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SEMI Outlook – Market Briefing Jerome Boutant Europe Sales manager June 17 th , 2015

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  • SEMI Outlook Market Briefing

    Jerome Boutant Europe Sales manager

    June 17th , 2015

  • Agenda

    High-level Overview

    Fab Investment Trends Semiconductor Equipment Market

    Semiconductor Materials Market

    Summary

  • Overview

  • Evolution of Chip Demand

  • The Electronics Ecosystem

    Materials

    Semiconductor Equipment

    Semiconductors

    Electronic End Equipment

    Source: SEMI, and McClean Report 2015, IC Insights

    $1,488B

    2014

    $44B

    $38B

    $353B

    2015

    $42B

    $46B

    $378B

    $1,584B

    SEMI membership

  • Maturing Industry

    Source: Presented by Scott McGregor, Broadcom, at SEMI ISS 2015

  • 2015 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts

    3.4%

    3.6%

    4.0%

    4.6%

    5.0%

    5.1%

    5.9%

    7.0%

    8.0%

    8.0%

    0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

    WSTS (Jun 15)

    IDC (Jan 15)

    Gartner (Apr 15)

    Henderson Ventures (Apr 15)

    JPMorgan (Jan 15; 4% to 6%)

    Cowan LRA (Jun 15)

    VLSI (May 15; IC only)

    IC Insights (Jan 15)

    Semico Research (May 15)

    Semiconductor Intelligence (May 15)

    Source: Compiled by SEMI

    Chart1

    0.034

    0.036

    0.04

    0.046

    0.05

    0.051

    0.059

    0.07

    0.08

    0.08

    Sheet1

    WSTS (Jun 15)IDC (Jan 15)Gartner (Apr 15)Henderson Ventures (Apr 15)JPMorgan (Jan 15; 4% to 6%)Cowan LRA (Jun 15)VLSI (May 15; IC only)IC Insights (Jan 15)Semico Research (May 15)Semiconductor Intelligence (May 15)

    3.40%3.60%4.00%4.60%5.00%5.10%5.90%7.00%8.00%8%

  • Fab Trends

  • March 20, 2015 Christian G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research Group, San Jose 9

    Capacity chart does not include LED, EPI, Discrete.

  • Fab Equipment Spending- Driven by Foundry and Memory

    Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast March 2015

  • Total Fab Capex by Region- Spending on Fab Construction and Equipping

    Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast

    Total fab capex to increase 3% to 4% in 2015 to reach ~$42B

    36 fab constructions being tracked globally

    Equipment spend total: $17B for Memory $14B for Foundry

  • Foundries- Ramping capacity in 2015 & 2016

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016FFoundry only- 200mm 2.12 2.19 2.27 2.29 2.28 2.37 2.43

    1.952.002.052.102.152.202.252.302.352.402.452.50

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F

    Inst

    alle

    d Ca

    pacit

    y (M

    illio

    ns w

    pm)

    Installed 200mm Foundry Capacity

    Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast

  • Equipment Market

  • SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio

    $600$800

    $1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800

    Mar

    -13

    Apr-1

    3

    May

    -13

    Jun-

    13

    Jul-1

    3

    Aug-

    13

    Sep-

    13

    Oct-1

    3

    Nov-

    13

    Dec-

    13

    Jan-

    14

    Feb-

    14

    Mar

    -14

    Apr-1

    4

    May

    -14

    Jun-

    14

    Jul-1

    4

    Aug-

    14

    Sep-

    14

    Oct-1

    4

    Nov-

    14

    Dec-

    14

    Jan-

    15

    Feb-

    15

    Mar

    -15(

    f)

    Apr-1

    5(p)U

    S$ M

    illio

    ns

    North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)

    Bookings Billings

    0.900.951.001.051.101.15

    Mar

    -13

    Apr-1

    3M

    ay-1

    3Ju

    n-13

    Jul-1

    3Au

    g-13

    Sep-

    13Oc

    t-13

    Nov-

    13De

    c-13

    Jan-

    14Fe

    b-14

    Mar

    -14

    Apr-1

    4M

    ay-1

    4Ju

    n-14

    Jul-1

    4Au

    g-14

    Sep-

    14Oc

    t-14

    Nov-

    14De

    c-14

    Jan-

    15Fe

    b-15

    Mar

    -15(

    f)Ap

    r-15(

    p)

