semiconductor market update
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright 2010 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
Soo Kyoum Kim
Program Director
Semiconductors
Semiconductor Market Update
October 13, 2010
© 2010 IDC
Agenda
Semiconductor Market Forecast
Memory Market Forecast
PC Semiconductor Market Forecast
Mobile Phone Semiconductor Market Forecast
DTV Semiconductor Market Forecast
Takeaway Points
© 2010 IDC 3
State of the Semiconductor Market: Full Recovery to Soft Landing Market enjoyed strong demand
recovery from BRIC, global
stimulus, inventory replenishment
in 1H’10 but Inventory buffering
demand in supply chain in 2H’10
Continuing Investment will start to
work after 3Q10, impacting market
balance into 2011
Q1’10 was actual growth peak of
cycle (Y-O-Y basis) and order rates
began to normalize after Q2.
Expecting 21% revenue growth
Only gradual enterprise cycle
expected this year, accelerates in
2011
Key growth coming from PC,
storage, server, smartphones, and
automotive segments
Semiconductor Quarterly Revenue Growth Q192-Q410-Y/Y Change
Semiconductor Annual Revenue Growth-Y/Y Change
© 2010 IDC 4
Semiconductor Market Forecast
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Semi Market June'10 Oct'10
$B
Source: IDC WW Semiconductor Applications Forecaster Preliminary, October 2010
© 2010 IDC 5
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010 2011
By IC Type
Semi. Growth Forecast by Key Factor
Source: IDC WW Semiconductor Applications Forecaster Preliminary , October 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010 2011
By Industry
© 2010 IDC 66
Semi. Forecast by Industry in 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Growth Rates (YoY,%)
Computing
Consumer
Wireless
Wired AutomotiveIndustrial
Military & Aero
Reven
ue S
hare
(%
)
Source: IDC WW Semiconductor Applications Forecaster, Preliminary October 2010
© 2010 IDC 7
Memory Market Trends
DRAM demand becomes soft. PC OEM
controls inventory but supply chain is
over reactionary.
Graphic and Smartphone demands
surges ; 1Gb GD5, 1Gb~2Gb Mobile
DRAM
Samsung leading technology in 4x nm
race. 3x DRAM will hit bit supply in ‘11
2Gb bit crossover will come by E’10, will
drive price competition in ‘11
Revenue $34M(‘11) $40M(‘10)
Growth - 15% + 77 %
ASP Change - 45% +16%
PC Growth +12.8% + 16.9%
Source: IDC , September 2010
NAND
Revenue $25M $19M
Growth + 34% + 47 %
ASP Change - 32% - 13%
Mobile Growth +7% + 13%
Mobile GB/system (Smart Phone)
5.8GB(7.7G) 2.8G(3.5G)
Growth +107%(+120%) +75%(+82%)
DRAM
Supply chain has no inventory, keeping
price sensitive
Smartphone and Media Tablet leads
demand with 32Gb NAND for storage.
Samsung/Micron leading technology in
2x nm race.
3 bit NAND(TLC) in low priority (13% -
19% bit share) endangering future of SSD.
© 2010 IDC
Demand Drivers for Memory
DRAM NAND
Notes : Bit share
(PC)
Source: IDC , September 2010
PC
© 2010 IDC
Memory Market Forecast
$B
Source: IDC , September 2010
© 2010 IDC
PC Semiconductor Market Trends
Current forecast is for WW PC semiconductor revenue growth of 35.9% in 2010 and 7.7% growth in 2011.
However, Intel and AMD warnings both point to less than expected demand, so next forecast will likely bring forecast down approximately 5-6%.
PC supply chain has become very reactive.
OEMs and ODMs aggressively fill inventories when demand is assured (2Q10) and aggressively clear inventories when demand wavers
Demand wavered in July and August, so IDC expects pull back in 3Q10, possibly extending into 4Q10.
Media tablets growth has eaten into netbook growth by a small amount. Subsiding netbook system unit growth and anemic semiconductor content means little ability to drive PC semiconductor growth.
In 1Q10 and 2Q10, discrete GPU attach rate grew notably, but long-term prospect is that integrated graphics will reduce discrete GPU attach rate.
© 2010 IDC
WW Mobile PC Components vs Systems: A Reactive Supply Chain Cuts Back Quickly
MUSignificant overhang of components in a quarter suggests
cutbacks on those components in the following quarter.
