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lapopsurveys.orgSíganos en

July 2019

The Political Culture of Democracy in Ecuador

J. Daniel Montalvo, Ph.D. Director of Survey Research Operations

LAPOP

Table of Contents

2

The AmericasBarometer at Glance: Ecuador’s National SurveySection 1: National Problems

1.1. Economic Insecurity1.2. Crime and Insecurity1.3. Corruption

Section 2: Democracy2.1. Support and Satisfaction with Democracy2.2. Institutional Legitimacy2.3. Tolerance2.4. The Ecuadorian Voter

Section 3: Other Topics3.1. Migration Intentions3.2. Progressive Policies3.3. Trust in China and US Governments

Conclusion

Representative samples (national & subnational)

Standardized methods

Common core content from 2004 to present day

Face-to-face interviews

100% interviews audited for quality

100% e-devices

Open access to data & reports

Over 250,000 interviews

The 2018/19 round is scheduled to include 21 countries and over 30,000 interviews

2019 AmericasBarometer National Survey in Ecuador

• 1,533 face-to-face interviews (margin of error: ±3%)• Pretest: December 19-20, 2018• Training: January 14-15, 2019• Fieldwork: January 22 – March 19, 2019 • 100% of the data collected with electronic devices

Our team pretesting and training in Quito

4

Ecuador’s Sample Design

5

Nationally Representative

Stratified by region (Coastal, Sierra, and Amazon);county size (large, medium, small); andurbanization level (urban and rural)

Multistage, probability selection of primarysampling units and clusters

Clustered at the block level

Regions and Provinces in the Sample Design

Regions Provinces

Coastal Azuay, Bolívar, Cañar, Chimborazo,Cotopaxi, El Oro, Esmeraldas, Guayas,Imbabura, Loja, Los Ríos, Manabí,Morona Santiago, Napo, Pichincha,S.D. De los Tsáchilas, Santa Elena,Sucumbíos, Tungurahua, Zamora Chinchipe

Sierra

Amazon

6

LAPOP Gathers Data from 51 Counties (Cantones) in Ecuador

7

LAPOP’s mission is to:

Produce high quality public opinion data

Develop and implement cutting-edge survey methods

Build capacity in survey research and analysis

Generate and disseminate policy-relevant research

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/data-access.php

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/survey-designs.php

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/publications.php

Section 1National Problems

8

The economy continues to be the most important problem for60.4% of Ecuadorians in 2019 (down from 80.3% in 2016). However,the percentage of people reporting security and politics as the mostimportant problem has increased substantially since the last round.

A4. In your opinion, what is the most serious problem faced by the country?

9

3.2%1.9%

4.7%9.9%

80.3% EconomySecurityBasic ServicesPoliticsOther

Most Important Problem Ecuador, 2016

60.4%12.3%

2.3%

13.1%

12.0%

60.4%

EconomySecurityBasic ServicesPoliticsOther

Most Important ProblemEcuador, 2019

Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2016-2019; v.TS_20190627

1.1 Economic Insecurity

10

63.8% of Ecuadorians think the economy has worsened in 2019,up from only 20.0% in 2014 (red line below). Just a small fraction(5.9%) thinks the economy has improved in the last 12 months(blue line).

Perceptions of the National Economic Situation

SOCT2. Do you think that the country's current economic situation is better than, the same as or worse than it was 12 months ago?

11

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019

Worse

Same

Better

Source: © AmericasBarometer LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627

Perceptions of the Personal Economic Situation

IDIO2. Do you think that your economic situation is better than, the same as, or worse than it was 12 months ago?

48.9% think their personal economic situation has gotten worsein 2019. Only 8.8% of Ecuadorians think their economic situationhas improved, down from 25.2% in 2014.

12

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019

Worse

Same

Better


Household Income Over Past Two Years

Q10E. Over the past two years, has the income of your household

In 2019, fewer Ecuadorians (40.3%) reported that theirhousehold income has deteriorated in the past 2 yearsthan in 2016 (48.2%).

13

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

2010 2012 2014 2016 2019

Decreased

Same

Increased


More Ecuadorians (29.9%) reported running out of food over thelast three months in 2019 than in 2012 (21.1%).

FS2. In the last 3 months, due to lack of money or resources, did you ever run out of food?

