THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION

African Futures and DriversMore Important or More Impoverished?

Greg Mills

Six DriversPeopleGrowth and DifferentiationDemocracy and ConflictResourcesFoodCompetitiveness and Technology

DRIVER ONE: People

4

SSA Population: 1950-2050

19501960

19701980

19902000

20102020

20302040

20500

0.5

1

1.5

2

1.4 Billion in 2025

(Bill

ions

)

Source: United Nations

Some facts worth pondering … - Between 1950 and 2050, Asia’s population will have

grown by a factor of 3.7. Africa’s population, from 2000 to 2100, will grow by a factor of 5.18.

- Growth rates are driven by lifespan increases and birth-rates (average is 4.9 children per woman 2005-2010).

- Eg. Tanzania: 45 million people today; 2100, projected 276 million. Nigeria: 160m today, one billion by 2100.

- Just 56 percent of Africans are at working-age. Dependency ratios will improve radically.

- A demographic dividend is possible.- One in four young people will, by 2025, be from SSA.

6

The Urbanization Phenomenon

Source: United Nations

1950 1975 2000 2025 20500

0.5

1

1.5

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Total Population % Urban

Billi

ions

19601962

19641966

19681970

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

African Per Capita Income, Constant (2000) US$

8

UPSIDE DOWNSIDEPEACE DIVIDEND RISING INEQUALITYBETTER GOVERNANCE SMALL MIDDLE-CLASSPOVERTY DOWN LOW SAVINGSDIFFERENTIATION POOR

INFRASTRUCTURE

9

DRIVER TWO:Growth & Differentiation

Much has been achieved –- 40+ democracies- Range of donors and allies- Governance improved - Growth over 5%- More honest inward scrutiny- Commodities revival …

Differentiation important phenomenon

Feb-0

2Jul

-02

Dec-02

May-03

Oct-03

Mar-04

Aug-0

4Jan

-05Jun

-05

Nov-05

Apr-0

6

Sep-0

6

Feb-0

7Jul

-07

Dec-07

May-08

Oct-08

Mar-09

Aug-0

9Jan

-10Jun

-10

Nov-10

Apr-1

1

Sep-1

1

Feb-1

20

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

African Exports Track Commodity Prices

Africa total exports (USD milion)Commodity prices (CRB, 1967=100, Right scale))

70+% African exports still oil & other minerals

DRIVER THREE:Democracy & Conflict

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050

5

10

15

20

25 Sub-Saharan African Conflicts

DRIVER FOUR: Food

‘A hungry man is an angry

man’.

Raila Odinga

Angola Ethiopia Niger

Benin Gabon Nigeria

Botswana Gambia Sao Tome and Principe

Burkina Faso Ghana Senegal

Burundi Guinea Seychelles

Cameroon Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone

Cape Verde Kenya Somalia

Central African Republic Lesotho South Africa

Chad Liberia Sudan

Comoros Madagascar Swaziland

Congo, Dem Republic of Malawi Tanzania, United Rep of

Congo, Republic of Mali Togo

Côte d’Ivoire Mauritania Uganda

Djibouti Mauritius Zambia

Equatorial Guinea Mozambique Zimbabwe

Eritrea Namibia

Africa’s net food importers

Angola Ethiopia Niger

Benin Gabon Nigeria

Botswana Gambia Sao Tome and Principe

Burkina Faso Ghana Senegal

Burundi Guinea Seychelles

Cameroon Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone

Cape Verde Kenya Somalia

Central African Republic Lesotho South Africa

Chad Liberia Sudan

Comoros Madagascar Swaziland

Congo, Dem Republic of Malawi Tanzania, United Rep of

Congo, Republic of Mali Togo

Côte d’Ivoire Mauritania Uganda

Djibouti Mauritius Zambia

Equatorial Guinea Mozambique Zimbabwe

Eritrea Namibia

Africa’s net food importers: 39 of 49

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000Cereal Yields (Kg/Ha) in Developing Countries

Sub- Saharan Africa

East Asia & Pacific

Latin America & Caribbean

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

1961 2005

Just 20% of Africa’s 400m ha arable land currently cultivated

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Thank you very much