session 2: methodology for damage and needs...

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Session 2: Session 2: Methodology for Methodology for Damage and Needs Damage and Needs AssessmentsAssessments

Enhancing Poverty Reduction through Enhancing Poverty Reduction through Disaster Risk Management: An OverviewDisaster Risk Management: An Overview

World Bank Office, BangkokWorld Bank Office, BangkokFebruary 6February 6--8, 20068, 2006

Organized by the Hazard Risk Management Team Organized by the Hazard Risk Management Team (TUDUR)(TUDUR)

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation 2UN - ECLAC

QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER IMPACTSQUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER IMPACTS1.1. Damage costs and estimated lossesDamage costs and estimated losses2.2. Dynamic effect on growth and other Dynamic effect on growth and other

variablesvariables3.3. Composition of damage (by sectors and Composition of damage (by sectors and

type)type)4.4. Some discussion pointsSome discussion points

•• Data from ECLAC led disaster assessmentsData from ECLAC led disaster assessments


The importance of economic The importance of economic assessment of damage and needsassessment of damage and needs

nn Have a record on damage Have a record on damage caused by past eventscaused by past events

nn Establish link between level of Establish link between level of damage and magnitude or damage and magnitude or strength of a certain category of strength of a certain category of eventevent

nn Value losses to quantify needs Value losses to quantify needs for rehabilitation and for rehabilitation and reconstructionreconstruction

nn Put in evidence the benefits of Put in evidence the benefits of mitigation and reductionmitigation and reduction

nn Make information available to Make information available to potentially affected or exposed potentially affected or exposed communities (stakeholders)communities (stakeholders)


IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATIN AMERICA IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN –– 19721972--20052005(based on ECLAC assessments)(based on ECLAC assessments)

2,340.02,340.02,437.12,437.14,555.64,555.67,038.27,038.21,074,6631,074,6633,4903,490YEARLY YEARLY AVERAGE AVERAGE (on the basis of (on the basis of

ECLAC assessed ECLAC assessed disasters in Latin disasters in Latin America and the America and the

Caribbean)Caribbean)

77,221.077,221.080,424.380,424.3150,335.0150,335.0232,259.4232,259.435,463,89035,463,890115,176115,17619721972--20052005

External External impactimpact

LOSSES LOSSES (in flows)(in flows)

DAMAGE DAMAGE (to assets)(to assets)

TOTALTOTALDirectly Directly affected affected

populationpopulation

DeathsDeaths

TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE)TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE)AFFECTED AFFECTED POPULATIONPOPULATION

PERIODPERIOD


DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS (as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972(as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972--2005)2005)

29.6%44.5%55.5%Droughts

36.7%32.8%67.9%Non-climatic

29.9%36.4%61.7%Meteorological or climatic

33.2%34.6%64.7%total

Damage composition

8.82%10.88%8.02%8.91%8.82%0.07%Droughts as % of total

46%54%49%51%70%44%Meteorological as % of total

77,221.080,424.3150,335.0232,259.435,463,890115,176TOTAL ASSESSED EVENTS

3,1414,7125,88810,5992,200,00035Droughts

41,62137,12076,953113,33410,518,74564,752GEOMORPHOLOGICAL (SISMIC, VOLCANIC)

EVENTS

35,60043,30473,382118,92624,945,14550,424METEOROLOGICAL (CLIMATIC) EVENTS

External sector impact

LOSSES(in flows)

DAMAGE(to assets)

TOTALDirectly affected

population

Deaths

TOTAL IMPACT (constant 2004 prices)AFFECTED POPULATION


Why We Need an AssessmentWhy We Need an Assessment

nn To define a plan for reconstruction of assets, To define a plan for reconstruction of assets, including financial requirements, andincluding financial requirements, and

nn To formulate a program for economic and To formulate a program for economic and social recovery, that includessocial recovery, that includes¨̈ Lessening the negative impact on personal/family Lessening the negative impact on personal/family

income, livelihood and living conditionsincome, livelihood and living conditions

¨̈ Reduce negative impact on production and Reduce negative impact on production and overall economic growthoverall economic growth

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ECLACECLAC’’s methodology as a tools methodology as a tool

nn What it doesWhat it doesnn How it does itHow it does itnn What it providesWhat it providesnn Past and present experiencePast and present experiencenn Contribution to the futureContribution to the future¨̈ DisasterDisaster ’’s impact reductions impact reduction

nn Social and economicalSocial and economical

¨̈ Investment in increased resilienceInvestment in increased resilience


The vision and the mission: economic The vision and the mission: economic assessment reduces vulnerabilityassessment reduces vulnerability

VISIONVISIONnn Development is a systemic process, integrated Development is a systemic process, integrated

and integrating, sustainable if comprehensive, and integrating, sustainable if comprehensive, participative and inclujsive. Basic pillars of participative and inclujsive. Basic pillars of ECLACECLAC’’s vision are:s vision are:

¨̈ CompetitivinessCompetitiviness¨̈ EquityEquity¨̈ GovernanceGovernance¨̈ SustainabilitySustainability(both in the envronmental (both in the envronmental

and economic sense: equilibria of macro and economic sense: equilibria of macro variables coupled with growth and appropriate variables coupled with growth and appropriate use of natural resources preserving interuse of natural resources preserving inter--generational equity)generational equity)

¨̈ ResilienceResilience (by facing and reducing (by facing and reducing vulnerability in socioeconomic, environmental vulnerability in socioeconomic, environmental and political terms, providing better response and political terms, providing better response mechanisms in the face of external shocks, mechanisms in the face of external shocks, physical, economic, internal and external)physical, economic, internal and external)

MISSIONMISSIONnn Follow up, analyze and interpret the Follow up, analyze and interpret the

socioeconomic, environmental and socioeconomic, environmental and political process in the countries in political process in the countries in the region (improve comparative the region (improve comparative analysis and promote dialogue)analysis and promote dialogue)

nn Provide technical assistance in policy Provide technical assistance in policy formulation and contribute to the formulation and contribute to the debate on development paradigmsdebate on development paradigms

nn Promote studies that focus on Promote studies that focus on development issues and advance the development issues and advance the MDGsMDGs

nn Promote diaologue among the Promote diaologue among the different stakeholders in the decision different stakeholders in the decision making process (private sector, public making process (private sector, public officials, academia, NGOs, etc.)officials, academia, NGOs, etc.)

nn Collaborate with other agencies and Collaborate with other agencies and organizations in the UN family and organizations in the UN family and donor community in common goals donor community in common goals and in assistance to countriesand in assistance to countries

nn Promote cooperation and integration Promote cooperation and integration initiatives at the national, sub regional initiatives at the national, sub regional and regional levelsand regional levels


