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Setting the Scene

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SIFMA Research: 2020 End-Year US Economic Survey Forecasts from the SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable December 2020

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable

The SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable brings together Chief U.S. Economists of 27 global and regional financial institutions. This semiannual survey compiles the median economic forecast of Roundtable members, published prior to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We analyze Roundtable economists’ expectations for: GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc. We also review expectations for policy moves at the upcoming FOMC meeting and discuss key macroeconomic topics and how these factors impact monetary policy.

Note: The survey was populated between November 18 and December 3

Key Takeaways

• 2020 GDP growth est. -2.5%, 2021 est. +3.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q) • 2020 unemployment rate est. 6.8%, 2021 est. 5.4% (4Q average) • Economists expect GDP to return to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2H21

Setting the Scene

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Contents Setting the Scene ............................................................................................................................................................. 3

Status of the Economic Environment ................................................................................................................................ 3 Recapping Early COVID-19 Forecasts ............................................................................................................................. 6 Mindset as Populating the Survey .................................................................................................................................... 7 2H20 Survey Results Highlights ....................................................................................................................................... 8 The Economy ..................................................................................................................................................................10 GDP Growth Expectations...............................................................................................................................................10 COVID-19 Impact on the Economic Outlook ....................................................................................................................11 Risks to Economic Forecasts ..........................................................................................................................................13 Life after COVID..............................................................................................................................................................14 Employment and the Consumer ......................................................................................................................................15 Monetary Policy ..............................................................................................................................................................16 All Eyes Remain on the Fed ............................................................................................................................................16 Inflation Expectations ......................................................................................................................................................18 Interest Rates and Credit Markets ...................................................................................................................................20 Macro Policy ...................................................................................................................................................................24 Fiscal Stimulus ................................................................................................................................................................24 Trade Policy ....................................................................................................................................................................26 Regulatory Policy ............................................................................................................................................................28 SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Forecasts ...........................................................................................................29 Reference Guide: Economic Landscape ..........................................................................................................................30 US GDP Growth and Comparison Across Regions ..........................................................................................................30 US Debt and Fed Balance Sheet and Comparison Across Regions .................................................................................31 US Employment Landscape ............................................................................................................................................32 SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Members ............................................................................................................33 SIFMA is the leading trade association for broker-dealers, investment banks and asset managers operating in the U.S. and global capital markets. On behalf of our industry’s nearly 1 million employees, we advocate on legislation, regulation and business policy, affecting retail and institutional investors, equity and fixed income markets and related products and services. We serve as an industry coordinating body to promote fair and orderly markets, informed regulatory compliance, and efficient market operations and resiliency. We also provide a forum for industry policy and professional development. SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). For more information, visit http://www.sifma.org. This report is subject to the Terms of Use applicable to SIFMA’s website, available at http://www.sifma.org/legal. Copyright © 2020

http://www.sifma.org/http://www.sifma.org/legal

Setting the Scene

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Setting the Scene

Status of the Economic Environment

Earlier this year the world changed almost overnight. Along with learning new ways to live and work, the U.S. economy took the sharpest drop into recession on record. The unemployment rate increased 10.3 pps to 14.7%, the highest rate and largest month-over-month increase in the history of the series, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The number of people unemployed rose to 23.1 million (+15.9 million to pre-COVID levels).

As we head into the end of the year of COVID-only forecasts, there are clear statistical signs of the economic recovery. The U.S. recovery since the lockdowns has been strong, boosted by fiscal stimulus (a significant contributor to 2Q20 GDP, contributing to a lesser extent in 3Q20) and outperformance in some sectors of the economy, such as online retail sales and home sales. The economic recovery, as depicted by growth in real GDP, has clearly been in a V- shaped pattern:

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (citing U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) Note: Percent change from preceding period, seasonally adjusted

2.9% 1.5% 2.6% 2.4%-5.0%

-31.4%

33.1%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Q/Q Change in Real GDP Growth

Setting the Scene

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The U3 unemployment rate has come down substantially to 6.7% in November, -8.0 pps from the April peak of 14.7% but still 3.2 pps higher than February levels. There are now 10.7 million people unemployed, down from 23.1 million in April but 4.9 million higher than in February.

The spread between the U3 and U6 (a broader measure of underemployment) has closed as well. Typically, there is a 3-4 pps spread between U3 and U6 figures. In April, this gap reached 8.1 pps, a difference of 13 million jobs. By November, the spread decreased to 5.4 pps, as the employment picture had improved on both measures (albeit still around 2 pps points higher than the average in 2019).

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (citing U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) Note: Seasonally adjusted; U6 = total unemployed + all persons marginally attached to the labor force + total employed part time for economic reasons

However, we are not out of the woods yet. While the unemployment rate has come down, the labor force participation rate (LFR) has also declined. The LFR was 61.5% in November, +1.3 pps from the April low but down 1.9 pps from February levels. Additionally, the November employment release may not truly represent the current employment environment, as the recent round of lockdowns only started at the later end of the month.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (citing U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) Note: Seasonally adjusted

4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 4.4%

14.7%13.3%

11.1%10.2%8.4% 7.9%

6.9% 6.7%8.0% 7.4% 7.2% 6.9% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9%

8.7%

22.8%21.2%

18.0%16.5%

14.2%12.8% 12.1%

12.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

J-19

F-19

M-1

9

A-19

M-1

9

J-19

J-19

A-19

S-19

O-1

9

N-1

9

D-1

9

J-20

F-20

M-2

0

A-20

M-2

0

J-20

J-20

A-20

S-20

O-2

0

N-2

0

Assessing Real Unemployment: U3 vs. U6

U3 U6

63.2% 63.0% 62.9% 63.0%63.2% 63.2% 63.4%

62.7%

60.2%60.8%

61.5%61.4%

61.7%61.4%

61.7%61.5%

58%

59%

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

J-19

F-19

M-1

9

A-19

M-1

9

J-19

J-19

A-19

S-19

O-1

9

N-1

9

D-1

9

J-20

F-20

M-2

0

A-20

M-2

0

J-20

J-20

A-20

S-20

O-2

0

N-2

0

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFR)

Setting the Scene

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Further, the recovery has not been equal across all segments of the economy. Service areas affected by social distancing, whether forced by lockdowns or driven by fear of the virus (travel, entertainment, hospitality, etc.), continue to struggle. Conversely, other areas have flourished, such as some technology companies, plays on the migration to the suburbs from urban centers and various physical, mostly delivered goods (online retail, grocery, used cars, home sales, etc.).

