siddhant chhabria (fmcg, appliances) … - 4qfy19... · 2019-04-10 · channels and rural demand...

Consumer

4QFY19E Results Preview

10 Apr 2019

Naveen Trivedi (FMCG, Appliances) [email protected],+91-22-6171 7324

Siddhant Chhabria (FMCG, Appliances) [email protected],+91-22-6171 7336

Madhukar Ladha (Aviation) [email protected], +91-22-6171-7323

Keshav Binani (Aviation) [email protected], +91-22-6171-7325

Himanshu Shah (Alco-Bev, Hotels, Lubricants) [email protected], +91-22-6171 7315

Rohit Harlikar (Jewellery) [email protected], +91-22-6639 3036

2

FMCG: Acceleration Is Delayed Acceleration in rural demand is delayed: Our FMCG coverage

universe is expected to deliver 11/12% YoY revenue/EBITDA growth in 4QFY19 (vs. 10/15% in 4QFY18 and 12/11% in 3QFY19). Highly anticipated acceleration in rural demand is delayed despite Govt’s fiscal stimulus drive and run-up to general elections. Rural growth is now growing at par with urban vs. recent peak of 1.3x and long term average of 1.5x. As per management commentary, liquidity in rural markets has not spiked as expected during the run-up to general elections, hence acceleration in consumption did not come through. On the other hand, urban growth continues to be healthy driven by robust growth in modern trade and e-commerce.

Gross margin pressure is now behind: Most FMCG cos return to price hikes after reporting gross margin decline in 3QFY19. As a result gross margin pressure will be arrested. We expect healthy gross margin expansion for Marico and Jubilant FoodWorks led by copra deflation and benign food inflation respectively.

4QFY19 Result Outliers: Jubilant FoodWorks and Marico

Consumer Confidence Survey signals bullish sentiments: In Mar-19 RBI’s consumer confidence survey signals improvement in consumer sentiments. ‘Current situation index’ makes a high since demonetization, while the ‘Future expectation index’ makes a high since 2014. As witnessed historically, bullish sentiments kickstart the consumption cycle which is then followed by income growth.

Outlook: We have a cautiously optimistic outlook on the sector. We expect demand environment to improve in the near term supported by (a) Fiscal and monetary stimulus, (b) Strong NPD pipeline coupled with aggressive A&P spends and (c) Normalized trade channels. However, the key risks to our estimates in FY20 could be driven by (a) Elongated rural stress, (b) Sharp commodity inflation and (c) Below normal monsoon.

FMCG: Expect 11% Sales And 12% EBITDA Growth

CONSUMER: 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Recommendation: We continue to like stocks where earnings acceleration is not fully priced-in and have enough tailwinds in the business. We recommend Jubilant FoodWorks and Marico.

In the near-term, Jubilant FoodWorks will benefit from (a) Cricket World Cup, (b) New launches and (c) Return to store expansion.

Marico is expected to benefit from (a) Onset of Copra harvest in Apr-19 which will result in further cost deflation and (b) Opportunity to reinvest GM expansion in aggressive A&P to support new launches.

We have rolled forward our target price for our coverage universe to Mar-21 EPS (earlier Dec-20).

Top picks in FMCG: Jubilant FoodWorks and Marico

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ITC

HU

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Bri

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Sales Gr. (%) EBITDA Gr. (%)

3

FMCG: Acceleration Is Delayed

COMPANY 4QFY19E

OUTLOOK WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES

ITC AVG

We expect cigarette revenue growth of 9% YoY, with 7% volume growth YoY (-3% in 4QFY18 and +7.5% in 3QFY19). Non-Cigarette business is expected to grow by ~13.5% (2% in 4QFY18 and 17% in 3QFY19) with FMCG/Hotel/Agri/Paper business to register 12/13/16/14% growth respectively. Restructuring in retail business will have an impact on FMCG growth but is favourable for EBIT margin

We expect cigarette EBIT growth of 9.4% YoY (7.6% in 4QFY18 and 8.8% in 3QFY19). FMCG EBIT Margin at 3.5% (3% in 4QFY18 and 2.4% in 3QFY19)

Overall EBITDA margin to dip by 46bps to 37.9% due to unfavorable base (+350bps in 4QFY18). EBITDA to grow by 10% YoY (7% in 4QFY18 and 11% in 3QFY19)

Cigarette volume growth

FMCG business EBIT margin

Recovery in Paper Business

Outlook on Agri and Hotel businesses

HUL AVG

We expect revenue growth of 10% (16% in 4QFY18 and 11% in 3QFY19). We model domestic volume growth of 7.5% (11% in 4QFY18 and 10% in 3QFY19)

We model 9.5/9.5/12% revenue growth in Home Care/PC/F&R segments, respectively

We build flat GM (155bps in 4QFY18 and -76bps in 3QFY19). Cost control initiatives will continue to benefit, we expect EBITDA margin to expand by 110bps YoY to 23.6% (+241bps YoY in 4QFY18 and +185bps YoY in 3QFY19)

Improvement in rural business

Commentary on competition, especially in natural products and oral care

Pricing actions and new launches strategy

Sustainability of cost saving initiatives

FMCG: 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4


COMPANY 4QFY19E


Nestle India AVG

We model 11.5% revenue growth (13% in 1QCY18 and 11% in 4QCY18). New product launches and aggressive marketing will support volume growth.

