seismic
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Seismic Risk: Seismic Risk: An IntroductionAn Introduction
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IntroductionEarthquake engineering is a super-specialisation of structural engineering
Earthquake engineering deals with understanding earthquakes, their causes, their consequences, and designing structures to withstand earthquake forces
The field of study is highly multi-disciplinary with lead taken by structural engineers
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Background• Earthquakes are one of the most
devastating forces in nature
• Earthquakes disasters have been known since ancient times
• Earthquakes have been instrumental in changing the course of history
• Some of the most significant disasters in the last hundred years have been caused by earthquakes
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• The causes of earthquakes have been guessed by different civilisations since historical times
Mongolian LegendMongolian Legend
Earthquake Background
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• The causes of earthquakes have been guessed by different civilisations since historical times
Japanese LegendJapanese Legend
Earthquake BackgroundEarthquake Background
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Risk
Vulnerability
Site Effects
Hazard
Earthquake Risk
Probability of ground motion
Amplification due to: Soil Topography
Effect on structures due to: Building type and age Population density Land use Month and time
Probability of damage and losses
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Seismic Hazard Assessment
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• Records of every major earthquake in China during the last 3000 years
• Records of major earthquakes in India up to last 2500 years
• Records of major earthquakes over 2000 years in Middle-East
• Legends about earthquakes in India and several other ancient civilisations
Historical Background
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• Modern study of seismology has been carried out over the last 45-50 years only
• Most useful data has been collected using a world-wide network of seismological stations
• Records show that earthquakes are not uniformally distributed but concentrated along well defined lines
Modern Studies
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Earthquake Sources
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Most earthquakes are concentrated along boundaries of earth’s platesSome earthquakes also occur away from plate boundariesEarthquakes in many places are also associated with volcanic activitiesIn recent times, earthquakes may have been triggered by human structures and activities (dams, mining etc.)
Earthquake Sources
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• Earth is not a rigid and motionless mass
• Cross-section of the earth can be classified into four distinct concentric layers: Inner Core (Solid) Outer Core (Liquid) Mantle (Liquid) Crust (Solid)
Structure of Earth
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Structure of Earth
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Structure of Earth
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• Motion of earth’s plates are explained using Plate Tectonics
• According to Plate Tectonics: Earth’s land-mass were earlier joined
together The land-mass have broken up and
have drifted apart Relative motion is still continuing,
relative motion at plate boundaries cause earthquakes
Plate Tectonics
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Plate Tectonics
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Earth’s Plates
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Earth’s Plates
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Drift of Indian SubcontinentDrift of Indian Subcontinent
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• Considerable evidence now exist to support Plate Tectonics
• Types of evidence: Geological and geomorphological -
similar rock formations Anthropological - similar vegetation and
animal life Geomagnetic - magnetic anomalies
support drifting away of land mass from Atlantic ridge and other places
Plate Tectonics
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Prehistoric Flora and Fauna
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Elastic Rebound Theory
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Example of Fault Rupture
Chile EarthquakeChile Earthquake
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Example of Fault Rupture
Taiwan EarthquakeTaiwan Earthquake
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Example of Fault Rupture
Kobe EarthquakeKobe Earthquake
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Example of Fault Rupture
Kobe EarthquakeKobe Earthquake
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Example of Fault Rupture
Kobe EarthquakeKobe Earthquake
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Earthquake Waves• Elastic rebound produces waves from the
point of rupture
• The rupture may be localised at a point, along a slip line or a slip surface
• Earthquake waves have clearly identifiable components Primary wave (refractory) Secondary or shear wave
(transverse) Raleigh wave (refractory) Love wave (transverse)
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Earthquake Waves
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Earthquake Magnitude• Earthquake magnitude is most commonly defined
in RichterRichter magnitude It is logarithm of the maximum displacement
(in µm) recorded on a particular type of seismograph 100 km from the epicentre
Richter magnitude is open-ended and has no maximum value
• Scientifically more useful measure is based on seismic moment and measures the total energy that is released Both magnitudes give similar value for
moderate earthquakes (M 5.0 - M7.5)
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Earthquake Intensity• Earthquake intensity is a measure of its
consequence• Most popular intensity scales are primarily
based on structure damage MMI (Defines 12 intensities) based only on
performance of buildings MSK (Defines 12 intensities) based on building
performance, geotechnical effects as well as human perception
• Most countries (including India) use MSK intensity scale or its modifications to suit local conditions
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Indian Seismicity
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Seismic Hazard
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Assessment of Site Effects
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Influence of Local ConditionsMaximum ground motion also depends on local
soil/rock properties
Maximum ground displacement in Northridge earthquake (1994)
10 km
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Mumbai Description
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Influence of Local Conditions
Anjar Town-Plan and Local Soil Conditions
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Seismic HazardChallenges in Hazard Assessment
• Location of seismogenic features• Fault size, movement rate, return
period• Inadequate historical earthquake
data• Information on local soil conditions
These require significant additional scientific studies to provide reliable information
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Seismic Vulnerability Assessment
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Seismic VulnerabilityDepends on type of structures (structure category) and their age
Depends on land use in city (space between adjacent buildings, height of buildings etc.)
Depends on month and time (buildings may be weaker during the rainy season, and residential buildings more fully occupied during nights)
Depends on population density (impact of damage of a building to number of people)
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Urban Construction Practice
Engineered Constructions Reinforced concrete buildings Brick masonry buildings with RCC roof
Non-Engineered Constructions Informal brick masonry buildings Other non-engineered buildings using
light weight materials
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Seismic Vulnerability• Seismic vulnerability can be expressed
in terms of vulnerability curves
V VI VII VIII IX X XI
50%
100%
0%
% D
AM
AG
E
EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY (MSK)
Non-engineeredMasonry
RCC Steel
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Seismic Vulnerability
Year Collapses
1993-94 236
1994-95 253
1995-96 224
1996-97 272
1997-98 259
1998-99 305
1999-00 154
2000-01 260
2001-02 273 Num
ber
of b
uild
ing
colla
pses
in
Mum
bai –
wit
hou
t an
y
wit
hou
t an
y
eart
hq
uake
eart
hq
uake
• Must consider the consequences of very poor building stock – example: Mumbai
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Seismic Risk
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• Risk has the following components–Hazard–Site Effects–Vulnerability
• Inadequate understanding of earthquake hazard in large parts of India
• Vulnerability of different structure types are poorly assessed
Earthquake Risk
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Research indicates following scenario for an earthquake disaster in Mumbai (2001)
Example :: Mumbai
Time MSK VI MSK VII MSK VIII
Midnight 11,200 42,600 100,100
6 A.M. 9,000 34,000 80,000
12 Noon 6,700 25,500 60,100
Estimated number of fatalities and injuries due to building collapse
Time MSK VI MSK VII MSK VIII
Midnight 31,400 118,400 277,600
6 A.M. 25,000 94,600 222,100
12 Noon 18,800 71,000 166,500
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SummarySignificant knowledge about earthquakes and its consequences exist in scientific communityInterest in earthquakes continue since prehistoric timesEarthquakes can cause severe damage due to strong ground motions and/or deformationsSeismic risk depends on hazard, site conditions and structure vulnerability
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India is divided into 4 seismic zones (low to very high seismic hazard)Most large cities have moderate to high seismic hazardThe damage at a locality is influenced by the local soil conditionsBuilding performance depends on ground motions as well as structural characteristics
Summary
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Vulnerability is expected to be very high due to poor building stockInformation on hazard, site effect and vulnerability can be combined to assess seismic riskSeismic risk is high due to uncertainty about hazard and high vulnerability
Summary
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