singularity university wiki 2009 a proposed taxonomy for info on the grand challenges and potential...

Singularity University Wiki 2009A Proposed Taxonomy for Info on the Grand Challenges and Potential Exponential Solutions

SU Grad Studies Program 2009 Jul 2009 Mountain View, CA

John M. Smart, FS&F Advisor, Singularity UniversityPresident, Acceleration Studies Foundation

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto © 2008 Accelerating.org

AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

STEEPS – A Basic Foresight Taxonomy

ScienceTechnologyEnvironmentEconomicsPoliticsSocial



STEEPS3 – A More Useful Foresight Taxonomy

ScienceTechnologyEnvironmentEconomicsPoliticsSocial Big – CulturalSocial Medium - OrganizationalSocial Small - Individual



ST7EEPS3 – A Potential Taxonomy of 14 Categories for our 10 SU Tracks

ScienceTechnology 1 - Space and Physical SciencesTechnology 2 - EnergyTechnology 3 - NanotechnologyTechnology 4 - Biotechnology, BioinformaticsTechnology 5 - Medicine, Neurosci & Human EnhancmntTechnology 6 - Networks and Computing SystemsTechnology 7 - AI and RoboticsEnvironmentEconomics, FinancePolitics, Policy, Security, LawSocial Big - Culture, Rights, Ethics/BehaviorSocial Medium – EntrepreneurshipSocial Small – (Individual)



ST7EEPS3 – A Potential Taxonomy for the 10 Tracks, With Split SU Track Categories In Bold

ScienceTechnology 1 - Space and Physical SciencesTechnology 2 - EnergyTechnology 3 - NanotechnologyTechnology 4 - Biotechnology, BioinformaticsTechnology 5 - Medicine, Neurosci & Human EnhancmntTechnology 6 - Networks and Computing SystemsTechnology 7 - AI and RoboticsEnvironmentEconomics, FinancePolitics, Policy, Security, LawSocial Big - Culture, Rights, Ethics/BehaviorSocial Medium – EntrepreneurshipSocial Small – (Individual)



Full ST7EEPS3 – Important Omitted Subjects Added

Science, Complexity, Evolution, and DevelopmentTechnology 1 - Space and Physical SciencesTechnology 2 - Energy, Resources, and AgricultureTechnology 3 - Nanotechnology and ChemistryTechnology 4 - Biotech, Bioinformatics and Public HealthTechnology 5 - Medicine, Neuroscience & Human EnhancementTechnology 6 - Networks and Computing SystemsTechnology 7 - AI and RoboticsEnvironment, Ecosystem Services, Population, & SustainabilityEconomics, Finance, and Global CapitalismPolitics, Policy, Security, Law, Democracy, & Intnat’l RelationsSocial Big – Culture, Rights, Ethics/Behav., Media, Ed., & ReligionSocial Med - Entrepreneurship, Innovation, IP, Mgmt, & Org DevSocial Small - Leadership, Personal Development, and Careers



ST7EEPS3 – Mostly a 1-to-1 Map to SU Track Domains (Two unassigned Tracks are Underlined).

Science, Complexity, Evolution, and DevelopmentTechnology 1 - Space and Physical SciencesTechnology 2 - Energy, Resources, and AgricultureTechnology 3 - Nanotechnology and ChemistryTechnology 4 - Biotechnology, Bioinformatics and Public HealthTechnology 5 - Medicine, Neuroscience & Human EnhancementTechnology 6 - Networks and Computing SystemsTechnology 7 - AI and RoboticsEnvironment, Ecosystem Services, Population, & SustainabilityEconomics, Finance, and Global CapitalismPolitics, Policy, Security, Law, Democracy, and Intnat’l RelationsSocial Big – Culture, Rights, Ethics/Behavior, Media, Ed., ReligionSocial Medium - Entrepreneurship, Innovation, IP, Mgmt, and ODSocial Small - Leadership, Personal Development, and Careers

Proposal: Assign Science to Space & PSAssign Social Small to PLE and/or F&E

Note: FS&F not assigned yet (to come)