We model flat GM on account of increase in input prices. Aggressive ASP spend will continue and will result in EBITDA margin decline of 78bps. EBITDA to grow by 8% YoY (34% in 1QCY18 and -3% in 4QCY18).

Commentary on recovery in trade channels and rural demand

New product pipeline

Dabur AVG

Consolidated revenue to grow by 8% (6% in 4QFY18 and 12% in 3QFY19). We model domestic business growth at 9.5% with Hair care/oral care/health supplements/home care/food expected to grow by 9/9/9.5/13/4%. Extended winter will impact beverage business.

We expect international business to grow by 6% (11% in 4QFY18 and 3% in 3QFY19). Currency pressure is now behind, however demand environment is challenged in few economies

GM will be under pressure and expected to decline by 40bps to 50.3%. We model 5% increase in A&P. EBITDA margin to be flat to 23.8% (+206 bps YoY in 4QFY18 and -27bps in 3QFY19). EBITDA to grow by 8% YoY

Commentary on rural growth and wholesale channels

Any change in consumer preference towards naturals/ayurvedic products (mainly in oral care)

New launches strategy

Britannia AVG

We model 10% revenue growth (13.1% in 4QFY18 and 10.7% in 3QFY19) driven by volume growth of 7% (11% in 4QFY18 and 7% in 3QFY19)

Benign input inflation and cost-control initiatives would result in expanding EBITDA margin by 42bps YoY to 16.1% (192bps YoY expansion in 4QFY18 and 38bps YoY in 2QFY19). EBITDA to grow by 13%

Change in competitiveness post GST, especially after a rise in taxes in the value segment

Commentary on new launches

Commentary on the completion of plant


5


COMPANY 4QFY19E


Marico GOOD

We model 12.3% domestic revenue growth, with volume growth of 7.5% (1% in 4QFY18 and 5% in 3QFY19).

PCNO will enjoy price growth (driven by copra inflation) along with favourable base, we expect 16/11% val/vol growth. Saffola is expected to growth at 11/7% val/vol supported by base (-3% YoY). VAHO will be soft at 11/5% val/vol growth. International will grow at 10% (16% in 4QFY18 and 21% in 3QFY19), driven by portfolio diversification in Bangladesh and GTM initiatives in Vietnam

We model 125bps expansion in GM to 48%. We expect A&P spend to grow by 18% to support NPD. We expect EBITDA margin to expand by 116bps (-263bps YoY) to 18.2%. EBITDA to grow by 20%.

Commentary on copra prices post increase in MSP

PCNO pricing strategy post copra deflation

Updates on Saffola recovery

Commentary on CSD channel

NPD pipeline

Improvement in international business

Colgate AVG

We expect 8% revenue growth with 7% volume growth (5% in 4QFY18 and 6% in 3QFY19). Pan-India launch of Swarna and re-launches in core portfolio will curb market share losses.

We model GM decline of 65bps YoY to 65%. We expect that ASP expense would continue to increase in support of new launches and re-launches. We model 9.5% increase in ASP (13% of sales)

EBITDA margin will be flat at 28.2%. EBITDA to grow by 8% (26% in 3QFY18 and 11% in 3QFY19)

Toothpaste volume growth and market share change

Feedback on Swarna pan-India launch ASP spends, especially with increased

competition from Dabur


6


COMPANY 4QFY19E


Emami WEAK

We expect weak revenue growth of 6.7% YoY owing to sluggish performance from both domestic and international business. Domestic business will be impacted by late onset of summer, we model 6% revenue growth (10% in 4QFY18 and 7% in 3QFY19). Co is focusing on recovery with relaunches in its under performing brands like Kesh King, Healthcare range, etc. We model domestic volume growth of 3% (9% in 4QFY18 and -3.5% in 3QFY19)

International business to post 9% growth (37% in 4QFY18 and 18% in 3QFY19).

We model GM contraction by 167bps to 63.5% owing to steep inflation in menthol oil. EBITDA margin to decline by 64bps to 27.4% (-316bps in 4QFY18 and -209bps in 3QFY19). EBITDA to grow by 4% YoY.

Kesh King growth outlook Price hike strategy Commentary on new launches Outlook on Mentha oil Distribution strategy Commentary on international business

Jubilant FoodWorks

GOOD

We model 15% revenue growth, driven by 10.5% SSG (26.5% in 4QFY18 and 14.6% in 3QFY19). Our SSG estimates moderate given a high base. Focus has now shifted towards new stores. We model 20 Domino’s store additions in 4QFY19 (66 stores added in 9MFY19).

We model GM to expand by 110bps YoY to 75.4% (-256bps in 4QFY18 and 103bps in 3QFY19) drive by benign food inflation and benefit from new contract with PepsiCo. We model EBITDA margin expansion of 85bps YoY to 17.2% driven by favorable operating leverage. EBITDA to grow by 21% YoY.

Commentary on product launches Outlook on store addition in FY19-20 Competitive intensity, pricing strategy Outlook on sustainable SSG


7

Consumer Appliances: Seasonal Excitement Is Awaited Not an exciting quarter: Our coverage universe is expected to post

13/14% revenue/EBITDA growth (10/16% in 4QFY18 and 20/1% in 3QFY19). In 4QFY19, revenue growth is expected to be modest owing to (a) Extended winter impacting offtake of cooling products, (b) Higher channel inventory of RAC and air cooler and (c) Volatile commodity inflation.

