seismic observation

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RISK AND SITUATION UPDATE OF EACH VOLCANO UNDER ALERT LEVEL III

By

Dr. Surono

CENTER FORVOLCANOLOGY ANDGEOLOGICALHAZARDMITIGATION

GEOLOGICAL AGENCYMINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES, INDONESIA

INTRODUCTION

Indonesia lies between 3 active major tectonic plates: Eurasia, Pacific, and Australia and severalsmaller plates. Subduction along the margins of the tectonic plates results in Indonesia’s 127active volcanoes and formed an archipelago of 17,500 islands that straddles the western reaches ofthe hyperactive Ring of Fire. With a dense population of 250 million, whenever volcanic eruptions,the risk is high, since nowhere else do so many live so close to many active volcanoes. On Java,120 million peoples live in the shadow of more than 30 volcanoes, a proximity that has proved fatalto more than 140,000 in the past 500 years.

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CVGHM

Indonesia has greatest population at risk on the ground: 3.3 M

Volcanic hazard areas in Indonesia typically have fertile land, an abundant amount of water, and beautiful scenery. Consequently, people are attracted to live and conduct activities in volcanic hazard areas.

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Eruption in 2007-2011 with large evacuations

Kelud eruption, November 2007, about 15,000 refugees evacuated. (No casualties).

Sinabung eruption, August 2010, about 30,000 refugees.(No casualties)

Merapi eruption, October-November 2010, about 1 million refugees due to eruption, but about 400,000 were taken care by the government with 367 casualties.

Lokon eruption, 14 July 2011, there were about 6,000 peoples evacuated (No casualties).

OBSERVATION/RESEARCH

Strategy Of Volcanic Hazard Mitigation

VOLCANIC HAZARD MAPPING

MONITORING EARLY WARNING

SOCIALIZATION/DISSEMINATION

QUICK RESPONSE TEAM

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Volcano Observatory

Integrated methods : seismology, geodesy, geophysics, geochemical, remote sensing, etc.

112.29 112.295 112.3 112.305 112.31 112.315 112.32 112.325 112.33

-7.97

-7.965

-7.96

-7.955

-7.95

-7.9450 2 km

St. UMBUK

St. LIRANG

St. SUMBING

St. KAWAH

St. KELUT

POS PGA KELUD

Volcano Monitoring

VOLCANO MONITORING SYSTEM

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Providing Volcanic Hazard Map

Level IAKTIFNORMAL

Level IIWASPADA

Level IIISIAGA

Level IV AWAS

Volcanic activity in normal state

Volcanic activityabove its normal state

The volcano starts to erupt, showing some minor eruptions and may lead to the main eruption

Limited activitieson

Volcanic Hazard Zone II, III

No activities onVolcanic Hazard Zone II, III

EvacuationVolcanic Hazard Zone II, III

The activity shows some indications to erupt

Local Government and Community Responseon Volcanic Activity

Early Warning System

Volcanic Hazard Zone Map

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NO GUNUNGAPI STATUS TERHITUNG TANGGAL

1 Soputan (Prov. Sulawesi Utara) Waspada - Siaga 19 April 20132 Karangetang (Provi.Sulawesi Utara) Waspada - Siaga 8 Agustus 20113 Lokon (Prov. Sulawesi Utara) Awas - Siaga 24 Juli 20114 Ijen (Prov. Jawa Timur) Waspada - Siaga 24 Juli 20125 Papandayan (Prov. Jawa Barat) Waspada - Siaga 31 Januari 20126 Rokatenda (Prov. NTT) Waspada - Siaga 13 Oktober 20127 Sangeang api (Prov. NTB) Waspada - Siaga 20 Mei 20138 Gamkonora (Prov. Maluku Utara) Waspada - Siaga 27 Mei 20139 Dieng (Prov. Jawa Tengah) Siaga - Waspada 8 Mei 2013

10 Semeru (Prov. Jawa Timur) Siaga - Waspada 27 Mei 201211 Ile Lewotolok (Prov. NTT) Siaga - Waspada 25 Januari 201212 Gamalama (Prov. Maluku Utara) Siaga – Waspada 24 Januari 201213 Ibu (Provinsi Maluku Utara ) Siaga – Waspada 8 September 201114 Marapi (Prov. Sumatera Barat) Normal – Waspada 3 Agustus 201115 Sinabung (Prov. Sumut) Siaga – Waspada 7 Oktober 201016 Talang (Prov. Sumbar) Siaga – Waspada 17 April 201017 Kerinci (Prov. Jambi) Normal – Waspada 9 September 200718 Dukono (Prov. Maluku Utara) Siaga – Waspada 13 Juni 200819 Bromo (Prov. Jawa Tengah) Normal – Waspada 3 Oktober 201220 Raung (Prov. Jawa Timur) Siaga – Waspada 5 April 201321 Seulawah Agam (Prov. Aceh) Normal - Waspada 3 Januari 2013

VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IN INDONESIA UP TO 28 MAY 2013

ROKATENDA Level III since 13th October 2012

A stratovolcano located on the small island of Palue Island, East Nusa Tenggara. The volcano has been dormant since 1985

The 2012 – 2013 Rokatenda activity charactized by lava dome growth, incandescent avalanches, pyroclastic flows, ash plumes that rose as high as 4 km above the dome, and ejected material deposited 3 km away.

