september 11 quarterly report (final)

Sunshine Coast Destination Limited

September 2011 Quarter Report

REPORT STATUS : FINAL

Issued : 10th October 2011Pacific Tower737 Burwood RoadHawthorn Melbourne 3122

Tel : 61 03 98300612

Section 1 : Introduction

Introduction

• The purpose of this report is to provide a relevant, timely and concise report on Tourism trends on the Sunshine Coast for the Industry Operators and other Stakeholders.

• The scope of the report includes the following :-

• Section 1: Introduction.• Section 2 : The external environment and tourism trends.• Section 3 : Sunshine Coast overview.• Section 4 : Domestic overnight trends.• Section 5 : International trends.• Section 6 : Visitor Outlook.• Section 7 : Key Point summary.

• Note : Data used in the charts is trended data unless stated otherwise. Trending refers to a 12 month moving average.

2September 11 Quarterly ReportApril 11, 2023

Section 1 : Introduction

Data Sources

• This report uses a number of data sources.

• Roy Morgan Research Single Source (June 2011).

• Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data (September 2011).

• International Visitor Survey (June 2011).

• Domestic Visitor Survey (June 2011).

• Australian Bureau of Statistics - Tourist Accommodation (July 2011).

• Australian Bureau of Statistics – Arrivals / Departures data (July 2011).


Australian GDP and Consumer Confidence

• The Australian economy is growing - but only just under the weight of higher interest rates, global uncertainty and also the impact of the Qld. floods.

• Consumer (and Business) Confidence is well up from the GFC induced lows of 2008, however, confidence has softened under the weight of interest rate rises and a softening share market.

Section 2 : External Environment

Source : ABS Source : Roy Morgan Research


State Final Demand*

• WA and Qld are leading thanks to the strength in the Mining Sector and recovery in Qld.

• Vic. going OK as well as SA, NSW is slowing down.


Source : ABS

* State Final Demand (SFD) is an important measure of economic activity. It is an estimate of the level of spending in the local economy by the private and public sectors. Spending is reported on the basis of consumption of goods and services, and capital investment.


Inbound and outbound travel

• With the high $A – Australians are jumping on planes for overseas holidays although growth has slowed with the economic uncertainty.

• Inbound as well was recovering but growth is now slowing :-

• New Zealand arrivals (+4.3%), but growth has slowed. The German market is declining (-3.5%) and also the UK market (-2.9%).


Source : ABS


Total Sunshine Coast Visitor Spending

• Sunshine Coast Visitors (Day trippers, domestic overnight and inbound), spent just over $2.3B on the Coast. This provides 17% of the gross regional product :-

• Total spending grew by 1.1% due to a recovery in the overnight markets which grew 5.5%.

• Share of Queensland spending has improved again and is at record levels at 12.9%.

Day TripsOvernight(Inbound / Domestic)

Total

($) % p.a. ($) % p.a. ($) % p.a.

Jun 08 456,000,000 9.1 2,002,000,000 6.9 2,458,000,000 7.3

Jun 09 374,000,000 -18.0 1,860,000,000 -7.1 2,234,000,000 -9.1

Jun 10 446,000,000 19.3 1,863,000,000 0.2 2,309,000,000 3.4

Jun 11 369,000,000 -17.3 1,966,000,000 5.5 2,335,000,000 1.1Share of Spending (%) - RHS

Total Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS

Section 3 : Sunshine Coast Overview

Source :NVS / IVS


Total Sunshine Coast Visitors

• Total visitation to the Sunshine Coast (Day trippers, Domestic overnight and International overnight) is now 7.4M visits in a year.

• Visitation overall is down 6.2% this year, but this is mainly due to the fall in day trippers.

• Day trippers are the largest segment in terms of people (4.3M visitors in 2011), but they spend much less per trip than overnight visitors and numbers have fallen (-15.7%).

Total VisitorsInternational

OvernightDomestic Overnight Day Trips

Visitors % p.a.% of total




Jun-08 7,760,000 -9.0 100% 282,000 -3.1 3.6% 2,936,000 -0.4 37.8% 4,542,000 -14.2 58.5%

Jun-09 7,971,000 2.7 100% 276,000 -2.3 3.5% 2,589,000 -11.8 32.5% 5,106,000 12.4 64.1%

Jun-10 7,875,000 -1.2 100% 280,000 1.6 3.6% 2,439,000 -5.8 31.0% 5,156,000 1.0 65.5%

Jun-11 7,388,000 -6.2 100% 260,000 -7.3 3.5% 2,783,000 14.1 37.7% 4,345,000 -15.7 58.8%

Total Visitors

Source :NVS / IVS



Sunshine Coast Visitors

• Total Inbound has trended up over the long term but has slowed with the slowdown caused by more global financial turmoil. The domestic overnight visitors are showing continued signs of improvement.

• Day trippers are the most numerous by far , but numbers have fallen substantially over the last year.

Source :NVS / IVS



Visitor Trends –Summary Table (excludes Day Trippers)

• The Sunshine Coast has been positively impacted by the better domestic holiday market, with overall expenditure up 5.5%.

• Business has recovered but this is a small component and domestic visiting friends and relatives is growing as well.