Putting this in perspective, we look at unemployment by sector. The worst sector is mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction at a 19.2% unemployment rate (+16.0 pps Y/Y). This is followed by leisure and hospitality at a 15.0% unemployment rate (+10.1 pps Y/Y). Looking further at this number, we note: accommodation is at 21.5% unemployment; arts, entertainment and recreation 17.0%; and food services and drinking places 13.8%. On the other end of the spectrum, the government sector has an unemployment rate around half of the national total, at 3.4% (+1.6 pps Y/Y). Employees in the in-person or physical touch sectors are the true casualties of this war against the pandemic.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: As of Nov 2020. Dark bar = 2020, light = 2019. Household data, not seasonally adjusted. Mining = Mining, quarrying & oil & gas extraction; agriculture = Agricultural & related private wage & salary workers; self-employed = Self-employed workers, unincorporated & unpaid family workers; finance includes insurance; all = subcategories of nonagricultural private wage & salary workers except agriculture, government & self-employed

While the backward looking data paints a positive picture for the economic recovery, we are writing this as COIVD cases spike in the U.S. (around 14 million cases and 274 thousand deaths). This leads many to predict another wave of mass lockdowns is in our near future. Additionally, the GDP impact of the original fiscal stimulus has run out, and Congress has not yet passed another round. This could change the shape of the economic recovery from a V to a W.

19.2

15.0

8.4

8.2

8.1

8.0

7.3

6.4

6.0

5.9

5.9

4.7

3.7

3.5

3.4

Mining/Etc.

Leisure/Hospitality

Agricultural

Information

Other

Transportation/Utilities

Construction

Total

Wholesale/Retail

Professional/Business

Self-employed/Etc.

Manufacturing

Education/Health

Finance/Real Estate

Government

Unemployment Rates by Sector (%)

Setting the Scene

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Recapping Early COVID-19 Forecasts

Before digging into this year’s survey results, we recap highlights from our June 2020 survey: https://www.sifma.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/SIFMA-US-Economic-Survey-1H20.pdf

• GDP growth estimate for 2020 was -5.5% and +4.7% for 2021 (median forecast, 4Q/4Q)

• Top factors affecting economic growth: COVID-19 was on the top of the list, followed by business confidence and then private credit markets

• Top risk to economic forecasts: COVID-19 vaccine/2nd wave for both the up and downside

• 77% of economists expected a swoosh-shaped economic recovery, followed by 9% for both V-shaped and U-shaped

• 43% of respondents expected nominal GDP to return to its pre COVID-19 level (in relation to 4Q19) by the end of 2022

• 77% of economists expected the long-term potential GDP growth rate is between 1.5% and 2%, with 55% stating this has not changed from pre COVID-19 estimates

• Economists expected the elevated unemployment rate to end the year at 9.5% in 2020 and 7.2% in 2021 (4Q/4Q)

• 100% of respondents said the U.S. won’t take its target rate into negative territory; if so, estimates were split 50%/50% as to timing, further out in 2020 or not until 2021

• 86% of economists thought rates would not begin to normalize until after 2021; top factors included labor impact of COVID-19, large scale return to work, and if there was a second wave of COVID-19

• Economists expected inflation (PCE deflator) to decrease to 0.3% in 2020 (core PCE deflator 0.9%); top factors in the core inflation outlook were COVID-19 recovery time and economic slack/unemployment

• 41% of respondents expected a 15% to 25% probability for deflation in the next two years; 45% of respondents expected a 0% to 15% probability for structurally higher inflation over the long run

In summary, COVID, COVID, COVID. In our mid-2020 survey, the economic recovery was viewed as highly dependent upon the delivery of a viable vaccine on a widescale basis, which would enable consumers and businesses to return to some sort of pre-COVID normal behaviors.

https://www.sifma.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/SIFMA-US-Economic-Survey-1H20.pdf

Setting the Scene

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Mindset as Populating the Survey

As we headed into this round of our semiannual economic outlook survey, economists had an important additional factor to consider. We sent this survey into the field a little over a week after the U.S. presidential election was called for President-elect Joe Biden. While few details were known of the President-elect’s potential policy priorities or nominations for key offices (the exception being nominating former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for Treasury Secretary, which was well received by markets), we felt it was important to gauge the mindset of economists as they prepared forecasts for next year.

• When asked how the election outcome impacted the GDP forecast, 60% of economists indicated no impact while 20% said it is too early to gauge

• When asked about expectations for net fiscal spending in year 1 of the new Administration and Congress, 47% expect less than $1 trillion in net spending while 40% estimated between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion

7%

13%

20%

60%

Lifted my GDP forecasts

Lowered my GDP forecasts

It is too early to gauge

No bearing on my GDP forecasts

2020 Election Outcome's Impact on GDP Forecasts

13%

40%

47%

>$3.0 trillion

>$2.0 trillion to $3.0 trillion

>$1.5 trillion to $2.0 trillion

$1 trillion to $1.5 trillion

Setting the Scene

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2H20 Survey Results Highlights

2020 marked the deepest recession on record in the U.S. While economic growth is expected to recover fully by the end of 2021 (estimated at 3.5% 4Q/4Q), forecasting during crisis times is difficult at best. There are too many unknowns, and what we think we know appears to change daily. The majority of states and local economies have opened to some degree, but what will the new normal be? Will customer preferences have permanently shifted? Will businesses need to make enduring adjustments? What portion of the jobs lost will become permanent? In addition to the demand side, fundamentals factors are shifting on the supply side as well.