© 2010 IDC
Worldwide PC Chip Revenue Forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mobile Mininotebook/Netbook Desktop x86 Server
$B Revenue to rise
35.9% this year
Mobile PCs continue to drive PC chip revenue
– 2009: 42% of total
– 2014: 57% of total
For netbooks, subsiding system unit growth and anemic semiconductor content means little ability to drive PC semiconductor growth
Processors, connectivity, and NAND (for SSDs) are long-term growth areas
CAGR = 11.8%
Source: IDC , September 2010
© 2010 IDC 13
Mobile Phone Semi. Market Trends
Market growth will become slower at single digit in next 5 years after 10%
recovery of this year Competition getting tougher and top 5 vendors(Qualcomm, TI, ST-E, Mediatek, Inf.)
share reduced to 60% in 1H10 from >70% of last year.
Smartphone increasing share to >15% of the market at 14% of CAGR
Mobile Phone value chain has evolved : Design companies are getting squeezed out by chipset suppliers and EMS providers,
and are less critical to process
Global EMS providers are offering more cost competitive design and manufacturing
solutions
Chipset suppliers are differentiating themselves by offering a full complement of
hardware and software and testing solutions to improve time to market and reduce
overall development costs.
Baseband and RF for 2G and 2.5G has become commoditized, so global
chipset providers are:• Shifting to leading-edge technologies (3.5G, 4G)
• Focusing on connectivity (WiFi, FM, BT, mobile TV, GPS, etc.) and
graphic/applications processing (MMCPs, APs) to garner higher margins and
differentiate their solutions
© 2010 IDC
Mobile Semiconductor Market Forecast
Baseband and RF Market
CAGR -1%
CAGR 6%
CAGRBase
bandRF
Apps
Proces
s/
MMCP
Memor
y
Connec
tivityImage Other Total
2005-09 1.40% 6.30% 34.30% -2.90% 36.20% 19.80% 6.80% 6.50%
2010-14 -2.10% 5.20% 10.30% -1.40% 11.90% 6.00% 3.40% 3.20%
14
Mobile Semiconductor Market by BOM$B $B
Source: IDC, June 2010
© 2010 IDC 1515
Smartphone Semiconductor Market Forecast: CAGR 14%
Source: IDC, June 2010
In 2009 smartphones accounted for 15% of total volume shipments and generated
nearly 25% of the total semiconductor revenues of the market
15
© 2010 IDC 16
DTV Semiconductor Market Trends
DTV semi. Market will grow strong 21% to $9.1B after unexpected 15% of
last year But it will cool down at a single digit growth by 2014.
Surprisingly strong demand throughout the recession, driven by digital transition in the
US and Europe, the displacement of CRTs by LCDs and improved performance of LCD
panel technology over the past 2 years
DTV unit shipment growth(10% CAGR for ‘9-’14) will outpace its semi. growth,
showing strong chip ASP erosion
3-D is being currently hyped but more important market trends are
increasing importance of connectivity, video from the Internet
Expect significant user interface changes will impact the market in 2011
Market is highly cost competitive for systems and ICs as OEMs compete with store
brands and e-shopping mall
Improved graphics for user interfaces will also spur demand for more tuners within
DTVs to support multiple picture-in-picture and live thumbnail previews and graphic
interfaces
The market places a premium on features and technology advancements,
this will drive further consolidation among SOC suppliers to in order to
scale R&D investments
16
© 2010 IDC
DTV Semi. Unit & Revenue Forecast
17
Worldwide DTV Semiconductor (Mu) Worldwide DTV Semiconductor ($M)
2009-14 CAGR
Total Units 7.8% SOC & Discrete Image Processor Units 9.0%
Total Revenues 5.4% SOC & Discrete Image Processor Revenues 4.7%
17
Source: IDC, June 2010
© 2010 IDC 18
Key Takeaways
Semiconductor market in full recovery this year but
expects soft landing in 2011
Memory market facing weak correction next year but
growth dynamics will continue into 2012.
PC semiconductor market benefiting from very reactive
supply chain this year but slow down in 2011
Smartphone semiconductor revenue growing at solid 14%
of CAGR, much higher than overall mobile.
DTV semiconductor market returning to single digit growth
next year for strong cost competition of both system and
IC levels.