Problems & Solutions (P&S) Wiki – Proposed Model (Needs a “Metamodel”)1. Grand Human Problems/Crises/Challenges (4 Pages)

10^6 or less10 Million100 Million10^9 or more

2. Potential Solutions (each written up in STEEPS format) (?? Pages)Science, Complexity, Evolution, and DevelopmentTechnology 1 - Space and Physical SciencesTechnology 2 - Energy, Resources, and AgricultureTechnology 3 - Nanotechnology and ChemistryTechnology 4 - Biotechnology, Bioinformatics and Public HealthTechnology 5 - Medicine, Neuroscience & Human EnhancementTechnology 6 - Networks and Computing SystemsTechnology 7 - AI and RoboticsEnvironment, Ecosystem Services, Population, & SustainabilityEconomics, Finance, and Global CapitalismPolitics, Policy, Security, Law, Democracy, and Intnat’l RelationsSocial Big – Culture, Rights, Ethics/Behavior, Media, Ed., ReligionSocial Medium - Entrepreneurship, Innovation, IP, Mgmt, and ODSocial Small - Leadership, Personal Development, and CareersIntegrated with: Planning, Execution and Foresight Components (TBD)



To Add: Some Simple, Effective Processes to Achieve Interdisciplinarity

Jessica Scorpio’s proposal:– Each Student Writes Up in Their Expertise Track

and Works on Three Other Tracks to write up (in Small Teams)

– Use this process to replace as many (or all) of the six assigned papers as possible (“Create an online resource of lasting value”



P&S Wiki and Knowledge Base (KB) Wiki –Proposed Model

I. P&S Wiki:

1. Grand Human Problems/Crises/Challenges (4 Pages)

2. Potential Solutions (each written in STEEPS format) (?? Pages)(Some of these turn into Team Projects)

II. KB Wiki:

3. STEEPS Knowledge Base (14 Pages)For Each Category:A. Current Knowledge (Wikipedia links, tutorials, etc.)B. Foresight (3 Pages) C. Institutions (1 Page)D. Individuals (1 Page)E. Funding Sources (1 Page)



Foresight Pages – Toward a Futurepedia

3B. Foresight Pages (For each of 14 STEEPS Categories) (Methodologies in Rough Order of Importance)

1. Possible FuturesAlternative Futures (Schools of Thought), Scenarios, and BackcastingComparative Analysis, Competitive Intell., and Horizon ScanningEmerging Issues/Tech Analysis and Weak SignalsVisions, Intuitions, Images, and Artifacts of the FutureWildcards (Low Probability, High +/- Impact Events)

2. Probable FuturesDevel. & Accel. Studies (TINA Trends, Learning Curves, Trend Extrap.)Forecasting, Modeling, and SimulationPredictive Surveys, Delphi, Prediction Markets, Hist. & Anal. of PredictionRisk Assessment, Uncertainty Analysis, and Actuarial ScienceEvolution, Complexity, & Sys. Studies, Critical & Evidence-Based Thinking

3. Preferable Futures (in addition to Solutions Pages)Strat. Planning, Roadmapping, Decision Analysis/Support, Ops ResearchScenario Planning and Strategic ForesightMarket Research, Polls, PR, and Consumer BehaviorDemographics, Sociology, and Ethnographic FuturesCollaboration and Peace/Conflict StudiesCritical (Hidden Motivations) Futures and Causal Layered Analysis



KB Subcategory Pages – Format TBD

STEEPS Knowledge Base (KB) Category: EnvironmentEnvironment Subcategory Pages: Climate Change, etc.What should the subcategory pages look like?Perhaps,

Current KnowledgePossible FuturesProbable FuturesPreferable Futures

Foresight detail info can be entered on specific Subcategory pages (Climate Change, Computational neurobiology, etc.) with links to this info located on the more general, summary-based Category Foresight pages.

Suggest we make the wiki as simple as possible to capture all the important info, but not so simple that fundamental issues and processes are entirely missing.

Still open are any issues of the metamodel (how the wiki fits into any kind of database/knowledge mgmt/visualization system, now or in the future). Anyone want to address that?

Discussion

singularity university wiki 2009 a proposed taxonomy for info on the grand challenges and potential...

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