sicp panel 11 encuesta

Survey Results: The Mexican Drug War

Results from two surveys conducted in the United States and Mexico by Harris Interactive and their Global Network partner in Mexico, Indemerc May 2010

US:• This survey was conducted by RDD telephone within the United States by Harris Interactive

between May 5 and May 9, 2010 among an initial sample of 1,009 adults ages 18+. Results were weighted for age, sex, geographic region, and race where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

Mexico:• This survey was conducted by telephone in the 8 largest metropolitan areas in Mexico

between May 7 and 9, 2010 among 549 adults 18+. The sample frame for this study is based exclusively on listed numbers using the Random Digital Dialing methodology and asking for the youngest male or female member in the household depending on the required quotas. The data has been weighted by gender, age groups, and socioeconomic levels for the 8 metropolitan areas based on official Census data and AMAI (Mexican Market and Opinion Research Agency Association)data for socioeconomic levels.

• IMPORTANT NOTE: The results of this poll are only representative of the population in these 8 metropolitan areas with telephone access in their homes and the results should be interpreted accordingly.

© Harris Interactive 2

Methodology

Americans have a high awareness of the war on drugs and recent events in Mexico. • Seventy-eight percent of those surveyed in the US know a lot or some about the war on

drugs in Mexico. This level of awareness is strong across all regions of the United States, including the states that border Mexico.

Despite the high awareness of the war on drugs in Mexico, few Americans feel that they or their family will be personally harmed by Mexico’s drug war. In contrast, Mexicans feel far more vulnerable. • 50% of Americans surveyed say it is not at all likely they will be harmed in any way due to

the war on drugs in Mexico.

• Only 33% of Mexicans say it is not at all likely they will be harmed. More than 40% say they believe it is very or somewhat likely they or their immediate family will be harmed due to the war on drugs in Mexico.

• Among those who live in US Border States, the risk to self and family is perceived as significantly higher. Only 39% say harm to themselves or their family is not at all likely, compared to 50% nationally.


Executive Summary – Awareness and Relevance

Americans are aware of the war on drugs in Mexico


A Lot40%

Some38%

Hardly Anything

10%

Nothing/Unaware

12%

A Lot51%

Some28%

Hardly Any-thing14%

Nothing/Unaware

7%

Among Border States

BASE: ALL US A RESPONDENTSQ1. How much have you heard, read or seen about the recent war on drugs in Mexico?

Almost 80% of Americans are aware of the war on drugs in Mexico. Among those who live in Border States, there is a higher intensity among their awareness

Americans are slightly less worried about their personal safety than Mexicans.


Worried (4-5)

Neither Worriedor Not Worried

Not Worried (1-2)

16%

16%

66%

0.41

0

0.59

Mexico US

Not at All Worried Nationally

(Rating 1 on a 1 to 5 Scale)

Not at All Worried Border States

(Rating 1 on a 1 to 5 Scale)

50%39%

Not At All Worried

US BASE: HEARD ABOUT WAR ON DRUGSMEXICAN BASE: ALL RESPONDENTSQ7.On a scale of one to five, with one being not at all likely and five being very likely….How likely do you think it is that you personally or someone from your immediate family may be harmed in any way due to the war on drugs in Mexico?

Border State residents are less likely to be “not at all worried” about their and their family’s safety from drug violence.

Border States

US Nationally

The majority (on both sides of the border) oppose United States’ military intervention.• The majority of Mexicans and the majority of Americans disagree with the idea of sending

the US Army to Mexico to collaborate with the Mexican army in the effort to control the drug war (57% of Americans oppose and 64% of Mexicans oppose).

• Sending government money is a much more palatable solution to help end the Mexican

drug war. – Forty-two percent of both Americans and Mexicans support sending US government

funds to aid Mexican law enforcement in training and combating the Mexican drug lords and narcos.