ECLACECLAC’’s experience over 30 yearss experience over 30 yearsFrom 1973 in Central America to 2004 Hurricanes in the From 1973 in Central America to 2004 Hurricanes in the Caribbean and 2005 Indian Ocean disaster (Indonesia)Caribbean and 2005 Indian Ocean disaster (Indonesia)

nn What it does: provide a standardized sectoral tool, What it does: provide a standardized sectoral tool, increasingly internationally accepted valuation of increasingly internationally accepted valuation of disaster damage (physical, in assets, capital, stock, disaster damage (physical, in assets, capital, stock, material goods) and losses (in flows of goods and material goods) and losses (in flows of goods and services, in income, in costs)services, in income, in costs)

nn How it does it: by sector analysis comparing the pre How it does it: by sector analysis comparing the pre disaster, the non disaster expected outcome and the disaster, the non disaster expected outcome and the postpost--disaster scenariodisaster scenario

nn What it provides: a valuation that identifies the gap What it provides: a valuation that identifies the gap (delta) to be filled, sector by sector (pointing to (delta) to be filled, sector by sector (pointing to priorities of sectors, location and social stratification priorities of sectors, location and social stratification of damage and losses), and a tool for reconstruction of damage and losses), and a tool for reconstruction strategic planning (needs assessment beyond strategic planning (needs assessment beyond emergency and humanitarian assistance)emergency and humanitarian assistance)


The assessment (following the The assessment (following the methodology)methodology)

nn Basic conceptsBasic concepts¨̈ Damage (Stocks)Damage (Stocks)¨̈ Losses (Flows)Losses (Flows)¨̈ Needs. Two types, at different moments: Needs. Two types, at different moments:

nn in the emergency (humanitarian, shelter, basic needs)in the emergency (humanitarian, shelter, basic needs)nn In the reconstruction (based on consensus with affected In the reconstruction (based on consensus with affected

population on strategy, process and resources, leading population on strategy, process and resources, leading to resilience)to resilience)

¨̈ Global effects or total impact:Global effects or total impact:nn MacroeconomicMacroeconomicnn EnvironmentalEnvironmentalnn GenderGender


What is obtainedWhat is obtained

nn A quantitative and qualitative A quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of the assessment of the impact of the disaster (direct & indirect assessment disaster (direct & indirect assessment of damages)of damages)

nn Implication on diverse indicators of the Implication on diverse indicators of the economic and social conditions in the economic and social conditions in the country or region affected.country or region affected.


Assessment MethodologyAssessment MethodologyTemperature,Temperature,

Sea water levelSea water levelClimateClimate

VariabilityVariability(mean and(mean and

Extreme values)Extreme values)

Effects onEffects onAssetsAssets

Changes in Changes in Economic FlowsEconomic Flows

ReconstructionReconstructionOf AssetsOf Assets

-- Changes in MacroChanges in Macro--Economic Economic PerformancePerformance-- Welfare impactWelfare impact

DisasterDisasterRecovery andRecovery and

ReconstructionReconstructionInvestmentInvestment

PortfolioPortfolio

Thresholds Thresholds andand

variationvariation

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Private investmentPrivate investmentProjects and resource fund raising

Decomposition of total damageDecomposition of total damage

••Direct damageDirect damage••Indirect effectsIndirect effects

•• Asset lossesAsset losses•• Production costsProduction costs•• Cost increasesCost increases••Income reductionIncome reduction

••Public sectorPublic sectorPrivate sectorPrivate sector

Reconstruction costsReconstruction costs

Effects on the economyEffects on the economy

Primary damagePrimary damage

Secondary effectsSecondary effects

Tertiary impactTertiary impact

Public investmentPublic investment


nn Social SectorsSocial Sectors¨̈ HousingHousing¨̈ HealthHealth¨̈ Education, culture, Education, culture,

sportssportsnn InfrastructureInfrastructure

¨̈ Transport and Transport and communicationscommunications

¨̈ EnergyEnergy¨̈ Water and sewerageWater and sewerage

nn Productive sectors Productive sectors ¨̈ Goods: agriculture, industryGoods: agriculture, industry¨̈ Services: commerce, tourism, Services: commerce, tourism,

etc.etc.

nn Global impactGlobal impact¨̈ On the environmentOn the environment¨̈ Gender perspectiveGender perspective¨̈ Employment and social Employment and social

conditionsconditions¨̈ Macroeconomic Macroeconomic

assessmentassessment

SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY


∆∆D = Va D = Va –– VbVb

Where Va is the initial condition expected for a variable (sectoWhere Va is the initial condition expected for a variable (sectoral, ral, weighed) and Vb is the discounted effect of the disaster.weighed) and Vb is the discounted effect of the disaster.

∆∆ K = Ka K = Ka –– KbKbMeasures the capital (assets) lost, estimated by compiling direcMeasures the capital (assets) lost, estimated by compiling direct t

damages computed sector by sector.damages computed sector by sector.

DY = Ya DY = Ya –– YbYbMeasures the production/income lossesMeasures the production/income losses

The capital/incomeThe capital/income--production ratio is generally production ratio is generally assumed not to vary substantively as a result of the assumed not to vary substantively as a result of the disasterdisaster


Measuring the cost of impact Measuring the cost of impact (and mitigation or adaptation)(and mitigation or adaptation)

Baseline situation Baseline situation (ex ante)(ex ante)

Historical trend Historical trend (without climate (without climate

change)change)based on past performance based on past performance

of economyof economy

Cimate change Cimate change (ex post)(ex post)

To include expected orTo include expected ordesired investmentdesired investment

Measurement of impactsMeasurement of impacts

Direct and indirectDirect and indirectOver the preexisting situation (baseline, historical trend, Over the preexisting situation (baseline, historical trend,

by sector)by sector)Carried into the national accounts as effect on value added and Carried into the national accounts as effect on value added and estimated estimated for alternative scenarios as the gap between trend and scenario for alternative scenarios as the gap between trend and scenario results. results.