Therefore, instead of comparing to past numbers, we asked our Roundtable of economists to provide their best assessment of a new normal and when we can get there. We highlight the following from the survey: (Note: This survey was populated between November 18 and December 3)

• Economic Forecasts

o 2020 GDP growth expected at -2.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q); 2021 expected at 3.5%

o On a quarterly basis, 1Q21 GDP growth expected at 2.6% and 2Q21 at 4.2% (Q/Q, SAAR)

o Unemployment rate forecasted to end 2020 at 6.8%, falling in 2021 to 5.4% (4Q average)

• Economic Recovery

o When building their forecasts, 59% assumed a vaccine would begin to be disseminated to the broad population by 1Q21

o In terms of the shape of GDP growth recovery, 53% of survey participants responded Swoosh-shaped recovery, followed by 20% W-shaped (a double-dip into recession); when looking at the business outlook this changes to 57% Swoosh-shaped and 29% K-shaped

o Economists expect GDP to return to its pre-COVID-19 level (in relation to 4Q19) by 2H21

o 81% of economists expect the long-term potential growth rate is between 1.5% and 2%, with 47% stating this is somewhat lower compared with pre COVID-19 estimates

• Life after COVID

o 57% of respondents expect the labor force participation rate not to return to the ~63% pre-COVID average until beyond the end of 2022, followed by 29% expecting it in 2H22

o Once a vaccine is distributed en masse, 38% of Roundtable economists expect consumers to approach high-density activities at increased but nowhere near pre-COVID-19 levels and another 38% expect it to return to pre-COVID-19 norms

o 56% of respondents expect employees never to return to the office at pre-COVID levels, followed by split but equal responses for either in 2H21 or 2H22, 19% of respondents each answer

Setting the Scene

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• Fed Actions

o Respondents indicated that should the Fed need to provide more policy accommodation, the top tool will be asset purchases/balance sheet (75%)

o Only one respondent replied the Fed would embark on Yield Curve Caps/Control (YCC) and they expect it in 1H21

o 100% of Roundtable economists said the U.S. will not take its target rate into negative territory

• Trade Policy

o 53% said the focus will return to tariffs and trade negotiations by 2H21; 27% said beyond 2021

o 57% of respondents expect a light trade deal (eliminating tariffs) between the U.S. and China, followed by 36% expecting no progress after Phase 1 and 7% expecting a full deal (IP protection)

o Will negative sentiments around China's handling of COVID-19 impact future trade negotiations? 57% of economists responded somewhat, followed by 36% not at all. None believe that it ends all chances of negotiation

The Economy

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The Economy

GDP Growth Expectations Our Roundtable economists expect GDP growth to finish 2020 at -2.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q). For 2021, the median forecast sees GDP increasing by 3.5% (4Q/4Q). On a quarterly basis, respondents forecast 2.6% GDP growth in 1Q21, improving to 4.2% in 2Q21.

(Last survey: 2020 GDP growth -5.5%, +4.7% for 2021; median forecast, 4Q/4Q)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Note: SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate

3.1% 2.7% 2.5%

-2.6%-1.8%

2.6% 1.9% 1.80%

-5.5%

-2.5%

1.8%

-0.1% 0.2%

-10.3%

-3.2%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

-4P -3P -2P -1P CP

2020 Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 4Q/4QHigh Median Low

-1.8%

6.0%

-2.5%

3.5%

-3.2%

2.8%

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

2020 2021

Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 4Q/4QHigh Median Low

-5.0%

-31.4%

33.1%

7.2%5.8%

9.5% 7.3% 5.7%4.0%

2.6%4.2% 4.1% 3.7%

1.1%-3.4%

2.0% 1.8% 2.0%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20E 1Q21E 2Q21E 3Q21E 4Q21E

Real GDP Growth, Q/Q Change (SAAR)Actual Est.-High Est.-Median Est.-Low

The Economy

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COVID-19 Impact on the Economic Outlook

2020 was a difficult year for forecasting. Therefore, we polled our Roundtable economists for just how all-encompassing COVID-19 is for estimates, despite having so many unknown moving parts.

• When asked how has Covid-19’s impact evolved in economic outlooks, 50% responded it has lessened, i.e. it is a near-term phenomenon not a structural shift

• When building their forecasts, 59% assumed a vaccine would be disseminated to the broad population by 1H21

• In terms of the shape of GDP growth recovery, 53% of responded Swoosh-shaped recovery, followed by 20% W-shaped; when looking at the business outlook, this changes to 57% Swoosh-shaped and 29% K-shaped

• 50% of Roundtable economists expect GDP to return to its pre-COVID-19 level (in relation to 4Q19) by 2H21, followed by 44% expecting it by 1H21

• 81% of Roundtable economists expect the long-term potential growth rate is between 1.5% and 2%, with 47% stating this is somewhat lower from pre-COVID-19 estimates

Source: SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable

50%

29%

21%

Lessened

Increased

RemainedUnchanged

Evolution of Covid-19 Impact on Economic Outlook

59%

35%

6%

1H21

2H21

Beyond 2021

Covid-19 Vaccine Dissemination

The Economy

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Source: SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Note: Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding

53%

20%

13%

13%

Swoosh

W-Shaped

V-Shaped

K-Shaped

U-Shaped

L-Shaped

Type Economic Recovery US Experiencing - GDP

57%

29%

7%

7%

Swoosh

K-Shaped

V-Shaped

W-Shaped

U-Shaped

Type Economic Recovery US Experiencing - Business

6%

44%

50%

End-2020

Beyond 2021

1H21

2H21

Nominal GDP Return to Pre Covid-19 Level

6%

13%

81%

0%-1%

>1%-1.5%

>2%

>1.5%-2%

Long-Term Growth Rate for US Economy

7%

7%

40%

47%

Good Deal Higher

Good Deal Lower

Somewhat Higher

No, Temporary Impact

Somewhat Lower

Change in LT Growth Rate Forecast Post Covid-19

The Economy

Page 13 of 33

Risks to Economic Forecasts

When asked to rank the factors that had the greatest impact on U.S. economic growth in 2020, COVID-19 was on the top of the list, followed by US fiscal and monetary policy. Looking ahead to 2021, factors having the greatest impact on forecasts included COVID-19, US monetary policy and business and consumer confidence.