Year Ended June 2010

VISITORS HOLIDAY VFR BUSINESSEXPENDITURE

($)

Domestic Overnight

2,783,000 1,609,000 790,000 272,000 1,729,000,000

Annual Change %

14.1 7.7 2.1 126.7 5.9

International Overnight

259,898 169,940 57,145 6,269 237,000,000

Annual Change %

-7.3 -11.1 0.5 1.0 3.0

TOTAL 3,042,898 1,773,940 847,145 278,269 1,966,000,000

Annual Change %

11.9 5.4 2.0 120.5 5.5



Sunshine Coast – Accommodation Occupancy Rates

• Sunshine Coast Occupancy levels have been trending down but now occupancies have improved again (June 11 compared with June 10).

• Whitsundays continues to be soft, Gold Coast a little weaker.

• Queensland overall has a lift thanks to more business travel.

Room Occupancy Rates (%)15 rooms or more

Sunshine Coast

Gold Coast

Whitsundays TNQ Qld.

Jun-08 49.4 59.6 48.4 53.8 61.5

Jun-09 47.1 57.8 44.8 51.8 57.6

Jun-10 46.5 59.5 45.6 50.5 58.5

Jun-11 47.5 57.1 45.6 54.9 61

Source : ABS



The Australian and Qld. Domestic Market

• A mixed performance characterises the Aus. Domestic market (year to June 2011) :-

• Total visitors increased 4%, with the biggest increase in VFR up 5% and business up 8% holiday visitors declined 1%.

• Overall spending was below the inflation rate, with spending rising just 1%, holiday was down 4% as people continued to tighten their belts in efforts to increase their household savings.

• Qld. grew at the same rate as the Australian average with numbers up 4%.

• The overall holiday market declined 1%.

• The intrastate holiday market was flat, while the interstate holiday market declined 3%.

• Overall spending fell 4%, with a large fall in holiday spending -9%.

Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market


Air Capacity (As at March 2011)

• Sunshine Coast airport had a domestic capacity of 9,089 seats on average in Sept. 11, this is a reduction of about 3,000 seats from March 11.

• This reduction is mainly due to the reduced air services by Tiger Airlines.

WEEKLY DOMESTIC

SEATS

WEEKLY DOMESTIC

SEATS

WEEKLY DOMESTIC

SEATS

Number March 2011

Number June 2011

Number Sept 2011

Brisbane 130,857 129,497 130,783

Gold Coast 54,236 51,090 51,060

Cairns 38,878 34,109 37,867

Townsville 16,693 10,489 15,757

Mackay 12,508 10,611 12,610

Sunshine Coast 12,193 11,205 9.089



Sunshine Coast – Domestic Visitor Spending

Share of Spending (%) - RHS

Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS

Domestic Overnight

SC Spending

$

% Change

p.a.

Market Share (%)

Jun-08 1,822,000,000 10.4 14.5

Jun-09 1,654,000,000 -9.2 14.5

Jun-10 1,633,000,000 -1.3 14.1

Jun-11 1,729,000,000 5.9 15.6

• Spending by domestic overnight visitors to the Sunshine Coast increased in the year ended June 2011, growing by 5.9% compared to year ended June 11.

• Overnight visitors are now spending an impressive $1,729M on the Coast.

• Sunshine Coast also grew market share in the June 11 year and is now at record levels.

Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast – Total Visitors and Visitor Nights

Domestic Visitor Nights (%)

Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

Domestic Overnight

SC Visitors

% Change

p.a.

Domestic Nights

% Change

p.a.

Jun-07 2,947,000 7.8 11,226,000 -1.1

Jun-08 2,936,000 -0.4 13,132,000 17.0

Jun-09 2,589,000 -11.8 10,269,000 -21.8

Jun-10 2,439,000 -5.8 10,602,000 3.2

Jun-11 2,783,000 14.1 10,652,000 0.5

• Visitor numbers are up compared to last year (+14.1%) and nights are up as well (+0.5%).

• Looking at the long term trends, visitor numbers are about the same as they were 10 years ago and visitor nights are slightly lower.

Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast – Interstate and Intrastate

INTER-state

Visitors

% Change

p.a.

INTER-state Nights

% Change

p.a.

INTRA-state

Visitors

% Change

p.a.

INTRA-state Nights

% Change

p.a.

Jun- 07 799,000 0.5 4,980,000 -4.4 2,148,000 10.8 6,246,000 1.7

Jun- 08 846,000 5.9 6,809,000 36.7 2,090,000 -2.7 6,323,000 1.2

Jun- 09 665,000 -21.4 4,254,000 -37.5 1,924,000 -7.9 6,015,000 -4.9

Jun-10 700,000 5.3 5,128,000 20.5 1,739,000 -9.6 5,474,000 -9.0

Jun-11 765,000 9.3 4,442,000 -13.4 2,018,000 16.0 6,210,000 13.4

• Main reason for the rise in spending is the rise in intrastate visitor nights :-

• Interstate visitor nights were lower in 2011 after a strong 2010, reflecting the weaker economic climate and the growth in outbound.

Source : NVS



SC – Domestic Market Share (%)

Share of Visitor Nights (%)

Share of Visitors (%)SC

Share of QLD Visitors

(%)

SC Share

of QLD nights

(%)

Gold Coast

Share of QLD

Visitors (%)

Whitsundays

Share of QLD

Visitors (%)

Tropical North Qld.