Scenarios reflect on the one hand impact cost and on the other mScenarios reflect on the one hand impact cost and on the other mitigation / itigation / adaptation investmentadaptation investment


Main ConceptsMain ConceptsDamage (Stocks)Damage (Stocks)nn Impact on assetsImpact on assets¨̈ InfrastructureInfrastructure¨̈ CapitalCapital¨̈ StocksStocks

nn Occur immediately Occur immediately during or after the during or after the phenomenon that phenomenon that caused the disastercaused the disaster

Losses (Flows)Losses (Flows)nn Effects on flowsEffects on flows¨̈ ProductionProduction¨̈ Reduced income and Reduced income and

increased expensesincreased expensesnn Are perceived after the Are perceived after the

phenomenon, for a timephenomenon, for a time--period that can last from period that can last from weeks to months, till weeks to months, till recuperation occursrecuperation occurs


Some things are easier to Some things are easier to measure than othersmeasure than othersnn IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINEIT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE

¨̈ The value of lives lost or affectedThe value of lives lost or affected¨̈ The opportunity cost, costThe opportunity cost, cost--benefit or investment / profitability. This is benefit or investment / profitability. This is

associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess the associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess the level, quality and level, quality and efficiency / efficacy of health services providedefficiency / efficacy of health services provided

¨̈ The value and quality of services provided (both curative and prThe value and quality of services provided (both curative and preventive) eventive) ¨̈ The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when field hosThe duration of the transition / emergency phase (when field hospitals and pitals and

evacuation processes are operational)evacuation processes are operational)nn IT IS EASIER TO DETERMINEIT IS EASIER TO DETERMINE

¨̈ The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. The poteThe amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. The potential losses in ntial losses in equipment and inventories equipment and inventories

¨̈ The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition cost of The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition cost of affected affected infrastructureinfrastructure

¨̈ The alternative cost of providing services when infrastructures The alternative cost of providing services when infrastructures collapsecollapse

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The The ““Rock MemorialRock Memorial”” for for Swamy Vivekananda Swamy Vivekananda

(philosopher, late 19th. (philosopher, late 19th. Century) and 40 m. high Century) and 40 m. high

statue of Saint statue of Saint ThiruvalluvarThiruvalluvar




Artistic heritageArtistic heritage


Religious heritageReligious heritage


Damages to the culture and Damages to the culture and religious assetsreligious assetsnn DamagesDamages

¨̈ Repair or reconstruction costs of sites (archaeological, religioRepair or reconstruction costs of sites (archaeological, religious, us, etc.)etc.)

¨̈ Furnishings and cultural assets and educational materials in Furnishings and cultural assets and educational materials in museumsmuseums

¨̈ Rehabilitation of historical and cultural heritageRehabilitation of historical and cultural heritage¨̈ Destruction of historical records of cultural valueDestruction of historical records of cultural value¨̈ Damage to artistic, artisan assetsDamage to artistic, artisan assets

nn LossesLosses¨̈ Changes in culturally relevant practices and in ethnic communitiChanges in culturally relevant practices and in ethnic communitieses¨̈ Loss of indigenous clothing and its use, if associated with disaLoss of indigenous clothing and its use, if associated with disasterster¨̈ Rent of temporary facilities for cultural purposesRent of temporary facilities for cultural purposes¨̈ Repairs to cultural centers, sometimes used as shelters for Repairs to cultural centers, sometimes used as shelters for

displaced population during disasterdisplaced population during disaster¨̈ Reduced income from damaged culture and historical centres Reduced income from damaged culture and historical centres

(museums, etc.)(museums, etc.)

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Cultural heritage and sites declared Cultural heritage and sites declared internationally as humanity assetsinternationally as humanity assetsnn UNESCO has declared a number of sites, cities or UNESCO has declared a number of sites, cities or

locations as heritage to humanity.locations as heritage to humanity.nn A fund has been created to preserve them.A fund has been created to preserve them.nn Countries or locations so designed assume a Countries or locations so designed assume a

responsibility as to their preservation.responsibility as to their preservation.nn A number of sites have been declared as A number of sites have been declared as

endangered and have priority access to resources.endangered and have priority access to resources.nn How are these assets and the investment required How are these assets and the investment required

for their preservation assessed?for their preservation assessed?nn What is the technical, social and economic cost of What is the technical, social and economic cost of

preserving their cultural integrity and identity?preserving their cultural integrity and identity?


USE VALUEUSE VALUE NONNON--USE VALUEUSE VALUE

CULTURAL ASSETCULTURAL ASSET

TOTAL VALUETOTAL VALUE

NONNON--EXTRACTIVE EXTRACTIVE (INDIRECT)(INDIRECT)USE VALUEUSE VALUE

EXTRACTIVE EXTRACTIVE (DIRECT) (DIRECT) USE VALUEUSE VALUE

Economic valueEconomic value Aesthetic valueAesthetic value

Labor valueLabor value

Income and revenueIncome and revenue

Recreational valueRecreational value

Existence value Existence value

Option value Option value

Social value Social value

Spiritual value Spiritual value

Bequest value Bequest value

Historical value Historical value

Symbolic value Symbolic value

Authenticity value Authenticity value


REVEALED REVEALED PREFERENCE PREFERENCE

METHODSMETHODS

STATED STATED PREFERENCE PREFERENCE

METHODSMETHODS

Hedonic pricing Hedonic pricing methodmethod

Travel cost Travel cost methodmethod

VALUATION METHODSVALUATION METHODS

Replacement cost Replacement cost methodmethod

Restoration cost Restoration cost methodmethod

Market priceMarket pricemethodmethod

Impact studies Impact studies methodmethod

MultiMulti --Attribute Attribute valuation methods:valuation methods:Contingent ranking;Contingent ranking;Paired comparison; Paired comparison; Contingent rating; Contingent rating; Choice experiment Choice experiment

Contingent Contingent valuation methodvaluation method

Substitute cost Substitute cost methodmethod

Preventive expenditure Preventive expenditure methodmethod

Benefit Benefit transfertransfer methodmethod

ReferendumReferendum

COST BASED COST BASED METHODS METHODS

QUASI VALUATION METHODQUASI VALUATION METHOD

DERIVED BENEFIT DERIVED BENEFIT METHOD METHOD


ORGANIZATION OR ORGANIZATION OR PROCEDURAL ASPECTS OF PROCEDURAL ASPECTS OF ASSESSMENT EXERCISESASSESSMENT EXERCISES

nn Composition of team: multisectoral, Composition of team: multisectoral, interdisciplinary, interinstitutionalinterdisciplinary, interinstitutional

nn Timeliness: within the Timeliness: within the ““window of opportunitywindow of opportunity””, not , not interfering with emergency actionsinterfering with emergency actions

nn Ensure full coverage and avoid duplicationEnsure full coverage and avoid duplication

nn The need for The need for ““judgment callsjudgment calls”” or the educated or the educated guessing of expertsguessing of experts

nn Difference between emergency needs and rapid Difference between emergency needs and rapid assessment of need for reconstructionassessment of need for reconstruction

How is it obtained?How is it obtained?