    Book

    -to-B

    ill R

    atio

    Source: SEMI May 2015

    Chart1

    1103.3991

    1173.91086.3

    1321.31223.4

    1334.21213.7

    1207.21204

    1063.91081.9

    992.81020.9

    1124.51071

    12381113.9

    1380.81349.7

    1280.31233.2

    1295.41288.3

    1297.71225.5

    14431403.2

    14071407.8

    14551327.5

    1417.11319.1

    1346.11293.4

    1186.21256.5

    1102.31184.2

    1216.81189.4

    1381.51395.9

    1325.61279.1

    1313.71280.1

    1392.71265.6

    1572.21510.3

    Bookings

    Billings

    US$ Millions

    North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)

    Sheet1

    Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14May-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14Jan-15Feb-15Mar-15(f)Apr-15(p)

    Bookings995.61105.21171.31181.91016.8831.6775.1776.7826.5739760.6777.3757.3723.5722.3706.9731.8778.8871923.31181.11226.11316.41378.81581.61559.61609.11587.41510.81349.81373.11329.11235.7986.41024.11003.4998.81015.310381007.31022.3984.11093.91093.21142.71225.91293.21385.31604.416191782.31734.61729.71639.21468.61426.51497.21445.81398.11419.61567.51641.91607.61406.31371.212351176.91130.71156.311411205.41165.61090.31029.3934.2889866.8649.9839.7783.8579.1277.2258.4245.6249287.8351.7571.8614.5758.9756.3791.8912.71178.41251.21332.61442.515251729.81836.61816.11651.21593.71512.61580151415961581$1,602.40$1,623.001540.41298.21162.4926.5$926.80$977.201102.91187.51336.9$1,445.701602.81613.7$1,424.30$1,234.601092.9912.8742.8718.6927.410761073.51103.3$1,173.90$1,321.301334.21207.21063.9992.81124.51238$1,380.80$1,280.301295.41297.7144314071455$1,417.10$1,346.10$1,186.20$1,102.30$1,216.80$1,381.50$1,325.601313.71392.71572.2

    Billings814.6869.6927.1969.1994.81044.6999.9976.4878.3784.4777.7857.1840.4805.4776.5785.9792.3811.1866.5876.4962.91033.711441268.113941412.71503.41526.91497.81441.21430.61339.41317.31258.61330.61272.51239.212131152.21078.21055.51088.21145.91179.71223.61259.41283.31338.71441.41452.61557.41637.91742.81672.81562.91486.11482.3144814231436.41594.71670.21768.11685.81682.31557.41477.51383.21361.71279.31310.81344.91337.313131159.81077.21064.5927.3871.4806.8672.4584.2525.5438.3385.7392.6440.5538580648.4694.1744.2850.1957.61016.21100.81279.41344.81466.21495.81554.61610.91623.31567.31760.11786.918391657.5$1,635.40$1,669.201640.21521.21457.71313.5$1,258.30$1,176.7013001239.91322.8$1,287.601458.71539.3$1,535.70$1,442.801331.51164.4985.5910.11006.1968974.7991$1,086.30$1,223.401213.712041081.91020.910711113.9$1,349.70$1,233.201288.31225.51403.21407.81327.5$1,319.10$1,293.40$1,256.50$1,184.20$1,189.40$1,395.90$1,279.101280.11265.61510.3

    To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

    Chart1

    1.11

    1.08

    1.08

    1.1

    1

    0.98

    0.97

    1.05

    1.11

    1.02

    1.04

    1.01

    1.06

    1.03

    1

    1.1

    1.07

    1.04

    0.94

    0.93

    1.02

    0.99

    1.04

    1.03

    1.1

    1.04

    Category 1

    Book-to-Bill Ratio

    Sheet1

    Column1May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14May-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14Jan-15Feb-15Mar-15(f)Apr-15(p)

    Category 11.271.161.020.80.780.80.940.940.980.910.90.90.930.90.920.951.011.051.231.191.151.091.131.11.071.041.010.940.960.990.940.780.770.780.810.840.90.930.970.90.950.930.930.971.011.031.111.111.141.060.990.980.940.961.0110.980.990.980.980.910.830.820.790.80.820.850.890.920.870.820.780.810.830.810.70.960.970.860.470.490.560.650.730.81.061.061.171.031.061.071.231.231.211.131.131.181.231.171.040.980.970.90.850.870.950.980.970.940.850.80.710.740.830.850.961.011.121.11.050.930.860.840.780.750.790.921.111.11.111.081.081.110.980.971.051.111.021.041.011.061.0311.11.071.040.940.931.020.991.041.031.11.04

    To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

  • Capital Equipment Market- Moderated cycles?

    $37 $33

    $40 $43

    $30

    $16

    $40 $44

    $37

    $32

    $38 $41

    -50%

    -25%

    0%

    25%

    50%

    75%

    100%

    125%

    15