The whole island was affected by ashfall, which was an average of 2 cm thick on some areas.

Visual Observation

Lava dome was observed with estimation of volume about 5.1 million cubic meter.

The 2nd February 2013 eruption was destroyed the south portion of lava dome.

Pyroclastic flows were observed, about 400 – 2000 meter, to the southern flank

Last eruption occurred in 3rd May 2013, generated ash plume that rose 500 meter and produced pyroclastic flow, about 2 km, to the southern flank.

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eruption quake

Avalanche quake

VB

VA

TECTONIC

Hybrid

Seismicity

January 2012 – May 2013

Earthquakes that associated with the eruption and lava dome avalanches were still recorded.

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Conclusion and Recommendation

• Pyroclastic flows and lava avalanches are still frequenly observed

• Earthquakes that associated with the eruption and lava dome avalanches were still recorded. Continous tremor still occur until May 2013

• Visitors and residents were prohibited from approaching the crater within a 3-km-radius

• only about 30% of the Palue island is safe from eruptionthreats, although still potentially devastated by volcanic ash, it’s depend on wind direction

KARANGETANG

A volcanic island locating in north part of North Sulawesi Province, exactly on Siau Island about 146 km from Manado.

KARANGETANG

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Visual Observation• Lava avalanches and pyroclastic flows are still frequenly observed,

about 2 km, to the southeastern flanks (Keting, Kahetang, and Batuawang Rivers).

• Plumes were observed from the main crater (K1) with 150 m high and 350 m from the second crater (K2)

Seismic Observation

Earthquakes that associated with the lava avalanches and lava dome growing were still recorded.

North crater South crater

K.II

K.IVK.I

K.V, K.III

It has 5 craters in the summit, two of them is the active point of todays eruption (North and South crater).

The last eruption activity of Mt. Karangetang happened in March 2011 .

Eruption characteristic is in form of explosive eruption strombolian and vulcanian type and also the growth of lava dome which is often followed by pyroclastic avalanches.

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Eruption type of Karangetang volcano:

• Short repose period (months). Eruption series preceded by small ash explosion, followed by lava flow and lava avalanches that occurred couple days to several months.

• Some of the eruption series didnot preceded by explosion one.

• Lava accumulated at the summit often produced pyroclastic avalanches from it edges due to gravitational force and slope instability. Secondary explosion also accurred during lava avalanches travel to the lower slope.

• Some of the eruptions also trigerred directly by local tectonic activity.

Sketch of Karangetang eruption type (Kristianto, 2006)

Andesite‐basaltic lava accumulation

Collapse of lava edge

Pyroclastic avalanches

Lava Flow

Lava Avalanches

Pyroclastic Flow

Lahar

The danger of Mt. Karangetang is generally caused by pyroclastic flow, lava avalanches from lava dome and lava secondary danger.

The risk is higher because Volcanic Island is only approximately 4 Km between coastal boundary and central eruption, which consists of many settlements.

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SEISMIC DATA

January – May 2013Hybrid

Tremor Amplitude

Avalanches quake

Multiphase

VB

VA

Tectonic

Karangetang volcano hazard map

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• Lava avalanches and pyroclastic flows are still frequently occured and be observed, reach until 2 – 3.5 km from the summit

• Earthquakes that associated with the lava avalanches were still recorded

• People and tourist not climb to the summit more than 500 m asl.

• People in Mini Village in west part (Beha Barat River) and Kopi Village in south part (Keting and Kahetang River) to be more alert towards the danger of pyroclastic and lava avalanches which possibly happens every time and Lahar during rainy season

• People living around Batu Awang River, Kahetang, Keting, Batang, Beha Timur, Pangi and Nanitu to be alert towards the secondary danger such as lava flow.

SOPUTAN

• Soputan is a strato volcano located in Minahasa regency, North Sulawesi

• Level III since 19th April 2013 based on an increase seismic activity, VA and VB events

• The eruption series occured from several weeks to months. Eruption produced ash, lava flow, lava avalanches and pyroclastic flow.

