sigmet for turbulence and icing h. puempel, wmo · 30.10.1999 afternoon flight 500 m x 500 m grid...
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SIGMET for Turbulence and IcingH. Puempel, WMO
• General Guidelines• Useful sources of information• Scientific background• Feedback and continous improvement
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• Feedback and continous improvement
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Responsibility and Scope
• Meteorological Watch Offices
• Regulations: ICAO Annex III, WMO Technical Regulations
• Area of Responsibility: FIR
• Regional Air Navigation Agreements
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Technical Regulations C 3.1.
• 24/7 Watch to be maintained
Agreements• Supported by RSMC• (VAAC, TCAC)
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Use of warning messages
• SIGWX-Charts: WAFS responsibility, intended for flight planning (e.g. avoidance of affected areas & levels), Fixed-time prognostic charts, model-based, coarse
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prognostic charts, model-based, coarse resolution
• SIGMET: Actual situation, based on model data, observations (ground based, space based, Pilot Reports), valid for specific time interval, development over time, tendency
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Purpose of SIGMET
• Provided for flight planning and in-flight information (uplink, VHF)
• Warning of actual risk (obs or fcst)• Clear delineation of risk area & levels,
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• Clear delineation of risk area & levels, movement, time, intensity of phenomena
• Creates common situational awareness for air crew, operations control, ATM
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SIGMET-Hazards covered by this presentation
• Severe Turbulence• Severe mountain waves• Severe Icing
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Causes of Turbulence
• Thermals• Mechanical turbulence• Convection• Clear-Air turbulence
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• Clear-Air turbulence• Shear • Gravity waves
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Mechanical (terrain-induced) turbulence
• Typically caused by strong winds over complex terrain
• Stochastic by nature• May be accompanied by shear effects (gap
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• May be accompanied by shear effects (gap flows, pockets of stagnant air)
• Requires different pilot action than «typical» wind shear situation
• Could be also addressed by aerodrome warnings,
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Areal Distribution of topographically induced Turbulence
30.10.1999 afternoon flight� 500 m x 500 m grid cells with less than five measurements are disregarded.
� Grid cells used for the areal distribution calculation of turbulence are weighted withtheir surrounding ones, in an attempt to minimize statistical errors due to sparse measurements.
827/01/2011 P.Malcher et al.
06.11.1999
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Thermal turbulence
• Rarely reaching the « severe » criterion• Limited to the planetary bounday layer• (over high topography, this could well be up
to 15.000 ft or higher!)
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to 15.000 ft or higher!)• In extreme cases, thermally driven flow
interacting with topography (gaps, cols) could justify warnings
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Convective Turbulence
• Normally covered by SIGMET for EMBD, widespread CB /TS
• Strongest turbulence not automatically related to highest WXR echos (echo-free
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related to highest WXR echos (echo-free vault, outflow boundaries, downdrafts potentially channelled by topography
• Important area for user training
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« Clear Air Turbulence »
• Summarizes several related effects• Unlikely to cause structural damage to
aircraft, but:• Serious injuries to passengers and (cabin)
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• Serious injuries to passengers and (cabin) crew still a common problem
• Short-lived and patchy episodes• Scientifically challenging
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Mountain Wave turbulence(Bob Sharman et al.)
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In flight Icing cont.
• Icing affects lift (both on main wing and tail)• Effect depends also on wing profile• Some rear-mounted jet engines liable to
ingest ice removed from wings
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ingest ice removed from wings• Tail icing often more critical than main wing• Affects controls, maximum angle of attack• Aircraft may not be certified to operate in
freezing drizzle conditions (drop size >50 mikrons)
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METHODS OF DETECTING SEVERE AVIATION HAZARDS
• Early warning: SIGWX-forecasts from WAFS, regional /high resolution models: guidance for areas where hazards are likely
• Observations (IR, VIS, WV imagery,
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• Observations (IR, VIS, WV imagery, AMDAR data, Weather Radar, Wind profilers, surface obs, cloud observations)
• Pilot reports ( prompt ATC/ATM to ask Pilots in areas of suspected hazards)
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Gridded Products for Turbulence
• Now available from WAFS FTP service• Useful to identify potential risk areas• Very high resolution , non-hydrostatic
models needed for detection of mesoscale
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models needed for detection of mesoscale phenomena (gravity waves, intense shear, interaction with convection /topography)
• Relatively high false alarm rates require cross-check with observations
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Turbulence detection by observations
• Space-Based:– Identification of jet streams, jet streaks, Kelvin-
Helmoltz Instabilities, Divergence and Deformation areas
– Localization of gravity waves (topographic and
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– Localization of gravity waves (topographic and convectively triggered)
