size optimization of wind photovoltaic systems
DESCRIPTION
SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS. Dr. Fatih Onur HOCAO ĞLU Afyon Kocatepe University Electrical Eng. Dept. Outline. Solar Radiation Data Analysis Wind Speed Data Analysis Load Forecasting Size Optimization and System Modeling. Solar Radiation Data Analysis. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC
SYSTEMSDr. Fatih Onur HOCAOĞLUAfyon Kocatepe University
Electrical Eng. Dept.
![Page 2: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline• Solar Radiation Data Analysis• Wind Speed Data Analysis• Load Forecasting• Size Optimization and System
Modeling
![Page 3: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Solar Radiation Data Analysis
![Page 4: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Solar Radiation Data Analysis
R R2
x44 – x34 0.911 0.830
x44 – x24 0.894 0.799
x44 – x14 0.898 0.806
x44 – x43 0.938 0.879
x44 – x42 0.807 0.651
x44 – x14 0.630 0.397
x44 – x33 0.870 0.760
x44 – x22 0.740 0.548
11 1
1
n
m mn
x xRad
x x
![Page 5: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Solar Radiation Data Analysis
![Page 6: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Solar Radiation Data Analysis
![Page 7: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Solar Radiation Data Analysis
0 5 10 15 20 250
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
![Page 8: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Optimal Coefficient Linear Prediction Filters
,i jx , 1i jx
1,i jx 1, 1 ?i jx
1, 1 1 ( 1) 2 ( 1) 3ˆ . . .i j ij i j i jx x a x a x a
1, 1 1, 1 1, 1ˆi j i j i jx x
2
2 2
m n
iji j
![Page 9: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Optimal Coefficient Linear Prediction Filters
1 111 12 13
21 22 23 2 2
31 32 33 3 3
a rR R RR R R a rR R R a r
1 2 3
0a a a
1a R r
![Page 10: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Optimal Coefficient Linear Prediction Filters
x11
x22 ... ..xm 1 . . . xm n
x12 . . . . . x1n..
1 D -Filt e r 1
x11 x12
x22 ... ..xm 1 . . . xm n
. . . . . x1n..
x11 x12
x22 ... ..xm 1 . . . xm n
. . . x1n..
x11
x21 x22 ... ..xm 1 . . . xm n
. . . . . x1n x11
x21 x22 .
. . . . . x1n x11
x21 x22 . . . .
x41xm 1 . . . xm n
. . . . . x1n
x13
x31 x32 . . . . . . .xm 1 . . . xm n
x31
1 D -Filt e r 4
1 D -Filt e r 2
1 D -F ilt e r 5
1 D -Filt e r 3
1 D -Filt e r 6
![Page 11: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Optimal Coefficient Linear Prediction Filters
x11
x21
x12
x22 ... ..xm 1 . . . xm n
. . . . . x1n
x2 2x21
x13
.
. .
.xm 1 . . . xm n
x11 x12 . x1n
2 D -Filte r 2 2 D -Filt e r 3
x21
x12
.
. .
