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September 28, 2012Draft Assessment Results

Technical Committee MeetingSeptember 28, 2012

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Other Assumptions How many games do we need to do?

– There are 80 water years (sequential draw) , 77 load years (random draw), and wind year is lock-stepped with load year

– Random draws do not cover all unique combinations of water and load/wind unless we do a large number of games

– Too few games can produce uneven results Which wind year set do we use?

– There are 20 sets of temperature-correlated wind capacity factors

Look at “instantaneous” LOLP

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Number of Games How many games? … (80 x 77 = 6160)

– Sequential water pairs uniquely with load/wind by using a cycled sequence for the load years

– Game #1 pairs 1929 water with 1929 load, and the run is essentially in lockstep for the first 77 games (game #77 pairs 2005 water and load)

– Game #78 pairs 2006 water with 1929 load– Water year 1929 pairs with load year 1929,

1932, 1935, … , and so on

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Wind Capacity Sets Which one?

– For now, we selected set #18, which tested at the mid-range for LOLP at 4900 games

– The test cases were done using older assumptions (70-year hydro, some differences in wind totals, other resources)

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Wind Capacity SetsLOLP Pk LOLP E LOLP A EUSR CVaRE CVaRPk EUE LOLH

(%) (%) (%) (%) (MW-Hrs) (MW) (MW-Hrs) (Hrs/Yr)Set 1 5.2 1.4 5.2 7.9 71441 3214 3597 1.9Set 2 4.6 1.1 4.6 7.2 54060 2867 2714 1.5Set 3 4.3 0.9 4.3 6.4 52558 2871 2634 1.4Set 4 5.0 1.1 5.0 7.9 54180 3142 2735 1.5Set 5 5.2 0.9 5.2 7.8 45074 2895 2276 1.4Set 6 5.1 1.0 5.1 7.8 52843 3059 2663 1.4Set 7 4.3 0.9 4.3 6.9 60250 2711 3022 1.6Set 8 4.5 1.0 4.5 7.1 40556 2530 2038 1.3Set 9 5.2 1.2 5.2 8.2 62156 3371 3138 1.8Set 10 5.4 1.1 5.4 8.3 56837 3174 2872 1.6Set 11 5.9 1.2 5.9 8.2 56398 3413 2857 1.5Set 12 4.6 0.9 4.6 7.4 42904 2574 2157 1.4Set 13 5.4 1.2 5.4 8.3 64413 3352 3251 1.7Set 14 4.9 0.9 4.9 7.8 49639 2841 2500 1.5Set 15 5.6 1.3 5.6 8.4 54911 3281 2779 1.5Set 16 4.7 1.0 4.7 7.3 40865 2655 2055 1.3Set 17 5.4 1.2 5.4 8.3 65347 3261 3295 1.8Set 18 5.0 1.1 5.0 7.4 58156 3127 2926 1.6Set 19 4.6 1.1 4.6 7.1 57692 3078 2897 1.5Set 20 5.5 1.2 5.5 7.7 52925 3135 2676 1.7

Set 8 with 9800 4.8 1.0 4.8 7.6 43466 2673 2191 1.4Set 11 with 9800 5.6 1.2 5.6 8.1 55807 3385 2822 1.5

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Draft Assessment Results

LOLP Pk LOLP E LOLP A EUSR CVaRE CVaRPk EUE LOLHName Load Dev. Mkt. LOLP (%) (%) (%) (%) (MW-Hrs) (MW) (MW-Hrs) (Hrs/Yr)Reference Case 0.00% 1700 5.6 5.6 1.7 5.6 8.1 90574 3880 4563 2.3High Load, High Market 2.50% 3200 6.2 6.2 1.2 6.2 10.1 66642 3713 3399 1.9High Load, Low Market 2.50% 0 15.3 15.3 6.2 15.3 19.0 359651 5530 21951 11.0Low Load, High Market -2.50% 3200 2.8 2.8 0.5 2.8 4.1 21711 1777 1086 0.6Low Load, Low Market -2.50% 0 7.6 7.6 2.7 7.6 9.1 148712 3679 7802 4.3Med-High Load, Med-High Market 1.50% 2500 5.8 5.8 1.4 5.8 9.3 78127 3837 3956 2.1Med-High Load, Med-Low Market 1.50% 900 8.9 8.9 3.5 8.9 12.0 198619 4953 10489 5.2Med-Low Load, Med-High Market -1.50% 2500 3.4 3.4 0.8 3.4 5.3 37961 2390 1898 1.0Med-Low Load, Med-Low Market -1.50% 900 6 6.0 1.9 6.0 7.5 106388 3754 5378 2.8Reference Load, High Market 0.00% 3200 4.1 4.1 0.8 4.1 6.8 37202 2725 1867 1.0Reference Load, Low Market 0.00% 0 10.9 10.9 4.2 10.9 13.5 236534 4597 13246 6.9High Load, Reference Market 2.50% 1700 8.1 8.1 2.8 8.1 11.7 158220 4967 8164 4.1Low Load, Reference Market -2.50% 1700 3.7 3.7 1.0 3.7 4.9 49003 2576 2450 1.3