(Last survey: COVID-19 was on the top of the list, followed by business confidence and then private credit markets)

Source: SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Note: Ranked by percentage of economists that listed a factor

Therefore, our Roundtable economists list the following top risks to their economic forecasts:

• Upside – faster vaccine distribution, larger fiscal stimulus and increased consumer spending

• Downside – delayed/no vaccine or 2nd wave of COVID-19, smaller or no fiscal stimulus and political gridlock


6%

6%

25%

31%

88%

94%

100%

Other

Eurozone Economy

Brexit

Geopolitical Conflicts

US Trade Policy

China Economy

Private Credit Markets

Business & Consumer Confidence

US Monetary Policy

US Fiscal Policy/Budget

Covid-19

Factors Impacting 2020 US Economic Growth

6%

13%

19%

25%

63%

100%

Other

US Fiscal Policy/Budget

Eurozone Economy

Brexit

Geopolitical Conflicts

China Economy

US Trade Policy

Private Credit Markets

Business & Consumer Confidence

US Monetary Policy

Covid-19

Factors Impacting 2021 US Economic Growth

100%

75%

38%

Faster VaccineDistribution

Larger FiscalStimulus

Increased ConsumerSpending

T3 Risks to Economic Forecast - Upside

100%

38%

19%

Delayed/No Vaccine or2nd Wave

Smaller or No FiscalStimulus

Political Gridlock

T3 Risks to Economic Forecast - Downside

The Economy

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Life after COVID

Important factors in economic forecasts are when businesses and consumers can return to pre-COVID-19 normalcy and what the new normal might look like. As such, we polled Roundtable economists on a few areas in need of a normal life.

• 57% of respondents expect the labor force participation rate to return to the ~63% pre-COVID-19 average beyond 2022, followed by 29% expecting it in 2H22

• Once a vaccine is distributed en masse, 38% of Roundtable economists expect consumers to approach high-density activities at increased by nowhere near pre-COVID-19 levels while another 38% expect it to return to pre-COVID-19 norms

• 56% of respondents expect employees never to return to the office at pre-COVID-19 levels, followed by 19% each that expect it in 2H21 and 2H22


57%

29%

21%

7%

Beyond 2022

2H22

1H22

2H21

1H21

Labor Force Participation Return to Pre Covid-19 Avg

38%

38%

19%

6%

Increase but nowhere near pre-Covid norms

Return to pre-Covid norms

Too early to tell

Continue to curb substantially

Consumers Approach to High-Density Activities

56%

19%

19%

6%

Never

2H21

2H22

1H22

1H21

Beyond 2022

Work-from-Office Return to Pre Covid-19 Norms

The Economy

Page 15 of 33

Employment and the Consumer

As of November 2020, the U.S. unemployment rate remained elevated at 6.7% (down from the April peak of 14.7% but versus 3.6% to start the year). Roundtable economists expect the unemployment rate to end 2020 at 6.8%, falling in 2021 to 5.4% (4Q average). Employment growth (average monthly change in non-farm payroll employment) is expected to end 2020 at -729,000 but rebound to +393,000 in 2021.

(Last survey: 2020 unemployment rate 9.5%, 2021 7.2%; -1,106 thousand for 2020)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Note: Average monthly change for non-farm payroll employment, 4Q average for unemployment rate

In light of these unemployment expectations, Roundtable economists expect real personal consumption growth to end 2020 at -2.3%, then rebound to 4.2% in 2021 (4Q/4Q). There is an expected increase in average hourly earnings by 4.2% in 2020 and 2.6% in 2021.

(Last survey: -6.3% real personal consumption growth; 2.7% average hourly earnings)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable

176 193 178

(729)

393

4.1% 3.8% 3.5%

6.8%

5.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payroll EmploymentEmployment (K; RHS) Unemployment

2.9%

2.4% 2.5%

-2.3%

3.9%

2.5%

3.4% 3.2%

4.2%

2.6%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E

Consumption Earnings

Consumer Spending (4Q/4Q) & Hourly Earnings (4Q/4Q)

Monetary Policy

Page 16 of 33

Monetary Policy

All Eyes Remain on the Fed

Normally, we would ask the Roundtable to share expectations of the Fed’s next rate move at the upcoming FOMC meeting. (Last survey: 100% indicated no expectation the Fed moves into negative rate territory; if so, 50% estimated this to occur further out in 2020 and 50% said not until 2021.) With the Federal Funds rate target remaining in the range of 0.00%-0.25%, the focus shifts to what other actions the Fed could take to rebuild the economy.