RAC demand trends mixed: Timely onset of summer in south has led to healthy consumer offtake of RAC in Mar (unlike last year). In North and West extended winter led to muted offtake. However, based on our channel check consumer offtake improved post Holi (20-Mar) on a pan-India basis.

Focus shifts to seasonal performance: Despite weak 4QFY19 performance, the street will be closely monitoring consumer offtake during April and May which will set the tone for FY20 earnings.

Recommendation: On the back of a challenging FY19, these cos have an opportunity to mean revert towards their long-term average volume growth driven by a normal summer, pent up demand and 4 quarters of favorable base. Categories like RAC, Air cooler, Fans, Stabilizer and Inverter will opitcally report strong performance in the near term driven by healthy offtake. We like Symphony, V-Guard and Voltas. We have rolled forward our target price for our coverage universe to Mar-21 EPS (earlier Dec-20).

Our top picks in Appliances: Symphony, V-Guard and Voltas

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Note: V-Guard EBITDA growth is led by a favorable base (impact of one-time brand spend). Adj. EBITDA growth is at 22%.

APPLIANCES: 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Appliances: Expect 13% Sales And 14% EBITDA Growth

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Consumer Appliances: Seasonal Excitement Is Awaited

COMPANY 4QFY19E


Havells India AVG

We expect Havells (ex-Lloyd ) to register 18% revenue growth (18% in 4QFY18 and 29% in 3QFY19). We model 16/20/16/18% for Switchgears/Cables/Lighting/ECD. We model 13.5% growth in Lloyd (flat in 4QFY18 and 22% in 3QFY19) driven by price hike in AC and favorable base.

We model flat (ex-Lloyd) EBITDA margin (+119bps in 4QFY18 and -199bps in 3QFY19) owing to lag impact from volatile commodity prices and limited pricing actions. Lloyd, we expect EBITDA margin of 12.4% (12.4% in 4QFY18 and 1.7% in 3QFY19). We model overall EBITDA growth of 14%.

Outlook on housing demand

Commentary on new launches in consumer durables

Update on Lloyd’s Consumer business (channel inventory)

Commentary on commodity inflation and pricing actions

Voltas

WEAK

We expect consolidated net revenue growth of 11.6% YoY. UCP segment to report 9% growth (8% in 4QFY18 and -3% in 3QFY19), delayed winter will impact consumer offtake but last year Jan was impacted by pre-buying so favourable base to support primary performance. We model 14% growth in EMPS (5% in 4QFY18 and 16% in 3QFY19).

We model UCP EBIT margin contraction of 370bps YoY to 13.5% due to stiff competition, commodity inflation and inability to pass on cost (higher channel inventory). EMPS EBIT to expand by 70bps YoY to 8.3% (7.9% in 3QFY19)

EBITDA margin to decline by 158bps YoY to 10.8%. We model overall EBITDA dip of 3%.

RAC channel inventory

Competitiveness in RAC market

Outlook on EMPS revenue and margin


9


COMPANY 4QFY19E


Crompton Consumer

AVG

We expect 10% revenue growth, driven by 2.5% growth from Lighting (12% in 4QFY18 and -2.5% in 3QFY19) and 13% growth from ECD segment (10% in 4QFY18 and 16% in 3QFY19). Lighting growth will be impacted by EESL business (shift in focus to B2B).

We model 60bps decline in GM (+205in 4QFY18 and -135bps in 3QFY19). Cost control initiatives can expand EBITDA margin by 19bps to 14.8%. We model overall EBITDA growth of 11%.

Growth in premium fans

Commentary on GTM initiatives

Performance of new launches

Margin outlook for lighting

V-Guard Industries

GOOD

We model 14% YoY revenue growth (8% in 4QFY18 and 12% in 3QFY19) for the quarter. The co. will benefit from timely onset of summer in south (unlike last year), replacement demand owing to Kerala floods and price hike in C&W. We expect 12/11/8/12/18/15% growth for Stabilizers/UPS/Pumps/Cables/Water Heaters/Fans.

We model 8bps decline in gross margin (174bps in 4QFY18 and -205bps in 3QFY19) to 29.2%. V-Guard has spent significantly on brand rejuvenation during 4QFY18, therefore, reported EBITDA will grow significantly (we model 602bps to 11.8%, -356bps in 4QFY18). Adjusting the one-time brand spend, EBITDA margin to expand by 70bps YoY and EBITDA to grow by 22%.

Commentary on Kerala demand

Non-south performance

Performance of new launches

Outlook on input cost inflation and pricing action


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COMPANY 4QFY19E


TTK Prestige AVG

We expect net revenue growth of 12% (22% in 4QFY18 and 21% in 3QFY19). We model 13/10/13/20% growth in Cookers/Cookware/Appliances/Others respectively.

We model EBITDA margin expansion of 39bps YoY (131bps in 4QFY18 and 94bps in 3QFY19). We expect EBITDA to grow by 15.5%

Performance of new product launches

Commentary on recovery in trade channels

Commentary on rural demand

Commodity inflation and pricing actions

Symphony (Standalone)

WEAK

We expect net revenue to contract by 4.6% (-14% in 4QFY18 and -27% in 3QFY19) driven by higher than normal inventory in the trade channel and delayed winter. We model 10% revenue contraction in the domestic business and 16% growth in the international business.