Share of QLD

Visitors (%)

Jun- 07 16.6 14.6 21.1 3.4 8.3

Jun- 08 17.0 17.4 20.1 3.0 8.4

Jun- 09 16.1 15.2 19.7 2.5 9.4

Jun-10 15.5 15.0 20.8 2.9 9.1

Jun-11 16.9 15.6 20.1 3.0 7.7

• Both the Sunshine Coast’s share of nights and visitors improved in the year ended June 11

• Share of visitors peaked in 2005 when the domestic economy was particularly strong, then held quite well during the GFC.

• In 2010 shares softened but picked up in the June 11 year.

Source :NVS



SC – Average Length of Stay (Nights)

SC Average

Length of Stay

(nights)

Gold Coast

Average Length of

Stay (nights)

Whitsundays

Average Length of Stay (nights)

Tropical North Qld.

Average Length of Stay (nights)

Qld Average Length of Stay (nights)

Jun- 07 3.8 4.3 4.3 5.4 4.3

Jun- 08 4.5 4.5 5.3 5.6 4.4

Jun- 09 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.2

Jun-10 4.3 4.3 4.6 6.0 4.5

Jun-11 3.8 3.9 4.2 6.0 4.2

• Sunshine Coast visitors average length of stay improved slightly in the June 11 quarter.

• The average length of stay is remarkably stable, the exception being in 2003 when the Queensland economy really boomed and consumers enjoyed longer holidays.

• Average length of stay is also lower than the overall Queensland average of 4.2 nights, but is similar to the Gold Coast and much lower than Tropical North Queensland.

Sunshine Coast

Queensland

Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast – Source Markets by Visitors

NSW

QLD

QLD NSW VicRest of

Australia

Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a.

Jun- 07 2,148,000 10.8 409,000 4.3 260,000 -8.5 130,000 9.2

Jun- 08 2,090,000 -2.7 454,000 11.0 274,000 5.4 118,000 -9.2

Jun- 09 1,924,000 -7.9 355,000 -21.8 210,000 -23.4 100,000 -15.3

Jun-10 1,739,000 -9.6 343,000 -3.4 243,000 15.7 114,000 14.0

Jun-11 2,018,000 16.0 386,000 12.5 248,000 2.1 131,000 14.9

VIC.Rest of Aus.

• The Queensland and NSW markets are showing signs of recovery after the GFC :-

• Queenslanders make up the biggest component of the domestic overnight market.

• The Victorian market is also now recovering.

• The rest of Australia is growing strongly.

Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast – Source Markets % of total visitors

NSW

QLD

QLD NSW VicRest of

Australia

% Total % p.a. % Total % Total

Jun- 07 72.9 13.9 8.8 4.4

Jun- 08 71.2 15.5 9.3 4.0

Jun- 09 74.3 13.7 8.1 3.9

Jun-10 71.3 14.1 10.0 4.7

Jun-11 72.5 13.9 8.9 4.7

VIC.Rest of Aus.

• Of all the domestic overnight visitors to the Sunshine Coast, Queenslanders are by far the most important. They comprise 72.5 % of visitors currently and this level has been fairly stable over 10 years.

Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast – Brisbane and Regional Qld. visitors

Brisbane

Brisbane (42.9% of

total)

Regional Qld. (29.5%

of total)

Visitors % Change Visitors % Change

Jun- 07 1,407,000 24.3 741,000 -8.2

Jun- 08 1,347,000 -4.3 742,000 0.1

Jun- 09 1,218,000 -9.6 706,000 -4.9

Jun-10 1,056,000 -13.3 683,000 -3.3

Jun-11 1,195,000 13.2 822,000 20.4

Regional Qld.

• The Brisbane market is the most important, providing 42.9% of all domestic overnight visitors. This market is showing some signs of recovery.

• The Queensland regional market is also significant, but is still below the 2005 peak but it is improving.

Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast – Visitor Nights from origin markets

Qld Brisbane Regional Qld NSW VicRest of

Australia

Total Sunshine

Coast Visitor Nights

Visitor Nights Visitor Nights Visitor Nights Visitor Nights Visitor Nights Visitor Nights Visitor Nights

Jun- 07 6,246,000 3,780,000 2,466,000 2,358,000 1,751,000 871,000 11,226,000

Jun- 08 6,323,000 3,886,000 2,437,000 2,446,000 3,517,000 846,000 13,132,000

Jun- 09 6,015,000 3,708,000 2,307,000 1,904,000 1,680,000 670,000 10,269,000

Jun-10 5,474,000 3,242,000 2,232,000 1,785,000 2,411,000 932,000 10,602,000

Jun-11 6,210,000 3,661,000 2,549,000 1,947,000 1,451,000 1,044,000 10,652,000

• The Brisbane market is the most important market overall in terms of visitor nights to the Coast as well. Visitor nights are now recovering strongly. They are growing again from Regional Qld. and NSW.

• Nights from the Victorian market have really softened.

Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast – Source Markets Share of Qld.

NSW

QLD

QLD NSW VicRest of

Australia

(%) (%) (%) (%)

Jun- 07 17.9 12.3 16.2 14.3

Jun- 08 18.2 13.9 17.7 12.7

Jun- 09 17.5 12.0 15.8 12.2

Jun-10 16.6 11.7 16.4 13.7

Jun-11 18.3 12.7 16.6 15.4

VIC.

