september 17, 2015 cuba standard is editor of · september 17, 2015 . agenda item 3.: presentation...
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September 17, 2015 AGENDA ITEM 3.: PRESENTATION – JOHANNES WERNER, EDITOR,
CUBA STANDARD
Johannes Werner is editor of www.CubaStandard.com, the only independent information service exclusively focused on the Cuban economy and business in Cuba. Cuba Standard counts practically all foreign companies and entrepreneurs that already do business in the island among its readers, as well as many foreign embassies, members of the Castro family, the Cuba desk of the U.S. State Department and the CIA. One-third of Cuba Standard subscribers are based in Cuba and the rest spans the globe. Johannes Werner has been traveling to Cuba since 1999. He has worked for 20 years as a business/economic journalist in Europe, Latin America and the United States, producing award-winning articles that cover a wide range of beats. Johannes has a master’s degree in modern history and Latin American literature from Freie Universität Berlin.
Cuba is a very different country, and it will continue to be different
Cuba trade veteran Kirby Jones: ’Cubans are not in a hurry’ ’The government is not going to roll over’ ’U.S. corporations are not going to call the
shots’
Florida-Cuba ferries
Pre-D17: GDP comparable to that of Miami Five years of economic reform failed to
produce a spike of Cuba’s GDP Private-sector growth stalled Slow pace of negotiations at the Mariel
Special Development Zone
The pace of negotiations is accelerating
The pace of deals is accelerating
Mariel Zone: 120 commitments
The driver: U.S.-Cuba Normalization talks
Resumption of diplomatic relations
Some tangible results
The pace of talks is s l o w
Limited benefits for U.S. companies
But everybody else wants to be in Cuba before the Americans arrive
European ministers visit Cuba Japan’s foreign minister visits Cuba Closer relationship with China Very close relationship with Brazil Closer relationship with Russia
High-profile visits
High-profile visits
What matters most are the business delegations
Hundreds of corporations have sent their executives to Cuba to scout for opportunities or negotiate deals
Old projects suddenly materialize
Debt and credit: Cuba cleaned up its act and has been a good
borrower for the past decade, even through the 2008-2009 liquidity crunch
Paris Club renegotiation Export credit agencies from Spain, UK,
France, Japan resume or increase Cuba programs
Tourism
Hotel management contracts
Hotel construction
Golf projects
The crown jewel: Mariel
CMA CGM logistics hub
We expect GDP growth to take off this year
Long-term forecast for Cuba looks excellent Highly educated and entrepreneurial
population; Eager to try, optimistic; Location, location, location
And U.S. businesses?
Time to plan Time to scout and contribute (Caterpillar) Time to get into action (AirBnb, IDT Telecom,
Carnival Cruises, Norwegian Cruises, ferry entrepreneurs)
Take-Away: Any U.S. company that enters Cuba must: be aware that most business is not possible
immediately; be VERY patient; Have other expansion plans