.xm 1 . . . xm n
x11 . x1n
2 D -Filt e r 1
x22
2
1 1
1 ( ( , ) ( , ))N M
i j
RMSE Rad i j Rad i jNM
![Page 12: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Testing the Performance of 2D Approach using OCLPF
![Page 13: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Novel Analytical Modeling Approach for Solar Radiation Data
![Page 14: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Novel Analytical Modeling Approach for Solar Radiation Data
![Page 15: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Novel Analytical Modeling Approach for Solar Radiation Data
2 2( )( ) x b cg x ae
2 2 2 21 1 2 2( ) ( )
1 2( ) x b c x b cg x a e a e
![Page 16: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Novel Analytical Modeling Approach for Solar Radiation Data
a b c
D1 285.6000 12.9500 2.7280D2 226.7000 13.4000 2.8410D3 301.8000 12.9500 2.7710D4 235.1000 12.1700 2.8930D5 201.1000 14.5600 1.8690D6 229.7000 12.7800 3.0010D7 134.3000 13.2700 3.2470D8 122.9000 12.9200 3.4460D9 298.9000 12.1100 2.8850
D10 103.1000 12.3000 3.3970
![Page 17: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Novel Analytical Modeling Approach for Solar Radiation Data
1 Source Gauss 2 Source Gauss
D1 0.9907 0.9981D2 0.982 0.9971D3 0.9881 0.9986
D4 0.9596 0.9949D5 0.9242 0.9974D6 0.9136 0.9889D7 0.9293 0.9907D8 0.9561 0.9964D9 0.9882 0.9899D10 0.9155 0.9978
![Page 18: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Novel Analytical Modeling Approach for Solar Radiation Data
![Page 19: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Novel Analytical Modeling Approach for Solar Radiation Data
![Page 20: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Novel Analytical Modeling Approach for Solar Radiation Data
1-Source Gauss
2-source Gauss
RMSE 57.20 105.25
![Page 21: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
A novel modeling approach using extraterrestrial solar radiations
![Page 22: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Extraterrestrial Formulation
2sin( ) / 24I C R
sin( ) sin( )sin( ) cos( )cos( )cos( )L D L D h
15( 12)ch h
![Page 23: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
2D Representation of Extraterrestrial Data
![Page 24: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Modeling Solar Radiations from Extraterrestrial Radiations
![Page 25: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Modeling Solar Radiations from Extraterrestrial Radiations
![Page 26: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Model: Markov Processes0 1ijp
1
1ijj
p
11 12 13 1
21 22 23 2
1 2 3
. . .. . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .. . .
n
n
n n n nn
p p p pp p p p
A
p p p p
![Page 27: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach
, 1,2,...,ijij
ijj
mp i j n
m
![Page 28: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach0.61 0.29 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.18 0.47 0.28 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.04 0.20 0.46 0.23 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.01 0.05 0.20 0.45 0.22 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.06 0.26 0.42 0.20 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.28 0.41 0.18 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.29 0.39 0.21 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09 0.30 0.38 0.17 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.12 0.33 0.39 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.27 0.37 0.08 0.05 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.09 0.23 0.41 0.09 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.31 0.08 0.31 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
![Page 29: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Syntetic generation of wind speeddata
![Page 30: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ......
0.00 0.61 0.18 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ......
0.00 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.14 0.06 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ......
0.00 0.12 0.18 0.28 0.23 0.11 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 ......
0.00 0.05 0.11 0.15 0.23 0.19 0.12 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 ......
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.18 0.30 0.16 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 ......
0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.28 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.01 ......
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.20 0.25 0.18 0.11 0.05 0.02 ......
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.23 0.25 0.13 0.10 0.05 ......
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.22 0.25 0.18 0.07 ......
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.13 0.22 0.23 0.16 ......
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.15 0.22 0.21 ......
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......
![Page 31: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach
1
k
ik ijj
P p
ikP is transition probability in the ith row at the kth state
![Page 32: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach0.61 0.90 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.18 0.64 0.92 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.04 0.23 0.69 0.92 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.01 0.06 0.26 0.72 0.93 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.06 0.32 0.75 0.95 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.36 0.77 0.95 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09 0.38 0.76 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.12 0.42 0.80 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.17 0.50 0.89 0.97 1.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.22 0.49 0.86 0.95 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.27 0.50 0.91 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.31 0.62 0.69 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
![Page 34: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach
![Page 35: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach
![Page 36: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach
![Page 37: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach
Observed Data Generated Data from Model-1
Generated Data from Model-2
Min 0.00 0.02 0.00
Max 12.47 11.44 12.77
Mean 3.52 3.16 3.61
Median 3.35 2.95 3.47
Std 2.11 1.91 2.02
![Page 38: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Wind Speed Modeling using Markov Approach
0
5
10
15
20
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17
Wind Speed (m/s)
Prob
abili
ty (%
)
Observed data Generated data from Model-1
Generated data from Model-2
![Page 39: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Load Forecasting• İt is of vital importance to forecast
the possible load that the system will meet for proper size determination.
• Once the load forecasted, the alteration curve of energy needs must be obtained.
• In general the resulation of this curve is in hours.
![Page 40: SIZE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/568161dc550346895dd1eade/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Size Optimization and System Modeling• Open the pdf File for details