sefton childcare sufficiency assessment 2007 · accurate measurement of change over the past year...

The 2016 Assessment of

Childcare Sufficiency

Analysis Report

March 2016

Cheshire West Chester CSA Analysis Report 2016 (2).docx FINAL

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Contents

1.Introduction 2

Aims and Objectives 2

Methodology 3

2.Factors affecting Demand and Ability to Pay 5

Children and Families in Cheshire West and Chester 5

Economic Activity 10

Deprivation 13

Summary: Factors affecting Demand and Ability to Pay 15

3.The Supply of Childcare 16

Childcare Settings 17

Childcare Places 20

The Spread of Childcare 22

Availability of care across the day 25

Supply of Places by Age Range and Type 26

School-Aged Childcare 28

Early Years Education 30

Childcare Costs 34

Summary: The Supply of Childcare 37

4.The Demand for Childcare 39

Vacancy Analysis 39

Occupancy 41

Provider confidence 41

Statistical Evidence Analysis 45

Summary: The Demand for Childcare 47

Appendix 1: Demand Index Data 48

Appendix 2: Childcare and early years provision by locality 50


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1. Introduction

Aims and Objectives

1.1 This report aims to provide Chester West & Chester Council with an updated

assessment of sufficiency regarding the supply of childcare and parental demand for

childcare and early years education provision. The assessment is a measurement of

the nature and extent of the need for, and supply of, childcare within the local area. It

will help the Authority to identify where there are gaps in the market and, in

consultation with partners, plan how to support the market to address them. This is

particularly important at a time when national policy changes are likely to impact on

local childcare markets. In particular, the proposals for 30 hours of ‘free childcare’ as

set out in the Government’s 2015 Childcare Bill alongside changes to both employer-

supported childcare and the introduction of Universal Credit.

1.2 Sufficient childcare can be defined as ‘sufficient to meet the requirements of parents in

area who require childcare in order to enable them:

To take up, or remain in, work, or

To undertake education or training which could reasonably be expected to assist

them to obtain work.

1.3 At its core, the Assessment provides an analysis of supply and demand that highlights

the following potential gaps in the local childcare market:

Geographical Gaps: a lack of childcare places in an area

Income Gaps: a shortage of affordable childcare

Time Gaps: a shortage of childcare when it is required by parents

Age Gaps: a shortage of care suited to children of a certain age group.

1.4 In achieving this, information and specific data has been gathered relating to:

Baseline socio‐economic information including population profiles and population

changes; deprivation; family incomes.

Local labour market factors that may influence demand for specific childcare

services;

The levels and spread of current childcare provision across the Authority

analysed by; type of care; age‐group served; type of provision; and cost of care.

Unmet demand for childcare services across the local authority area evidenced

from statistical data.

1.5 Conclusions from the above have been drafted relating to:


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The current level of each type of care (number of places and hours offered) being

provided;

Issues relating to localised under‐supply or inappropriate pattern and types of

childcare and early years education provision;

Changes in supply and demand in childcare and early years education

observable between 2014 and 2016.

Methodology

1.6 This Assessment will replicate the methodology used for the 2014 Childcare

Sufficiency Assessment. This involves the collection and collation of secondary data

from within the Local Authority alongside primary data gathered during a structured

telephone survey of childcare providers. In both cases, data has been drawn from the

same sources allowing a longitudinal aspect to be incorporated in this study enabling

accurate measurement of change over the past year alongside the presentation of a

snapshot picture of the supply and demand for childcare in Cheshire West and

Chester in early 2016.

1.7 Geographical areas for this study have been at Local Authority, Neighbourhood

Locality (4), and Wards (46 areas).

Figure 1: Wards and Neighbourhood Localities


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1.8 Where new data has been collected, it has been assigned to Wards areas by postcode

using the ONS All Fields Postcode Directory (February 2016).