• Respondents indicated that should the Fed need to provide more policy accommodation, the top tool will be asset purchases/balance sheet (75%), followed by 63% responding yield curve control and also 63% selecting increased use of the emergency lending 13(3) facilities

• Only one respondent replied the Fed would embark on Yield Curve Caps/Control (YCC) and they expect to begin in 1H21

• 100% of Roundtable economists said the U.S. won’t take its target rate into negative territory

• 56% of respondents believe the Fed will begin to taper its longer-term asset purchase program in 1H22, followed by 19% in 2H21 and another 19% in 2023

• 56% of Roundtable economists expect the Fed will begin to lift its target range for the federal funds rate beyond 2023, followed by 31% in 2023


13%

25%

63%

63%

75%

Communication

Other

Target Interest Rate

13(3) Facilities

Yield Curve Control

Asset Purchases/Balance Sheet

Accomodative Monetary Policy Tools

Monetary Policy

Page 17 of 33

Source: SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable (figures may not add to 100% due to rounding)

The most important factors to the Fed’s decision making were inflation indicators, labor impact of COVID-19 and financial conditions. In light of expected asset purchases, alongside the 13(3) facilities, 86% of respondents expect the size of total balance sheet to be between $8 trillion and $10 trillion by the end of 2021.

Source: SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable (ranked by percentage of economists that listed a factor)

Yes, 6%

No, 94%

Fed to Embark on YCC

No, 100%

Negative Rates in the US

6%

19%

19%

56%

1H21

Beyond 2023

2H22

2H21

2023

1H22

Fed Begins to Taper LT Asset Purchase Program

6%

6%

31%

56%

1H21

2H21

1H22

2H22

2023

Beyond2023

Rates Begin to Normalize

6%

19%

38%

56%

69%

81%

94%

Resumption of Economic Activity

Other

Global Economic Developments

Financial Stability

Vaccine

Financial Conditions

Labor Impact of Covid-19

Inflation Indicators

Factors Important to Fed's Rate Decision

14%

86%

>$12T

$10T-$12T

Monetary Policy

Page 18 of 33

Inflation Expectations

In terms of inflation, Roundtable economists expect it to end 2020 at 1.2% for the PCE deflator and 1.5% for the core PCE deflator (year-over-year). This compares to 1.5% and 1.6% in 2019, respectively.

(Last survey: 0.3% and 0.9% respectively for 2020)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable

Digging further into inflation, and the potential for disinflation, respondents indicated:

• Top factors in the outlook for core inflation: economic slack/unemployment and COVID-19 recovery time

• 64% of Roundtable economists are somewhat confident the Fed can achieve its 2% inflation target in a

sustainable way while 36% are doubtful

• 38% of respondents expect a 0% to 15% probability the U.S. will experience a period of disinflation in core

measures over the next two years with another 38% responding 15% to 25% probability

• 50% of respondents expect a 15% to 25% probability the U.S. will experience structurally higher inflation over the long run, followed by 19% responding 0% to 15% and another 19% responding >50%

• Top factors to push inflation higher: sustained breakdown of supply chains, return of consumer purchasing power, costs increase, reversal of globalization and sustained higher deficit

(Last survey: top factors = reversal of globalization and sustained breakdown of supply chains; 48% very confident but 39% not confident at all and 13% doubtful the Fed can achieve its 2% goal)

1.8%2.0%

1.5%

1.2%

1.8%

1.7%2.0% 1.6% 1.5%

1.7%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E

PCE Deflator & Core PCE DeflatorPCE Core PCE

Monetary Policy

Page 19 of 33

Source: SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Note: Factors ranked by percentage of economists that listed them; figures may not add to 100% due to rounding

6%

6%

13%

25%

25%

50%

63%

69%

88%

Other

Commodity Price Pass Through

Global Economic Conditions

Fiscal Policy/Deficit Trends

Value of the Dollar

Monetary Policy

Inflation Expectations

Covid-19 Recovery Time

Economic Slack/Unemployment

Factors Important to Core Inflation Outlook

14%

36%

64%

Not Confident At All

Not Sure

Very Confident

Doubtful

Somewhat Confident

Confidence in Fed Achieving 2% Inflation Target

6%

19%

38%

38%

>50%

>25%-50%

>15%-25%

0%-15%

Probability of US Disinflation in the Next Two Years

13%

19%

19%

50%

>25%-50%

>50%

0%-15%

>15%-25%

Probability of Structurally Higher Inflation in the US

19%

44%

50%

50%

50%

50%

63%

Other

Targeted Fiscal PolicyMeasures

Sustained Higher Deficit

Reversal of Globalization

Costs Increase as SupplyChains Move Back to US

Return of ConsumerPurchasing Power

Sustained Breakdown ofSupply Chains

Factors Contributing to LT Higher Inflation

Monetary Policy

Page 20 of 33

Interest Rates and Credit Markets

Below we rank respondents’ factors that have the greatest impact on expectations for long-term Treasury yields in 2020: inflation/inflation expectations and U.S. economic conditions were the top factors.

(Last survey: risk aversion/flight to quality and U.S. economic conditions were the top factors)


88%

81%

69%

50%

50%

44%

13%

6%

6%

Inflation/Inflation expectations

US Economic Conditions

Budget Deficit Trend/Supply of…

FOMC Policy

Global Economic Conditions

Risk Aversion/Flight to Quality

Monetary Policy Outside the US

Value of the Dollar

Geopolitical Risks

Other

Greatest Impact on LT Treasury Yields in 2020

Monetary Policy

Page 21 of 33

Respondents expect the following movements in key rates:

• Yield curve (Fed funds-to-10-year Treasury yield) = 100% steepen

• TED (Treasury-to-Eurodollar, now LIBOR) = 67% remain the same

• Investment-grade corporate-to-Treasury spreads = 60% remain the same

• High-yield corporate-to-Treasury spreads = 47% remain the same

(Last survey: YC 63% steepen; TED 59% remain the same; IG/UST and HY/UST 61% narrow)

Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Note: Monthly averages. Fed funds = midpoint of target rate range