– Localization of stratospheric intrusions, indicating strong shear and and possible gravity wave braking (GWB)in WV imagery
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Deformation Zones as CAT predictors
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Banding along Sub-Tropical Jet
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Banding Along Mid-latitude Front
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Extreme Turbulence Scenario
Environmental conditions:Environmental conditions:Strong jet intersects:Strong jet intersects:Cold front with:Cold front with:Low top convectionLow top convection
Extreme turbulence Extreme turbulence
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Extreme turbulence Extreme turbulence possiblepossibleover and downwind from over and downwind from convectionconvection
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Mountain waves
• Not limited to large or very high ranges• (1000ft hills may be enough)• Trapped vs vertically propagating waves• Breaking waves potential cause for extreme
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• Breaking waves potential cause for extreme turbulence
• Trapped waves typically « benign » • In very strong, long MW danger of
overspeed by autopilot trying to hold Flight Level
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Turbulence detection by observations
• Ground-based: Surface pressure drag as indicator for GWB– Severe downslope storms– Banner clouds, « foehn walls » indicating
hydraulic jumps
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hydraulic jumps– Doppler Radar /Lidar detection of severe
storms/shear/turbulence– Radiosonde data (wind shear, Richardson
Number diagnostics)– AMDAR wind data as above
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Scientific basis
• Turbulence: Transition of kinetic energy down the scales (-5/3 law)
• Depending on Richardson Number , stability over square of wind shear
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over square of wind shear• « Self-elimination » , turbulencacts to reduce
wind shear• Model forecasts of low Ri becoming useful• Local turbulence « peaks » where sub-grid
scale processes decrease Ri-Number
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Trigger mechanisms
• Jet streaks , tropopause folding, stratospheric intrusion (water vapor image!)
• Gravity waves caused by:– Orography
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– Orography– Vicinity of CB– Geostrophic adjustment
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UA286 Turbulence (28 Dec 97)
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In Flight Icing
• Severity dependant on aircraft type, phase of flight, duration of exposure
• Icing in CB covered by Convective SIGMET• Still highly relevant for smaller, commuter
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• Still highly relevant for smaller, commuter aircraft, but also Jet Airliners at risk (Fokker 70 accidents in Munich and Pau in recetn years
• Highly relevant over high terrain, cold climates
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Detection of Icing Potential
• Models: Icing products generated by many NMS’s and institutions (CIP/FIP in US, UKMO, Meteo France, DWD to name but a few)
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few)• Require complex model physics (ice phase,
preferably aerosol content, convection)• Intensification of Icing Potential by
mesoscale processes (rainbands, complex topography) difficult to reproduce
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Known strengths and weaknesses of current algorithms
• Reasonable detection of hazard areas• Tend to overforecasting affected area in some
models• Great difficulties in discerning between lgt/mod
and severe (resolution of liquid water content!)
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and severe (resolution of liquid water content!)• Drops size distribution not well modelled• Projection of enhanced icing in mesoscale
phenomena to lowest resolvable scale• Some models exaggerate « scavenging » of liquid
water by ice crystals
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G.Isaac (Montreal):Comparison of measured and forecast liquid water
contents
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Detection of Icing Potential -Obs
• « Classical » Appleman –Mori from Radiosondes – spacing and time gap often too large to detect mesoscale bands
• Space-based: in the absence of cirrus above,
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• Space-based: in the absence of cirrus above, presence of ice crystals detectable by split-window technique
• For low-level FZDZ surface obs very useful• PIREPS!!!!
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CH01; 10.30
MSG derived products of use for aviation forecasts
ICING
Space-based detection by mutli-channel methods
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Ch01: blackcloudfree
Ch01: blackcloudfreeCh01: white
cloud
Space-based detection by mutli-channel methods
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CH03; 10.30
MSG derived products of use for aviation forecasts
ICING
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Ch01: blackCh03: blackcloudfree
Ch01: blackCh03: blackcloudfree
Ch01: whiteCh03: blackstart of icing(!?)
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orange:area of
begin of icing
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Severe Icing
• Limited temperature range (typically - 10 to - 4 C)• Liquid Water Content > 0.5 g/kg• Large droplets present (>50 mikrons)• No or at least little « scavenging » by ice crystals
unless compensated by massive vertical advection
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unless compensated by massive vertical advection of moisture!!!
• Local intensification by:– Topography– Banding– Warm advection– Lack of suitable condensation kernels
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Acknowledgements
• Thanks to NOAA (G. Ellrod, R. Sharman,S. Koch), P. Malcher (UIBK), KNMI, ZAMG, UKMOfor their pioneering work and permission to
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for their pioneering work and permission to use training material!
Excellent modules in E and S to be found at:http://www.meted.ucar.edu/topics_aviation.php