Seminar on Curbing Food Waste Seminar on Curbing Food Waste European Parliament, BrusselsEuropean Parliament, Brussels

Saving Water from Field to Fork

October 28, 2010October 28, 2010

Jan Lundqvist, professorChair, Scientific Programme Committee

World Water Week in Stockholmwww.siwi.org

IssuesIssues

• Food production historically highFood production historically high

• So is undernourishment & overeatingSo is undernourishment & overeating

• Water for our daily bread & butterWater for our daily bread & butter

• Producing more or wasting less? Producing more or wasting less?

• Who cares? Who cares?

Changes in Food Supply, 1961 – 2005

Between 2007 – 2008, world food supply increased by 5% (a new record)

Parallel with this, the number of undernourished increased by 150 million

Energy intakerequirement:1,800 – 2,200 kcal/pers, day

Dramatic Jump in Undernourishment while Production increased

Demographic and GDP Trends

Population Urban GDP (billion) (billion) ($ billion; 2005 ppp)

1800: (T. R. Malthus) < 1 913 (1820)

1900: 1.65

1950: just after WW2 2.5 7,006

2000: 6 3 56,593 (2005)

2050: ~ 9 ~ 6.5 193,318*)

*) trend projection

Increase: 2000 – 2050 50% 125% 400%

Source: GDP trend projection: Hillebrand, E., 2009.

Socio-economic Trendsand Food and Water in China

Source: Junguo Liu & Hub Savenije

Water footprintFood supply in China, 1961 - 2005

Another 2-3 billion in a generation- with dreams - want/demand/right to sense development

Climate change may reduce potential yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030 (Lobell et al. 2008 in Science)

Perspectives on the Future

”One Country’s Table Scraps, Another Country’s Meal”, NYT, May 18, 2008

112 pounds of food wastage per month for a family of four

Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century (Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)

Food production to increase by 70% by 2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009. Similar message in World Bank (2008), Norman Borlaug (2002), etc.

Alternative/complementary Option Sanctioned discourse

Better care of agr. produce;storage, transport & marketing- Curb food losses

Attention to use & food intake- Reduce food waste

Food Security …” … …exists when all people, at all times, have physical and exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient , safe and nutritiouseconomic access to sufficient , safe and nutritiousfood to meet their dietary needs and food preferencesfood to meet their dietary needs and food preferencesfor an active and healthy lifefor an active and healthy life” Rome Declaration (FAO, 1996)

- How much is ”sufficient”? 1,800 – 2,200 kcal/person, day on average

- What to do when preferences deviate from ”sufficient”?

UndernourishmentUndernourishment & overeating

1,400 million overweight,1,400 million overweight, 400 million obese 400 million obese – – numbers increasingnumbers increasing

1,000 million undernourished 1,000 million undernourished - numbers increasing?- numbers increasing?

(Source: Economist, Dec. 13, 2003; S. Brichieri-Colombi, WWW 2006)

• Food production: The amount in the field

• Food supply: The amount available on the market; production minus losses before market, conversion

• Food demand: The amount bought/procured by households, public institutions and other social entities

• Food consumption: the intake of food, i.e. the amount of food eaten

• Food absorption: the uptake of energy & nutrients in human body

Considerable losses, conversions and wastage along the food chain

What Food for What What Food for What Food/Nutrition Security?Food/Nutrition Security?

Much Food does not reach Market

Losses & Waste at a high Cost

MonetaryUS – estimated US $100 billion annuallyUK – calculated £12+ billion annually of household waste (retail value) Water - all food produced consumes water; food waste = misuse of water, energy, etc.

Green house gas emission – from production throughout the supply chain, incl disposal

Income and security

Given:

- Scarcity and competition for natural resources- High energy input agriculture is not replicable- Environmental implications of food production- Overeating >>undernourishment

What is a sensible strategy for food security?

and

Who cares and who pushes the new agenda?

Water bubbles are the real thing:

“…we have enjoyed a series of water ‘bubbles’ to support economic growth over the past 50 years or so….. We are now on the verge of water bankruptcy in many places with no way of paying the debt back”.

World Economic Forum, January 2009

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

BEIRA: monthly rainfall 1908 to 2009

1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 19181919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 19291930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 19401941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 19511952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 19621963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 19731974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19841985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 19951996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: JeanMarc Faures, FAO

Climate: Significant Uncertainty and RiskVariability of rainfall – Beira, 1908 to 2009

The 7 lean and the 7 fat years – Zimbabwe, 1910 - 2000

“We know exactly what needs to be done, but we do not know how to be re-elected once we have done what

needs to be done”

EU politician Jean Claude Juncker

Political will & political skill adequate?

What about social acceptance?

Another Perception and Policy a Generation or two ago

WRAP study (UK): HHs throw away about 25% of the food they have bought, 60% of which is ”perfectly fit for consumption”

Swedish school children throw away more of the food they like

Where isWhere is

the road ahead?the road ahead?

Water productivity improvements?Reduce post-harvest losses?Better seeds, fertilizers?Biotechnologies?

Trade?Trade?Contract farming?Contract farming?Diet “adjustments”?Diet “adjustments”?Resource prudent lifestyle?Resource prudent lifestyle?

Photo: J. Lundqvist