100%Steepen

Flatten

Remain thesame

Expectations (by Mid-2021): Yield Curve

67%

20%

13%

Remain thesame

Widen

Narrow

Expectations (by Mid-2021): TED Spread

60%

27%

13%

Remain thesame

Flatten

Steepen

Expectations (by Mid-2021): IG Corp/UST Spread

47%

33%

20%

Remain thesame

Flatten

Steepen

Expectations (by Mid-2021): HY Corp/UST Spread

Monetary Policy

Page 22 of 33

Surveyed Roundtable economists expect the following rates and therefore yield curve:

• Fed Funds = 4Q20 0.13%, 4Q21 0.13%

• 2-Year UST = 4Q20 0.17%, 4Q21 0.30%

• 10-Year UST = 4Q20 0.90%, 4Q21 1.30%

• 30-Year Mortgage = 4Q20 2.88%, 4Q21 3.07%

(Last survey: FF 0.13%, 0.13%; 2Y UST 0.20%, 0.35%; 10Y UST 0.68%, 0.80%; 30Y mortgage 3.26%, 3.03%)

Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable

0.60%

0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

Mar

-20 Ju

n- 20 Sep-

20 Dec

-20

E

Mar

-21

E

Jun-

21E

Sep-

21E

Dec

-21

EFederal Funds Target Rate

Actual Est.-High Est.-Median Est.-Low

0.45%

0.19%0.14%

0.30% 0.30%0.35%

0.40%

0.50%

0.17%0.20% 0.20%

0.25%0.30%

0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

Mar

-20 Ju

n- 20 Sep-

20 Dec

-20

E

Mar

-21

E

Jun-

21E

Sep-

21E

Dec

-21

E

2 Year UST RateActual Est.-High Est.-Median Est.-Low

0.87%0.73% 0.68%

1.25% 1.25% 1.30%1.40%

1.50%

0.90%1.00%

1.10%1.20%

1.30%

0.45% 0.40%0.55% 0.60%

0.70%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Mar

-20 Ju

n- 20 Sep-

20 Dec

-20

E

Mar

-21

E

Jun-

21E

Sep-

21E

Dec

-21

E

10 Year UST RateActual Est.-High Est.-Median Est.-Low

3.45%

3.16%

2.89%3.00%

3.15%3.30%

3.40% 3.45%

2.88% 2.90%2.96% 3.00%

3.07%

2.70% 2.69% 2.73%2.79% 2.86%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Mar

-20 Ju

n- 20 Sep-

20 Dec

-20

E

Mar

-21

E

Jun-

21E

Sep-

21E

Dec

-21

E

30 Year Fixed Mortgage RateActual Est.-High Est.-Median Est.-Low

Monetary Policy

Page 23 of 33

Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable

3.45%

3.16%

2.89% 2.88% 2.90%2.96% 3.00%

3.07%

0.60%

0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13%

0.45%0.19%

0.14% 0.17%0.20% 0.20%

0.25%0.30%

0.87%

0.73%

0.68%

0.90%1.00%

1.10%1.20%

1.30%

2.4%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20E Mar-21E Jun-21E Sep-21E Dec-21E

Expected Rates30-Y Mortgage (RHS) Fed Funds 2-Y UST 10-Y UST

Macro Policy

Page 24 of 33

Macro Policy

Fiscal Stimulus

The Fed has stated (multiple times) that it will remain committed to using all the tools in its arsenal to help rebuild the economy and support financial markets. Yet, there are some issues the Fed cannot tackle. As shown earlier in the shape of the recovery charts, we are seeing a split between the data and what we see on the ground. The pure economic data, i.e. GDP growth rates, shows a clear recovery, whether you view this as a V- or swoosh-shaped recovery pattern.

However, there are economic disparities between different business sectors. There are the COVID-19 affected sectors, related to service areas affected by social distancing (whether forced by lockdowns or driven by fear of the virus): travel, entertainment, hospitality, etc. These areas continue to struggle. Then there are the other goods and service sectors, these are the physical, mostly delivered goods areas, as well as the migration form urban areas plays: online retail, grocery, used car sales, home sales, etc.

The uneven business recovery and historically high unemployment situation are areas in need of fiscal stimulus. Therefore, we polled our Roundtable economists on their thoughts on timing of fiscal stimulus and when it can be expected.

• 56% of respondents expect the next round of fiscal stimulus to occur after inauguration, followed by 38% by

end of this year

• Roundtable economists are split when it comes to the format the stimulus will come in: 44% expect it to come in multiple targeted deals and 44% expect one large package


6%

38%

56%

2Q21

2H21

Beyond 2021

Before year end

After inauguration

Timing of Next Round of Stimulus

13%

44%

44%

Unsure

One large package

Multiple targeted deals

Format of Next Round of Stimulus

Macro Policy

Page 25 of 33

• If more stimulus does not occur, 43% of respondents indicate this could lower 2021 GDP forecasts by over 40 bps, followed by 36% by 20-40 bps

• 47% of respondents have built $500 billion to $1 trillion deficit expansion into 2021 GDP estimates, followed by 40% at over $1 trillion


21%

36%

43%

No impact

Lower 0-20 bps

Lower 20-40 bps

Lower >40 bps

If No Stimulus, Impact on 2021 GDP Forecasts

7%

7%

40%

47%

>$1.5tn

Macro Policy

Page 26 of 33

Trade Policy

In the trade policy section of the survey (focused on tariffs on China and the EU), we analyzed the shift in sentiment prior to COVID-19 versus currently.

Note: The survey was populated before President-elect Biden indicated the tariffs imposed on China under the phase one trade deal will remain in place at the start of the new administration.

• 53% of Roundtable economists expect the focus to return to tariffs and trade negotiations by 2H21, with 27% believing this will happen beyond 2021

• U.S. to proceed with trade negotiations with China with: 67% responded start up where they left off, 33% relax trade pressures

• U.S. to proceed with trade negotiations with Europe with: 87% responding relaxed trade pressures, followed by 13% expecting to start up where they left off

• 57% of respondents expect the U.S. and China to eventually agree on light trade deal (around only eliminating tariffs, reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China), followed by 36% no progress after Phase 1 and 7% still holding out hope for a full deal (includes IP protection)

• When asked if the current negative sentiments around China’s handling of COVID-19 will impact future trade negotiations, 57% of Roundtable economists responded somewhat, followed by 36% not at all but none

expect it to end all chances of negotiation


20%

27%

53%

Before the end of 2020

1H21

Beyond 2021

2H21

When Will Focus Return to Tariffs/Trade?