We model gross margin decline of 258bps (+396bps in 4QFY18 and -553bps in 3QFY19) to 51.5%. We model EBITDA margin decline of 237bps (466bps in 4QFY18, -973bps in 3QFY19) to 29.5%.

Channel feedback

Inventory levels in trade channel

GST and erratic summer impact on unorganised players

Performance of Climate Technologies and other geographies

Outlook on exports


11

Financial Summary



Company NET SALES (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) EBITDA Margin (%) APAT (Rs bn) Adj. EPS (Rs/sh)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

3Q FY19

4Q FY18

FMCG

ITC 120.7 5.5 11.6 45.7 5.6 10.2 37.9 2 (46) 32.1 (0.0) 9.4 2.6 2.6 2.4

HUL 99.1 5.9 10.0 23.6 15.5 15.4 23.6 220 110 16.1 15.2 14.5 7.5 6.5 6.5

Nestle 30.7 6.1 11.5 7.6 26.0 8.1 24.8 392 (78) 4.7 34.8 10.1 48.4 35.9 44.0

Dabur 21.9 (0.3) 7.9 5.2 17.4 7.8 23.8 358 (3) 4.3 16.5 7.7 2.4 2.1 2.2

Britannia 27.9 (0.0) 10.0 4.5 (0.7) 13.0 16.1 18 42 3.0 1.6 15.8 25.4 25.0 21.9

Marico 16.6 (10.7) 12.3 3.0 (13.3) 19.9 18.2 (55) 116 2.2 (11.9) 20.7 1.7 1.9 1.4

Colgate 11.8 7.4 8.2 3.3 5.9 8.3 28.2 (41) 2 2.0 6.2 8.1 7.5 7.1 6.8

Emami 6.6 (18.8) 6.7 1.8 (32.3) 4.3 27.4 (544) (64) 1.3 (35.2) 6.2 2.8 4.3 2.6

Jubilant Food 9.0 (3.4) 15.1 1.5 (9.4) 21.0 17.2 (110) 80 0.9 (11.4) 25.6 6.5 7.3 5.2

Aggregates 344.3 3.0 10.7 96.3 7.4 11.5 28.0 114 21 66.5 4.7 11.2

Consumer Durable

Havells 29.7 17.9 17.1 4.2 41.9 16.9 14.1 239 (3) 2.8 42.9 20.5 4.5 3.1 3.7

Voltas 22.9 53.2 11.6 2.5 113.0 (2.7) 10.8 303 -158 1.8 124.4 (5.7) 5.5 2.7 5.8

Crompton 12.4 20.0 9.8 1.8 45.1 11.2 14.8 256 19 1.2 50.8 16.4 1.9 1.3 1.6

Symphony 1.5 (6.8) (4.6) 0.4 (8.8) (11.7) 29.5 (67) (237) 0.4 (7.9) (5.6) 5.7 6.1 6.0

V-Guard 7.5 26.6 14.2 0.9 96.9 133.8 11.8 420 602 0.6 90.0 17.5 1.5 0.8 1.3

TTK Prestige 4.7 (15.3) 12.3 0.7 (21.7) 15.5 14.3 (116) 39 0.4 (22.5) 18.8 38.1 49.2 32.1

Aggregates 78.6 23.8 13.2 10.5 46.5 13.7 13.3 206 5 7.3 48.8 10.2

12

Valuation Summary

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research NR: Not Rated | TP is fair value for Nestle India and TTK Prestige since we don’t have active coverage


Company MCap (Rs bn)

CMP (Rs)

Reco. TP

(Rs)

EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Core RoCE (%)

FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E

ITC 3,616 296 BUY 394 10.2 11.3 12.4 29.0 26.3 23.8 18.2 16.3 14.6 38.1 38.6 40.1

HUL 3,566 1,681 NEU 1,844 28.4 33.8 41.6 59.2 49.7 40.4 39.6 36.0 27.9 69.6 28.8 22.4

Nestle 1,038 10,770 NR 11,225 176.3 210.5 249.4 61.1 51.2 43.2 35.6 30.5 26.1 78.0 100.1 136.7

Dabur 711 404 BUY 485 8.5 10.7 12.8 47.5 37.6 31.6 38.2 31.3 26.4 47.7 54.2 60.5

Britannia 711 2,963 NEU 3,207 48.3 58.7 71.3 61.3 50.5 41.6 39.5 32.3 26.6 42.1 45.8 49.9

Marico 460 356 BUY 402 7.2 9.7 11.5 49.1 36.7 31.0 35.4 26.9 23.0 41.4 53.3 60.0

Colgate 335 1,231 NEU 1,260 27.8 32.2 37.3 44.2 38.2 33.0 26.3 22.7 19.7 68.7 77.9 89.1

Emami 187 402 BUY 534 11.7 14.4 16.9 34.4 27.9 23.8 23.8 19.6 16.9 23.6 30.9 37.8

Jub. Food 189 1,430 BUY 1,758 25.1 31.5 38.2 56.9 45.4 37.4 29.8 23.8 19.5 48.9 64.5 85.2

Havells 475 761 NEU 773 13.8 17.9 21.5 55.0 42.5 35.4 35.5 27.8 23.2 32.1 39.1 46.7