Basic table formats for Basic table formats for capturing information on capturing information on damage and losses (as damage and losses (as developed for the GSDMA)developed for the GSDMA)


Sum of total values, Sum of total values, of all sectors and all of all sectors and all levels of damage or levels of damage or repair or replacement repair or replacement

estimated) estimated)

TOTAL DAMAGE TOTAL DAMAGE (compiled sector (compiled sector

by sector) by sector)

light repair light repair 10%10%LIGHT DAMAGE LIGHT DAMAGE 55

Mostly non Mostly non structural structural

repair repair

30%30%MODERATE DAMAGE MODERATE DAMAGE 44

Major Major structural and structural and non structural non structural

repair repair

75%75%SEVERE DAMAGE SEVERE DAMAGE 33

Demolition and Demolition and reconstruction reconstruction

105%105%TO BE DEMOLISHED TO BE DEMOLISHED 22

f (Physical unit*f (Physical unit* unitunitvalue) value) Reconstruction Reconstruction

i.e. 100% of i.e. 100% of construction construction

cost cost

TOTAL DESTRUCTION TOTAL DESTRUCTION OR COLLAPSED OR COLLAPSED

STRUCTURE STRUCTURE

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Current unit pricesCurrent unit prices("triage")("triage")LEVEL OF DAMAGE (scale)LEVEL OF DAMAGE (scale)

TOTAL ESTIMATED TOTAL ESTIMATED VALUE OF DAMAGEVALUE OF DAMAGE

Unit value (replacement cost, if other Unit value (replacement cost, if other used please used please specify:bookspecify:book

(depreciated) value, repair cost, etc.)(depreciated) value, repair cost, etc.)

Physical Physical assessment assessment (specify unit: (specify unit:

number, number, sq.mtsq.mt., ., km., m., kg., km., m., kg., ltslts., ., has., tons., etc.)has., tons., etc.)

Item to be assessed for damage and valuation: (housing, other buItem to be assessed for damage and valuation: (housing, other building, roads and bridges, canals, ilding, roads and bridges, canals, dams, factories, industrial sheds and warehouses, public buildindams, factories, industrial sheds and warehouses, public buildings, schools, hospitals, etc.)gs, schools, hospitals, etc.)

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Sum of total values, of Sum of total values, of all sectors and all levels all sectors and all levels of damage or repair or of damage or repair or replacement estimated)replacement estimated)

TOTAL LOSSES TOTAL LOSSES (compiled sector by (compiled sector by

sector)sector)

Cost increase (in Cost increase (in respect of "normal" respect of "normal"

operating costs) times operating costs) times estimated periodestimated period

Increased costs and Increased costs and decreased production decreased production

and / or earningsand / or earnings

Alternative Alternative means and means and

costs to costs to provide provide function function

during during reconstructioreconstructio

n / n / rehabilitationrehabilitation

Business loss, as Business loss, as average sales or average sales or production times production times estimated periodestimated period

Average normal Average normal production and / or production and / or earnings and costsearnings and costs

Estimated Estimated time for time for

function to be function to be restablishedrestablished

Non usableNon usable

UsableUsableFunctionFunction

ESTIMATION OF LOSSESESTIMATION OF LOSSES


Housing SectorHousing Sector

Total losses for Total losses for SubsectorSubsector , , RsRs (3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7)(3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7)

7. Cost of relocation, essential services, 7. Cost of relocation, essential services, RsRs

6. Cost of relocation, land, 6. Cost of relocation, land, RsRs

5. Cost of demolition and rubble removal, 5. Cost of demolition and rubble removal, RsRs

C. Other LossesC. Other Losses

4. Cost of temporary shelter facilities, 4. Cost of temporary shelter facilities, RsRs

B. Higher Expenditures B. Higher Expenditures

3. Losses of rental income, 3. Losses of rental income, RsRs (1 * 2)(1 * 2)

2. Value of monthly rental, 2. Value of monthly rental, RsRs

1. Number of houses under rental arrangements1. Number of houses under rental arrangements

A. Losses of Revenue A. Losses of Revenue

Duration of reconstruction period, monthsDuration of reconstruction period, months

1188

1177

1166

1155

1144

1133

1122

1111

1100998877665544332211 TotalTotal

Months after disaster occursMonths after disaster occurs

Loss ComponentsLoss Components


Health SectorHealth Sector

Total losses, Total losses, RsRs (5 + 13 + 14 + 15 + 16)(5 + 13 + 14 + 15 + 16)

16. Cost of relocation, 16. Cost of relocation, RsRs

15. Cost of retrofitting, 15. Cost of retrofitting, RsRs



13. Total increase in costs, 13. Total increase in costs, RsRs (6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10 + 11 + 12)(6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10 + 11 + 12)

12. Cost for long12. Cost for long--term medical and psychological treatment, term medical and psychological treatment, RsRs

11. Increased cost of vector control campaigns, 11. Increased cost of vector control campaigns, RsRs

10. Increased cost of disease prevention campaigns, 10. Increased cost of disease prevention campaigns, RsRs

9. Increased cost of disease surveillance after disaster, 9. Increased cost of disease surveillance after disaster, RsRs

8. Increased cost of medical treatment in higher cost, private f8. Increased cost of medical treatment in higher cost, private facilities, acilities, RsRs

7. Transportation cost of injured to available facilities, 7. Transportation cost of injured to available facilities, RsRs

6. Increased cost of medical treatment of injured during emergen6. Increased cost of medical treatment of injured during emergency cy stage, stage, RsRs**

B. Higher Costs B. Higher Costs

5. Loss of revenue, 5. Loss of revenue, RsRs (3 * 4)(3 * 4)

4. Average revenue per patient, 4. Average revenue per patient, RsRs/patient/patient

3. Lower number of patients, post disaster (1 3. Lower number of patients, post disaster (1 -- 2)2)

2. Post2. Post--disaster number of patientsdisaster number of patients

1. Pre1. Pre--disaster number of patientsdisaster number of patients


Duration of recovery period, monthsDuration of recovery period, months

181817171616151514141313121211111010998877665544332211 TotalTotal




Total losses for Total losses for SubsectorSubsector, , RsRs (5 + 11 + 12 + 13 + 14)(5 + 11 + 12 + 13 + 14)

