skynet is coming!
DESCRIPTION
Yes, it really is! Computer scientists around the world are teaching machines how to learn, how to think. You already use machines that are pretty smart, e.g. your camera which recognizes faces, your phone that you can converse with. Soon, you will be using a car which drives by itself. Come to this fun (and no-math-involved) talk to understand how these cool technologies work, and where all this is taking us. I promise several ‘Wow, this is amazing’ moments!TRANSCRIPT
Skynet is coming!Deepak Azad
M.Sc. Student, Computer ScienceJunior Fellows Speaker Series
St. John’s College UBCImage: http://www.itweapons.com/tedblog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/skynet.jpgFeb 19, 2013
Wait… What is Skynet?
Image: http://www.coverbrowser.com/image/bestselling-movies-2006/1498-1.jpg
Overview
• Do we know how we think?• Machines that can think• How do they work?• Implications for mankind
Do we know how we see?– airplane.mov– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubNF9QNEQLA
Image: http://bibledaily.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/eye.jpg
Do we know how we think?• The doctor has good news and bad news
• Bad news: You have tested positive for HIV, and that the test is 99% accurate (i.e., the probability of testing positive given that you have the disease is 0.99, as is the probability of testing negative given that you don’t have the disease).
• Good news: Only 1 in 10,000 people are HIV-positive
• How worried should you be?
Image:http://images.sodahead.com/polls/001878683/4411521534_thinking20web20pic_answer_3_xlarge.jpeg
Do we know how we think?• I have some money in my pocket and I will give $100 to the
person(s) who ask the best question(s), as judged by me.
• How many of you think that someone here will get $100?
Image:http://greatlakescustomslaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/pocket-full-of-money.jpg
Let’s do the math• Let's say 1,000,000 people took the test. • Number of people who have the disease = 100 (Remember 1 in 10,000)• Number of people who tested positive AND who have the disease
= 0.99 * 100 = 99 • Number of people who tested positive BUT did not have the disease =
0.01 * 999900 = 9999• Probability that you actually have the disease = 99 / (99+9999) = 0.0098
Only 0.98%
http://womenonthefence.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/DontWorryBeHappy.jpg
When should you worry?• Let's say you underwent another test which is also 99% accurate and you
tested positive.
= 49.5%
http://drmichaelroth.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/worry.gif
If all your friends jumped off a bridge…
http://xkcd.com/1170/
Lesson
posterior = likelihood x prioror
new knowledge = data x old knowledge
• This is known as Bayes’ rule
http://skepticism-images.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/images/jreviews/Thomas_Bayes.jpg
Lessons
• We only ever see a tiny bit
• We are pretty good at learning from data
• We can recognize patterns quite well
Autonomous Car
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE
Face Recognition
Pedestrian detection
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_wMyUEeIzQ
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
• http://www.sentiment140.com/search?hl=en&query=Toronto%20Maple%20leafs
• http://www.sentiment140.com/search?hl=en&query=Vancouver%20Canucks
• http://www.sentiment140.com/search?hl=en&query=Calgary%20flames
Microsoft Kinect
http://boygeniusreport.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/kinect-family-tv.jpg?w=942http://cdn.pocket-lint.com/images/wqZT/harry-potter-microsoft-kinect-xbox-360-1.jpg?20110712-094919
Google Glass
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSnB06um5r4
Source: http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~nando/340-2012/lectures/l1.pdf
How does all this work ?
Hours of Sun
Temperature
Formally
Equation of line :
A little more complicated…
Hours of Sun
Temperature
Using prior knowledge and dealing with uncertanity
Watson playing Jeapordy
Images: http://hypervocal.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/IMG_4219.jpghttp://www.asesoriae.mx/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/jeopardy12_full.jpg
Implications: Will machines take over?
Images: http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/5900/wallecaptainmccreaauto.jpghttp://www.604republic.com/gocms/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/halglados1.jpghttp://www.ameinfo.com/images/news/3/7853-iRobot.jpg
Implications: Will we need to work?
Image: http://culturemediasociety.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/wall-e.png?w=625
Ethics and Morality
• Doctors and Insurance companies use the same tools – one to cure and one to deny insurance
• Should people be allowed to drive?– People’s freedom vs reliable machines