• The eruption in July 2011 was the biggest one during last 10 years, produced 6 km high of eruption column and 4 km of pyroclastic flow. Sam Ratulangi International Airport was closed for a full day.

• Last eruption of Soputan volcano was on 26 August and September 2012, produced lava flow around the summit and 1000-1500 ash column.

Level III since 19th April 2013

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Visual Observation

• Plumes were observed 400 m hightfrom the crater

Seismic Observation

• Based digital seismic data, seismic activities were increase in 19th April 2013, recorded 53 VA and 21 VB, where the average number of VT (VA and VB) in dormant periods are less then 10 events/day

19th April 2013 Soputan’s seismic

Grafik Harian Gempa Vulkanik Dangkal (VB) G. Soputan 2012

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Grafik Harian Gempa Vulkanik Dalam (VA) G. Soputan 2012

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Soputan Volcano hazard map

• Daily number of VT (VA and VB) are more than 10 events/day. The VT earthquakes are the good indicator/ precursor of Soputan eruption.

• Visitors and residents were prohibited from approaching the crater within a 6.5-km-radius


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LOKON

Lokon is a volcano complex. Consist of several old eruption points named Lokon, Empung and Tatawiran. Recent volcanic activity is on Kawah Tompaluan, a crater located at the saddle between Lokon and Empung peaks.

Lokon volcano has been erupting since July 2011

ERUPTION CHARACTER OF LOKON VOLCANO

a. Dominant of ash explosion and ejected glowing material, sometimes pyroclastic flow occurred.

b. Eruption interval of 1 – 4 years, with average of 3 years.

c. Explosions occurred for several days, 2011 – 2013 eruption is the longest explosion series that observed well for Lokon volcano. (July 10, 2011 Level IV, ~ 6000 peoples evacuated, July 24, 2011 downgraded to Level III until present)

d. Precursor eruption precede by increase in Deep and Shallow Volcanic earthquakes, and change in gas emission colour.

e. Explosive eruption, produce ash, ejected rock/volcanic bomb, and pyroclastic flow. Lahar occurred as secondary hazard

f. Explosion does not produce lava flow.

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Visual Observation

• Number of Lokon eruptions from January to May 2013 were 93 eruptions, generated ash plume that rose 500 – 3500 meter from the summit and ejected materials, volcanic bombs and ash

Seismic Observation

• Earthquakes that associated with the eruption were still recorded.

• Time interval between the increasing number of VT (VA and VB), as the seismic precursor of eruption, with the Lokon eruption is short.

Fresh bread crust bomb around Tompaluan crater, 27 December 2012.

Seismicity


eruption quake

Hybrid

VB

VA

TECTONIC

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Lokon volcano hazard map

• Eruptions are still frequenly occured, generated ash plume that rose 500 – 3500 meter and ejected materials, volcanic bombs near the crater and ash

• Short time interval between the increasing number of VT (VA and VB), as the seismic precursor of eruption, with the Lokon eruption could be the indicator of the unstable condition of Lokon volcano

• Local people and tourism not to get close and do activity within the radius 2.5 km from Tompaulan Crater (the centre of the activity)

• P Sangeang is uninhabited, only agricultural activity which also not settled.


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SANGEANGAPI

• An active complex volcano on the island of Sangeang, West-Nusatenggara.

• It consists of two volcanic cones, 1,949 metres (6,394 ft) Doro Api and 1,795 m (5,889 ft) Doro Mantoi

Level III since 19th May 2013

Visual Observation

• Lava dome growth and plumes rising 10 - 15 m above the crater

• Avalanches had occurred on the W and SW flanks

Seismic Observation

• Seismic activities were increased since 26th April 2013 and the trend is still increase until present

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• Lava dome growth and avalanches had occurred on the W and SW flanks

• Seismic activities were increased since 26th April 2013 and the trend is still up until present

• Local people and tourist/visitor not to get close and do activity within the radius 5 km from the crater


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Ijen

IJENLevel III since 24th July 2012

Ijen volcano in East Java contains the world's largest acidic volcanic crater lake, famous for its turquoise color. The active crater is known for its rich sulphur deposits which are being quarried.

600 m

Diameter : 600 x 1000 mDepth : ~ 200 mVolume : ~36 million m3

pH : 0.0 - 0.6Temperature : 20 – 50 oCConcentration

SO4 : ~80000 ppmCl: ~25000 ppm

F: ~1300 ppm

Direction toBanyupahit River

The last eruption occurred in 1993 producing high black ash with 1000 m height and 28th June 1999 which two phreatic eruptions occured, an accompanying detonation was heard at the sulfur-mining site 2 km from the summit.