– The majority of respondents from both studies oppose this intervention, but the issue is polarizing for Americans along political lines. Democrats support this kind of financial help (54% support), Republicans oppose (63% oppose) and Independent’s oppose (61% oppose).


Executive Summary – Intervention

The majority on both sides of the border oppose United States’ Military involvement.


Yes/Agree

No/Disagree

39%

57%

36%

64%

Mexico US

BASE: U.S.A. HEARD ABOUT WAR ON DRUGSQ6.Would you support dispatching the US military to Mexico to help the Mexican government’s efforts in the drug war? MEXICAN BASE: ALL RESPONDENTSQ12.Would you agree or disagree if the U.S. army were to come to Mexico to collaborate with the Mexican army to aid the Mexicans government´s efforts in the drug war?

Using US money to support law enforcement training is slightly more popular, but still opposed by the majority.


BASE: U.S.A. ALL RESPONDENTSQ9.Since 2008 the United States government has provided hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment and training to Mexican law enforcement to combat drug traffickers, are you in favor of continuing to use money from the United States Government to train Mexican Police or do you oppose using money from the United States government for Mexican law enforcement to combat drug traffickers? BASE: MEXICO ALL RESPONDENTSQ18. During the last two years, the U.S. government has given the Mexican government hundreds of millions of dollars in equipment and training so that the Mexican army may combat the narcos. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the U.S. giving money to the Mexican government to combat the narcos? Do you Strongly agree, Somewhat agree, Somewhat disagree, or Strongly disagree?

Agree

Disagree

42%

54%

42%

55%

MexicoUS

Who’s to blame?

• American drug consumption is widely blamed. Eighty-eight percent of Americans say American drug consumption is to blame and 75% of Mexicans’ say American drug consumption is responsible for the Mexican drug war.

• Both Americans and Mexicans surveyed agree that the Mexican drug cartels and drug lords bear the most responsibility (90% of Americans say they are very/somewhat responsible and 87% of Mexicans say they are somewhat /very responsible).

• And, Mexican drug consumers are partly responsible, as well. Fewer Americans than Mexicans blame Mexican drug consumers for the war (67% compared to 81%).

• Mexicans place a significant amount of blame for the Mexican drug war on American gun dealers. Eighty-one percent say American gun dealers are very or somewhat responsible, compared to only 54% of Americans. Mexican drug dealers buy guns on the US side of the border, and use them in drug violence in Mexico.


Executive Summary – Who’s Responsible?

In both countries, the majority of respondents place responsibility on American Drug Consumption


BASE: ALL RESPONDENTSQ3. Thinking about the possible causes for the war on drugs in Mexico, for each of the following statements, please tell me if you think that the possible cause is Very Responsible, Somewhat Responsible, Not very Responsible or Not at All responsible.

Mexican respondents place a high level of responsibility on American gun dealers, as well. Corruption of Mexican and American authorities is also widely responsible.

Mexican Governors

American Gun Dealers

Mexican President Calderon

Corruption of American Authorities

Mexican Drug Consumers

Mexican Poverty

Corruption of Mexican Authorities

American Drug Consumption

Mexican Drug Cartels

76%

81%

80%

85%

81%

63%

88%

75%

87%

54%

55%

60%

67%

77%

84%

88%

90%

MEXICO TOTAL US TOTAL


• Agreement on both sides of the border indicates a strong chance for more well-coordinated policies and stronger enforcement of existing laws to help fight the drug war.• However, the lack of American relevance (feeling they/their families are

under threat) will somewhat blunt the force and speed of this change – change will likely drive forward from the border states first.

• Direct US military intervention is politically off the table on both sides, but greater awareness in the US and greater relevance will likely drive increased financial support to fight the war on both sides.

Cross Border Implications


Who is winning: Not the Mexican Government, four-in-ten say Mexico is a “failed state”

• Mexicans and Americans agree that the drug dealers are winning the war on drugs in Mexico.

• Seventy-five percent of Mexican respondents say the narcos are winning and 80% of American respondents say the narcos are winning.

