service life predictionacademy.amccentre.nl/thesis/presentatie/presentation_w_koops.pdf ·...
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Service Life Prediction
Infrastructure Assets RWS
Thesis: MSc Asset management Control Student: W. Koops Date: 2012 March 09
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Thesis Presentation “MSc. Asset Management Control”
10:30 Welcome / reception
10:45 Thesis Presentation
11:15 Public Defense
11:45 Assessment by the Examining Panel
12:00 Presentation of Results and Diploma
12:15 Reception and lunch
13:00 Closing
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Content presentation
1. Scope of research
2. Research methodology
3. Theoretical framework
4. Reference model
5. Case study “Krammer locks”
6. Conclusions
7. Recommendations
8. Evaluation
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Research topic
The research topic addresses research into the predictability of the Service Life of infrastructure assets and how to improve. Four classes of deterioration, which lead to the end of Service Life, can be distinguished:
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1. Mechanics based, (static, dynamic and fatigue loads);
2. Degradation based, (behaviour under physical, chemical and biological loads);
3. Accidental damage, (i.e. accidents, hail, lightning, operating errors, etc…);
4. Obsolescence, (a class of -non technical- deterioration that shows due to the inability to satisfy functional (human), economical, cultural or ecological requirements).
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The state of being which occurs when an object, service or practice is no longer wanted even though it may still be in good working order. (Wikipedia)
Definitions obsolescence
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Early 20th century
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21th century The inability to satisfy functional (human), economical, cultural or ecological requirements. (Asko)
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Life Cycle Management (MIRT & SLA)
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Design / construct Sustain Reconstruct Sustain Dismantle
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Cases studied
River Maas
Zuid-Willems Vaart
Hansweert-Krammer
• De Maas
• Zuid Willems Vaart
• Hansweert-Krammer (test-case)
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Problem definition
Not having coherent information on performance requirements, used in the design- and sustainment phase of infrastructure assets, predicting the Service Life based on deterioration due to obsolescence.
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How can information concerning performance requirements be structured to improve the predictability of the end of Service Life of infrastructure assets caused by obsolescence?
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Research Question and scope
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Externalinfluences on
utilisation
(e.g. customerdemands andregulatory or
ecologicalchanges)
Service life prediction
based on information on
obsolescence
Performance requirements
Infrastructure Assets
Sustainment phase
Performance requirements
Infrastructure Assets
Design phase
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Research model
Service Life Prediction
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Deterioration tree (Asko / Moubray / IEC 60300-3-11)
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Service Life Prediction Obsolescence based
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System design (Blanchard)
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2
3 8
Service Life Prediction
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Methods used
To correlate, as closely as possible, with existing methodologies used within RWS and supporting the monitoring of obsolescence, the three following steps are recommended as a base for the reference model.
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A. Start by defining system borders and apply synthesis of system parts, “System Analysis”, part of Systems Engineering, using a „System Breakdown Structure‟ (SBS);
B. Set up a functional hierarchy, “Function Analysis” part of Systems Engineering, using FFBD‟s;
C. Make a matrix “House of Quality” to relate causes of obsolescence (external influences) per „type‟ to functions and (obligatory) performance requirements with QFD.
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A) System analysis (Six layer model of Water Infra System)
B) Functional analysis (FBS Water Infra System)
C) Requirement analysis (QFD)
Reference model SLIM
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Externalinfluences on
utilisation
(e.g. customerdemands andregulatory or
ecologicalchanges)
Service life prediction
based on information on
obsolescence
Performance requirements
Infrastructure Assets
Sustainment phase
Performance requirements
Infrastructure Assets
Design phase
Service Life Planning
Deterioration
Mechanics based
Deterioration
Degradation based
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Hansweert – Krammer
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Krammer Locks
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SBS
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FFBD
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House of Quality (RWS)
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QUALITATIVE DESCRIPTION
QUANTITATIVE (METRIC) FORMULATION
QUANTITATIVE (METRIC) FORMULATION
SCORE OBSOLESCENSE (Future demand)
WHEN?
STAKEHOLDER INFORMATION
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Conclusion
1. The HoQ provides a transparent listing of asset information to serve communication and decision-making on (re) construction;
2. Seen from the ambition of OP2015 to improve public-oriented network management, the developed “WHY” and “ WHEN” annex, with stakeholder information, certainly has added value;
3. The HoQ need further development to define the interpolation of the „obsolescence margin‟ of TPM‟s, to the score of the HoQ.
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Recommendations
1. Conducting further research into “Modern QFD” and additional instruments, to define the interpolation of the „obsolescence margin‟ of TPM‟s, to the score of the HoQ;
2. The HoQ and the maintenance plans for infrastructure assets should be combined in integral sustainment plans for infrastructure assets;
3. The HoQ should be used, as part of LCM, to transfer performance requirements (TPM‟s) through all life cycle phases of Service Life of infrastructure assets.
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Evaluation
• The ambition of the research, based on the three cases studied, was to research obsolescence on a network-unit level;
• Obsolescence can have many faces (deterioration tree) and affects network performance, but depends on the capability of infrastructure assets;
• To define whether the ‟obsolescence type‟ is function related, and how (with which score), obsolescence affects the design TPM‟s of infrastructure assets, first the function requirements for concerning network category and network-unit should be determined;
• RWS should make better agreements with the principal in order to define causal related requirements for the system layers 1, 2, 3 and 4!
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A. Cost Effective Management Control of Capital Assets, 2002; Mr J. Stavenuiter
B. Logistics Engineering and management, 2004; Mr B.S. Blanchard
C. Reliability-Centred Maintenance, 2007; Mr J. Moubray
D. International Infrastructure Management Manual, 2006; NAMS
E. Life Cycle Costing, 2003; Mr J. Emblemsvag
F. Integrated Logistics Support Handbook, 2006; Mr J. Jones
G. Quality Function Deployment, 1991; Mr Y Akao
H. Predictive and Optimised Life Cycle Management, 2006; Mr S. Asko
I. Products tuned, or "Producten op maat“, 1995; Mr S. Sarlemijn
J. Research Methods for Business Students, 2007; Mr. M. Saunders, P. Lewis & A. Tornhill
Literature
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Thanks
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Address of Faculty residence: Asset Management Control Centre Willemsoord 52 C-D, 1781 AS Den Helder
HZ, University of applied sciences
Edisonweg 4 4382 NW Vlissingen