Voltas 202 609 BUY 670 17.0 20.8 24.7 35.9 29.3 24.7 24.2 21.2 17.5 42.2 42.6 45.1

Crompton 140 224 BUY 294 5.9 7.4 8.8 37.9 30.4 25.4 23.8 19.5 16.2 42.9 51.7 61.1

TTK Prestige 98 8,441 NR 9,293 169.7 198.7 232.3 49.7 42.5 36.3 31.6 26.8 22.7 23.4 25.3 26.6

Symphony 95 1,359 BUY 1,729 19.7 31.8 38.4 68.9 42.7 35.4 54.3 31.9 26.4 40.0 47.1 51.9

V-Guard 93 219 BUY 248 4.2 5.7 7.1 52.3 38.1 30.9 40.0 28.5 23.3 22.0 28.6 31.9

13

Aviation 4QFY19: When It Rains, It Pours!

AVIATION: 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

COMPANY 4QFY19E


Interglobe GOOD

Expect ASKM growth of 28.0% YoY and PLF of 87.7% Expect yield to improve by 12.0% to Rs 3.71 as a result of lower

industry capacity. Expect EBITDAR margin to be at 24.5%, +512bps YoY Net profit for the quarter is expected at Rs 10.3bn.

Update on A320 neo additions Incremental slot allocations Guidance on yields and pricing power Capex guidance for new aircraft addition plans View on industry capacity

SpiceJet GOOD

ASKM growth of 22.5%, with PLF of 94.0%. Yield to improve by +10.0% YoY at Rs 4.03/km. Expect EBITDAR margin to be 21.7%, (361 bps YoY). Net profit expected at Rs 1.34bn.

Situation of Max 8 future deliveries and compensation for grounding and delays ,if any.

Additional slots and aircraft received. Guidance on yields and pricing power.

4QFY19 saw turbulence in the Indian skies. Post Jet airways’ default on loans and failure of the erstwhile promoter and partner to infuse cash in the ailing airline, the Indian banks have proposed to take a majority stake (51%) in the airline. As the airline failed to meet its commitments to lessors as well, its aircraft were grounded and its operational fleet reduced from ~119 aircraft to ~20 by the first week of April. This has resulted in a severe reduction of overall capacity as Jet contributed to 20% of industry total ASKMs and 12% domestic ASKMs. Routes operated by Jet also reduced by ~75% to 150. This has resulted in an increase in fares and load factors for other players.

While the Jet saga dragged on, the crash of Ethiopian Airways’ Boeing 737 Max 8 eventually resulted in the global grounding of Max 8s from about mid Mar-19. Jet’s ~5 (of 119) and Spicejet’s ~12 aircraft (of 73) are Max 8s and were grounded. This further resulted in reduced capacity and increased fares.

Lastly, macros for the industry were also stable as crude prices averaged US$ 63.74/bbl below our assumption of US$65 for the quarter, while the USD averaged stable at INR 70.44. With crude prices and the USD in check profitability is expected to improve as competition capacity reduces whereas yields and load factors moves higher.

Outlook: We expect this benign environment to continue into 1QFY20 at the minimum as Jet’s aircraft remain grounded and restructuring and sale of the airline remain elusive. Interglobe is a big beneficiary as it continues to receive supplies of its A321 Neos and also gets to utilize some of the slots temporarily vacated by Jet. Spicejet on the other hand has suffered a loss of ~20% of its fleet and also faces delays on its Max 8 orders. Having said that the company plans to use short term leases to fill its capacity shortage. Both airlines continue to enjoy higher yields and load factors which we expect will materially improve profitability over coming quarters.

14

Change In Estimates



Interglobe

Spicejet


Particulars (Rs mn) FY19E FY20E FY21E

New Old % Change New Old % Change New Old % Change

Revenues 93,060 93,518 (0.5) 113,875 111,638 2.0 132,029 128,352 2.9

EBITDAR 14,543 11,695 24.4 20,589 20,821 (1.1) 24,242 23,797 1.9

Adj PAT (1,693) (5,222) (67.6) 2,062 1,193 72.8 3,832 2,973 28.9

EPS (Rs.) -2.8 -8.7 (67.6) 3.4 2.0 72.8 6.4 5.0 28.9

Particulars (Rs mn) FY19E FY20E FY21E

New Old Change % New Old Change % New Old Change %

Revenues 286,019 280,087 2.1 384,145 364,328 5.4 474,571 452,928 4.8

EBITDAR 46,932 42,756 9.8 96,531 89,454 7.9 126,806 120,899 4.9

Adj. PAT (1,552) (3,840) NM 24,190 19,403 24.7 35,686 31,914 11.8

EPS (Rs.) (4.0) (10.0) NM 62.9 50.5 24.7 92.8 83.0 11.8

15

Financial Summary


Company NET SALES (Rs bn) EBITDAR (Rs bn) EBITDAR Margin (%) APAT (Rs bn) Adj. EPS (Rs/sh)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (bps)

YoY (bps)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

Interglobe 79.9 0.9 37.8 19.6 22.6 74.1 24.5% 432 512 2.8 45.7 136.5 7.2 45.7 136.5

SpiceJet 26.6 7.1 31.2 5.8 26.7 57.3 21.7% 337 361 1.3 142.6 189.5 2.2 142.6 189.5

Aggregate 106.5 2.4 36.1 25.3 23 70.0 23.8% 407 475 4.1 67.4 151.4

Source: Companies, HDFC sec Inst Research

Valuation Summary

*Note – estimate based on IND AS Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

MCap

(Rs bn) CMP (Rs)

Rating TP

(Rs)

EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDAR (x) ROAE (%)


Interglobe 543 1,411 BUY 1,581 -4.0 62.9 92.8 NM 22.4 15.2 18.0 9.5 7.5 -2.2 29.7 32.1

Spicejet 58 124 BUY 132 -2.8 3.4 6.4 NM 28.1 15.1 11.2 8.1 7.1 N.A. -113.6 338.6

16

Alco-Bev: FY20 Year Of Consolidation!