13%

87%

Increase Pressure

Start Up Where Left Off

Relax Pressure

US to Proceed with Trade Negotiations with Europe

Macro Policy

Page 27 of 33


33%

67%

Increase Pressure

Relax Pressure

Start Up Where Left Off

US to Proceed with Trade Negotiations with China

7%

36%

57%

Full Deal

No Progressafter Phase 1

Light Deal

Type of Final US-China Trade Deal

7%

36%

57%

Ends All Chance ofNegotiation

Significantly

Not At All

Somewhat

China's Handling of Covid-19 Impact Trade Talks

Macro Policy

Page 28 of 33

Regulatory Policy 64% of respondents believe the regulatory environment for financial services is improving but still difficult. 92% of Roundtable economists do not build estimates for the impact of regulatory reform into their GDP forecast model, and 36% indicate significant reform would have no impact on their GDP growth forecasts.

(Last survey: 67% improving but still difficult; 89% do not build reg reform into forecasts; 53% say reg reform has no impact on GDP growth estimates)

Source: SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Note: Reg = regulatory; est = estimates. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding

9%

27%

64%

Negative

Very Negative

Other

Positive

Improving, Still Difficult

Regulatory Environment for Financial Services

Yes, 8%

No, 92%

Reg Reform Est. in GDP Model

18%

36%

45%

Raise by more than10 bps

Raise by up to 10bps

No impact

Do not forecast

Regulatory Reform Impact on GDP Growth

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Forecasts

Page 29 of 33

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Forecasts Economic Indicators – Annual

(%, unless indicated) 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Real GDP (4Q/4Q) 2.7 2.5 2.3 -2.5 3.5 Real Personal Consumption (4Q/4Q) 2.9 2.4 2.5 -2.3 3.9 Nonresidential Fixed Investment (4Q/4Q) 4.8 6.5 1.4 -3.6 4.1 Residential Fixed Investment (4Q/4Q) 4.7 -3.9 1.6 9.2 5.2 Real Federal Government Spending (4Q/4Q) 1.2 3.0 4.8 2.8 2.0 Real State and Local Government Spending (4Q/4Q) 1.1 0.6 1.9 -2.5 0.5 Non-Farm Payroll Employment (K; avg. monthly change) 175.8 192.8 177.8 -728.6 392.9 Unemployment Rate (4Q average) 4.1 3.8 3.5 6.8 5.4 Labor Force Participation Rate (4Q average) 62.7 62.9 63.2 61.7 62.5 Average Hourly earnings (4Q/4Q) 2.5 3.4 3.2 4.2 2.6 Real Disposable Income (4Q/4Q) 3.4 3.7 1.6 4.9 1.9 Personal Savings Rate (annual average) 7.2 7.9 7.6 16.1 9.8 CPI (4Q/4Q) 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.2 1.9 Core CPI (4Q/4Q) 1.8 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.8 PCE deflator (4Q/4Q) 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.8 Core PCE deflator (4Q/4Q) 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.7 Industrial Production Index (annual % change) 2.3 3.9 0.9 -7.3 4.6 Housing Starts (K, annual average) 1,207 1,248 1,295 1,362 1,440 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Prices (Y/Y) 5.8 5.8 3.5 5.0 4.1 New Home Sales (K, annual average) 616 614 685 831.5 901.5 Motor Vehicle Sales (M, annual average) 17.2 17.2 16.9 14.5 16.0 Federal Budget ($B, FY) -665 -779 -984 -3,131 -2,236 Current Account Deficit ($B) 365.3 449.7 480.2 664.8 763.9

Economic Indicators – Quarterly (%) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20E 1Q21E 2Q21E 3Q21E 4Q21E Real GDP (Q/Q, annualized) -5.0 -31.4 33.1 4.0 2.6 4.2 4.1 3.7 Real Personal Consumption (Q/Q, annualized) -6.9 -33.2 40.7 3.9 2.2 5.0 4.9 3.7 Nonresidential Fixed Investment (Q/Q, annualized) -6.7 -27.2 20.3 5.3 3.7 4.3 4.0 4.2 Residential Fixed Investment (Q/Q, annualized) 19.0 -35.6 59.3 17.0 5.1 4.5 4.0 4.0 Unemployment Rate 3.8 13.0 8.8 6.8 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.4 CPI (Y/Y) 2.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 2.7 1.9 1.9 Core CPI (Y/Y) 2.2 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.4 1.9 1.8 PCE Deflator (Y/Y) 1.7 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.8 Core PCE Deflator (Y/Y) 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.7

Interest Rates (Monthly Average) (%) Mar'20 Jun'20 Sep'20 Dec'20E Mar'21E Jun'21E Sep'21E Dec'21E Federal Funds Target Rate (midpoint) 0.602 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 2-Year UST Yield 0.45 0.19 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.30 10-Year UST Yield 0.87 0.73 0.68 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 3.45 3.16 2.89 2.88 2.90 2.96 3.00 3.07

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable

Reference Guide: Economic Landscape

Page 30 of 33


US GDP Growth and Comparison Across Regions

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, World Bank, OECD, Bloomberg Note: NE = net exports, Business = business investment, Government =govt consumption & investment, PC = personal consumption expenditure

15.6

19.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2019

US Real GDP - Total ($T)