14. Cost of relocation, 14. Cost of relocation, RsRs

13. Cost of retrofitting, 13. Cost of retrofitting, RsRs



11. Increase in Operational Costs, 11. Increase in Operational Costs, RsRs (10 (10 --6)6)

10. Operational costs, post10. Operational costs, post --disaster, disaster, RsRs (7 + 8 + 9)(7 + 8 + 9)

9. Other increased costs post disaster, 9. Other increased costs post disaster, RsRs

8. Personnel overtime post disaster, 8. Personnel overtime post disaster, RsRs

7. Higher transport costs post disaster, 7. Higher transport costs post disaster, RsRs

6. Operational costs, pre6. Operational costs, pre--disaster, disaster, RsRs

B. Higher Operational Costs B. Higher Operational Costs

5. Losses in Revenue, 5. Losses in Revenue, RsRs (3 * 4)(3 * 4)

4. Solid waste collection rate, 4. Solid waste collection rate, RsRs per per tonnetonne

3. Decrease in solid waste volume collected, 3. Decrease in solid waste volume collected, tonnestonnes (1 (1 -- 2)2)

2. Solid waste volume collected, post2. Solid waste volume collected, post--disaster, disaster, tonnestonnes

1. Solid waste volume collected, pre1. Solid waste volume collected, pre --disaster, disaster, tonnestonnes


Duration of recovery period, monthsDuration of recovery period, months

181817171616151514141313121211111010998877665544332211 TotalTotal



SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL SUBSOLID WASTE DISPOSAL SUB--SECTORSECTOR


GDP GROWTH RATE

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yea

r ra

te

]Before disaster After disaster

Global dynamic effectsGlobal dynamic effectsMacroeconomic effectsMacroeconomic effectsnn Repercussions are felt in the Repercussions are felt in the

national, local or regional national, local or regional economy as a consequence of economy as a consequence of the disaster (natural event)the disaster (natural event)

nn It may last for several years It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / its magnitude and the sectors / activities affectedactivities affected

nn Are measurable asAre measurable as¨̈ Growth rate and level of GDPGrowth rate and level of GDP¨̈ Performance of the external Performance of the external

sector (imports, exports, sector (imports, exports, transfers and investment)transfers and investment)

¨̈ Performance of public financesPerformance of public finances¨̈ Price variations and inflationPrice variations and inflation


CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on gross capital formationgross capital formation

**** **

**TIMETIME

GR

OS

S C

AP

ITA

L FO

RM

ATI

ON

GR

OS

S C

AP

ITA

L FO

RM

ATI

ON

ACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATIONACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATIONPOTENTIAL GROWTH PATHPOTENTIAL GROWTH PATH** DISASTERDISASTER

7


0.40.4Import Elasticity of incomeImport Elasticity of income

0.240.24Relationship of net government income to national incomeRelationship of net government income to national income

1.11.1Relationship between value of private assets and private expendiRelationship between value of private assets and private expenditureture

MAIN PARAMETERSMAIN PARAMETERS

SinulationSinulation Stock Flow Model (based on Godley and Stock Flow Model (based on Godley and CripsCrips, 1983 and Godley, 1999), 1983 and Godley, 1999)


Figure 1Evolution of nominal income

Year 1 to Year 9

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

7000.0

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

Loca

l Mon

etar

y U

nits

Natural Disastercauses a decline in income.Its quantitative estimate is provided by the ECLAC methodology on a sectorial basis.We assume here that the effect causes a decline in nominal income for two consecutive years. This is the external shck aspect.

Pre-disaster Effect of disaster Post Disaster

In the post disaster scenario it is assumed that the target or objective is to bring back nominal income to its pre-disaster growth path. All the variables in the model are consistent with this objective. Figure 2 as an example is the government spending required to bring the growth path of nominal income to its prevoius level.


Figure 2Government Spending

Year 1 to Year 5

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

Loca

l mon

etar

y un

its

Natural disasterThe initial effect is to diminish the spending capacity of the government. This is the external shock aspect of the disaster.

Path of spending policies required to bring the level of nominal income to its pre-disaster level. This is the policy aspect.


HUMANHUMAN

--HealthHealth

--EducationEducation

NATURALNATURAL

--Clean waterClean water

--Clean airClean air

--Biodiversity and Biodiversity and ecosystem ecosystem (microclimate)(microclimate)

FINANCIALFINANCIAL

--Access to creditAccess to credit

--Land tenure and ownershipLand tenure and ownership

PHYSICALPHYSICAL

--Type and quality of Type and quality of settlement and settlement and housinghousing

SOCIALSOCIAL

--Social networks (security and Social networks (security and solidarity)solidarity)

--Family ties and extended familyFamily ties and extended family

--Violence and securityViolence and security


1

10

100HUMAN

SOCIAL

NATURALFINANCIAL

PHYSICAL

Past Current Mid-term Long termR. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster

Evaluation 42UN - ECLAC

Some real examples assessed in the pastSome real examples assessed in the past

8


El NiEl Niñño 97o 97--98 effects in the main economic 98 effects in the main economic variables of Andean countriesvariables of Andean countries

-3

-2

-1

0

%

GDP DECREASE IN 1998

Bolivia

ColombiaEcuador

PerúVenezuela -40

-20

0

%

EXPORT DECREASE IN 1998

Bolivia

ColombiaEcuador

PerúVenezuela

0

5

10

%

PREVENTION AND EMERGENCY EXPENDITURE VS. FISCAL BUDGET IN 1998

Bolivia

Colombia

Ecuador

Perú

Venezuela 0

10

20

30

40

%

ECUADOR ANNUAL INFLATION RATE

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998


Macroeconomic effect: decreased Macroeconomic effect: decreased national growth ratesnational growth rates

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

%

GDP decrease in 1998-9

Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua

--0.30.3 --0.30.3 --1.41.4

--9.09.0

--0.90.9


Impact of disasters on GDP growth in Honduras

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Growth without Mitch or drought Growth with Mitch and drought

MITCHMITCH

DROUGHTDROUGHT


Impact of disasters on Nicaragua´s GDP

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Growth without Mitch or drought Growth with Mitch and drought

MITCH

DROUGHT


Disasters Impact on El Salvador´s GDP

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Growth without disastersGrowth with Mitch, earthquakes, drought and hurricane Stan

MITCH

EARTHQUAKE

DROUGHT

STANSTAN


Hurricane Stan in El Salvador:Hurricane Stan in El Salvador:Breakdown of damage and lossesBreakdown of damage and losses

10.610.610.610.6------Emergency and reliefEmergency and relief

355.6355.6159.5159.5196.2196.2TOTALTOTAL

21.821.80.90.921.021.0EnvironmentEnvironment

113.5113.511.811.8--1.31.3

103.0103.0

8.18.13.33.3

--1.21.26.86.8

105.5105.58.58.50.80.8

96.296.2

InfrastructureInfrastructureWater and sanitationWater and sanitationElectricityElectricityTransportTransport

56.156.148.748.73.13.14.34.34.14.1

34.434.427.127.13.13.14.34.34.14.1

21.721.721.621.6------------0.10.1

ProductiveProductiveAgricultureAgricultureIndustryIndustryCommerceCommerceTourismTourism

149.5149.5113.1113.1

17.017.019.319.3

101.5101.577.177.112.212.212.212.2

48.048.036.036.0

4.94.97.17.1

SocialSocialHousingHousingEducationEducationHealthHealth

TOTALTOTALLosses, Losses, Millions US$Millions US$

Damage,Damage,Millions US$Millions US$Sector and sub sectorSector and sub sector

9


Impact of disasters on Guatemala´s GDP

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Growth without disasters Growth with Mitch and drought

