Setting a Long-term Carbon Reduction Goal for Minneapolis

City of Minneapolis Health, Environment & Community Engagement Committee April 14, 2014

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4.889 mmtco2e

-14.88%

2012

5.7 mmtco2e

2006

4.882 mmtco2e

-15%

2015 4.0 mmtco2e

-30%

2025

Current Community GHG Reduction Targets

Why set a long-term carbon reduction goal?

“Global climate change risks are high to very high with global mean temperature increase of 4°C or more above preindustrial levels in all reasons for concern, and include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, and the combination of high temperature and humidity compromising normal human activities…”

-IPCC WGII AR5 Technical summary, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-TS_FGDall.pdf

Why set a long-term carbon reduction goal?

“The overall risks of climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change. Risks are reduced substantially under the assessed scenario with the lowest temperature projections compared to the highest temperature projections…Reducing climate change can also reduce the scale of adaptation that might be required. Under all assessed scenarios for adaptation and mitigation, some risk from adverse impacts remains.”

-IPCC WGII AR5 Technical summary, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-TS_FGDall.pdf

Mitigation scenarios in which it is likely that temperature change caused by climate change can be kept to “safe” levels (less than 2⁰ C) require 40 to 70 percent reductions in global CO2e emissions by 2050 compared to 2010.

-IPCC WGIII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf

Helps to justify the City’s engagement and involvement on long-term planning & development issues

Gives staff latitude to engage on issues that go beyond the 10-year

planning horizon

Involvement in long-term decision-making processes

Xcel Energy 2020 Projected Energy Mix (Based on current resource plans and energy forecasts)

Next Generation Energy Act Statewide GHG emissions reduction

• 15% by 2015 • 30% by 2025 • 80% by 2050

*all below 2005 levels

Hennepin County is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by the year 2050 as part of the Cool County Initiative.

37 US cities have articulated 80% plus goals or have demonstrated significant leadership in trying to achieve significant GHG reductions.

New York

Los Angeles

Chicago

Philadelphia

San Jose

San Francisco

Austin

Boston

Seattle

Nashville

Portland

Atlanta Albuquerque

Sacramento

Miami

Minneapolis

New Orleans

Cincinnati

Chula Vista CA

Tacoma

Alexandria VA

Hayward CA

Charleston SC

Berkeley CA

Richmond CA

Boulder CO

North Little Rock AK

Santa Cruz CA

Kirkland WA Olympia WA

Blacksburg VA

Annapolis MD

Falmouth ME

Burien WA

Galloway NJ

Alliance OH

Kansas City

Sources: O-H Community Partners, Innovation Network for Communities analysis

City Reduction Goal

Seattle 100% by 2050

Portland 80% by 2050

San Francisco 80% by 2050

Vancouver 80% by 2050

Fort Collins 80% by 2050

Boston 80% by 2050

Chicago 80% by 2050

Austin 40% by 2030

Los Angeles 35% by 2030

New York City 30% by 2030

Why choose a goal of 80%?

• Consistent with international scientific consensus on limiting warming to 2⁰ C or less

• Consistent with state and county goals, allowing Minneapolis to work collaboratively on long-term initiatives

• Consistent with the Energy Vision reviewed as part of the Energy Pathways Study

• Establishes Minneapolis among cities leading the way to address the challenge of global climate change

Recommendations:

Adopt a long-term community greenhouse gas emissions

reduction goal:

80% or more below 2006 levels by 2050

Staff will continue to refine methods and research best

practices for measuring emissions, including

consumption-based and other methods