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Serhat SENSOYVice-President WMO CCl

Engineer in Climatology Division

Ministry of Forestry and Water WorksTurkish State Meteorological Service

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Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) was founded in 1937. It is the only legal organization which provides all meteorological information in Turkey.

Establishment

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• 1839 The first meteorological observations started in Istanbul• 1873 Participated in the International Meteorological Congress

1875 First Observation Network established with 16 stations• 1915 Upper air observations and weather forecasts started• 1925 Establishment of Meteorological Institute• 1937 Establishment of Turkish State Meteorological Service• Became member of International Organizations;

WMO (1949) ECMWF (1975) EUMETSAT (1984) ECOMET (1999)

• 2000 Recognized as one of the 23 Regional Training Centre (RTC)• 2008 Became member of ALADIN Consortium• 2009 Became node in WMO RA VI RCC Network• 2011 Re-organized

History of TSMSHistory of TSMS

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Organization Chart of TSMS

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544

733

1109

2003-2011 2012 2016

In-Situ ObservationAutomatic Weather Observation Stations

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Upper Air Observing Network

8 stations are making 2 times observation at 00 and 12 UTC in every day. They are transmitting data via GPS

In-Situ Observation

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In-Situ Observations, Airport and Marine

Stations

There are 62 airport stations, 50 of them with AWOSs

Together with sea temperature observations in 19 stations, 40 AWOS will be installed on buoys and lighthouse. 2015 target is 62 stations

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Remote sensing ObservationsWeather Radars

10 C-Band Doppler Radars installed in Ankara, İstanbul, Zonguldak, Balıkesir, İzmir, Muğla, Antalya, Adana, (Samsun and Trabzon are in test phase), 50 X Band Radars will be installed in 2015

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Remote Sensing Observations

Turkey is been a EUMETSAT member since 1984. We are receiving data from EUMETSAT MSG(Geo-Stationary) in 3km spatial , 5 min. temporal resolution and from NOAA (polar) in 1km spatial and 6h temporal resolution

Radar composit image

MSG IR Ch-9

MSG IR increased colorfulness

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MM5Horizontal res. 13/4/2 kmVertical res.41 level/10 mbForecast period: 72 hours

ALADINHorizontal resolution: 4 kmVertical res. 60 level/10 mbForecast period: 48 hours

ModelsModels

TSMS is using following models:

•ECMWF•MM5•ALADIN•WRF•METU3 (Marine)•SWAN (Marine)•DREAM-8 Dust Transport•MEUS (Forest Fire)•AGROMETSHELL •RegCM3-4

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Meteorological Communication and Application Package

It simplifies communication between different forecast centre as well as prepare charts, images and diagrams. It consists of many modules for meteorological applications

TURK-METCAP

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Products & ServicesWeather Forecast

Nowcasting : 3 - 6 hours forecasts; Warnings : ~400warnings /year Short Range : 12 - 24 hours forecasts; Medium Range : 1 - 7 days forecasts; Airports : TAF and SPECI; Ocean : 1- 3 days forecasts;

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Forecasts for severe weather;

Heavy precipitation, thunderstorm, tornado, flood risk;

Published on WWW, radio, and sent to cell-phones as SMS;

Precautions managed by the cooperation with Disaster

Coordination Centers and local authorities.

Weather Forecast

Very Short-Range

Forecasts (Nowcasting)

and Warnings:

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Warnings

Dust Transport

Rainfall (mm) classification1 – 5 light rain6 - 20 medium rainfall21-50 strong rainfall51-75 v. strong rainfall76-100 heavy rainfall>100 very heavy rainfall

(urgent)

(location)

(valid time)

(location)

(valid time)

(disruptions in transportation)

(flash flood, lightning)

Date time warning # Severty

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Short range forecast

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Medium range forecast

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SMS and E-mail Services:

Meteorological Warnings

To prevent and reduce the losses

due to extreme events, Early

Warnings are prepared and sent

to Public via GSM Operators

(SMS) and e-mail to 4500 users.

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FM Radio

Voice of Meteorology

Our Radio Channel (“Meteor FM”) broadcasts in 27 cities and reaching almost 40 million people country-wide. Our broadcast is accessible all over the world via Turksat 1-C satellite.

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Android Application

Latest observations for the selected city

5 days weather forecast for selected cities

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Products & Services

HIGHWAY FORECASTING

SYSTEM

METU-3 SEA-WAVE

PREDICTION MODEL

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Turkey became a Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS ) regional center on 29-31 March 2010.

