session 5 - insightsm the key trends

Insights Emerging trends and their implications

contents

•  Hello!

•  What is a trend?

•  Some structural drivers of change

•  Trends to watch

•  Trends in reality

Hello

•  Head of Insight & Brand Development

•  Bring consumer to heart of the business

•  ShiB from research to insight

•  Businesses tend to focus on the issues but forget the context

•  Every issue is bedded in people

•  Research focus which helps build a strategic view of certain markets

What is a trend?

•  “a general direcHon in which something is developing or changing”

• Never standalone •  Influenced by numerous factors

such as demographics, economic indicators and innovaHon

structural drivers

•  Affluence

•  GlobalisaHon

•  Ageing PopulaHons

•  Digital RevoluHon

Affluence •  As wealth expands consumers grow

more confidents and begin moving beyond basic needs towards self esteem and self actualisaHon

•  Real value of family wealth in the UK doubled between 1987 and 2009, despite 4 recessions since 1980

•  Less about actual income and more about how confident we feel about our future

Source:ONS

Consumer Confidence

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Feb-88

Feb-90

Feb-92

Feb-94

Feb-96

Feb-98

Feb-00

Feb-02

Feb-04

Feb-06

Feb-08

Feb-10

Feb-12

Feb-14

Feb-16

Source:EuropeanCommission,2016

•  Based on 5 key measures around household financial situaHon, expectaHons, general economic expectaHons and a]tude to major purchases

Affluence •  As wealth expands consumers grow more

confidents and begin moving beyond basic needs towards self esteem and self actualisaHon

•  Real family wealth in the UK doubled between 1987 and 2009, despite 4 recessions since 1980

•  Less about actual income and more about how confident we feel about our future

•  Confidence is on the rise

Source:ONS

Globalisation •  Increased trade agreements, populaHon movements, the growth of travel,

networked news and technology are all driving increased globalisaHon

•  Last naHonal census:

7.5 million born outside the UK

•  In London today

26% English not first language

37% born outside the UK

•  Overseas visits have grown from 3million in the 1960’s to 56 million today

Source:ONS

Globalisation •  Increased globalisaHon can also drive us

more local

•  Local newspaper have held up well despite the virtual collapse of the wider newspaper industry – local news brands reach 40 million consumers per year

•  SNP success at the General ElecHon put down to strong local mobilisaHon

•  And a small town murder ….

Source:localmedia.org

Ageing Populations •  All major EU economies will see the 50+

populaHon rise

Source:ONS,ScoEshGov,GeneralRegisterOffice

Ageing Populations

Source:ONS/nVision

UK PopulaHon in 2011 and 2020 by age

Ageing Populations •  All major EU economies will see the

50+ populaHon rise

•  From 2012 to 2027 the UK populaHon age 75+ will double to reach 7.7million

•  Between 2006 and 2012 life expectancy in England & wales increased to:

79.1 for men

82.9 for women

•  Male life expectancy in Scotland increased from:

69.1 in 1981 to 76.1 by 2010 Source:ONS,ScoEshGov,GeneralRegisterOffice

Ageing Populations •  Ageing populaHons and longer life

expectancy resulHng in mulH-generaHonal families

•  Driving agelessness

•  Nearly 50% of children say they spend a lot of Hme with their grandparents

•  Grandparents carry increasing influence parHcularly with their improved financial security