ALCO-BEV: 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

United Spirits : Low base to support EBITDA growth

We expect UNSP’s volumes to de-grow by 3.6% YoY (P&A +5.6%, Popular -11.7%), revenue +2.3%, EBITDA 8.5% and PAT 1.7% on account of lower other income. De-stocking on account of label registrations, delay in license renewals in certain states to impact volumes.

Despite decline in gross margin (-212 YoY) on account of higher ENA and bottle prices; EBITDA growth to outpace revenue on account of lower employee costs, A&P spends and other opex.

UNSP stock has corrected by ~15% in trailing three months. We upgrade UNSP to BUY with TP of Rs 650 (40x FY21E EPS). Premiumisation and margin expansion are key re-rating trigger. Potential price increase in Karnataka (30-35% of UNSP’s volumes) could be positive. Sale of non-core assets (Rs 11 in our TP) over next 2-3 years is a additional trigger. Persistent increase in state excise levies leading to shift in consumer wallet share and lack of premiumisation are key risks.

UNSP registered revenue/EBITDA/earnings CAGR of 2/16/33% over FY17-19E. We estimate UNSP to report revenue/EBITDA/earnings CAGR of 10/17/20.5% over FY19-21E.

Radico Khaitan : Best is behind?

Radico reported flat earnings at ~Rs 0.7bn over FY12-17 due to subdued volume growth, lack of price increases from state government, higher raw material prices and steep increase in taxes.

However, Radico’s earnings rebound strongly over FY17-19E (51% CAGR) on account of curb on monopolistic distribution in UP (20-25% of RDCK’s revenue) w.e.f. Apr-18 leading to healthy volume growth, softer raw-material prices aided by captive manufacturing and price increases across majority of the states and balance sheet deleveraging (net debt down from Rs 9bn in FY16 to Rs 3.5bn as at FY19E).

In absence of price increases from state governments, increase in RM prices (both ENA and bottles); we estimate Radico’s revenue growth to moderate and margin to be flat (vs. expansion on 50 earlier ad mgmt guidance of 100) in FY20.

Reiterate BUY with TP of Rs 586 @ 32x FY21E EPS viz. 20% discount to UNSP. This is owing to latter’s large scale of operations, improving margins and potential sale of non-core assets that may reduce debt. Historically, Radico has traded at 27x 1-yr forward PE multiple. Healthy volume growth and mix improvement (premiumisation and higher share of whisky) is inevitable for further re-rating. With increased A&P spends (re-investment of gross margin expansion), this is likely.

We estimate Radico to report revenue/EBITDA/earnings CAGR of 8/9/14% over FY19-21E. This is against a CAGR of 12/28/51% over FY17-19E.

17

4QFY19E: Modest Performance


COMPANY 4QFY19E


UNITED SPIRITS Average

We expect the volumes to de-grow by 3.6% YoY. Revenue to grow by 2.3% on account of mix change and premiumisation.

We have modeled 135 YoY increase in the EBITDA margins. Decline in gross margin of 212 YoY on account of increase in RM prices, to be offset by lower employee costs, A&P spends and other opex.

Outlook on volumes, raw material prices due to increase in ENA prices, competitive environment and route-to-market changes, if any

Update on premiumisation

Regulatory environment especially excise hikes in light of impending elections and waivers by state governments

RADICO KHAITAN Weak

We expect Radico to report volume growth of ~2.2% YoY. Prestige and above to grow at healthy 16% and Popular to decline by ~2% on account of de-stocking due to license renewal and de-stocking. Revenue to grow by ~5.6% YoY (IMFL 6.7% and non-IMFL 2.5%).

EBITDA to grow by muted ~2% (post six healthy quarter of double digit growth) owing to base effect, softer volume growth, increase in RM prices and marginal impact from Rampur factory closure. PAT to grow by ~6%.

Outlook on volumes, price increases and raw material prices due to increase in ENA prices

Update on premiumisation and uptake of 8PM premium black whisky

Regulatory environment especially excise hikes in light of impending elections and waivers by state governments

18

4QFY19E: Financial Summary


Source : HDFC sec Inst Research

Peer Set Comparison

COMPANY

NET SALES (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) EBITDA Margin (%) APAT (Rs bn) Adj. EPS (Rs/sh)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

3Q FY19

4Q FY18

ALCO-BEV

United Spirits 22.23 (11.1) 2.3 2.97 (26.2) 8.5 13.4 -273 77 1.77 (24.6) 1.7 2.4 3.6 2.0

Radico Khaitan 5.08 (8.2) 5.6 0.72 (25.0) 8.0 14.1 -357 -151 0.38 (26.4) 12.3 2.9 3.7 2.6

