sheppard
TRANSCRIPT
The contents of this presentation are the intellectual property of Idea Sciences and Institute for Alternative Futures. © Idea Sciences / IAF 2010
Confrontation Manager and Florilandia
Rev Ev© War GameMary Crannell, Idea Sciences
Ben Sheppard, Ph.D. Institute for Alternative Futures
July 24, 2010
Agenda
09:00 Afghanistan Narrative
09:30 Introduction to reverse war gaming: Rev Ev
10:00 Florilandia War game: Scenario briefing
10:20 Break (move to breakout rooms)
10:40 War game part A: Mapping human confrontations
break out rooms as assigned
11:40 Break – reconvene in plenary room
11:50 War game part B: Comparing groups’ perspectives
12:45 Key Insights
13:00 Close
War Gaming – Introduction
War Gaming is…
A strategic tool originally used by the military and refined for the public and private sector
A means of formulating strategy and developing tactical excellence
1–2 days’ competitive role playing to develop successful action plans for an increasingly challenging environment
What you get from War Gaming…
Innovative strategies to gain advantage in a changing world
An event that identifies robust strategies and pathways
How can War Gaming help you?
Test strategy in a safe, confidential environment
Map the likely consequences of decisions over time
Explore changes in the external and internal environment
Identify your organization’s strengths and weaknesses to build credible offensive and defensive strategies
Identify likely alliances under various scenarios
Assess risk from likely and less likely future developments
Map confrontations to understand the impact of immediate decisions in winning confrontations over time
Essence of Rev Ev War Gaming
CHANGE
RISK… AND OPPORTUNITY
UNCERTAINTY
WAR GAMING
creates
leads to
need for strategy
strategic action plan
War game structure
1-2 day meeting
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3Team(s):
interaction of people
War game outputs
Consequences of actions taken in round 1 carry through to rounds 2 & 3
input
input
External environment
variables
Time period 1
Time period 2
Time period 3
Objective: Create and explore hypothetical but credible scenarios Develop and test strategies, plans, and responses in a “safe” environment
Internal environment
variables
Return on investing in RevEv©
Reverse Evolution© wargames Produce more insights than standard wargames
Provides players with rich and credible opportunities to address uncertainty inherent across many futures
Leverage your resources and activities for any future
Roadmap capabilities to better prepare for any future
Increased awareness of early warning trends; improved organizational ability to take advantage of windows of opportunities
Biases leadership toward execution
Reverse Evolution Wargame©
Starts with a hypothetical yet credible condition, goal or requirement in 20xx
Includes the operational constants – people, information and things in time and space across PMESII-G. Political, Military, Economic, Informational, Infrastructure, Geophysical
Experts design backward from this scenario -- evolve in reverse -- finally arriving at 2015 and a set of initial conditions
Players execute these initial conditions forward in a wargame Shows systemic changes Can open strategic opportunities based on system dynamics
Typical simulation work-flow
Workshop 1 (1 day):Design Meeting
Identify key questions to build simulation around
Workshop 2(2-3 days):
Rev Ev Design
Identify initial conditions
Workshop 3(2-3 days)War game:
Develop and stress test new strategies and identify unintended consequences
Full Report:
Key findings & strategies
Our Process
Our approach accounts for complexity by:1.Exploring and exploiting conditions on an ongoing basis, and
2.Embedding the vision in the routine activities you perform every day.
FLORILANDIA CASE STUDY
Scenario Briefing: Florilandia background
Small hypothetical Latin American country of 8 million
Lacks good governance
Non oil growth rate low at 2% - hydrocarbons 50% down from 2000
Oil sector nationalized yet sector needs foreign investment & expertise
Florilandia faces economic disaster if economy not revitalized
Credit rating downgraded and threat of debt default looms with potential currency collapse
Some trade unions are restless with wage freezes
National Social Revolutionary terrorist group threatens resumption of violence
Trade Unions
Opposition :Pro private sector
Government(Legislature)
Government(Executive)
13
Florilandia Simulation
Private sector
President Ramón Robles; President of Petroflor; Minister of Energy and Mines
President of Congress; President of the Marxist Party
Mayor of Puerto Salinas ; Mayor of Azucena; former Minister of Energy and Mines; former Presidents (Norberto and Garcia)
Leader of the hydrocarbons industry Labor Union; Leader of the Federation of Unions (comprised of Transport Union, and the Union of Public Utility Workers)
President of Petrolera Internacional USAPresident of Petróleos Europeos
Media Editor of the Puerto (pro-opposition) ; VEA (pro government)
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Map Confrontations and Build Coalitions
Leverage Coalitions Implement compliance plan
TEAMS TEAMS TEAMS
Group Tasks
As your assigned group, identify: What do you want to achieve? What is your stated objective?
What do you want others to do to achieve your goal?
What will you offer other parties to get them to your view point?
What will you threaten and / or promise the other parties to keep them to your view point?
Room allocations
Room 302: BLUE / AZULGovernment (Executive) - Al Elkins
Room 305: YELLOW / AMARILLOGovernment (Legislature) – Mary Crannell –
Room 307: ORANGE / NARANJAOpposition parties (pro private sector) – Gustavo Coronel
Room 309: RED / ROJOTrade Unions – Ben Sheppard
Room 310: GREEN / VERDEPrivate sector (international oil companies) – Ricardo Castillo
Group Tasks
PART B:Do you believe the other parties view your threat as credible?
If your threat is viewed as credible, is it enough to persuade the other parties to your point of view?
Contact Details:
Mary Crannell, Idea [email protected] 299 3480
Ben SheppardInstitute for Alternative [email protected]