Rest of Aus.

• This measures the Sunshine Coast’s market share - for example the Sunshine Coast’s share of the Victorians that travel to Queensland.

• The Sunshine Coast has its highest market share amongst Queenslanders and this share is lifting again :-

• The Sunshine Coast also wins a strong share amongst the Victorians. The warmer weather is a particularly strong appeal to this group. Share though, has been flat since 2007.

• Share of the rest of Australia has improved considerably and NSW share is also picking up.

Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast - Purpose of Visit

Visiting Friends and Relatives

Holiday/LeisureHoliday / Leisure

(57% of total )Friends and

Relatives(28% of total)

Business(10% of total )

Education(2.7% of total)

Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a.

Jun- 07 1,861,000 13.1 863,000 -1.4 181,000 5.8

Jun- 08 1,720,000 -7.6 913,000 5.8 214,000 18.2

Jun- 09 1,633,000 -5.1 750,000 -17.9 154,000 -28.0

Jun-10 1,492,000 -8.6 774,000 3.2 120,000 -22.1

Jun-11 1,604,000 7.5 790,000 2.1 272,000 126.7 16,000* 14*

BusinessOther

• The holiday / leisure market is the most important market for the Sunshine Coast, by far, accounting for 57% of overnight domestic visitors :-

• The Sunshine Coast continues to be a holiday destination with 59% of domestic visitors saying this is the reason they visit. The beaches, weather, restaurants /cafes, hinterland and overall ambience are the key reasons why people holiday in Coast.

• As the local population increases, more VFR visitors are coming to the coast and their proportion of total visitors is increasing, now they are 28% of all domestic visitors, however, they are lower spenders. Business visitors are recovering as the economy overall improves.

Source : NVS and * TQ estimate Dec 10Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers

• The Southern Sub-region has been trending up slowly over the last 10 years and experienced a very good year to June 2011. The Hinterland has been increasing visitors as the cooler climate and Hinterland offer have become more appealing. The year to June 11 was also very good for the Hinterland. The Central Sub-region has been trending down for years and now has nearly half the visits of 2004 but in the year to June 11 is showing an improvement.

• The Northern Sub-region has been trending up slowly over the years and has weathered the GFC. In fact the Northern Sub-region hit a domestic visitation record in the June 11 year. Cooloola also had a very good year.

Southern Hinterland Central Northern Cooloola

Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a.

Jun- 07 456,000 8.8 272,000 24.2 783,000 10.3 659,000 -1.9 308,000 1.7

Jun- 08 524,000 14.9 251,000 -7.7 882,000 12.6 679,000 3.0 293,000 -4.9

Jun- 09 444,000 -15.3 218,000 -13.1 677,000 -23.2 756,000 11.3 291,000 -0.7

Jun-10 404,000 -9.0 287,000 31.7 548,000 -19.1 814,000 7.7 246,000 -15.5

Jun-11 526,000 30.2 349,000 21.6 560,000 2.2 943,000 15.8 369,000 50.0

Source :NVS



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers

• This charts shows the long term trends in Sub regional numbers from the previous page.

Northern

Central

Southern

HinterlandCooloola


26September 11 Quarterly Report

Source : NVS

April 11, 2023

Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (Qld)

• The Northern Sub-region has been performing well from the Qld. market with visitor numbers increasing. Hinterland sub region as well has been growing.

• The Southern Sub-region and Cooloola Sub-region are picking in up a little as well.

• The real loss has been with the Central Sub-region but that is showing signs of stabilising.


Visitors Visitors Visitors Visitors Visitors

Jun- 07 357,000 213,000 574,000 398,000 243,000

Jun- 08 403,000 197,000 656,000 369,000 236,000

Jun- 09 362,000 177,000 474,000 513,000 256,000

Jun-10 316,000 245,000 362,000 510,000 215,000

Jun-11 385,000 263,000 379,000 639,000 317,000

Source :NVS

NorthernCentral

Southern

Hinterland Cooloola



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (NSW)

• The Northern Sub region has been performing well from the NSW market since 2005 with visitor numbers increasing. Hinterland Sub-region as well has been growing.

• The Southern Sub-region and Cooloola Sub-region are now also improving.

• The real loss again has been with the Central Sub-region, since 2004, but numbers have been steady since 2009.



Jun- 07 61,000 31,000 107,000 108,000 32,000

Jun- 08 65,000 33,000 117,000 160,000 36,000

Jun- 09 48,000 27,000 96,000 138,000 24,000

Jun-10 39,000 31,000 80,000 147,000 9,000

Jun-11 68,000 57,000 80,000 151,000 28,000

Source :NVS

Northern

Central

Southern Hinterland

Cooloola



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (Vic)

• The Southern Sub-region is showing signs of improvement from this market.

• The Northern Sub-region is better. The Central area is steady.

• For the Hinterland and Cooloola this is a very small market.



Jun- 07 20,000 15,000 66,000 105,000 26,000

Jun- 08 40,000 13,000 67,000 116,000 18,000

Jun- 09 26,000 7,000 67,000 80,000 7,000

Jun-10 25,000 6,000 69,000 114,000 16,000

Jun-11 34,000 10,000 69,000 117,000 14,000

Source :NVS

Northern

Central

Southern

Hinterland

Cooloola



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (rest of Aus)

• The Northern Sub-region is showing signs of improvement after the GFC.