-3.6% -4.8%

14.2% 18.0%

68.2% 69.4%

21.2% 17.3%

-10%0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2010 2019

US Real GDP - By CategoryNE Business PC Government

1.0 1.8

2.53.0

7.2

8.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2019

US Real GDP - Personal Consumption ($T)Services Nondurable Goods Durable Goods

1.8

2.8

0.4

0.6

0.06

0.05

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2019

US Real GDP - Business Investment ($T)Inventories Residential Nonresidential

15.0 14.5

2.5

5.7 6.1

21.4

15.6

2.8

5.1

14.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

US EU27 UK Japan China

GDP by Region ($T)2010 2019

48.5

33.039.4

44.5

4.6

65.1

34.9

42.3 40.2

10.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

US EU27 UK Japan China

GDP per Capita by Region ($K)2010 2019


Page 31 of 33

US Debt and Fed Balance Sheet and Comparison Across Regions

Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statista, US Treasury Note: YTS as of September 2020, QE = Quantitative easing is a monetary policy when a central bank purchases financial assets to inject money into the economy; Twist = monetary policy when a central bank buys long-term and sells short-term bonds to flatten the yield curve without expanding the balance sheet; QE1: Nov'08-Mar'10, QE2: Nov'10-Jun'11, Twist: Sep'11-Jun'12, QE3: Sep'12-Oct'14, QE4: Mar'20-May'20

106.7%

77.6% 85.4%

238.0%

52.6%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

US EU UK Japan China

Debt to GDP - 2019

3.0% 3.6%4.8% 4.9% 4.0%

-2.7%

4.3%5.6%

2.6%

7.2%5.6%

16.1%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

Change in US GDP vs. Public Debt

GDP Debt

-3.7%

-0.5%

-2.3%

-3.3%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Fiscal Deficit as % GDPUS EU UK Japan

33.9%

61.7%

35.6%

131.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Central Bank Balance Sheets as % GDPUS EU UK Japan

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Oct

-09

Apr-1

0O

ct-1

0Ap

r-11

Oct

-11

Apr-1

2O

ct-1

2Ap

r-13

Oct

-13

Apr-1

4O

ct-1

4Ap

r-15

Oct

-15

Apr-1

6O

ct-1

6Ap

r-17

Oct

-17

Apr-1

8O

ct-1

8Ap

r-19

Oct

-19

Apr-2

0O

ct-2

0

Fed Balance Sheet ($B)6 Mo Change (RHS) Total BS

204

566

14

1,665

2,786

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

QE1 QE2 Twist QE3 QE4

Fed Balance Sheet Changes During QE Phases ($B)


Page 32 of 33

US Employment Landscape

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: NE = not employed (unemployed), FTE = full time employment, NLF = not in labor force, PTE = part time employment. Employment statistics based on civilian population 16 years or overs

6,451

9,358

10,326

12,797

14,109

20,459

21,646

25,033

36,591

Fin/Ins

Admin & Waste Mgmt Svces

Ag/Mining/Util/Const

Manufacturing

Food/Lodging

Healthcare

Trade

Govt

Other

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

US Non-Farm Employment by Industry (K)

111 113 116 118 121 124126 127 130 132

25 25 2424 24 24

25 25 25 25136 137 140

142 145 148150 152 155

157

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

US Employment (M)Private Government

FTE50.4%

NLF37.0%

PTE10.5%

NE2.1%

US Employment Statistics

8.3% 7.6%6.5%

5.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.7% 3.4%

63.8%63.4%

62.6% 62.5% 62.4% 62.4% 62.4%62.8% 63.0%

58%

59%

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

US Unemployment and Labor ParticipationUnemployment rate (LHS) Labor force participation rate (RHS)

6.9% 7.0%8.7%

22.8%21.2%

18.0%16.5%

14.2%12.8% 12.1%

3.6% 3.5% 4.4%

14.7%13.3%

11.1% 10.2%8.4% 7.9%

6.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan'20 Feb'20 Mar'20 Apr'20 May'20 Jun'20 Jul'20 Aug'20 Sep'20 Oct'20

Labor UnderutilizationU-6 U-5 U-4 U-3

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable Members

Page 33 of 33


Chair SIFMA ResearchEllen Zentner Katie Kolchin, CFA, Director of ResearchMorgan Stanley Justyna Podziemska

Ali [email protected]

MembersEthan Harris Michael Gapen Nathaniel KarpBank of America Barclays Capital BBVA Compass

Mickey Levy Douglas Porter Andrew HollenhorstBerenberg BMO Financial Citigroup

Nicholas Van Ness James Sweeney Michael MoranCredit Agricole Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets America

Peter Hooper Christopher Low Jan HatziusDeutsche Bank Securities FTN Financial Goldman Sachs

Michael Feroli Aneta Markowska John LonskiJ.P. Morgan Jefferies Moody’s Analytics

Troy Ludtka Michelle Girard Lewis Alexander Natixis NatWest Markets Securities Nomura

Carl Tannenbaum Augustine Faucher Scott J. BrownNorthern Trust PNC Financial Raymond James

Tom Porcelli Stephen Gallagher Lindsey PiegzaRBC Capital Markets Société Générale Stifel Financial

Seth Carpenter Jay BrysonUBS Securities Wells Fargo Securities

Setting the SceneStatus of the Economic EnvironmentRecapping Early COVID-19 ForecastsMindset as Populating the Survey2H20 Survey Results Highlights

The EconomyGDP Growth ExpectationsCOVID-19 Impact on the Economic OutlookRisks to Economic ForecastsLife after COVIDEmployment and the Consumer

Monetary PolicyAll Eyes Remain on the FedInflation ExpectationsInterest Rates and Credit Markets

Macro PolicyFiscal StimulusTrade PolicyRegulatory Policy

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable ForecastsReference Guide: Economic LandscapeUS GDP Growth and Comparison Across RegionsUS Debt and Fed Balance Sheet and Comparison Across RegionsUS Employment Landscape


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