14

78.9%

21.1%

78.9%

NoYes

Has Run Out of Food in the Last 3 MonthsEcuador 2012

70.1%

29.9%

70.1%

NoYes

Has Run Out of Food in the Last 3 MonthsEcuador, 2019


24.8% reported that an adult in their household has eaten onlyonce or not eaten an entire day in the 3 months prior to thesurvey (up from 18.7% in 2012).

FS8. In the last 3 months, due to lack of money or resources, have you or any adult in your household eaten only once a day or not eaten an entire day?

15

81.3%

18.7%

81.3%

NoYes

Eaten only Once/Not Eaten an Entire Dayin the Last 3 Months Ecuador, 2012

75.2%

24.8%

75.2%

NoYes

Eaten only Once/Not Eaten an Entire Dayin the Last 3 Months Ecuador, 2019


Percentage of Ecuadorians Looking for a Job

OCUP4A. How do you mainly spend your time? Are you currently... The figure above shows the percentage of Ecuadorians who are actively looking for a job

In 2016 and 2019, the percentage of Ecuadorians actively lookingfor a job is nearly three times that of 2012.

16

4.7%5.5% 5.5%

8.6%

17.4%15.7%

0

5

10

15

20

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 201995 % Confidence Interval(with Design-Effects)


Recipients of Bono de Desarrollo Humano (Cash Transfer)

CCT1B. Now, talking specifically about Bono de Desarrollo Humano, are you or someone in your house a beneficiary of this program?

The percentage of Ecuadorians who reported receivinggovernment cash transfers was cut almost by half in 2019compared to 2014.

17

24.2%

29.7%

18.0%16.7%

0

10

20

30

40

Hou

seho

ld B

enef

icia

ry o

fB

ono

de D

esar

rollo

Hum

ano

2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)


1.2 Crime and Insecurity

18

Crime Victimization

VIC1EXT. Have you been a victim of any type of crime in the past 12 months? That is, have you been a victim of robbery, burglary, assault, fraud, blackmail, extortion, violent threats or any other type of crime in the past 12 months?

Crime victimization rates in Ecuador have remained relativelystable. Since 2010, nearly 1 out 3 citizens report having beenvictimized in the 12 months prior to the survey.

19

29.1% 28.1% 27.8%30.4% 28.8%

0

10

20

30

40

50Pe

rcen

tage

(%)

2010 2012 2014 2016 201995 % Confidence Interval(with Design-Effects)


For the first time, more than half of Ecuadorians feel somewhat orvery unsafe in their neighborhoods.

Perceptions of InsecurityAOJ11. Speaking of the neighborhood where you live and thinking of the possibility of being

assaulted or robbed, do you feel very safe, somewhat safe, somewhat unsafe or very unsafe? Thefigure above shows the percentage of those who feel somewhat and very unsafe

20

38.8%

48.0%42.6% 42.9%

38.1%34.9%

47.6%

55.7%

0

20

40

60

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 201995 % Confidence Interval(with Design-Effects)


Belief that Courts Will Punish the Guilty

AOJ12. If you were a victim of a robbery or assault how much faith do you have that the judicial system would punish the guilty? Figure above shows the percentage of people who responded “Some” and “A Lot”

In 2019, there is a sharp decrease (13.6 percentage points) in thenumber of Ecuadorians who have faith that the judicial systemwill punish criminals, compared to 2016.

21

24.8%29.6%

36.4%

26.4%

40.6%45.1%

52.1%

38.5%

0

20

40

60

Perc

enta

ge (%

)



ARM2. If you could, would you have a gun for your protection?CAPITAL1. Are you for or against the death penalty for people guilty of murder?

A little less than half the adult population state that they wouldown a gun for protection. More than half are in favor of the deathpenalty for people guilty of murder.

22

46.5%53.5%

46.5%

YesNo

Would Own Gun for ProtectionEcuador 2019

Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627

58.6%

41.4%

58.6%

ForAgainst

Opinion on Death PenaltyEcuador 2019


1.3 Corruption

23

Perception of Corruption

EXC7 . Taking into account your own experience or what you have heard, corruption among public officials is... Figure above shows the percentage who think it is somewhat or very widespread (not asked in Ecuador in 2016)

The percentage of Ecuadorians who think that corruption amongpublic officials is somewhat or very widespread has beendeclining since 2006.