• The Southern sub-region is growing strongly.

• For the Hinterland and Cooloola this is a very small market.



Jun- 07 18,000 12,000 36,000 48,000 8,000

Jun- 08 16,000 8,000 42,000 34,000 3,000

Jun- 09 8,000 6,000 40,000 26,000 3,000

Jun-10 23,000 5,000 37,000 42,000 5,000

Jun-11 39,000 19,000 31,000 36,000 10,000

Source :NVS

Northern

Central Southern

Hinterland

Cooloola



Sunshine Coast Preference

Sunshine Coast Gold Coast Whitsundays Tropical

North Qld.

PreferenceShare (%)*

Share (%)* Share (%)* Share (%)*

Jun- 07 2,404,000 31.1 43.6 23.8 25.8

Jun- 08 2,388,000 31.1 43.6 23.6 25.5

Jun- 09 2,449,000 31.2 44.1 23.1 24.7

Jun-10 2,254,000 29.0 43.7 23.4 23.8

Jun-11 2,207,000 28.3 42.2 21.4 25.4

• Preference measures where Australian consumers would like to have holiday of at least one night or more over the next 2 years. It is an important measure of the desirability of a destination and is collected via a survey conducted by Roy Morgan Research Pty Ltd.

• The Sunshine Coast has 2.207million people who would like to have a holiday on the Coast and this gives the Coast a 28% share. Preference has been falling for years though and the reasons have been documented. There is a hint in the last quarter that the decline maybe stabilising.

• The Gold Coast has the highest Preference and this Preference has remained fairly stable, even over the GFC.

•Share of Qld. Preference Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study



Sunshine Coast Preference

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane

Preference Preference Preference

Jun- 07 369,000 400,000 611,000

Jun- 08 377,000 367,000 592,000

Jun- 09 384,000 403,000 539,000

Jun-10 282,000 365,000 620,000

Jun-11 338,000 301,000 610,000

• The Preference decline has been most significant from the Sydney market as this market has also been effected by a relatively weak economy since 2001. Preference has improved recently as the economy has started to pick-up.

• Brisbane has been holding up and even got a lift from the recent advertising.

• Victoria has weakened under the weight of the bad weather story in the lead up to Christmas.

Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study




Sunshine Coast Preference – HH Income Segments

$35K or less

$35K to $80K

$80K to $110K

$110K

Preference Preference Preference Preference

Jun- 07 345,000 690,000 392,000 469,000

Jun- 08 319,000 671,000 379,000 497,000

Jun- 09 301,000 613,000 401,000 603,000

Jun-10 285,000 579,000 344,000 543,000

Jun-11 279,000 504,000 356,000 614,000

• Preference levels for the Sunshine Coast vary between the income groups.

• Preference continues to grow amongst the highest income groups. These consumers, when they visit, are also the biggest spenders so are very desirable.




April 11, 2023


Sunshine Coast – Positioning Profile


• This charts the alignment of a destination (in this case the Sunshine Coast) with Lifestyle Segments.

• For example, while Affluent Families are 8% of the population, they account for 12% of Sunshine Coast Preference – that is this segment has a higher propensity to want to holiday on the Sunshine Coast.

• This Positioning Maps shows the Sunshine Coast is more aligned with the family and more affluent segments. These are the core segments.

Affluent Families (8%) Affluent Empty

Nesters (6%)

Golden Age Lifestylers (1%)

Average Age (years)Source : Roy Morgan Single Source June 11 (3 year average)10 20 4030 50 60 70 80

0

60

20

10

50

70

40

30

EMDA Consumer Positioning Map EMDA Lifestyle SegmentationBase :Australia

TMSunshine Coast Preferrers

Students (7%)

Affluent Singles (7%)

Spend it All Singles (10%)

Battler Families (12%)

Surviving Families (8%)

Struggling Retirees (5%)

Mid Income Empty Nesters (10%)

Surviving Empty Nesters (10%)

Grey Survivors (11%)

2%

Affluent Couples (3%)

Saving Couples (2%)

7%

3%

12%8%

2%

15%

12%

5%2%

8%8%

9%

6%

C EMDA 2003

April 11, 2023

Sunshine Coast Preference – Core Segments

Affluent Families

Battler Families

Affluent Empty

Nesters

Preference Preference Preference

Jun- 07 283,000 394,000 177,000

Jun- 08 295,000 334,000 201,000

Jun- 09 265,000 355,000 186,000

Jun-10 243,000 347,000 177,000

Jun-11 258,000 320,000 183,000

• Preference has been trending down amongst the Affluent Families and Battler Families , but there are signs now that Preference is starting to improve.

• Preference amongst the Affluent Empty Nesters has remained solid even during the GFC.





April 11, 2023

Aus. and Qld- International Market Trends

• The International holiday market to Australia is steady (year to June 11) :-

• This market is starting to recover after the GFC but renewed uncertainty is impacting and also the high $A, visitor numbers are up , just (+1.0%). Overall expenditure is up 4%.

• The New Zealand holiday market is weaker (down 4%).

• The European holiday market is also down 5%.

