sevs scenario presentation
TRANSCRIPT
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Scenario planning - widening the perspective in SEVS
P A Martin Bö[email protected]@futuramb+46 704 262891
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Possible future
outcomes
Uncertainty in issue
Future
Uncertainty in time
Traditional prediction
Identify the most important trends and driving forces!
Blind ”spot” = great risk
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Possible future
outcomes
Future
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario C Scenario D
Traditional prediction
Uncertainty in time
Uncertainty in issue
Identify the uncertainties with most impact = critical uncertainties
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
ECOPOLITICAL
RADICALISM IN HARMONY
INCREMENTALDEVELOPMENT
ECOINDIVIDUAL
No change in transportation patterns by life style
Radical change in transportation patterns by life style
ProactivityPolitical control
Political passivity
The SEVS scenarios
Critical uncertainties
Scenarios
Scenarios
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Scenario planningprocess
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Externalenvironment
Transactionenvironment
Internalworld
Soci
al fa
ctor
s, v
alue
s
and
dem
ogra
phy
Technology
and innovationPo
litics
, law
s
and
regu
latio
ns
Environment and ecology
Economy, industries
and companies
Scenario planning assumes an outside-in perspective...
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
...and facilitates a search for underlying driving forces and critical uncertainties
Social factors, values and demography
Technologydevelopment
and innovation
Environment and ecology
Politics, lawsand regulations
Economy, industries and
companies
A B
C
D
E
X
GF
?
?
Driving forces- critical
uncertainties- predetermined
elements
Visibleeffects
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Scenario planning- meeting 3 challenges
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Possible future
outcomes
Uncertainty in time
Uncertainty in issue
Prediction
Future
Challenge 1 - Collective blind ”spot” due to ”group think”
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Possible future
outcomes
Uncertainty in time
Uncertainty in issue
Prediction
Prediction
Future Prediction
Prediction
Challenge 2 - Inaction (or scattering of resources) due to fragmented perspectives
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Technologies/knowledge/tools
Context/situation
Current
Future
Current Future
Solving today’s problems with today’s tools
(everybody)
Solving tomorrow’s problems with
tomorrow’s tools
Challenge 3 - balancing different groups, processes and knowledge areas
?Solving the problems of the
future with today’s tools
Analysts, politicians &
leaders
Solving today’s problems with
tomorrow’s tools
Engineers & researchers
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario C Scenario D
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
19www.sevs.se
2010 re
fere
nce
New fr
ont e
nd st
ruct
ure
Impro
ved
restr
aint s
yste
ms
80 km/h
spee
d lim
it for
City
Mov
ers
Pre-c
rash
activ
ated
safe
ty sy
stems (
360 deg
ree t
hrea
t sen
sing)
Auton
omou
s emer
gency
bra
king
Lane
keep
ing sy
stems
Navigat
ion sy
stems a
nd I2
V suppor
t sys
tems
Seatb
elts p
ositio
n occ
upan
ts ac
tively
bef
ore i
mpact.
Restra
int sy
stems a
daptiv
e to c
rash
type a
nd o
ccup
ant s
ize
Pre-c
rash
trigger
ing o
f res
traint
syste
ms
Booste
d em
ergen
cy b
rakin
g
Autom
atic
adap
tatio
n of s
peed
in ur
ban ar
eas
Autom
atic
inter
vent
ion d
ue to
driv
er in
atte
ntion
V2V com
munica
tion
Alco-lo
ck sy
stems
A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.
Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.
Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.
SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE
20 g/km
40 g/km
10 g/km
30 g/km
Same vehicle – different results!
WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2
Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.
To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.
A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.
Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.
Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.
Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.
19www.sevs.se
2010 re
fere
nce
New fr
ont en
d str
uctu
re
Impro
ved
restr
aint s
yste
ms
80 km/h
spee
d lim
it for C
ity M
over
s
Pre-c
rash
activ
ated
safe
ty sy
stems (
360 deg
ree t
hrea
t sen
sing)
Autono
mous e
mergen
cy b
rakin
g
Lane
keep
ing sy
stems
Navigati
on sys
tems a
nd I2
V support
syste
ms
Seatb
elts p
osition o
ccup
ants
activ
ely b
efore
impac
t.
Restra
int sy
stems a
daptiv
e to c
rash
type a
nd o
ccup
ant s
ize
Pre-c
rash
trigger
ing o
f res
traint
syste
ms
Boosted
emer
gency
bra
king
Automati
c adap
tatio
n of s
peed
in ur
ban ar
eas
Automat
ic int
erve
ntion d
ue to
driv
er in
atte
ntion
V2V commun
icatio
n
Alco-lo
ck sy
stems
A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.
Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.
Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.
SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE
20 g/km
40 g/km
10 g/km
30 g/km
Same vehicle – different results!
WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2
Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.
To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.
A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.
Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.
Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.
Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.
19www.sevs.se
2010 re
fere
nce
New fr
ont e
nd st
ruct
ure
Impro
ved
restr
aint s
yste
ms
80 km/h
spee
d lim
it for
City
Mov
ers
Pre-c
rash
activ
ated
safe
ty sy
stems (
360 deg
ree t
hrea
t sen
sing)
Auton
omou
s emer
gency
bra
king
Lane
keep
ing sy
stems
Navigat
ion sy
stems a
nd I2
V suppor
t sys
tems
Seatb
elts p
osition
occ
upan
ts ac
tively
bef
ore i
mpact.
Restra
int sy
stems a
daptiv
e to c
rash
type a
nd o
ccup
ant s
ize
Pre-c
rash
trigger
ing o
f res
traint
syste
ms
Booste
d em
ergen
cy b
rakin
g
Autom
atic
adap
tatio
n of s
peed
in ur
ban ar
eas
Autom
atic
inter
vent
ion d
ue to
driv
er in
atte
ntion
V2V commun
icatio
n
Alco-lo
ck sy
stems
A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.
Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.
Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.
SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE
20 g/km
40 g/km
10 g/km
30 g/km
Same vehicle – different results!
WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2
Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.
To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.
A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.
Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.
Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.
Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.
19www.sevs.se
2010 re
fere
nce
New fr
ont e
nd st
ruct
ure
Impro
ved
restr
aint s
yste
ms
80 km/h
spee
d lim
it for
City
Mov
ers
Pre-c
rash
activ
ated
safe
ty sy
stems (
360 deg
ree t
hrea
t sen
sing)
Auton
omous e
mergen
cy b
rakin
g
Lane
keep
ing sy
stems
Navigat
ion sy
stems a
nd I2
V suppor
t sys
tems
Seatb
elts p
osition
occ
upan
ts ac
tively
bef
ore i
mpact.
Restra
int sy
stems a
daptiv
e to c
rash
type a
nd o
ccup
ant s
ize
Pre-c
rash
trigger
ing o
f res
traint
syste
ms
Boosted
emer
gency
bra
king
Automat
ic ad
apta
tion o
f spee
d in
urban
area
s
Automat
ic int
erve
ntion
due
to d
river
inat
tent
ion
V2V commun
icatio
n
Alco-lo
ck sy
stems
A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.
Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.
Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.
SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE
20 g/km
40 g/km
10 g/km
30 g/km
Same vehicle – different results!
WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2
Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.
To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.
A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.
Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.
Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.
Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.
19www.sevs.se
2010 re
fere
nce
New fr
ont e
nd st
ruct
ure
Impro
ved
restr
aint s
yste
ms
80 km/h
spee
d lim
it for
City
Mov
ers
Pre-c
rash
activ
ated
safe
ty sy
stems (
360 deg
ree t
hrea
t sen
sing)
Auton
omou
s emer
gency
bra
king
Lane
keep
ing sy
stems
Navigat
ion sy
stems a
nd I2
V suppor
t sys
tems
Seatb
elts p
osition
occ
upan
ts ac
tively
bef
ore i
mpact.
Restra
int sy
stems a
daptiv
e to c
rash
type a
nd o
ccup
ant s
ize
Pre-c
rash
trigger
ing o
f res
traint
syste
ms
Booste
d em
ergen
cy b
rakin
g
Autom
atic
adap
tatio
n of s
peed
in ur
ban ar
eas
Autom
atic
inter
vent
ion d
ue to
driv
er in
atte
ntion
V2V commun
icatio
n
Alco-lo
ck sy
stems
A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.
Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.
Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.
SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE
20 g/km
40 g/km
10 g/km
30 g/km
Same vehicle – different results!
WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2
Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.
To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.
A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.
Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.
Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.
Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.
...and provides a common mental platform for thinking, collaborating and communicating in an uncertain and complex environment...
Scenarios widens the perception, captures the complexity...
...and is a powerful navigationtool when going down the roadtowards the future
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Technologies/knowledge/tools
Context/situation
Current
Future
Current Future
Solving tomorrow’s problems with
tomorrows tools
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario DScenario C
D
AB
C
SEVS scenario learning journey
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Scenarios are
– Stories - and not predictions
– Hypothesies - and not theories
– Divergent - and not convergent
– ...vehicles for supporting a collective learning process about the future in order to take the right decisions today
2010-06-15© SEVS 2010
Scenario planninglearning
thinking