Great Grandparents

Grandparents

Parents/ Aunts/Uncles

Siblings/ Cousins

Tradi&onalHorizontalFamily

ModernVer&calFamily

Source:nVisionKidsResearch

Ageing Populations

Digital Revolutions •  According to UN Global Pulse, more data

was created in 2011 than in the whole of human history

•  Digital adopHon is acceleraHng

Digital Revolutions •  According to UN Global Pulse, more

data was created in 2011 than in the whole of human history


Smartphoneownership

2012 2015

40%

62%

Tabletownership

2012 2015

14%

51%

Source:nVision,GilmourGraham

•  Recently ran a study that found 74% of kids aged 5 – 12 had tablet access

Digital Revolutions •  According to UN Global Pulse, more

data was created in 2011 than in the whole of human history


•  Recently ran a study that found 74% of kids aged 5 – 12 had tablet access

•  More than 80% of us have bought goods and services online

•  Boomers highest users •  Gen Y most likely to use mobile

Source:TargetGroupIndex

Digital Revolutions GeneraHon Z businesses

Founded 2005, more than a billion users

Founded 2004, 1.65 billion users, 4.5 billion daily likes

Founded 2006, 1 billion unique visits per month, 310 m monthly acHve users

Founded 2003 414m users

Digital Revolutions •  Big data, Google Glass, Amazon’s

driverless cars

•  Now TV could be watching you

•  MulHple patents pending …..

Digital Revolutions

“ theset-topdevicewillbeabletodis1nguish“ambientac1on…ofea1ng,exercising,laughing,reading,sleeping,talking,humming,cleaning,cuddling,figh1ng,par1cipa1nginagameorspor1ngevent,andtalking”andmore.Thatinforma1onwouldthenbeusedtodelivertargetedadstoyourlivingroom

”

Digital Revolutions •  Big data, Google Glass, Amazon’s

driverless cars

•  Now TV could be watching you

•  MulHple patents pending …..

•  Driving a shiB in societal networks –

• 22% of couples in the South East met online*

•  Expected to rise to 50% within 20 years

Source:eHarmony

•  Reward Me Society

•  It’s All About Me Society

•  Ageless Society

•  Experience Society

key trends

Reward Me

Reward me… the evidence •  The power of social media:

70 % of Gen Y use social media daily

55% of Gen X

40% of Boomers

Source:nVision

Reward me… the evidence

Source:nVision

Which of these have you used in the last month?

Reward me… the evidence •  The power of social media:

70 % of Gen Y use social media daily

55% of Gen X

40% of Boomers

•  Those on social networks use 2.1 networks on average

• 75% of kids age 12 – 15 like it when their posts or photos are acknowledged

Source:nVision

Reward me… the evidence •  CompeHHve facebooking is the act of

checking in or posHng on facebook to one up your friends, relaHves, or others that have it beter than you:

“We checked in at a really nice place, and shortly a4er he checked in at the old haunt. I think he is compe99ve facebooking”

• Daniel Gula9, Harvard Business Review, 2011:

“Facebook is crea9ng a den of comparison”

Source:HarvardBusinessReview

Reward me… the evidence •  CompeHHve TV

•  Top 20 most watched TV episodes consisted enHrely of 3 shows:

•  Great BriHsh Bake Off - peak 15.05m

•  Britain’s Got Talent – peak 12.75m •  Strictly Come Dancing – peak 11.93m

Source:ThePressAssociaXon

Reward me… the evidence

Reward me… the evidence GamificaXon:TheProcess

Reward me… the evidence •  GamificaHon being used across

mulHple industries

•  Linked with social media it drives recogniHon and achievement

•  Research example – Media Predict

•  Combines be]ng, with futures markets and wisdom of the crowds

•  85% success rate of predicHng box office numbers

Source:MediaPredict

Reward me… examples

htp://www.pactapp.com/#


htps://www.saveup.com/


htp://wimble.me/


htps://www.americasarmy.com/

It’s all about me

It’s all about me… the evidence •  The rise of the managed persona

It’s all about me… the evidence

Source:nVision,GoogleTrends

It’s all about me… the evidence •  The rise of the managed persona

•  Google searches for “selfie”, “unfollow” and “unfriend” on the increase

• 72% of heavy users of Instagram have de-tagged photos of themselves

Source:nVision

It’s all about me… the evidence •  “It’s important for me to be able to express

my creaHvity”

•  For those who feel strongly the main reasons are:

•  To saHsfy my need for new experiences •  To be just that bit different from others in the

way I express myself •  To stand out from the crowd

•  But not too much…..

