skill assessment for coupled physical-biological models of marine systems daniel r. lynch dennis j....
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models
of Marine Systems
Daniel R. Lynch
Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr.
Francisco E. Werner
Sponsors:
NOAA - CSCOR
NSF - CMG
Prepared for:
U.S. GLOBEC Pan-Regional Synthesis Workshop
27 November - 1 December 2006
NCAR, Boulder CO
![Page 2: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
OverviewGoals
Assess the state-of-the-art
Provide recommendations in support of Agency programs
Deliverables
Special volume of peer-reviewed contributions
Report to NOAA summarizing progress
![Page 3: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Topical Organization
Scientific
Carbon Cycle
Harmful Algal Blooms
Ecosystem Dynamics and Fisheries
Estuarine/Coastal Water Quality
Cross -Cutting Themes
Skill Vocabulary
Metrics
Data Assimilation
![Page 4: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Participation
Apex Contributions, Invited
GLOBECECOHABSABJGOFSEuropean Shelf Seas
Contributions
18 -- 30 papers42 et al -- 55 et al people
![Page 5: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
TimelineJanuary '06 Invitations out
July '06 Authors' Workshop 1Vocabulary Rev. 1Working Groups: DA, Metrics
Dec ‘06 Working Group Reports to Editors
Feb ‘07 Vocabulary Rev. 2 + Working Group Report Distribution
March '07 Authors’ Workshop 2
April ‘07 MS Submission; Peer Review Start
April ‘08 Final Copy to PrinterReport goes to NOAA
![Page 6: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Peer-Reviewed Publication
Journal of Marine Systems
Coordination
3 Community Pieces
Vocabulary
Metrics
Data Assimilation
http://www-nml.dartmouth. edu/
Publications/internal_reports/
NML-06-Skill/
![Page 7: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Vocabulary
![Page 8: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Vocabulary
The first Bloom!
![Page 9: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
55 GLOBEC Contributions
Dartmouth
WHOI
UNH
UNC
Dalhousie
Rutgers
NMFS - WH
NMFS - Narragansett
NMFS - Sandy Hook
DFO - Halifax
DFO - St Andrew’s
DFO - Victoria
Reused in ECOHAB, SAB, EIRE, SWVI, NERRS, CICEET, RMRP, SeaGrant
,
![Page 10: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Skill: Conformance to Truth • State of Model and Truth
• Processes - Internal Dynamics
• Modes of Expression - Properties, Features• Equilibria• Instabilities• Spectra• Covariance• Population Structure
The Realm of Error
![Page 11: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Skill Assessment
• Judgement about Skill
• Future, Past
The realm of Mistake
![Page 12: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
What is Truth?
![Page 13: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
What is Truth?
Data Model
d m
Misfit
![Page 14: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
What is Truth?
Data Model
Truth real but unknowable
Errors unknowable
Prediction a credible blend:
Data + Model
Blend: Invokes statistics of d , m
Prediction Error: blend of d , m
Misfit: = d - m
d m
Misfit
Prediction
p
![Page 15: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
What is Truth?
Data Model
d m
Misfit
Prediction
p
Skill:Misfits
Small, Noisy
Deduced Inputs Small, Smooth
Features Credible
Truth real but unknowable
Errors unknowable
Prediction a credible blend:
Data + Model
Invokes statistics of d , m
Prediction Error: blend of d , m
Misfit: = d - m
![Page 16: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Features Ex: a Retentive Gyre
• Physical Features– Is there a gyre?
– Size?
– Location?
– Timing?
– Residence Time?
– Entrance Paths?
– Exit Paths?
• Relative to Organism– Cohort
– Density
– Scale
– Age / Stage
– Onset / Demise
– Vital Rates
Bloom!
![Page 17: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Misfit MetricsQuadratic Form
= W
W = Cov-1()
= d+
m
Importance of
Data Error
Model Error (Unmodeled part of Truth)
“Dictatorship of Measurement”
![Page 18: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Regularization
Data Sparse --> Indeterminacy
= W p* Wp p
Importance of Prior
= W p* Wp p
Joint estimation of and p
Regularization adds bias toward prior
BPE - Best Prior Estimate
BPE is PDG --> small, p small
![Page 19: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Post-Optimality Judgement
• Beyond Misfit
• Model - Truth
• Criterion?
![Page 20: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Causality
Prior / Posterior
Logical
Previous / Subsequent
Temporal
Forward / Inverse
Influence in Classic Initial/Boundary Value Problem
![Page 21: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
StatisticsDistributions by Moments
Value of Moments: mean, variance, …
Ensemble within which Moments occur
Ex: 3 different ensembles
all previous realizations of a field
“Field variability”
all possible observations of this field
“Instrument Error”, “Noise”
all possible estimates of this field
“Inverse Noise”
![Page 22: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Data and State Estimation
![Page 23: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Future
(Now)
Past
Time
![Page 24: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
Hindcast
All Data
![Page 25: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
Hindcast
All Data
![Page 26: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
HindcastAll Data
Model‘Data Product’
![Page 27: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
Hindcast
Data Used
Bell
![Page 28: Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models of Marine Systems Daniel R. Lynch Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr. Francisco E. Werner Sponsors: NOAA](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070401/56649f1a5503460f94c2fb5a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
Hindcast
Data Used
Bell Publication