• QLD. saw a recovery in international visitation numbers in 2010 (+1%), in line with the rest of Australia, but the holiday market suffered and total spending is well down :-

• The poor weather dragged on the Qld. holiday market and visitation fell by -5%. The NZ holiday market was especially weak is down 11%. Europe as well is well down in the holiday market (-8%).

• VFR was the stronger component, with visitor numbers up 2% to Qld.

• International business travel picked up considerably (17% in Qld) as the economy improved.

• Total spending by International visitors is well down (-6%).

Section 5: International Overnight Market


Sunshine Coast – Spending

Share of Qld. Spending (%) - RHS


Inter-national

Overnight SC

Spending $*

% Change p.a.

(Spending)

Market Share of

Qld. spending

(%)

Jun- 08 180,000,000 -18.9 4.6

Jun- 09 206,000,000 14.4 5.2

Jun-10 230,000,000 11.7 6.0

Jun-11 237,000,000 3.0 6.5

• The International market continues to be a strong market for the Sunshine Coast , with spending and share of trending up:-

• Spending by visitors is at near record levels.

• The Sunshine Coast is also gaining in share of spending amongst inbound and is at equal record levels.

• This continues to represent opportunities for the Sunshine Coast.


Source : IVS, *note includes package expenditure


Regions – Inbound visitors



• The Sunshine Coast has been gaining steadily in this market for years on a long term trends basis, although the June 11 year was a little softer :-

• After the impact of the floods, now the world economy looks shaky thanks to global concerns about European and US debt levels.

SUNSHINE COAST

GOLD COASTWHIT-

SUNDAYS

TROPICAL NORTH

QLD

Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors%

p.a.

Jun- 07 291,410 23.0 829,595 0.0 208,560 -4.4 840,947 -3.2

Jun- 08 282,415 -3.1 849,114 2.4 227,961 9.3 825,808 -1.8

Jun- 09 275,897 -2.3 785,979 -7.4 217,598 -4.5 702,695 -14.9

Jun-10 280,396 1.6 825,618 5.0 213,144 -2.0 653,632 -7.0

Jun-11 259,898 -7.3 753,265 -8.8 186,504 -12.5 648,959 -0.7

Gold Coast

TNQ

Sunshine CoastWhitsundays

Source : IVS



Regions – Inbound Visitor Nights



• The Sunshine Coast has been gaining inbound visitor nights steadily:-

• The Gold Coast has the highest level and this has been flat over the last three years.

• Visitor nights have dropped in TNQ and the Whitsundays have been soft as well.

SUNSHINE COAST

GOLD COAST

WHIT-SUNDAYS

TROPICAL NORTH

QLD

Visitor Nights Visitor Nights Visitor Nights Visitor Nights

Jun- 07 2,840,581 7,483,598 1,291,900 6,956,204

Jun- 08 2,396,880 8,072,104 1,221,325 6,438,466

Jun- 09 2,324,972 7,872,593 1,352,089 6,612,129

Jun-10 2,496,447 8,053,738 1,152,550 6,090,725

Jun-11 2,678,080 7,722,704 1,086,254 5,723,492

Gold Coast

TNQ

Sunshine Coast

WhitsundaysSource : IVS



Regions – Average Length of Stay



• The Sunshine Coast average length of stay is on a par with the Gold Coast and also Tropical North Queensland :-

• Across these three regions average length of stay has been trending up.

• Average length of stay is steady on the Whitsundays.

SUNSHINE COAST

GOLD COAST

WHIT-SUNDAYS

TROPICAL NORTH

QLDQLD

Days Days Days Days Days

Jun- 07 9.7 9.0 6.2 8.3 16.3

Jun- 08 8.5 9.5 5.4 7.8 18.3

Jun- 09 8.4 10.0 6.2 9.4 19.8

Jun-10 8.9 9.8 5.4 9.3 19.8

Jun-11 10.3 10.3 5.8 8.8 19.9

Gold Coast

TNQSunshine Coast

Whitsundays

Source : IVS



Sunshine Coast – Inbound visitors by market



• The Sunshine Coast’s No. 1 inbound market is New Zealand (29.7% of inbound) :-

• The New Zealand market has been weak since the GFC but is now steady on the Sunshine Coast.

• The German markets continues to trend up. Other markets are softening thanks to the global debt concerns.

NZ UK GermanyOther

EuropeAsia

Visitors% of total

Visitors% of total

Visitors% of total

Visitors% of total

Visitors% of total

Jun- 07 103,271 35.4 61,461 21.1 20,307 7.0 48,990 16.8 17,214 5.9

Jun- 08 88,983 31.5 58,283 20.6 21,888 7.8 53,447 18.9 20,817 7.4

Jun- 09 76,499 27.7 64,793 23.5 23,118 8.4 53,022 19.2 19,023 6.9

Jun-10 81,264 29.0 62,850 22.4 22,924 8.2 52,298 18.7 19,468 6.9

Jun-11 77,311 29.7 54,848 21.1 24,650 9.5 50,774 19.5 14,790 5.7

UK

Other Europe

New Zealand

Germany Asia

Source : IVS



Sunshine Coast – Inbound visitors by ALOS



• Asian visitors have the highest average length of stay and its growing again. NZ, Germany , UK and other Europe are all fairly similar.