24

82.6%

92.0%84.3%

78.9% 77.3%70.3% 67.7%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201995 % Confidence Interval(with Design-Effects)


EXC7NEW. Thinking of politicians in Ecuador, how many do you believe are involved in corruption?

In 2019, the belief that more than half or all politicians arecorrupt increased 8.2 percentage points compared to 2016.

25

16.5%

27.4%56.1%

16.5%

None/Less that HalfHalfMore than Half/All

Corrupt PoliticiansEcuador 2016

11.9%

23.8%

64.3%

11.9%

None/Less that HalfHalfMore than Half/All

Corrupt PoliticiansEcuador 2019


The percentage of corruption victims has remained stable since2014 in Ecuador, at a rate of nearly 1 out of 4.

Corruption Victimization

CORVIC. Corruption Victimization Indicator

26

34.1%31.9%

25.6%21.1%

40.9%

26.3% 27.5% 26.6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Perc

enta

ge (%

)



Nearly 1 out of 4 Ecuadorians justify paying a bribe (up from13.6% in 2014).

Corruption Tolerance

EXC18. Do you think given the way things are, sometimes paying a bribe is justified?

27

19.2%21.2%

18.1%15.6%

19.5%

13.6%

27.2%25.4%

0

10

20

30

40

Perc

enta

ge (%

)



Section 2Democracy

28

2.1. Support and Satisfaction with Democracy

29

Support for Democracy in the Abstract

Satisfaction with the Way Democracy Works in Ecuador

ING4. Changing the subject again, democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? Figure on left shows the percentage who responded 5-7 in the original 1-7 scale

PN4. In general, would you say that you are very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in (country)? Figure on right shows the percentage of those who are satisfied and very satisfied

In 2016-2019, support for democracy dropped by about 10percentage points compared to earlier rounds. There is an evensharper decreasing trend in the percentage of Ecuadorianssatisfied with the functioning of democracy in the country.

30

30.7%25.0%

56.1% 54.6%

64.7%68.8%

52.1%

38.7%

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

enta

ge (%

)



61.5% 64.1% 63.3% 65.6%61.5%

66.7%

53.0% 54.4%

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

enta

ge



2.2 Institutional Legitimacy

31

More than half of Ecuadorians respect and support politicalinstitutions. However the majority feel their rights are not wellprotected, and more than 2/3 think courts do not guarantee fairtrials.

System Support Components B Series. To what extent do you… Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale

32

57.5%

51.3%

46.0%

36.7%

29.0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Respect for Political Institutions

People Should Support the Political System

Pride in Political System

Basic Rights are Protected

Courts Guarantee Fair Trial

Percentage 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)


Trust in Institutions of Representative

Democracy

More citizens trust elections and their local governments than the National Assembly and political parties

No institution of representative democracy is trusted by more than 43% of the population

33

42.9%

39.6%

33.0%

19.9%

0 10 20 30 40 50

Trust in Elections

Trust in Local Government

Trust in the National Legislature

Trust in Political Parties

Percentage (%) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)


B Series. To what extent do you… Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale

Trust in the Military, the Police, and the National

Court of Justice

Nearly 3 in 4 people trust the Military, but only only half trust the Police

Less than a third of Ecuadorians trust the National Court of Justice

34

73.1%

50.0%

32.3%

0 20 40 60 80

Trust in Armed Forces

Trust in National Police

Trust in the National Court of Justice




Trust in Other Institutions

More than half of Ecuadorians trust in the Catholic Church and the Media

Nearly a third trust the Evangelical/Protestant churches

35

57.6%

52.8%

34.0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Trust in Catholic Church

Trust in the Media

Trust in Evangelical/Protestant Church




Trust in government institutions has followed different patterns: whileboth the President and the National Assembly have experienced lossessince 2014, trust in the National Court of Justice is increasing. Trust inpolitical parties has remained stable since 2014.

National Assembly

President

Political Parties

National Court of Justice

Percentage who trust in the…

36

13.0%

7.1%10.0%

29.6%34.2%

45.1%42.6%

33.0%

0

20

40

60

Perc

enta

ge



10.9%

6.4%9.8%

12.9%

18.8%

23.0%20.3% 19.9%

0

10

20

30

40

Perc

enta

ge



51.3% 52.4%

61.9%69.0%

49.6%

31.2%

Correa

Moreno

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

enta

ge



17.9%

12.8%

17.5%

21.6%

29.9%32.3%

0

10

20

30

40

Perc

enta

ge



Figures shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale

Trust in the Armed Forces and the Police has increased since2004, but declined somewhat since 2016. Elections and localgovernment have experienced slight decreases in trust since2004.

