

John Kadyszewski, Director, American Carbon Registry

Stephen Leatherman, Professor and Director of the Laboratory for Coastal Research at Florida International University

Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist, The Climate Institute

John Noel, President, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy

Conn Nugent, President, Heinz Center

Ata Qureshi, Team Leader, Asia Climate Study.

Stanley Rhodes, President, Scientific Certification Systems

Terry Root, Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment

Linda Schade, Executive Director, The Black Carbon Reduction Council

Tim Warman, Former Vice President, Climate and Energy, National Wildlife Federation

Carol Werner, Executive Director, Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Daniel Wildcat, Professor, Haskell Indian Nations University; Founder, Indigenous Peoples Climate Change Working Group

ACAR Registry Project

Opportunities

Examples Shipping – Equipping ships with technology to capture black carbon, and using or purchasing turbine-powered ships.

Agricultural Burning - Reduce and change seasonality

Airlines – Reduced emissions from airline fleets, e.g., some rerouting of flights, increased fuel efficiency.

Pollution Prevention –Stack emissions captured at electricity production and other industrial facilities.

Methane Capture – Methane capture for energy generation.

Natural Cycle Enhancement – Micronization of sea water to help cool the region, i.e., ships generating spray to promote cooling.

Some Encouraging Trends

U.S. Greenhouse Gases

S Total emissions levels have

dropped almost to 1994 levels due

largely to increased efficiency

and greater use of renewables.

S Should continue by a substitution

in U.S. of natural gas for coal in

the utility sector.

S To maximize climate benefits of

coal to gas switch, it is crucial to

minimize methane leaks

from natural gas system.

Energy Use & Emissions

U.S. Position: Opportunity

S Leverage our good fortune as

soon-to-be world’s leading energy

producer; ensure continued

prosperity and catalyze effective

national and international

response to climate change.

S In natural gas sector: hold

overall methane leakage from

natural gas extraction,

transmission and distribution

to below 1%.

S How can our energy planning

and foreign policy promote

results that will sustain our

national economy, reduce risk of

climate disruption, and meld

into climate protection

responses, benefits to human

health and food production?

U.S. Opportunities

S Wide political support here. April 22,

2009, joint sponsorship of successful

legislation by Senators Inhofe, Carper,

Boxer and Kerry to mandate U.S. EPA

to develop options for black carbon

reductions here and abroad.

S Encourage special focus on emission

reductions in regions such as Arctic,

where we may be at near

irreversible climate tipping points.

S Reduce federal and state

regulatory barriers to energy recycling

(cogeneration).

S Promote aggressive international

attack on Short- Lived Climate

Forcers that affect climate and human

health and where benefits can be

realized soon.

China Moving Forward in

Climate Protection

S As Ramez Naam noted in Slate May 8, 2013 China now seems determined to be a

world leader in climate protection:

1. Moving forward with a cap and

trade plan in seven regions Including

provinces of Guangdong and Hubei

and cities of Beijing, Shanghai,

Tianjin, Chongqing and Shenzhen,

with a goal of linking by 2020 to a

national carbon market.

2. Planning to institute a tax on CO2

emissions, as early as 2015 or 2016.

China Moving Forward in

Climate Protection

3. Investing $65 billion on renewable energy in 2012,

compared with $35 billion in the US the same year.

4. China now produces over half of the global

production of solar panels with the US now

producing less than 10 percent.

Significantly, driven by both climate and air quality

concerns, China appears to be considering the

integration of valuation for reduction of emissions of

black carbon and other short- lived climate forcers

into their cap and trade plans.

A chef in China's Shandong

province removes chicken

from a solar cooker

A Region Specific

Mitigation Strategy

S Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau: rapid glacial melt imperils the water supplies of

much of humanity; mitigation action (cleaner cook stoves and transport

systems) can avert hundreds of thousands of air pollution deaths annually.

S Latin America: glacial melt in the Andean region and drying out of key

agricultural lands in South America is spurred by burning and land

conversion.

S ACAR to leverage growing public interest in slowing climatic disruption in

the regions closest to a tipping point, corporate interest in averting climatic

chaos and voluntary emission reduction incentive systems to slow loss of sea

ice and glacial melting.

ACAR TARGET: Black carbon, ozone forming compounds and methane

Climate Change

and the

International Stage

Thank you! Questions/Comments?

Acknowledgments: Principally Humiun Miah and Jillian Jordan, thanks also to Michael MacCracken, John - Michael Cross, Matt Vetter, Christopher Philipp, and Linda Brown. www.climate.org & Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR) at http://www.climate.org/programs/acar/index.html