• Mexicans rate their government’s success higher than Americans rate the Mexican government’s success. Twenty-three percent of Mexicans say the government is winning the war on drugs, compared to only 6% of Americans.

• This failure in battling the war on drugs may feed the attitude that Mexico’s government is failing. While the majority of those surveyed on both sides of the border do not believe Mexico is a “failed state,” there is a sizeable group of Mexicans and Americans (39% in both) who agree that Mexico is a failed state.

Executive Summary – Who’s Winning?

Both American and Mexican Respondents agree: The Narcos are winning and the Mexican Government is losing


BASE: ALL RESPONDENTSQ2. Based on what you have heard, read or seen about the war on drugs in Mexico, who do you think is winning the war on drugs: The Mexican government or the drug dealers?

Drug Dealers/Narcos

80%

Mexican Government

6%

Don't Know14%

Among American Respondents

Drug Dealers/Narcos

75%

Mexican Government

23%

Don't Know

2%

Among Mexican Respondents

Four-in-ten Mexicans and Americans see Mexico as a “Failed State”


Don't Know

Agree

Disagree

11%

39%

59%

0%

39%

61%

Mexico US

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTSQ8.Recently, some people have characterized Mexico as a “Failed State.” Do you agree or disagree that Mexico is a “failed state

Viewing Mexico as a failed state has significant policy implications and impacts respondents opinions about capability to impact the problem. .

Calderon’s image is polarized.


Agree Calderon Government Style

45%Disagree Calderon Government Style

55%

BASE: ALL MEXICAN RESPONDENTSQ2. Do you agree or disagree with the way that President Felipe Calderón governs Mexico?

A majority of Mexicans agree with Calderon’s handling of the war on drugs in Mexico.


Strongly Disagree

23%

Somewhat Disagree21%Somewhat Agree

33%

Strongly Agree22%

Refused1% TOTAL

55% Agree44% Disagree

BASE: ALL MEXICAN RESPONDENTSQ5. Based on everything that you know or may have heard, do you agree or disagree with the way that President Felipe Calderón has handled the war on drugs? Do you Strongly agree, Somewhat agree, Somewhat disagree or Not agree at all?

However, the vast majority of Mexicans think it is unlikely Calderon will have ended the drug war by the end of his term


Not at All Likely, 48%

Somewhat Unlikely, 33%

Somewhat

Likely, 19%

Very Likely, 1% TOTAL

20% Likely81% Unlikely

BASE: ALL MEXICAN RESPONDENTSQ6. Thinking about the future, do you think that President Calderon will have ended the drug war by the end of his tenure in December of 2012 or not? Do you think it is Not at all likely, Somewhat unlikely, Somewhat likely or Very likely?

The majority do not believe the Mexican government should negotiate with the Narcos to stop the drug war.


Disagree Agree

68%

32%

BASE: ALL MEXICAN RESPONDENTSQ16. Would you agree or disagree with the following statement: The Mexican government should negotiate with “narcos” in order to stop the drug war.

There is not support for legalizing Marijuana in Mexico or the US


Yes

No

44%

51%

28%

64%

Legalize Marijuana in the US

Mexico US

Yes

No

38%

46%

30%

69%

Legalize Marijuana in Mexico

Mexico US

Americans are slightly more supportive of legalizing marijuana in the United States, but the majority still opposes legalization. Mexican respondents are overwhelmingly opposed.

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTSQ4/Q5. Do you think that marijuana should be legalized in the United States/Mexico?

Even though Mexicans do not think the drug war is going to end, a minority are willing to leave for the United States.


No Neither Yes No Neither Yes

32%2% 2% 20% 8%

8%

0.57

0.06

0.36

0.28

89%

8%

56%

36%

Without “Papers” With “Papers”

BASE: ALL MEXICAN RESPONDENTSQ3/Q4. How willing would you be to leave Mexico to live in the United States “without papers” / illegally or “with papers”/legally?