Elections

Armed Forces

Local Government

The Police

Percentage who trust in the…

37

61.2%

44.3%

54.8%49.3%

42.9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Perc

enta

ge



45.1%39.5%

36.9%

45.9%43.0%

40.2%44.3%

39.6%

0

20

40

60

Perc

enta

ge



48.2% 47.6%52.5%

63.4% 63.8%

76.4% 78.8%73.1%

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

enta

ge



37.3%33.2%

24.6%

39.0%

48.8%52.9%

57.2%

50.0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Perc

enta

ge



Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale

2.3 Tolerance

38

Tolerance

Except for peaceful demonstrations, the majority of Ecuadorians disapprove of government critics’ political rights including the right to vote, make speeches, and run for office in 2019.

39

53.1%

40.3%

26.9%

24.5%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Approval of Government Critics' Rightto Peaceful Demonstrations

Approval of Government Critics' Rightto Vote

Approval of Government Critics' Rightto Make Speeches

Approval of Government Critics' Rightto Run for Office



D Series. There are people who only say bad things about the Ecuador’s form of government, not just the incumbent government but the system of government. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people's right to… Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 7-10 on the 1-10 original scale

In general, tolerance has increased from 2014 to 2016-2019.However, it remains low, especially for speech and running for office

Vote

Run for Public Office

Peaceful Protests

Public Speech

Approval of Government Critics’ Right to…

40

37.4% 35.6% 36.6%

41.6%

31.6%29.1%

41.1% 40.3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Perc

enta

ge



43.4% 44.1% 42.6%47.7%

36.8% 36.4%

50.7%53.1%

0

20

40

60

Perc

enta

ge



26.1%23.8% 25.2%

30.0%

21.0%

15.9%

26.0%24.5%

0

10

20

30

40

Perc

enta

ge



27.9% 27.7% 25.8%30.2%

22.7%

16.9%

25.6% 26.9%

0

20

40

60

Perc

enta

ge



Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 7-10 on the 1-10 original scale

2.3 The Ecuadorian Voter

41

In 2019, most Ecuadorians said they have little or no interest inpolitics.

POL1. How much interest do you have in politics?

42

8.8%

22.9%

35.4%

32.9%

8.8%

A lotSomeLittleNone

Political InterestEcuador 2019


VB1. Do you currently identify with a political party?VB10NEG. At this time, is there a political party that you dislike?

Many more people dislike a political party than identify withone.

43

22.9%

77.1%

22.9%

YesNo

Identifies with a Political PartyEcuador 2019


33.5%

66.5%

33.5%

YesNo

Dislikes a Political PartyEcuador 2019


If the next presidential election were being held in the week ofthe survey, most people would either vote for the opposition orspoil their vote.

VB20. If the next presidential elections were being held this week, what would you do?

44

10.4%

45.5%

41.8%

2.3%

Wouldn't voteWould vote for government partyWould vote for the oppositionWould spoil vote

Vote Intention in Next Presidential ElectionEcuador 2019


Section 4Other Issues

45

4.1 Migration

46

A little less than a third of Ecuadorians are considering emigrating,up from less than 20% in 2010.

Emigration IntentionsQ14. Do you have any intention of going to live or work in another country in the next three

years?

47

23.7%

17.7% 18.9%

30.1% 30.2%

0

10

20

30

40

Perc

enta

ge (%

)



Q10A. Do you or someone else living in your household receive remittances, that is, economic assistance from abroad?

In 2019, few Ecuadorians receive remittances from abroad.

48

5.6%

94.4%

YesNo

Receives RemittancesEcuador 2019


4.2 Progressive Policies

49

Gays’ Right to Run for Public Office (2019) Gays’ Right to Marry (2019)

D5. EnAnd now, changing the topic and thinking of homosexuals, how strongly do you approve or disapprove of suchpeople being permitted to run for public office?

D6. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of same-sex couples having the right to marry?