Study Summary

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Draft Assessment ResultsLOLP Variance due to Load/Conservation Uncertainty and On-Peak Winter Market Uncertainty

0 7.60% 10.90% 15.30%

On-Peak 900 6.00% 8.90%Winter

SWMarketSupply

(MW)

1700 3.70% 5.60% 8.10%

2500 3.40% 5.80%

3200 2.80% 4.10% 6.20%-2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50%

Load Deviations from Medium Forecast (surrogate for load+conservation uncertainty)

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LOLP Uncertainty Surface using the Exponential Fit

Load change in percent from medium >>>>Market -2.50 -2.25 -2.00 -1.75 -1.50 -1.25 -1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50

0 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.8100 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3200 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.9300 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5400 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.1500 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.7600 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.3700 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.5 11.9800 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.6900 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2

1000 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.91100 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.61200 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.21300 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.6 9.91400 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.61500 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.31600 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.11700 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.5 8.81800 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.51900 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.32000 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.02100 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.82200 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.62300 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.32400 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.12500 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.92600 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.72700 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.52800 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.32900 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.13000 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.93100 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.73200 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6

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Note: The outlined cells have "actual" values, the rest are "fit" values from the equations

Load change in percent from medium >>>>Market -2.50 -2.25 -2.00 -1.75 -1.50 -1.25 -1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50

0 7.6 10.9 15.3100200300 Probability of LOLP > 5% = 58% 95% Confidence = ± 2.14400 Probability of LOLP <= 5% = 42%500600 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7700 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 8.8800 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.3 9.2900 5.9 6.0 6.3 8.6 8.9 9.3 8.9

1000 5.5 5.7 5.9 8.7 8.1 9.31100 5.3 5.5 8.7 8.1 9.41200 5.0 5.2 8.8 9.11300 4.8 5.0 8.9 9.21400 4.5 4.7 8.6 8.91500 4.4 4.5 8.3 8.7 9.01600 4.2 4.4 8.1 8.4 8.71700 3.7 4.3 5.6 8.1 8.5 8.11800 4.0 4.1 7.9 8.21900 3.9 4.0 7.7 8.02000 3.7 3.9 7.4 7.72100 3.6 3.8 7.22200 3.5 3.7 6.7 7.02300 3.4 3.6 6.5 6.82400 3.3 3.4 3.6 6.3 6.62500 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.4 5.8 6.2 6.42600 3.2 3.4 5.5 5.7 6.02700 3.1 3.3 3.4 5.4 5.62800 3.2 3.3 3.4 5.0 5.2 5.42900 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.7 4.9 5.03000 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.73100 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.43200 2.8 4.1 6.2

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Load change in percent from medium >>>>Market -2.50 -2.25 -2.00 -1.75 -1.50 -1.25 -1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50

0100200300400500600700800900

1000110012001300 To get 5% LOLP for the 1400 Reference Case, we added 1500 a 300 MW CT resource16001700 5.0180019002000210022002300240025002600270028002900300031003200

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Load change in percent from medium >>>>Market -2.50 -2.25 -2.00 -1.75 -1.50 -1.25 -1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50

0100200 To get 5% LOLP for a case that originally had300 8.3% LOLP and is on or near the 95% border,400 we added a 1500 MW CT500600 This case needed700 a 1600 MW CT800 5.0 to reach 5.0%900 was 8.9

1000 This case needed1100 was 8.1 a 1450 MW CT120013001400150016001700 3.018001900 Applying the 1500 MW CT2000 to the Reference Case2100 resulted in a 3.0% LOLP22002300240025002600270028002900300031003200

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September 28, 2012 Assessment