Aggregate 27.30 (10.6) 2.9 3.69 (26.0) 8.4 13.5 -281 69 2.16 (24.9) 3.5

COMPANY MCap

(Rs bn)

CMP (Rs)

RECO TP

(Rs)

EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoIC (%)

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

ALCO-BEV

United Spirits 395.4 544 BUY 650 7.6 10.8 12.4 15.7 70.1 49.2 43.1 33.9 41.0 30.4 26.0 21.3 10.4 14.1 15.6 19.0

Radico Khaitan 50.8 382 BUY 586 9.3 14.1 15.6 18.3 41.9 27.6 24.9 21.2 21.1 15.8 14.6 12.6 8.3 11.3 11.6 12.6

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

19

Lubricants: Rise In Crude Price, A Headwind

LUBRICANTS: 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

COMPANY 4QFY19E


GULF OIL LUBRICANTS STRONG

• We expect Gulf to report ~31.3mn KL of volumes (+15.3% YoY). Revenues to grow by ~22.5%.

• Led by price increases and higher crude prices, we estimate EBITDA to grow by ~17.6%YoY.

• Drivers for growth are new product launches, focus on OEM tie-ups and expansion of distribution channels.

• PAT to grow at 16.3% YoY owing to higher depreciation on account of Chennai facility becoming operational.

• Reiterate BUY with TP of Rs 1,041 @ 22x FY21E EPS.

Outlook on demand environment, competitive intensity and impact of increase in crude oil price

Electric vehicle impact, if any in short term

20


LUBRICANTS: 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW



Valuation

COMPANY


4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

3Q FY19

4Q FY18

LUBRICANTS

Gulf Oil 4.56 (1.4) 22.0 0.74 1.4 17.6 16.2 46 -61 0.48 (3.3) 16.3 9.7 8.1 8.5

COMPANY MCap

(Rs bn)

CMP (Rs)

RECO TP

(Rs)



LUBRICANTS

Gulf Oil 43.5 875 BUY 1,041 31.9 35.9 41.1 47.3 27.4 24.4 21.3 18.5 18.1 15.0 13.2 11.4 42.9 37.6 38.5 43.6

21

Hotels: Healthy Quarter

HOTELS: 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19 overview: 4Q is second best quarter on a seasonal basis. We

expect the occupancy to witness healthy growth in business district

hotels alongwith moderate growth in ARR. We expect ARR to improve

by 3-4% for Indian Hotels and 6-7% for Lemon Tree.

Lemon Tree (LTHL)

LTHL is a leading mid-market (2-star to 4-star) hotel chain. It has

emerged as a dominant player with ~8% market share (FY17) in the

last decade. Medium term outlook remains robust due to healthy

pipeline and improving mix. LTHL’s owned rooms will grow by 50%

from 3,277 as of FY18 to 4,802 by FY21E.

LT opened its 2nd hotel in Pune (199 rooms) in Dec’18. and Red Fox

Hotel in Dehradun (92 hotels) in Oct-18 Performance of these hotels,

update on acquisition of Keys Hotel and entry into Students/Co-living

working spaces would be key events to watch out.

Indian Hotels

In a seasonally strong quarter, we expect Indian Hotels (IHCL) to

deliver a healthy 4Q with YoY growth of ~6.7%/14.1%/23.2% in

revenue/ EBITDA/APAT respectively. IHCL re-opened Taj Connemara,

Chennai in the last quarter which should boost growth.

We like IHCL owing to its strong brand equity, pan India footprint and

leadership in luxury segment, healthy EBITDA/Capital Employed (30%

in standalone) and significant scope for improvement in subsidiaries

(especially Ginger with repositioning).

Asset light strategy for expansions and monetization of non-core

assets are additional positives.

Outlook

Valuations for hotel companies are not cheap (>20x FY20E

EV/EBITDA), but the sector has potentials to transform itself from a

cyclical to a structural play with increasing travel demand from Indian

consumers, changing mix of customers, lower room penetration etc.

Indian Hotels is our top pick. BUY with TP of Rs 175 (20x FY21E

EBITDA).

Lemon Tree’s growth trajectory, execution excellence and focus on

cash flows/ROCE is indisputable. Healthy room growth, geographic

diversion and improving mix of keys in demand dense, higher ARR

markets will combine to triple EBITDA (Rs 1.4 to 4bn) over FY18-22E.

That said, Lemon Tree’s rich valuations (32/25x FY20/21E EBITDA)

leave limited margin of safety. These look even more expensive on a

proportionate ownership basis (~75%), adjusting for co’s stake in

subsidiaries. Reiterate Neutral with TP of Rs 76 (30x FY21E EBITDA

adjusted for company’s proportionate ownership of 75%).

22

Hotels: Healthy4QFY19E: Strong Performance Quarter


COMPANY 4QFY19E


Indian Hotels Strong

We expect IHCL to report YoY growth of ~6.7%/14%/23% in revenue/EBITDA/APAT respectively.

Occupancy trends

Competitive intensity and outlook on ARR growth

Room inventory expansion

Cost optimization initiatives

Performance of Ginger and international hotels

Lemon Tree Strong

We expect LTHL revenue/EBITDA to grow by ~15/41%, owing to new hotel openings (Pune and Dehradun). LTHL’s owned room inventory has increased by 9% YoY from 3,278 rooms to 3,570 rooms.