Mt. Ijen eruption recorded in the history was phreatic explosion coming from the Crater Lake

Eruptions from Ijen are very hazardous because of the risk of the acidic lake draining to form catastrophic lahars.

The volcanic activity increase of Mt. Ijen in 2012 was revealed by the increasing volcanic earthquake followed by the increasing of SO2 gas emissio from Crater Lake

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Visual Observation• White plumes were occasionally observed rising 100-200 m above

the crater

Seismic Observation

• Seismicity indicated unrest, continuous tremor and VT (VA and VB) earthquakes were recorded

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Ijen Volcano Hazard Map

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• Seismicity indicated unrest

• People and tourist not to get close and do activity within the radius 1.5 km from the crater

• People liviing along Banyuputih River, up streaming in Crater Lake Ijen have to be alert to the possibility of Crater Lake Ijen overflow if explosion happens


PAPANDAYANLevel III since 5th May 2013

A strato volcano lies at the southern part ofGarut Regency and is about 70 km southeast of Bandung.

The possible danger happened to Papandayan in Level III status is immediate phreatic eruption which is followed by the poisonous gas or directed lateral blast.

The other threat is the avalanches of Papandayan Crater

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• Freatic eruption on November 11th, which caused the Nangklak crater’s wall fell down and its avalanche material entered to the flow of Cibeureum Gede River and caused flash flood.

• In November 15th, an explosive eruption happened and created Baru crater in 2002.

• Then in November 20th, directed lateral blast happened in which volcanic material out of the Nangklak Crater along 1 km towards northeast. The third eruption episodes in 2002 were preceded by the increase of significant volcanic quake.

In the last eruption 2002, three eruption episodes occurred (about 30.000 evacuated):

2002 eruption

Papandayan eruption recorded in the history was phreatic – phreatomagmatic explosion

Observation

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Soil temperatures around Papandayan's crater fluctuated but

increased overall

Earthquakes hypocenter in early May 2013.

The earthquakes concentrate around the Papandayan Crater in west-east direction

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SEISMICITY

Tremor menerus

Waspada Siaga

VA

VB

Hybrid

Tornillo

Tremor

Tectonic

Papandayan volcanoHazard map

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• Seismicity increased in May 2013 and soil temperaturshowed an increasing trend since March 2013

• The possible danger is immediate phreatic eruption which is followed by the poisonous gas or directed lateral blast.

The other potency is the cliff avalanches surrounding Papandayan Crater

• People and tourism not to get close and do activity within the radius 2 km from the crater complex


GAMKONORA

• White plumes were occasionally observed rising 100-300 m above the crater

• 25 – 27 May, 2013 a change in the color of gas emmision, observed with a thick white-gray height of 200-500 meters from the crater rim.

Visual Observation

• Gamkonora is a strato volcano located in West Halmahera regency, North Maluku Province

• Level III since 27th May 2013 based on an increase seismic and visual monitoring

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SEISMICITY

Gamkonora volcano hazard map

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• The last activity July 8, 2007 upgraded fron Level I to Level II, July 9, 2007 (at 10:00 AM Local time) upgraded from Level II to Level III. At 04:30 (PM Local Time), upgraded from Level III to Level IV, about 10.000 peoples evacuated (danger area: radius 8 km from summit). July 10, 2007 erupted, ash plume that rose 2000 – 4000 meter from the summit and ejected materials

• Increasing volcanic activity based on visual and seismicity data monitoring

• Alert level Gamkonora volcanic activity raised to Siaga (Level III) started on May 27, 2013 at 13:00 local time

• Local people and tourist not to get close and do activity within the radius 3 km from the crater


General Conclusion• Early warning (Level I - Level IV) is not to predict volcanic eruption (when and

how big the eruption will be), but each level depends on the level of activity and the potential hazards that may increase the hazard risk.

• From 8 volcanoes in Level III, 4 volcanoes are have been, ongoing and still potentially erupt in the near future (Lokon, Karangetang, Gamkonora, and Rokatenda), but the risk can be minimized by determine the radius of volcano eruption threats. Similarly, some volcanoes in Level II have the same conditions they are Marapi, Semeru, Ibu, Dukono etc.

• In a volcanic eruption hazard risk reduction required the cooperation of all parties, where people live around the volcano is the subject. Education to the community in anticipation of the threat of volcanic eruption hazards become a key so that people can live in harmony with volcanoes. Volcano is a blessing for the surrounding community. Volcanoes provide important in life and living: soil fertility, provide water, provide the magnificence, so that people can live in prosperity and peace.

• Indonesia has 127 active volcanoes, the largest number in the world, give people the chance to learn, to understand the willingness of volcanoes, to be grateful, to live in harmony with volcanoes and creating a culture in accordance with the wisdom of volcanoes

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Thank You

seismic observation

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