NZ UK GermanyOther

EuropeAsia

Nights Nights Nights Nights Nights

Jun- 07 9.0 7.7 11.0 8.6 28.5

Jun- 08 8.8 6.3 6.8 5.9 21.6

Jun- 09 7.4 7.2 9.5 6.7 18.1

Jun-10 8.2 8.7 10.3 6.8 11.5

Jun-11 9.4 8.5 7.6 9.5 25.8

UK

Other Europe

New Zealand

Germany

Asia

Source : IVS



New Zealand Inbound visitors



• This is the most important inbound market for the Sunshine Coast :-

• The impact of the GFC and recession in New Zealand is apparent, with NZ numbers softening for the Sunshine Coast since 2007. Since 2008 numbers have been stable, but now they are softening again due to the global uncertainty.

• The Gold Coast is losing visitors from this market.

SUNSHINE COAST

GOLD COAST

WHIT-SUNDAYS

TROPICAL NORTH

QLD

Visitors Visitors Visitors Visitors

Jun- 07 103,271 219,209 7,399 37,493

Jun- 08 88,983 221,824 10,826 43,331

Jun- 09 76,499 204,665 8,862 38,086

Jun-10 81,264 199,607 7,459 33,725

Jun-11 77,311 182,169 6,850 35,646

Gold Coast

TNQ

Sunshine Coast

WhitsundaysSource : IVS



UK Inbound visitors



• The Sunshine Coast has held visitor numbers in this market :-

• Tropical North Queensland has been losing in this segment since 2006 and the recent cyclone and GFC have not helped this situation and now the global uncertainty is impacting.

SUNSHINE COAST

GOLD COAST

WHIT-SUNDAYS

TROPICAL NORTH

QLD


Jun- 07 61,461 69,121 62,364 157,198

Jun- 08 58,283 68,658 65,553 141,190

Jun- 09 64,793 68,441 62,335 125,610

Jun-10 62,850 80,122 63,617 112,908

Jun-11 54,848 62,691 49,592 92,676

Gold Coast

TNQ


Source : IVS



German Inbound visitors



• The German market is softening slightly overall but the Sunshine Coast continues to grow market share.

SUNSHINE COAST

GOLD COAST

WHIT-SUNDAYS

TROPICAL NORTH

QLD


Jun- 07 20,307 14,905 25,906 47,396

Jun- 08 21,888 18,150 28,529 46,538

Jun- 09 23,118 19,124 30,553 51,448

Jun-10 22,924 15,850 28,797 49,199

Jun-11 24,650 16,939 27,666 48,299 Gold Coast

TNQ


Source : IVS



Other Europe Inbound visitors



• The Sunshine Coast has a fairly stable share of this market and numbers are holding up OK :-

• Tropical North Queensland has the highest share, here the warmer climate, the reef, islands and rainforests have a strong appeal, but numbers have been falling thanks to the poor weather and the global uncertainty.

SUNSHINE COAST

GOLD COAST

WHIT-SUNDAYS

TROPICAL NORTH

QLD


Jun- 07 48,990 53,932 62,289 132,845

Jun- 08 53,447 60,592 67,250 134,188

Jun- 09 53,022 58,794 66,295 132,477

Jun-10 52,298 65,780 66,197 127,875

Jun-11 50,774 56,291 59,521 120,865 Gold Coast

TNQ


Source : IVS



Asia Inbound visitors



• The Sunshine Coast wins a small number of Asian visitors, and the visitation level has been stable for years :-

• The Gold Coast and Tropical North Queensland have a far higher number of Asian visitors, although numbers for the Gold Coast have been trending down. Packaging has assisted the development of this market as well as catering to their needs.

SUNSHINE COAST

GOLD COAST

WHIT-SUNDAYS

TROPICAL NORTH

QLD


Jun- 07 17,214 387,261 15,903 304,752

Jun- 08 20,817 402,916 14,437 294,243

Jun- 09 19,022 351,702 13,541 206,584

Jun-10 19,469 383,845 14,955 194,880

Jun-11 14,791 355,090 15,151 218,586

Gold Coast

TNQSunshine Coast Whitsundays

Source : IVS



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional International markets

• The Southern Sub-region has been softening in the last three years. The Hinterland has been increasing visitors over the last 10 years. The Central Sub-region has been trending down since 2008.

• The Northern Sub-region has been trending up

• Cooloola as well has been trending up as well although the global uncertainty has impacted in the last few quarters.

Northern Cooloola

Visitors%

p.a.Visitors

% p.a.

137,415 12.7 40,538 40.2

128,894 -6.2 51,638 27.4

134,980 4.7 49,299 -4.5

142,822 5.8 57,186 16.0

140,471 -1.6 46,050 -19.5

Source : IVS

Southern Hinterland Central

Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a.

Jun- 07 30,780 45.9 14,549 30.6 91,363 30.4

Jun- 08 38,281 24.4 19,464 33.8 75,102 -17.8

Jun- 09 33,118 -13.5 21,359 9.7 80,252 6.9

Jun-10 29,612 -10.6 25,788 20.7 58,811 -26.7

Jun-11 27,543 -7.0 21,252 -17.6 55,630 -5.4

Northern

Central

Southern

Cooloola

Hinterland



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (NZ)

• The Northern Sub-region is softening a little.

• The Southern Sub-region is still soft.

• The real loss has been with the Central Sub-region.



Jun- 07 17,987 n.a. 53,160 30,851 n.a.