Occupancy trends

Competitive intensity and outlook on ARR growth

23



Source : HDFC sec Inst Research


Peer Set Comparison

COMPANY


4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (bps)

YoY (bps)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

3Q FY19

4Q FY18

HOTELS

Indian Hotels 12.20 (7.8) 6.7 2.79 (16.8) 14.1 22.9 -246 150 1.53 (10) 23.2 1.3 (10.1) 23.2

Lemon tree 1.52 5.8 14.9 0.54 10.3 41.5 35.7 147 671 0.02 3.4 250.6 0.0 3.4 250.6

Aggregates 13.71 (6.5) 7.5 3.33 (6.5) 7.5 24.3 -191 213 1.54 (9.9) 24.0

COMPANY MCap

(Rs bn) CMP (Rs)

RECO TP

(Rs)



HOTELS

Indian Hotels 181.1 152 BUY 176 0.7 2.9 3.3 4.3 230.9 52.8 46.0 35.4 30.1 24.1 20.3 17.6 4.1 5.0 5.8 6.2

Lemon Tree 61.7 78 NEU 76 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 440.5 189.9 138.9 69.9 52.5 42.5 31.7 25.0 3.1 3.7 3.7 4.9

24

Jewellery 4QFY19E: Capital Gap Dictates Performance

JEWELLERY: 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Our coverage universe is expected to register 15/22% YoY revenue/EBITDA growth during 4QFY19 vs 11/68% YoY in 4QFY18. Quarter remains muted for the jewellery industry with most-big box jewellers clocking (-)10 to 10% volume growth (per channel checks) as gold prices remain elevated in 4Q (6.6% YoY growth, 3% QoQ growth). However, Titan continues to perform well despite the slow growth in the industry. Titan is expected to report ~18% growth in Jewellery as 1. it continues to execute on the market share narrative. Cash starved peers are not expected to catch up until they fix this arbitrage. Channel checks across lenders also validate the squeeze in lending to the sector. 2. New launches perform well. Thangamayil is expected to report weak gold volumes (est: decline of ~8%). However, margin expansion led by better product mix to more than offset decline in volumes. The company is now on the cusp of resuming store addition cautiously with focus on SSSG growth.

Jewellery: Expect 15% Sales And 22% EBITDA Growth


(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Tita

n

Than

gam

ayil


25

Jewellery 4QFY19E


COMPANY 4QFY19E


TITAN GOOD

We expect growth of 17.7% YoY (13.6% in 4QFY18 and 37% in 3QFY19)in Jewellery business as Titan continues to put up a good show despite industry slowdown. Titan added 11 Tanishq stores (net) in 4Q. We expect gold grammage growth of 11.3% YoY.

Non-jewellery business is expected to grow by ~10.4% with Watches/Eyewear/Other business to register 13/19/-13% growth, respectively.

We expect Jewellery EBIT growth of ~18.3% YoY (61% in 4QFY18 and 76% in 3QFY19).

Overall EBITDA margin to expand by 53bps to 11.1% during the quarter.

Grammage growth and market share change

Outlook on jewellery demand

Outlook on Watches and Eyewear businesses

Non-jewellery business EBIT margin

Pace of network expansion

THANGAMAYIL AVG

We expect revenue decline of 1.1% YoY (-2.5% in 4QFY18 and 8.3% in 3QFY19). We model gold volume decline of 7.8% YoY (17.4% growth in 4QFY18 and -1.5% growth in 3QFY19).

EBITDA margin expected to be higher by 99bps YoY to 5.1% led by favourable product-mix and increased in-house manufacturing.

Adj. PAT to improve by ~96% YoY.

Grammage growth and demand outlook

Commentary on store renovation and expansion

EBIT margin

26

Financial Summary



Company NET SALES (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) EBITDA Margin (%) APAT (Rs bn) Adj. EPS (Rs/sh)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (bps)

YoY (bps)

4Q FY19E

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

4Q FY19E

3Q FY19

4Q FY18

Titan 47.6 -18.9 15.9 5.3 -19.8 21.8 11.1 -12 53 3.7 -23.2 19.2 4.2 5.4 3.5

Thangamayil 3.5 3.3 -1.1 0.2 20.3 22.7 5.1 72 99 0.1 71.4 96.0 7.1 4.2 3.6

Aggregate 51.1 -17.7 14.6 5.5 -18.9 21.8 10.7 -16 64 3.8 -22.1 20.4

Valuation Summary


Company MCap (Rs bn)

CMP (Rs)

Reco. TP

(Rs)

EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Core RoCE (%)*


Titan 975 1099 NEU 990 18.1 20.9 25.2 60.7 52.7 43.5 43.7 35.6 29.2 20.0 21.0 21.4

Thangamayil 5 334 BUY 575 24.0 29.7 35.2 13.9 11.2 9.5 10.7 9.4 8.4 8.7 9.5 10.1

27


Rating Definitions

BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-) 10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period

SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-) 10% returns over the next 12 month period

Disclosure: We, Naveen Trivedi , MBA, Siddhant Chhabria, PGDBM, Madhukar Ladha, CFA, Keshav Binani, CA, Himanshu Shah, CA & Rohit Harlikar, MBA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock –No HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. 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28

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siddhant chhabria (fmcg, appliances) … - 4qfy19... · 2019-04-10 · channels and rural demand...

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