MITCH

DROUGHT

STANSTAN


Hurricane Stan in Guatemala: Hurricane Stan in Guatemala: Breakdown of damage and lossesBreakdown of damage and losses

594.8594.8594.8594.8------Emergency and reliefEmergency and relief7,511.27,511.24,310.94,310.93,200.33,200.3TOTALTOTAL

308.0308.0......308.0308.0EnvironmentEnvironment

3,396.33,396.390.190.138.438.4

3,267.83,267.8

1,436.81,436.843.743.716.316.3

1,376.81,376.8

1,959.51,959.546.446.422.122.1

1,891.01,891.0

InfrastructureInfrastructureWater and sanitationWater and sanitationElectricityElectricityTransportTransport

2,042.02,042.0590.7590.7430.8430.8614.9614.9405.6405.6

1,736.11,736.1411.8411.8355.8355.8564.9564.9403.6403.6

305.9305.9178.9178.9

75.075.050.050.02.02.0

ProductiveProductiveAgricultureAgricultureIndustryIndustryCommerceCommerceTourismTourism

,1,170.1,1,170.11,000.21,000.2

61.961.9108.0108.0

543.2543.2455.0455.0

9.39.378.978.9

629.9629.9545.2545.2

52.652.629.129.1

SocialSocialHousingHousingEducationEducationHealthHealth

TotalTotalLosses, Losses, Millions QuetzalesMillions Quetzales

Damage,Damage,Millions of QuetzalesMillions of QuetzalesSector and sub sectorSector and sub sector


Gujarat (INDIA): Total Damage from disasters and Calamity fund budgeted resources (Crores of Rupees)

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

90-91 91-92 92-93 1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

97-98 1998 1999 99-2000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2004 2005

Total Damage (Crores)Calamity Relief Fund (from Finance Commision, Delhi)Amount spent on calamity relief and rehabilitation buy State Govt.


Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Gujarat, IndiaGujarat, India

- 5

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

SGDP with disasters Potential growth without disastrsLogarítmica (Potential growth without disastrs) Logarítmica (SGDP with disasters)


Summary of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, by Summary of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, by countrycountry

1.01.09,9639,9634,3674,3675,5975,597Total RegionTotal Region

1.41.42,1982,1981,6901,690508508ThailandThailand

7.67.61,4541,4543103101,1441,144Sri LankaSri Lanka

83.683.6603603153153450450MaldivesMaldives

2.02.04,4514,4511,5311,5312,9202,920IndonesiaIndonesia0.20.21,2241,224649649575575IndiaIndia

Impact/GDPImpact/GDPMagnitude,Magnitude,Total ImpactTotal ImpactLossesLossesDamageDamageCountryCountry


Breakdown of 2004 Tsunami impactBreakdown of 2004 Tsunami impact

Social 29%

Productive53%

Infrastructure18%

10


Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on main affected countriesOcean tsunami on main affected countries

0.2 1.01.42.0

83.6

7.60

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

India Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka Thailand TotalRegion

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Total Impact Magnitude, Impact/GDP


2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative 2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative value of damage and losses by affected statesvalue of damage and losses by affected states

545.0

1,057.0

94.0

73.00.83%

2.45%

4.02%

0.15%

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

AndhraPradesh

Kerala Tamil Nadu Pondichery0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

US$ million Total damage and losses as percentage of GSDP


Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual GDP growth in 2004GDP growth in 2004--20052005

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

India Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka Thailand

Pre-Disaster forecasted GDP Growth, %Post-disaster estimated GDP growth


ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 HURRICANE SEASONHURRICANE SEASON

b) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not includb) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not include lossese losses

a) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance coa) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance companies (Munich Re)mpanies (Munich Re)

37,55937,559Total (including Cuba y Florida)Total (including Cuba y Florida)

FrancesFrances1,5001,500Cuba (b)Cuba (b)

Jeanne, Charley and FrancesJeanne, Charley and Frances30,00030,000Florida (a)Florida (a)

IvanIvan595595Jamaica Jamaica

JeanneJeanne296296HaitHaitíí

IvanIvan889889Granada Granada

Tropical storm JeanneTropical storm Jeanne296296Dominican RepublicDominican Republic

IvanIvan3,4323,432Cayman IslandsCayman Islands

Hurricanes Frances and Hurricanes Frances and JeanneJeanne

551551Bahamas Bahamas

Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/6,0596,059Assessed by ECLACAssessed by ECLAC

Millions of US$Millions of US$

EventEventEconomic impactEconomic impactIsland / StateIsland / State


2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact 2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact of damage and losses by affected country / stateof damage and losses by affected country / state

551 3,432 296 889 595296

183.00%

1.70%

8.00%

10.50%

212.00%

7.30%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

HurricanesFrances

and Jeanne

HurricaneIvan

TropicalStorm

Jeanne

HurricaneIvan

HurricaneJeanne

HurricaneIvan

Bahamas CaymanIslands

DominicanRepublic

Grenada Haiti Jamaica

US $ m

illions

1.00%

10.00%

100.00%

1000.00%

Economic Impact, US$ million Impact as % of GDP


Damage profile in the Caribbean Damage profile in the Caribbean Hurricane 2004 seasonHurricane 2004 season

Composition of damage and losses

Productive Sectors

35.2%

Infrastructure 1 5 . 6 %

Social Sectors

4 7 . 5 %

Environment

1.3%

Emergency and rel ief 0 . 4 %

11


b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.

a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basisof partial data.countries and are an estimate on the basisof partial data.

Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reglectNota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reglect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assepreliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in ssment is in process by the official technical entitites.process by the official technical entitites.

Source: ECLAC estimatesSource: ECLAC estimates

29,781.229,781.2137,174137,17468,23668,236205,559205,5596,902,3076,902,3074,5984,598TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES)TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES)

926.2926.22,1742,1743,2363,2365,5595,5596,002,3076,002,3072,9002,900TOTAL (not including United States)TOTAL (not including United States)2,511.02,511.08648641,3581,3582,2222,222885,036885,0361,6901,690Assessed by ECLACAssessed by ECLACTOTALTOTAL

43.243.250.050.0100.0100.0150.0150.03,474,3893,474,3891,1341,134Other events a/Other events a/

560.0560.0450.0450.0950.0950.01,400.01,400.02,500,0002,500,0001616Dennis Dennis Cuba b/Cuba b/AugustAugust

6,527.56,527.590.490.4322.8322.8413.2413.263,30063,30044EmilyEmily

820.7820.7950.0950.01,250.01,250.02,200.02,200.02,680,5712,680,5716464Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc.Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc.Mexico b/Mexico b/JulyJuly--SeptemberSeptember

222,222.2222,222.2135,000.0135,000.065,000.065,000.0200,000.0200,000.0900,000900,0001,6981,698Dennis, Katrina, RitaDennis, Katrina, RitaUnited United States b/States b/