Source:nVision

It’s all about me… the evidence •  Marketers already idenHfying a push

back on tribe referencing from Millennials

•  Recent fashion research indicates that Gen Z want to operate within the boundaries of “fi]ng in” whilst creaHng their own unique look

Source:PragmaConsulXng

It’s all about me… the evidence •  Marketers already idenHfying a push

back on tribe referencing from Millennials

•  Recent fashion research indicates that Gen Z want to operate within the boundaries of “fi]ng in” whilst creaHng their own unique look

•  Big brands catering to mass customisaHon

Source:PragmaConsulXng

It’s all about me… the evidence •  Rise of wish lisHng feeding

customisaHon and reflecHon of self to the outside world

•  Pinterest hit 100m acHve monthly users in 2015

•  Announced its intenHon to make pins shoppable

•  Wishlists already feature on most major retail sites

•  Bespoke wishlisHng businesses

Source:Fortune.com/Pinterest

h[p://www.wisher.com

It’s all about me… the evidence •  We are already building personal

media lists from web sites, feeds, likes on FB and VOD viewing

•  AdverHsing is the most targeted that it has ever been – as a result those who claim “adverHsing does not reflect my life” are in decline*

•  Nearly half of all social networkers have “liked” brands

Source:nVisionresearch

It’s all about me… the evidence •  A third of consumers watch on

demand TV weekly

•  More kids are watching TV on a tablet than on a TV set

•  Kids age 5 -12 are now more likely to watch catch up/VOD than live scheduling

•  “if they target me properly through Facebook and Twiter then yep, I’ll buy – I got caught for a pair of trainers last week” (GG Research fashion forward men age 25 – 55)

Source:Childwise,nVision,GilmourGraham

It’s all about me… the evidence •  Lifelong learning taking on new

meaning

•  Online searches for “learning new skills” on the rise

•  nVision esHmate that 13% of the populaHon are “leisure learners”

• 23% Boomers

• 35% Gen X

• 42% Gen Y

Source:GoogleTrends,nVision

It’s all about me… the evidence •  Self employment is trending upwards

•  Less than 3 million in 1980 •  4.5 million in 2015

•  Being driven by the over 50’s

•  Levels of entrepreneurs aged 50+ match the under 50’s for the first Hme

•  Driven by wanHng to make a posiHve change and take their desHny in their own hands

Source:OxfordEconomicsForecast,UKGlobalEntrepreneurshipMonitor2013,PRIME


h[ps://www.somewhere.com/juzmcmuz


h[p://www.sololearn.com/


h[ps://www.emotuit.com/social.html


h[ps://dabble.co/


h[ps://www.powrofyou.com


h[p://www.harrisandhoole.co.uk/app

h[ps://www.sharethebliiss.com/

h[p://www.wnewyork.com/

Ageless Society

An Ageless Society… the evidence •  GeneraHons and life stages are colliding

•  Over half of first Hme mothers were over 30 in 2014 •  Marrying later (age 30 now vs age 23 in 1966) •  Ge]ng a mortgage/leaving home

•  PosiHve role models: Michael Caine, Mary Berry, Tom Jones, Alan Sugar, Margaret Moun|ord

•  A third of over 75’s have taken on work post-reHrement, expressed intent of staying fit and agile

• 75% of adults believe that no one should be forced to reHre

•  An increasing number of life changing events post age 50 •  Marriage, divorce, re-marriage •  Career changes •  Recurring “once in a lifeHme” holidays

Source:nVision,NaXonalStaXsXcs,Dept.forCommuniXes&LocalGov

h[p://www.daphneselfe.com/press/

h[ps://www.karenwalker.com

Experience Society

Experience Society… the evidence •  As wealth increases we seek fulfilling

“experiences”

•  The recession drove a renewed emphasis on “family Hme” and building memories

•  40% of Britons love any excuse to celebrate

•  Travel abroad, holidays and short breaks and eaHng out have all boomed in the last decade

•  New landmark events are created

Source:nVision

Applying trends

Staff select their own rewards

+ +

Funding volunteering

+

Seed funding for employees who are would be entrepreneurs

Further reading •  Future FoundaHon Newsleter

•  Trendhunter.com

•  Fortune.com

•  Dailymail.com

•  MarkeHng Week newsleter

session 5 - insightsm the key trends

Documents