sibec and ecologically-based yield analysis
DESCRIPTION
SIBEC and Ecologically-based Yield Analysis. Del Meidinger MOF Research Branch. Predictive Ecosystem Mapping -- Technical Workshop May 26-27, 2001 Victoria BC. SIBEC. Site index (SI) estimates for biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) site series. IV. III. I. II. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SIBEC and Ecologically-based Yield Analysis
Predictive Ecosystem Mapping --
Technical Workshop
May 26-27, 2001
Victoria BC
Del MeidingerMOF Research Branch
SIBEC
• Site index (SI) estimates for biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) site series
Treeless estimate:
An estimate of site index that is not directly based on tree or stand mensurational data.
Rather, it is usually based on productivity data assigned to units in a land classification. I
II
IIIIV
Treeless estimates
1. Classify the landbase into units
2. Gather productivity data by unit
3. Calculate average productivities by unit
The land classification approach
1. Gather site and productivity data
2. Perform regressions where SI = f (site factors)
3. Predict productivities using best equations
The site factor regression approach
Site Index Tool
(stand level)
Ages mostapplicable
(yrs)
Data requirements
site index curve/table 30-150 age, height
growth intercept table 3-30 (bh) age, height
SIBEC <3 and >150 BGC unit, site series
The Suite of Site Index Tools
Use SIBEC estimates when:
• time and/or money constraints preclude mensurational sampling
• site identification is available or obtainable
• moderate accuracy is required
• stand conditions are unsuitable for alternate methods
A brief history of treeless estimates
Classified landbase into 7 capability classes and 19 subclasses based on climate, soil, and vegatation. Maps with interpretive labels were produced at 1:125 K to 1:250 K.
Class 2, Subclass M(moisture deficit)
“White spruce under good management can yield 91-110 cu. ft. per acre.”
2MwS5H
alF
Class 5, Subclass H(low temperatures)
“Alpine fir under good management can yield 31-50 cu. ft. per acre.”
Example of a CLI Forestry Capability map
Canada Land Inventory, 1967
IIb
A brief history of treeless estimates
Krajina, 1969 (British Columbia)
Ia
IVa
IWHa, Picea engelmannii
A B C D E
0
1
4
2
3
7
6
5
Contours drawn on the edatopic griddelineated site index classes for each species in a biogeoclimatic unit.
Beckingham et al., 1996 (Saskatchewan)A brief history of treeless estimates
a b k
Site Index
Ecosite
Bar graphs showing site index by ecosite, by species. Tables by ecosite phases by species.
PjSbAtEp
Cajander, 1909 (Finland)
Cajander’s forest type classification based on ground vegetation. Later studies assessed productivity.
Site index (m @ 100yrs) by site type(Mikola, 1983)
Grove-likeheath
Dryish heath
Pine 26-30 20-25
Spruce 26-33 17-19
A brief history of treeless estimates
Ecosystem Management in BC
Site Classification
Site association
Site series
Site phase
Climate Classification
Biogeoclimatic zone
Biogeoclimatic subzone
Biogeoclimatic variant
Biogeoclimatic phase
ZonalSite
BEC
Management prescriptions by site series
Banner et al., 1993 (Prince Rupert Forest Region)
Regional field guide provides approximate site index by site series, by species. Notes on limiting factors also provided.
0 10 20 30 40
01
PlSx
HwBl
PlSx
HwBa
ICHmc2
Site Index
A brief history of treeless estimates
05
SIBEC Project History
• high proportion of stands where height/age curve method is unsuitable
• collation of the SIBEC database (Thrower / Blackwell / Oikos, 1995)
• data cleaning and summaries (1995, 1996)• regression analysis (Nemec, 1996)• intensive review (Regional Ecologists, 1996-1997)