JulyJuly--SeptemberSeptember

4,930.64,930.6159.5159.5196.2196.2355.7355.772,14172,1416969Torrential rains, Torrential rains, tropical storm Stan, tropical storm Stan, and Ilamatepec (Santa and Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) volcano eruptionAna) volcano eruption

El El SalvadorSalvador

OctoberOctober

2,081.42,081.4567.2567.2421.1421.1988.3988.3474,821474,8211,5831,583Torrential rains, Torrential rains, tropical storm Stantropical storm Stan

GuatemalGuatemalaa

OctoberOctober

1,692.71,692.746.846.8418.3418.3465.1465.1274,774274,7743434Flood due to intense Flood due to intense rainfall in rainfall in December/January December/January period in coastal period in coastal floodplains in floodplains in Georgetown and AlbionGeorgetown and Albion

GuyanaGuyanaJanuaryJanuary

Total impact (millions of USD)Total impact (millions of USD)PopulationPopulationType of eventType of eventLocationLocationDateDate

Per capita Per capita impact on impact on affected affected


LosseLosses (in s (in flows)flows)

Damage Damage (to (to

assets)assets)

Total impact Total impact (millions of (millions of

USD)USD)

Directly Directly affected affected


DeathsDeaths2005 Atlantic Hurricane 2005 Atlantic Hurricane seasonseason


nn Reference materials:Reference materials:¨̈ ECLAC handbook for the socioeconomic and environmental ECLAC handbook for the socioeconomic and environmental

impact of disasters (impact of disasters ( www.cepal.org/mexicowww.cepal.org/mexico, , ““desastresdesastres””))¨̈ Disasters and development (IADB/ECLAC publication, 2000Disasters and development (IADB/ECLAC publication, 2000¨̈ Disaster assessments: 1973 to 2005 Disaster assessments: 1973 to 2005

((www.cepal.org/mexicowww.cepal.org/mexico), ), ““desastresdesastres””))¨̈ The 2004 Hurricanes in the Caribbean and the Tsunami in the The 2004 Hurricanes in the Caribbean and the Tsunami in the

Indian Ocean (ECLAC series (Indian Ocean (ECLAC series (““Estudios y perspectivas) no.35 Estudios y perspectivas) no.35 ¨̈ WBI and World BankWBI and World Bank’’s webpages.s webpages.

Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention

Can the methodology lead Can the methodology lead to enhancing poverty to enhancing poverty reduction through disaster reduction through disaster risk management?risk management?


SEQUENCE OF EFFECTSSEQUENCE OF EFFECTSPHENOMENON:PHENOMENON:

CharacteristicsCharacteristics (physical (physical description, typology and description, typology and context: war and insecurity, context: war and insecurity, lack of governance, lack of governance, marginalisation and marginalisation and poverty) poverty)

EFFECTS:EFFECTS:Direct Direct (physical(physicalon economic,on economic,social andsocial andnatural capital)natural capital)Indirect Indirect (on(onFlows)Flows)

LINKAGESLINKAGES

Hazard Hazard Risk Risk VulnerabilityVulnerability

Impact/Benefit of reconstruction (global, by sector) Impact/Benefit of reconstruction (global, by sector) qqReduce vulnerability by building Reduce vulnerability by building ““trusttrust”” and and ““consensusconsensus””qqSynergies for reconstruction: Synergies for reconstruction: ““appropriationappropriation”” of risk by affected/menaced of risk by affected/menaced population (community, social group, sector, country)population (community, social group, sector, country)


Risk management and adaptationRisk management and adaptation

Damage and costsDamage and costs

HAZARDSHAZARDSBaselineBaselinemodified modified

by by variabilityvariability

and and changechange

RISKRISKMulti stressesMulti stresses

More severely affectedMore severely affectedby vulnerability by vulnerability but aggravatedbut aggravated

by changesby changesin hazardsin hazards

patternspatterns

MANAGEMENT, MANAGEMENT, TRANSFER ANDTRANSFER AND

REDUCTIONREDUCTION

MITIGATIONMITIGATION

ADAPTATIONADAPTATION

EVOLUTIONEVOLUTIONRESILIENCERESILIENCE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYDiverse, localDiverse, local

Sector specificSector specific


EXPOSURESEXPOSURESSENSITIVITYSENSITIVITYCOPING CAPACITYCOPING CAPACITY

CLIMATE CLIMATE STRESSORSSTRESSORS

VULNERABILITIES VULNERABILITIES (RESPONSES)(RESPONSES)

PROCESSES PROCESSES (DRIVERS)(DRIVERS)

12


Risk Risk AssessmentAssessment

Policy Policy strategiesstrategies

Poverty Poverty reductionreduction

DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

Economic Economic assessmentassessment

RESOURCERESOURCE

MOBILIZATIONMOBILIZATION

Ma

cro

ec

on

om

Ma

cro

ec

on

omiic

eq

uili

bri

ac

equ

ilib

ria

IMF

co

mm

itm

ents

IMF

co

mm

itm

ents

Mil

len

niu

m D

evel

op

men

t G

oal

sM

ille

nn

ium

Dev

elo

pm

ent

Go

als

National planningNational planning

The link between disasters, poverty and developmentThe link between disasters, poverty and developmentR. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster

Evaluation 68UN - ECLAC

Future requirements: the road Future requirements: the road not takennot takennn Have a systematic comparable data base over time and geographicaHave a systematic comparable data base over time and geographically lly

comparablecomparablenn Currently different organizations and agencies collect data Currently different organizations and agencies collect data

independently at different periods and at different scales, duplindependently at different periods and at different scales, duplicating icating efforts and hampering data integration. efforts and hampering data integration.

nn Little synergy between the data collection efforts during the emLittle synergy between the data collection efforts during the emergency ergency phase either by UN system, NGOs, IFRC and government agencies, aphase either by UN system, NGOs, IFRC and government agencies, and nd data collected during IFI assessment missions. data collected during IFI assessment missions.

nn Lack of explicit difference between perception of needs:Lack of explicit difference between perception of needs:¨̈ By donors to define humanitarian and recovery interventionsBy donors to define humanitarian and recovery interventions¨̈ By UN agencies to fund projectsBy UN agencies to fund projects¨̈ By IFIS to provide emergency / recovery / regular loans or to reBy IFIS to provide emergency / recovery / regular loans or to reprogramme, programme,

reorient existing loansreorient existing loansThere is an undeniable turf battle over disaster management, resThere is an undeniable turf battle over disaster management, response and ponse and

recovery and not enough concern about mitigation, effective recovery and not enough concern about mitigation, effective preventgion, and adaptation (a.k.a. reinforcement and resiliencepreventgion, and adaptation (a.k.a. reinforcement and resilience))