Most Ecuadorians strongly disapprove of gays’ rights to getmarried and to run for public office

50

22.0%

7.8% 6.6% 6.7%

13.0%

7.6% 8.7% 9.1%6.0%

12.5%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Perc

enta

ge

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Stronglydisapprove

Stronglyapprove


36.8%

9.2%5.3% 4.9%

10.5%4.8% 5.5% 5.5% 5.1%

12.3%

0

10

20

30

40

Perc

enta

ge

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Stronglydisapprove

Stronglyapprove


W14A. And now, thinking about other topics. Do you think it's justified to interrupt a pregnancy, that is, to have an abortion, when the mother's health is in danger?

There is a sizable majority of people who would approve ofabortion when the mother’s health is at risk.

51

63.2%

36.8%

Yes, it is justifiedNo, it is not justified

Abortion Justified When Mother's Health is at RiskEcuador 2019


3.2. Trust in China and US Governments

52

In 2019, more Ecuadorians trust the Chinese Government (46.5%)than the US Government (38.6%). However, trust in bothgovernments is decreasing.

MIL10A. The government of China. In your opinion, is it very trustworthy, somewhat trustworthy, not very trustworthy, or not at all trustworthy, or do you not have an opinion? MIL10E. The government of the United States. In your opinion, is it very trustworthy, somewhat trustworthy, not very trustworthy, or not at all trustworthy, or do you not have an opinion?

53

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

2012 2014 2016 2019

US Government

Chinese Government


Percentage who Think the Governments are Somewhat or Very Trustworthy

Conclusion

54

Main Findings

National Problems: The Economy

Public opinion of the economy is pessimistic: almost 2 out of 3Ecuadorians think the national economic situation is worse today thanit was 12 months ago

At the individual level, nearly half of Ecuadorians report that theirpersonal economic situation has deteriorated during the last year

40.3% saw their household income decrease in the last two years

Nearly 1/3 ran out of food in the last 3 months, and 1 out of 4 ate onlyonce or did not eat an entire day in the same period

The percentage of Ecuadorians who received the Bono de DesarrolloHumano dropped from 29.7% in 2014 to 16.7% in 2019

55

Main Findings

National Problems: Crime

The rate of crime victimization has remained stable at around 1/3of the population since our first measurement in 2010

Perceptions of insecurity, however, have skyrocketed: 55.7% ofEcuadorians feel somewhat or very unsafe in their neighborhoods(up from 34.9% in 2014)

There has been a sharp decrease in the percentage of Ecuadorians(38.5%) who have faith in the judicial system to punish criminals(down from 52.1% in 2016)

56

Main Findings

National Problems: Corruption

In 2019, almost 2 out of 3 Ecuadorians think that more than half orall politicians are corrupt (up from 56.1% in 2016)

The rate of corruption victimization, however, has remainedstable since 2014 (at around 26-27%)

In 2016 and 2019 more people than ever before in ourmeasurements think that paying a bribe is justifiable (27.2 and25.4%, respectively)

57

Main Findings

Democracy:

A little over half of Ecuadorians (54.4%) think in 2019 that in spite of itsproblems, democracy is the best form of government

Only 38.7% are satisfied with the way democracy works in Ecuador

Trust in Government institutions is rather low. The most trustedinstitutions are the Military (73.1% of Ecuadorians trust in thisinstitution), the National Police (50.0%), and local governments (39.6%).The least trusted are Congress (33.0%), the National Court of Justice(32.3%), and political parties (19.9%)

Tolerance towards system critics is improving, but it also remains low.53.1% approve of government critics to carry out peacefuldemonstrations, whereas only 24.5% approve of them running foroffice.

58

Main Findings

The Ecuadorian Voter

Most people (68.3%) have little (35.4%) or no interest in politics(32.9%) in 2019

Only 22.9% identify with a political party, while 33.5% dislike at leastone political party

If the next presidential elections had been held the week of thesurvey, only 10.4% would have voted for the incumbent party

59

Report Credits

Editors:Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Ph.D

Adam Wolsky

Auditor:Sebastian Larrea

All LAPOP reports and datasets are available at www.lapopsurveys.org

This study is made possible by the support of Vanderbilt University and the American People through theUnited States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this study are the soleresponsibility of the author and LAPOP and do not necessarily reflect the views of Vanderbilt University, USAIDor the United States Government.

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