First Approximation of Site Index Estimates by Site Series for Coniferous Tree Species of British Columbia, published January 1998
05
02
09
01
Soil Moisture
Soil Nutrients
Edatopic grid and site series
Mean site index by site series
Mean site Index by grid cell
Producing the SIBEC
Database Means
Estimates
• Models fitted by zone - species groups• Best model chosen for each group• Regressed estimates reported by grid cell and by site
series• Some values extrapolated and interpolated
Regression AnalysisProducing the SIBEC Estimates
SI = f (BEC, SMR, SNR, interactions)
Regression Output
S M R A B C D E
VD 0
MD 1 27.6(0)
22.4(0)
20.1(0)
SD 2 21.6(0)
22.4(1)
23.6(1)
SD 3
F 4 25.0(0)
23.7(0)
24.5(0)
23.5(0)
M 5 26.1(0)
18.9(0)
25.6(0)
VM 6 37.0(0)
25.5(0)
W 7
SI=27.6n=0se=5.1595% CI=7.39
ICHmc1, Pl
Data poor
Regression Output
S M R A B C D E
VD 0 10.9(1)
11.6(0)
13.7(10)
MD 1 22.5(1)
23.1(1)
25.2(1)
28.9(1)
31.2(0)
MD 2 22.5(8)
23.1(69)
25.2(41)
28.9(2)
SD 3 27.9(0)
28.6(32)
30.6(65)
34.4(19)
36.6(0)
F 4 28.6(0)
29.2(4)
31.3(72)
35.1(25)
37.3(4)
M 5 30.7(0)
31.3(1)
33.4(3)
37.1(31)
39.4(10)
VM 6 30.0(0)
30.7(0)
32.7(0)
36.5(7)
38.7(8)
W 7
SI=31.3n=72se=4.1595% CI=0.87
CWHxm, Fd
Data rich
Regional Ecologists’ ReviewProducing the SIBEC Estimates
• provide broad coverage • smooth out deviations due to small sample size• impose reasonable ecological trends at the extremes of the
data
Using database means for support, ecologists adjustedregressed estimates to:
Ecologist SIBEC data ®ression output
Site Index Classes
Coast Interior
SI Class SI Class
… …14.0-17.9 16 10.5-13.4 12
18.0-21.9 20 13.5-16.4 15
22.0-25.9 24 16.5-19.4 18
26.0-29.9 28 19.5-22.4 21
… …
The SIBEC Guide
The SIBEC Guide
SISU Table
SiteSeries
Name Bl Fd Lw Pl Sx
01 HwCw - Falsebox 18M 24H 18H 24H 18M
02 Rhacomitrium - Cladonia X X X X X
03 FdCw - Prince’s pine __ 21L 24L 24M 18M
05 CwHw - Oak fern __ 24L 24M 24M 24L
08 CwSxw - Skunk cabbage X X X 18L 18L
Site Index Estimates by Site Series for Coniferous Tree Species of British Columbia
SISU
Free growing guidebook
Species Selection Table
SiteSeries
Name 1o 2o 3o
01 HwCw - Falsebox Fd Lw Pl Sx10 Bl
02 Rhacomitrium - Cladonia - - -
03 FdCw - Prince’s pine Fd Lw Pl - Bl
05 CwHw - Oak fern Fd9 Lw Sx Bl Pl -
08 CwSxw - Skunk cabbage Pl1 Sx1 Bl32 -
1 on elevated microsites 9 on south aspects10 on north aspects32 risk of frost damage
Species Selection Guidelines
Applying SIBEC
• Timber supply • SIBEC updates to MLSIS and ISIS• SITETOOLS, SIBEC look-up table
SIBEC for Timber Supply
spatial
non-spatial
Timber Supply
Analysis
TEM SIBECsamplingCANFOR Nimpkish
Interfor Phillips Arm
OASIS
PEMTelkwaNorth C.
WFP Vancouver Isl.
Bulkley TSA
SIBECtables
SIBECtables
Telkwa and North CoastStudy Areas
Ecologically based yield analysisusing site series to determine site
index
Data Flow
FC SI + VDYP => Standing volume
PEM/TEM => Area by site series (SS)
Management intent => species selection
SS+species => SIBEC => site index (SI)
species+SI => TIPSY => Yields
PEM + Yields => FSSIM => EcoYield
Telkwa area by age class and BEC variant
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 201-250 251+
Age class
SBS mc 2
SBS dk
ESSF wv
ESSF mk
ESSF mc
CWH ws 2
Area (ha)
North Coast area by age class and BEC variant
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 201-250 251+
Age class
Are
a (
ha)
MH mm 1
MH wh 1
CWH vm
CWH vh 2
Site series assignments
using EcoGen
Telkwa Forested Site series by BEC zone
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Site Series
Area (ha)
AT
SBS
ESSF
CWH
North Coast forested area by BEC and site series
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Site series
MH wh 1
MH mm 1
CWH vm
CWH vh 2
EcoGen determined site series
Next developmanagement assumptions.
Which species to grow?