Jun- 08 18,887 n.a. 38,562 29,980 n.a.

Jun- 09 14,554 n.a. 40,564 23,565 n.a.

Jun-10 14,286 n.a. 33,198 31,131 n.a.

Jun-11 12,843 n.a. 30,338 29,805 n.a.

Source :IVS

n.a. Sample too small to document

Northern

Central

Southern



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (UK)

• The Northern Sub-region is steady.

• The Central Sub-region is soft.

• Cooloola is also softening.



Jun- 07 n.a. n.a. 12,161 38,208 10,943

Jun- 08 n.a. n.a. 11,876 32,930 16,277

Jun- 09 n.a. n.a. 14,450 37,028 15,550

Jun-10 n.a. n.a. 9,569 35,021 22,544

Jun-11 n.a. n.a. 7,703 35,357 15,265

Source :IVS

Northern

Central

Cooloola



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (Germany)

• The Northern Sub-region is trending up.

• Cooloola is growing as the appeal of Fraser Island grows.



Jun- 07 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11,725 5,541

Jun- 08 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11,968 8,659

Jun- 09 n.a. n.a. n.a. 12,398 8,861

Jun-10 n.a. n.a. n.a. 15,528 7,468

Jun-11 n.a. n.a. n.a. 14,773 8,352

Source :IVS

Northern

Cooloola



Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (Other Europe)

• The Northern Sub-region is growing strongly, with visitors from other parts of Europe are at near record levels.

• Cooloola is growing as the appeal of Fraser Island grows.

• Asian sample is too small to show sub-regional results.



Jun- 07 n.a. n.a. n.a. 31,113 11,818

Jun- 08 n.a. n.a. n.a. 32,331 13,709

Jun- 09 n.a. n.a. n.a. 34,042 12,767

Jun-10 n.a. n.a. n.a. 32,521 15,043

Jun-11 n.a. n.a. n.a. 34,452 13,423

Source :IVS

Northern

Cooloola



Base Trends Assembled

Demand Drivers mathematically determined

Forecasts of economic drivers sourced

EMDA Composite Index of Drivers Mathematically derived

Forecasts of the Sunshine Coast Inbound, Overnight Domestic and

Accommodation Sector

• The diagram right outlines the model development process.

• Excludes the impact of major new changes to the Sunshine Coast product.

• This update - Visitor numbers (International and Domestic Overnight)

Model Update Process - SunMo

Section 6 Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast



• The Global Financial uncertainty is still impacting on the Australian economy, but the worst is behind us and GDP and Household Spending is growing again.

• Both Australian GDP and Household Spending are expected to continue to recover. Sept. 11 forecasts are slightly weaker than the June 11 forecasts thanks to a bigger impact of the slowing world economy.

Source : ABS / EMDA

F F

Economic Outlook



Source : IVS/NVS / EMDA

Sunshine Coast Visitor Forecasts

Inbound (RHS)

Domestic (LHS)

F

Inbound Drivers (R2 = 0.87)NZ GDP, UK GDP, TFC Outlook, $A exchange Rate

Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.85)Aus. GDP, QLD, NSW, Vic Private Consumption., RMR Preference

• With Household spending growth gathering pace over 2012, the outlook is better in terms of visitor numbers. Inbound growth tempered by the high Australian dollar and also the short term economic problems in Europe.

• In 2012, both domestic overnight (+0.3%) and inbound (+8.9%) are expected to continue to grow.

Domestic Overnight

Inbound

(‘000) % p.a. (‘000) % p.a.

Jun-08 2,936,000 -0.4 282,415 -3.1

Jun-09 2,589,000 -11.8 275,897 -2.3

Jun-10 2,439,000 -5.8 280,396 1.6

Jun-11 2,783,000 14.1 259,898 -7.3

Jun-12 2,791,000 0.3 283,000 8.9

Jun-13 2,850,000 2.1 291,000 2.9

Jun-14 2,942,000 3.2 299,000 2.7

Jun-15 3,043,000 3.4 306,000 2.4


Key Point Summary

• The Australian economy continues to grow, but growth has slowed thanks to an erosion in confidence caused by the US and European debt concerns. The economic growth has slowed the most in NSW.

• This slowing has meant the domestic overnight market is fairly flat and holiday spending is well down as holidaymakers tighten their belts.

• Against this weak domestic back drop Sunshine Coast tourism has performed very well :-• Domestic overnight visitors are up 14.1%.• Domestic visitor nights are up 0.5%.• Share of Queensland spending has improved again and is at record levels.• Preference to holiday on the Sunshine Coast maybe stabilising and Preference amongst the highest

income earners (who are also the biggest spenders) is growing.

• The International market to Aus. and Qld. has been weak with spending and visitation soft, mainly due to the renewed concerns about the global financial system and the high Australian dollar.

• Against this weak International market, the Sunshine Coast is gaining in share of spending amongst inbound and is at equal record levels.

• In terms of the outlook, with spending growth gathering pace over 2012, the outlook is better for visitor numbers to the Coast, both domestically and internationally.

Section 7 : Summary


Disclaimer

While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the data in this report, EMDA has not audited the data sources and therefore does not accept any responsibility in relation to financial and/or decisions based on this information.

Ownership of all Intellectual Property (modelling methods, EMDA Positioning Maps resides with EMDA).


september 11 quarterly report (final)

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