situation analysis: using conceptual models to develop a common

Situation Analysis

Using Conceptual Models to Develop a Common

Understanding of Your Project

** Draft Presentation for Testing Purposes **Version: 18 December 2002

This presentation is based on materials that were initially developed by Foundations of Success and The Nature Conservancy and then modified through joint work.

© 2002 Foundations of Success and The Nature Conservancy

The Enhanced Five-S Framework

Stresses & SourcesStresses & Sources• Critical Threats• Situation Analysis

StrategiesStrategies• Goal & Objectives• Strategic Actions & Tasks

SuccessSuccess• Indicators & Monitoring• Summary Measures

Analyze & CommunicateImplement & Monitor

Adapt and Learn

SystemsSystems• Focal Targets• Rigorous Viability

Why Do We Need a Common Understanding of Our Project?

Members of a project team have: Potentially different goals and objectives Lack of understanding of characteristics

of targets Varying assumptions about what affects

targets Varying knowledge about leverage

opportunities Inconsistent use of terms

What Did We Do Before?

The current “Five-S Approach” helps practitioners to assess the situation at the site. In particular, it: Specifies stresses that affect targets Identifies sources of stress

Why are Improvements Needed?

The current “Five-S” system does not consistently: Specify assumptions regarding chains

of factors affecting targets Identify the ultimate threats driving

the system Present a simple yet comprehensive

picture of the situation at the project site that can be shared with partners

Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis

a. Identify threats and other factors affecting targets.

b. Link targets, threats, and other factors in a chain of causation and/or conceptual model.

c. Prioritize the threats you will address.

What is a Conceptual Model?

A diagram of a set of relationships between certain factors and the targets. A good conceptual model: 1. Presents a picture of the situation at the project site2. Shows assumed linkages between factors3. Shows both direct and indirect threats4. Presents only relevant factors5. Is based on sound information6. Results from a team effort

1. Presents a Picture of the Situationat the Project Site

Relationship

Factor

ActionBio

dive

rsity

inC

onse

rvat

ion

Are

a ConsrvTarget

ConsrvTarget B

iodi

vers

ity in

Con

serv

atio

n A

reaConsrv

Target

Initial Conceptual Model:Initial Conceptual Model:Situation at Site Prior to the Project


Factor

Factor

Factor

ConsrvTarget B

iodi

vers

ity in

Con

serv

atio

n A

rea

Factor

Factor

Factor

ConsrvTarget

Project Conceptual Model:Project Conceptual Model:How Project Will Change Situation

Action

Factor

Factor

Factor

ConsrvTarget

Viability Obj

Bio

dive

rsity

inC

onse

rvat

ion

Are

a

Goal

Factor

Action

Threat Obj

Threat Obj

Factor

Factor

ConsrvTarget

Viability Obj

2. Shows Assumed LinkagesBetween Factors

A Conceptual Model shows how you assume factors relate to one another. For example:

ReefDamageSiltationDeforest-

ationErosion& Runoff

leadsto

leadsto

leadsto

leadsto

Coral Reefat Our Site

3. Shows Major Direct and Indirect Threats

Direct Threats = Factors that immediatelyimpact the target condition.- Anchor damage- Sedimentation

Indirect Threats = Factors that underlie or lead to the direct threats.- Need for cash- Economic crises

4. Presents Only Relevant Factors(Modeling is both a Science and an Art)




leadsto

leadsto

leadsto

leadsto

ExcessRainfall

ClimatePatterns Sunspots





leadsto

leadsto

leadsto

leadsto

USATimber

Demand

CaliforniaHousingStarts

Successof MovieBusiness

Emergenceof New Sex

Symbols

WorldTimberPrices

ExcessRainfall

ClimatePatterns Sunspots


5. Is Based on Sound Information

Existing Info = Data that have already been collected for some other purpose than designing and monitoring your project

Primary Info = Data that you specifically collect while designing and monitoring your project

6. Results from a Team Effort

An Example of a Conceptual Model


Cos

umne

s R

iver

Wat

ersh

ed B

iodi

vers

ity


UpperFloodplainChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity



UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Fire supression

Forestry

Conversion toagriculture

Natural flooding cyclefrom river to floodplain

Water levelsin river

Siltation



UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Water tablelevels

Surface waterdiversions

Fire supression

Forestry




Siltation



UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Water tablelevels


Groundwaterpumping

Overappropriationof surface water

Fire supression

Forestry




Siltation



UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Water tablelevels


Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping


Fire supression

Forestry




Siltation



UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Water tablelevels


Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping


Housingdevelopments

Agriculturalpractices

Fire supression

Forestry




Siltation



UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic sppLogging practices

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Water tablelevels


Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping


Housingdevelopments


Fire supression

Forestry




Altered fire regime

Siltation


UpperFloodplain

Levees (streamchannelization)

ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed


LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

“Enlightened”agency policy

Water tablelevels


Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping


Housingdevelopments


Fire supression

Forestry



Precipitation


Altered fire regime

Siltation


UpperFloodplain


ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed


LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

Rats

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Bullfrogs


Cowbirds

Water tablelevels


Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping


Housingdevelopments


Fire supression

Forestry



Precipitation


Altered fire regime

Siltation

The Model in “Five-S” Terminology

UpperFloodplain


ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed


LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

Rats

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Bullfrogs


Cowbirds

Water tablelevels


Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping


Housingdevelopments


Fire supression

Forestry



Precipitation


Altered fire regime

Siltation


UpperFloodplain


ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed


LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

NativeAmphibians

Rats

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Bullfrogs


Cowbirds

Water tablelevels


Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping


Housingdevelopments


Fire supression

Forestry



Precipitation


Altered fire regime

Siltation

UpperFloodplain


ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed


LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

Rats

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Bullfrogs


Cowbirds

Water tablelevels


Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping


Housingdevelopments


Fire supression

Forestry


Removeegg masses

Obtaineasements

Purchaseland

Promote watersaving practices


Lobby state govtfor incentives forlow water crops

Precipitation


Breachlevees Obj 3

Obj 2Lobby local govtto limit water use

Altered fire regime

Obj 4a

Obj 4bSiltation

Obj 1

Project Conceptual Model:Project Conceptual Model: How Project Will Change Situation

The Enhanced Five-S Framework for Measuring Conservation Impact

Stresses & SourcesStresses & Sources• Critical Threats• Situation Analysis

StrategiesStrategies• Goal & Objectives• Strategic Actions & Tasks

SuccessSuccess• Indicators & Monitoring• Summary Measures

Analyze & CommunicateImplement & Monitor

Adapt and Learn

SystemsSystems• Focal Targets• Rigorous Viability

Initial Conceptual ModelInitial Conceptual Model

UpperFloodplain


ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed


LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

NativeAmphibians

Rats

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

osum

nes

Riv

er W

ater

shed

Bio

dive

rsity

Bullfrogs


Cowbirds

Water tablelevels


Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping


Housingdevelopments


Fire supression

Forestry



Precipitation


Altered fire regime

Siltation

Conceptual Model Break-Out Session

For your project site: Identify major factors affecting

targets Build an “initial conceptual model”

situation analysis: using conceptual models to develop a common

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