Species regeneration - 4 scenarios:
Base: inventory species, use inventory SI
EcoA: inventory species, use SIBEC SI
EcoB: most productive species, SIBEC SI
EcoC: current practice species, SIBEC SI
Example Regenerated Species and Site IndexTelkwa - SBS - Base
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
6 8 9 12 15 16 18 20 21 24 27 28
Site Index
Area (ha)
P
S
B
H
Example Regenerated Species and Site IndexTelkwa - SBS - EcoA
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
6 8 9 12 15 16 18 20 21 24 27 28
Site Index
Area (ha)
P
S
B
H
Example Regenerated Species and Site IndexTelkwa - SBS - EcoB
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
6 8 9 12 15 16 18 20 21 24 27 28
Site Index
Area (ha)
P
S
B
H
Example Regenerated Species and Site IndexTelkwa - SBS - EcoC
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
6 8 9 12 15 16 18 20 21 24 27 28
Site Index
Area (ha)
P
S
B
H
SIBEC indicates the
site index
to expect for each species
The following graphs illustratethe result of the process -
Telkwa regenerated area by leading species
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Base EcoA EcoB EcoC
Management scenario
Interior Spruce
Lodgepole Pine
Hemlock
Balsam
Area (ha)
North Coast regenerated area by leading species
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Base EcoA EcoB EcoC
Management scenario
Yellow Cedar
Sitka Spruce
Lodgepole Pine
Hemlock
Redcedar
Balsam
Area (ha)
Telkwa regenerated area by site index
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Base EcoA EcoB EcoC
Management scenario
28
24
20
16
12
8
Area (ha)
North Coast regenerated area by site index
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Base EcoA EcoB EcoC
Management scenario
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
Area (ha)
Volume estimates
according to SI
VDYP, Spruce natural stands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
5 20 35 50 65 80 95 110 125 140 155 170 185 200Years
Volume m3/ha
SI 8
SI 9
SI 12
SI 15SI 16
SI 18
SI 20
SI 28SI 27
SI 24
SI 21
SI 6
TIPSY, Spruce planted stands 1200 sph
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
5 20 35 50 65 80 95 110 125 140 155 170 185 200
Years
Volume m3/ha
SI 8
SI 9
SI 12
SI 15
SI 16
SI 18
SI 20
SI 28
SI 27
SI 24
SI 21
SI 6
Timber supply
modelling results
Telkwa Harvest Schedule
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 50 100 150 200
Years from now
Volume (000 m3/yr)
Base Harvest
Telkwa Harvest Schedule
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 50 100 150 200
Years from now
Volume (000 m3/yr)
Base Harvest
EcoA Harvest
Telkwa Harvest Schedule
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 50 100 150 200
Years from now
Volume (000 m3/yr)
Base Harvest
EcoA Harvest
EcoB Harvest
Telkwa Harvest Schedule All Scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
0 50 100 150 200
Years from now
Volume (000 m3)
Base Harvest
EcoA Harvest
EcoB Harvest
EcoC Harvest
North Coast Harvest SchedulesBase case flow as per TSR2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 50 100 150 200
Years from now
Volume (000 m3/yr)
Base Harvest
North Coast Harvest SchedulesEcoA applies SIBEC SI to current species
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 50 100 150 200
Years from now
Volume (000 m3/yr)
Base Harvest
EcoA Harvest
North Coast Harvest SchedulesEcoB models the most productive species
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 50 100 150 200
Years from now
Volume (000 m3/yr)
Base Harvest
EcoA Harvest
EcoB Harvest
North Coast Harvest SchedulesEcoC models current regeneration
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 50 100 150 200
Years from now
Volume (000 m3/yr)
Base Harvest
EcoA Harvest
EcoB Harvest
EcoC Harvest
The accelerated short-term harvest leveldoes not impair long-term harvesting
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 50 100 150 200
Years from now
Volume (000 m3/yr)
North Coast base harvest
Telkwa EcoC accelerated short-term harvest
Telkwa base harvest
North Coast EcoC accererated short-term harvest
What makes the gain?
1. Higher SI means faster regenerated growth
2. Existing mature stands can be harvested faster
3. Replacement stands have larger volumes at earlier ages
Telkwa Area by seral stageBase Case
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
5 20 35 50 65 80 95 110 125 140 155 170 185 200
Years
Area (ha)
Old
Mature
Immature
Early
Telkwa Area by seral stageEcoC Scenario
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
5 20 35 50 65 80 95 110 125 140 155 170 185 200
Years
Area (ha)
Old
Mature
Immature
Early
North Coast Area by seral stageBase case
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
5 20 35 50 65 80 95 110 125 140 155 170 185 200
Years from now
Area (ha)
Old
Mature
Immature
Early
North Coast Area by seral stageEcoC Scenario
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
5 20 35 50 65 80 95 110 125 140 155 170 185 200
Years from now
Area (ha)
Old
Mature
Immature
Early
An alternative view is to model thebase case harvest level for allthe Eco scenarios.
This results in less disturbance ofthe forest in the long term.
Telkwa Area harvested for each scenario with the Base Case Harvest Level
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Years From Now
Area(ha/yr)
Base Case
EcoB
EcoA EcoC
Also, EcoGen/SIBEC increases the THLB by increasing the areaabove the low-site value. In Telkwa TSR2 low-site cutoffs are:
Spruce < 10 mBalsam and hemlock < 11
mPine < 12 m
Telkwa - Blue area would be included in the TSR land base
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
TSR Base EcoA
Are
a (h
a)
Less than Low-site cuttoff
Over Low-site cuttoff
Total area includedin this analysis
NC SIBEC Data -- Doubling sample size
No Change 42
Up 7
Down 0
Total 49
Pilot Project Limitations
• Telkwa– upper ESSF lower
SI– no new SIBEC
data– accuracy unknown
• North Coast– legacy BGC– size of area– accuracy unknown
Dealing with site classification and site index near boundaries
SBSmc2100%
SBSmc2/ESSFmc80:20
SBSmc2/ESSFmc60:40
SBSmc2/ESSFmc40:60
ESSFmc/01SI = 12
SBSmc2/01SI = 18
SI = 17SI = 16
SI = 14
ESSFmc100%
State of Knowledge
• still learning -- yield analysis– assumptions, effects
• uncertainties about PEM accuracy• SIBEC estimates -- 1st
approximation
Acknowledgements
• Management• Funding
• Research Br.• P.R. Region
• Funding• Project management
• Science Council of BC