FFGS is supported by WMO, HRC, NOAA and USAID .

Aim of FFGS is to make flash flood warning for all participating countries Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

Black Sea and Middle East Flash Flood Guidance System

Bulgaria and Romania are observers and would become members in the future.

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The DREAM-8 model dust transport model has been developed at TSMS in cooperation with Spain under the EU TAIEX Small Grants Program.

The operational forecasts by DREAM-8 has been started at June 2010. Forecasts are published at the TSMS website.

Dust Transport Model

Surface dust concentration (µg/m3)

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MEUS- Early Warning Model for Forest Fire

For the prevention of forest fires, “Meteorological Early Warning Model for Forest Fire” was developed and results of the model are sent to Directorate of Forest Administration.

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Agricultural Frost Risk Maps are prepared and published via website for 4 days and are updated every day

Agricultural Frost Warning

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Drought Monitoring

Drought is monitoring by using Aydeniz, SPI, PNI and Palmer methods

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Monthly & seasonal temperature analysesMonthly & seasonal temperature analyses

Temperature analyses have been doing by using real time data. It is using ArcGIS for interpolation and mapping purpose. It is calculating their differences from normal. Anomaly is the differences from normal (1971-2000) and it is determining by using Z distribution.

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Annual climate assessment reportAnnual climate assessment report

We are preparing annual climate assessment for Turkey . This assessments is also been contributed to WMO’s and NOAA’s State of the Climate Report.

Spatial and temporal temperature and precipitation anomalies in Turkey

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Heat Heat and and coldcold wave analysis wave analysis

Figure. Heat and cold wave occurred stations in 2012

Heat wave (The daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C) observed in 66 stations more than one time mainly in April, June, July and September. Also Cold wave was (The daily minimum temperature of more than five consecutive days decreased the average minimum temperature by 5°C) observed in 33 stations in January, February and March.

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We are using WMO RClimDex software to calculate 27 climate indices. This software is very good tools to detect trends in temperature and precipitation extremes.

Climate Indices studies

Trends in summer day (a), tropical night (b), warm days (c) and warm night (d) are increasing all over Turkey

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While temperature increasing will be limited up to 1940, towards the end of the century it will be reached 6°C

Winter precipitation dramatically decrease (%10-30) in south part of Turkey and increase (%10-25) in the north for the period of 2071-2099.

Regional climate model studiesRegional climate model studiesRegCM3 OutputsRegCM3 Outputs

New server has been bought to run RegCM-4 with new RCP Scenarios

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Ozone and UV Observations

In Ankara we are using Brewer Spectrophotometer and ozonesonde in order to observe atmospheric ozone profile

Also there are 10 UV Automatic Observation Stations (5 more planned)

www.dmi.gov.tr/kurumici/tahmin-ozon-mgm.aspx

Calculated UV values for 130 station are given at:

Ozone and UV onservations are very important for public health

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GPC, RTC, RCC,RCOF

Liaison with GFCS

CAP Needs for WMO Commission for Climatology

WMO Commission for Climatology has OPACE 3 and 4 in which coordinate GPC, RTC, RCC,RCOF and has strong liaison with GFCS. Through this centers CCl delivers climate monitoringseasonal forecast and climate watch advisory which can be delivered via xml codes.

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www.rccra6.org

TSMS take place in three nodes of RA VI RCC network

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NCEP and TSMS data are using for monitoring purposes. Monitoring data have been reprocessing, spatially enhancing and mapping by using ArcGIS Spatial Analyze IDW interpolation technique.

http://emcc.dmi.gov.tr/

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Seasonal Forecast is updated from ECMWF in every month for the next 3 month and contains precipitation and 2m temperature anomaly maps. According to WMO RA VI RCC Implementation Plan, Seasonal Forecast contains precipitation and 2m temperature anomaly maps are preparing by using ArcGIS and updated every month for the next 3 month.

http://emcc.dmi.gov.tr/

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SEECOF Contribution

2012 Summer Season Assessment of Turkey Compare to SEECOF7 Experts Forecasts

According to seasonal outlook for summer season 2012, in the most of the SEECOF region there was expected more likelihood for the above average summer season temperature, while eastern part of Turkey, it is likely to be near to above normal. Generally, mean temperatures were above normal values in almost whole country. It was expected probably 60% above normal. For the zone 2, mean temperatures were around normal as expected probably 40%.

2012 Summer Season Mean Temperature Anomaly of Turkey

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