making sense of the last 12 months - demystifying finance
TRANSCRIPT
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Making sense of the last 12 months
And the way forward
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A Wild ride
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Keeping Sanity Intact
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Keep stimuli in check
Don’t keep refreshing
● Worldometer covid dashboard● Stock price app● Twitter feed● Whatsapp / Telegram group● News website
Go read a book
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Are we in a bubble?
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Can you drown in a river which is on an average 3.5 feet deep?
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What is ‘E’?
● Was June 2020 quarter normal?● Was December 2020 quarter normal?● Financial companies?● Discretionary consumption?● Margins?
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Should P/E remain constant?
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An unnamed company
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Do not forget
● Monetary stimulus● Fiscal easing● Reform measures / Atmanirbhar / PLI / Scrappage policy etc.● PRIVATISATION● Pent up demand● Historical low margins / ROE● Wake up call for spring cleaning● Reduced competition / Increased pricing power
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Beware of
● Inflation● Interest rates● Fiscal tightening● Monetary tightening
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Indian 10 year Government Securities Yield
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US 10 year Government Bond Yield
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Copper Prices
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Steel Prices
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Don’t Panic(It’s just another day in the investment universe)