Discussion points: Gaps or perceived needs Discussion points: Gaps or perceived needs towards a standardized methodologytowards a standardized methodology

nn Define what is it forDefine what is it fornn Determine differenced between damage /losses assessments from Determine differenced between damage /losses assessments from

needs assessmentsneeds assessmentsnn See successive assessments as complementary not competitive toolSee successive assessments as complementary not competitive toolssnn Not to overwhelm governments in time of crisis with repetitive Not to overwhelm governments in time of crisis with repetitive

questions and assessment missionsquestions and assessment missionsnn Governments give an uneven response to these initiatives and locGovernments give an uneven response to these initiatives and local or al or

national capacities have not been developed in high risk countrinational capacities have not been developed in high risk countries.es.nn There is a lack of consensus as to how to fill the gap: There is a lack of consensus as to how to fill the gap:

¨̈ Within the UN system, or Within the UN system, or ¨̈ amongst a cadre of expertsamongst a cadre of experts

nn The questions remains: how to apply such a methodology in practiThe questions remains: how to apply such a methodology in practicece¨̈ Need to standardize criteria / definitionsNeed to standardize criteria / definitions¨̈ Reinforce preReinforce pre--disaster base line data collectiondisaster base line data collection¨̈ Train relevant national officials / institutionsTrain relevant national officials / institutions


PostPost--disaster needs in a wider disaster needs in a wider context: Extreme events as a driver context: Extreme events as a driver for changefor changenn The financial adaptation: the The financial adaptation: the

experience of reexperience of re --insurersinsurersnn The social adaptation: the tsunami and The social adaptation: the tsunami and

Katrina syndromesKatrina syndromesnn The economic adaptation: move public The economic adaptation: move public

goods into the market domaingoods into the market domain


FinallyFinally…… where do we want to where do we want to be: the road to be takenbe: the road to be taken

nn The Kobe conference: from the Hyogo Declaration to The Kobe conference: from the Hyogo Declaration to effective actioneffective action¨̈ DeDe--tsunamize and Detsunamize and De--Katrinize disaster managementKatrinize disaster management¨̈ Act on conviction: risk reduction is a developmental and an Act on conviction: risk reduction is a developmental and an

economic issueeconomic issue¨̈ Revert the myth on public goods: internalize damage and Revert the myth on public goods: internalize damage and

externalize benefits/profitsexternalize benefits/profits¨̈ Act as a Act as a ““unitedunited”” United NationsUnited Nations

nn Cooperation and sharing vs. turf battling and individual posturiCooperation and sharing vs. turf battling and individual posturingngnn Priority to Priority to ““clientclient”” needs over supplyneeds over supply--driven initiatives (overcome the driven initiatives (overcome the

““father knows bestfather knows best”” syndrome)syndrome)nn Recognize diversity and dissensionRecognize diversity and dissensionnn Advance knowledge over advance selfAdvance knowledge over advance self--interestinterest


Appropriation of risk needed to Appropriation of risk needed to promote risk reduction:promote risk reduction:nn Need for institutional and regulatory Need for institutional and regulatory

changeschangesnn Use of market to value (Use of market to value (““priceprice””) risk) risknn Need for social policies for Need for social policies for

compensation and promotion (provide compensation and promotion (provide gender, age, ethnic sensitive gender, age, ethnic sensitive instruments) instruments)

nn See risk reduction as a business See risk reduction as a business opportunityopportunity

Imperfect or inactive markets require Imperfect or inactive markets require government action / interventiongovernment action / intervention

13


Disasters may be an incentive for creativity. Art as a training Disasters may be an incentive for creativity. Art as a training tooltool

The The ““Radio NovelaRadio Novela””, a success in Latin America capturing large , a success in Latin America capturing large audiences provided a medium audiences provided a medium “…“…to deliver hurricane safety information to deliver hurricane safety information in the Caribbeanin the Caribbean””..A similar cultural product was developed in Central America: A similar cultural product was developed in Central America: ““En tiempo En tiempo de huracanesde huracanes””..Develop cultural goods to change the Develop cultural goods to change the ““disaster prevention and risk reductiondisaster prevention and risk reduction””

culturecultureACSACSPAHOPAHOUN ISDR UN ISDR CDERACDERAIFRCIFRC

Advocay and popularization is necessary:an audio Soap Opera


What are our collective What are our collective challenges in an uncertain challenges in an uncertain world?world?nn How disaster analysis and poverty How disaster analysis and poverty

reduction requires a strategic analysis reduction requires a strategic analysis on the basis of uncertainty and on the basis of uncertainty and institutional auditing and validation?institutional auditing and validation?

nn Inspired by Inspired by EamonnEamonn Kelly, Kelly, ““Powerful Times. Rising to the challenge of our Powerful Times. Rising to the challenge of our uncertain worlduncertain world””, Wharton School Publishing, 2006 (ISBN 0, Wharton School Publishing, 2006 (ISBN 0-- 1313--|85520|85520 --4)4)


A recent analytical framework from Wharton:A recent analytical framework from Wharton:

7 dynamic tensions and 3 scenarios7 dynamic tensions and 3 scenarios

People/PlanetPeople/Planet

Prospective/DeclineProspective/Decline

Intangible/physicalIntangible/physical

Technology Technology acceleration/Pushbacacceleration/Pushbackk

Power/VulnerabilityPower/Vulnerability

Secular/SacredSecular/Sacred

Clarity/CrazinessClarity/Craziness

Emergence (of new Emergence (of new powers/drivers/forces)powers/drivers/forces)

““PatchworkPatchwork”” powerspowersThe The ““American American centurycentury””

Opposing / Opposing / dichotomicdichotomic forcesforces


nn Reference materials:Reference materials:¨̈ ECLAC handbook for the socioeconomic and environmental ECLAC handbook for the socioeconomic and environmental

impact of disasters (impact of disasters ( www.cepal.org/mexicowww.cepal.org/mexico, , ““desastresdesastres””))¨̈ Disasters and development (IADB/ECLAC publication, 2000Disasters and development (IADB/ECLAC publication, 2000¨̈ Disaster assessments: 1973 to 2005 Disaster assessments: 1973 to 2005

((www.cepal.org/mexicowww.cepal.org/mexico), ), ““desastresdesastres””))¨̈ The 2004 Hurricanes in the Caribbean and the Tsunami in the The 2004 Hurricanes in the Caribbean and the Tsunami in the

Indian Ocean (ECLAC series (Indian Ocean (ECLAC series (““Estudios y perspectivas) no.35 Estudios y perspectivas) no.35 ¨̈ WBI and World BankWBI and World Bank’’s webpages.s webpages.

Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention

session 2: methodology for damage and needs...

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