More Mexicans are willing to leave with legal documentation, but the majority do not want to go to the United States.

Probably Yes/No

Definitely Yes/No

The Mexican Army is trusted more than state police to fight the drug war And, Calderon is trusted more that the local governor.


Caldero

n

Neither

Governor

Don't Know

Mexican

Army

Neither

State

Police

Don't Know

45%

33%

18%

4%

71%

19%

9%1%

In general, national authorities are trusted more to deal with the Mexican drug war than local authorities.

BASE: ALL MEXICAN RESPONDENTSQ13A. Who would you trust more to combat the druglords/“narcos”: President Felipe Calderón or your Governor?Q14. Who would you trust more to combat the druglords / “narcos”: The Mexican Army or your State’s Police Force?

Mexicans are divided: as many believe those killed in the drug war were innocent victims as believe they were “narcos”


Narcos/Drug Lords Innocent Victims

51%

48%

BASE: ALL MEXICAN RESPONDENTSQ15. Based on everything that you know or may have heard, do you think that the majority of the people killed during the war on drugs were with the “narcos” or innocent victims?

An overwhelming majority disagree with letting another 22,000 people die to end the war on drugs.


Strongly Disagree72%

Somewhat Dis-

agree12%

Somewhat Agree10%

Strongly Agree5% Don’t Know

2%

BASE: ALL MEXICAN RESPONDENTSQ17. The Mexican government has recently said that the death toll from the war on drugs during the last three years has been over 22,000 people. If having another 22,000 people die meant that the war on drugs would end, would you be willing to have another 22,000 dead in order to end the war on drugs or not? Would you Strongly disagree, Somewhat disagree, Somewhat agree, or Strongly agree?

The majority of Mexican respondents feel there is “a lot” of corruption among American authorities.


A lot Some None at All

66%

26%

3%

BASE: ALL MEXICAN RESPONDENTS Q19. Talking specifically about the drug war, how likely would you say that there is corruption among the U.S. authorities? Do you think there is A Lot, Some or None at All?

• Marijuana legalization is not the answer: The majority of Americans and Mexicans do not support legalizing marijuana in America or in Mexico. Fifty-one percent of Americans oppose legalizing marijuana in the United States and 64% of Mexicans oppose legalizing marijuana in the US. In Mexico, Americans are slightly more undecided, but 465 oppose legalizing marijuana in Mexico and only 38% support. Mexicans oppose legalizing marijuana in Mexico by a two-to-one margin (30% support and 69% oppose).

• The President will have a tough time mending the war: 45% of Mexicans agree with the way President Felipe Calderon governs Mexico. And, though 55% agree with how Calderon has handled the war on drugs, 81% of Mexicans think it is unlikely for Calderon to have the drug war under control by the end of his tenure.

• No strong desire to flee to the United States – with or without legal papers: Among those surveyed, only 36% of Mexicans would move to the United States with legal papers and very few (8%) would move the United States without legal papers.


Political Implications for Mexico

Demographics

28© Harris Interactive

US Population Mexican Population

Age

18-24 15% 18-24 19%

25-34 15% 25-34 27%

35-44 19% 35-49 30%

45-54 17% 50-64 16%

55-64 16% 65+ 8%

65+ 16%

GenderMale 48% Male 47%

Female 52% Female 53%

Race

White 66%

Black or African American 10%

Asian or Pacific Islander 2%

Hispanic 12%

Other/Don’t Know/Ref 6%

Demographics

29© Harris Interactive

US Population Mexican Population

EducationHigh School or Less 45%

College or Some College 46%

Graduate School 7%

Income

Less than $50,000 42%

$50,000 but less than $100,000 26%

$100,000 but less than $150,000 11%

$150,000 but less than $250,000 4%

$250,000 or more 1%

Region

East 22% Mexican City 57%

Midwest 23% Rest of Country 43%

South 33%

West 23%

sicp panel 11 encuesta

Health & Medicine