1.9 The age ranges of children used throughout the assessment are: age two and under;

aged three and four; ages five, six and seven; ages eight, nine and ten; ages eleven,

twelve, thirteen and fourteen. In examination of specific data and dependent of the

subject matter, age groups have in some cases been combined (e.g. children nought

to four representing all pre‐school children).


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2. Factors affecting Demand and Ability to Pay

2.1 The analysis of demographic and socio‐economic indicators allows a greater

understanding of the profile of the local population. This in turn gives a greater

understanding of what the local population may need and / or demand in relation to

childcare provision. In this section, data has been collated to allow the following issues

to be addressed:

Where children and young people are most concentrated across the local

authority

Where populations are changing over time

The composition of families in the area

Where there are areas of concentration of parents / carers who are economically

active across the local authority

Where there are concentrations of advantage and disadvantage across Cheshire

West and Chester

Children and Families in Cheshire West and Chester

2.2 In the planning of early education and childcare, a detailed analysis of the current

spread of children and trends relating to child population is crucial in understanding

where demand for childcare might be both now and in the future.

Population

2.3 Mid 2014 Population estimates suggest that there were some 54,5081 children aged

nought to fourteen years of age living in Cheshire West and Chester, a fall of 0.7%

from the 2013 estimate.

2.4 Children were not spread equally across the local authority area and compared to the

overall population there were proportionally fewer children in the Chester and the Rural

West areas.

2.5 By Ward, the proportion of nought to fourteen year olds ranges from below 5% in

Garden Quarter Ward to over 20% in the Town, Rossmore and Grange Wards in

Ellesmere Port, Lache ward in Chester and Winsford Over and Verdin Ward. Demand

for locally‐based childcare may be greater in areas where there are more children and,

given the large range in Cheshire West and Chester, this could be a significant factor.

1 ONS 2014 Mid-Year Population Estimates for England and Wales.


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Figure 2: Proportion of children in the population by locality (ONS 2014)

Figure 3: Proportion of children in population

2.6 Between 2002 and 2014, the population of children and young people in Cheshire

West and Chester is estimated to have fallen by -7.8% with the largest fall in Ellesmere

Port (-14.1%), followed by Northwich and Winsford (-9.1%), Rural Communities (6.7%)

and Chester (-1%). Following a number of years of steady rises, the number of

children born each year is declining in Cheshire West & Chester.


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Figure 4: Live births to residents 2001 to 2013 2

2.7 Nonetheless, the number of births is uneven across the Local authority area. If births

are related to the number of families with children aged nought to fourteen, we find that

by Children’s Centre area there were far more births in the Portside (7.1%), Blacon

(5.3%) Victoria Road (4.9%) and Chester Victoria (4.9%) than the average of 3.8%

across the authority. There far fewer births in most of the Rural Communities including

Malpas, Farndon & Tarvin (2.2%).

2.8 Population change is not just driven by births however, with migration, new housing

development and welfare policy also playing a part. Between 2002 and 2014 a number

of wards experienced growth in the population of children by as much as 55% (Chester

City) while others saw falls of up to -33% (Ledsham and Manor) although in some

cases, small child populations will exaggerate changes. Figure 5 shows the changes

across the local authority.

2 ONS Annual Birth Extracts 2001-2014


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Figure 5: Change in population of children aged 0 to 14 years 2001 to 20133

2.9 4Future demand for childcare may be affected by housing development, although not

always the case, as factors such as the type, price and style of new residential

development need to be considered. The local plan produced by Cheshire West and

Chester plans for 1,100 new residential units to be built each year across Cheshire

West and Chester between 2010 and 2030. When this is taken into consideration

alongside the age structure of the population, numbers of females of childbearing age

and fertility rates it is forecast that there may be an increase in number of children

aged nought to fourteen over the coming years to a high of between 58,500 to 59,000

between 2022 and 2025.

2.10 The following table shows the forecast increase in population aged nought to fourteen

in each locality. The greatest percentage increase in people aged nought to fourteen is

forecast in Chester locality (11% between 2012 and 2022).

3 ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates for England and Wales 2002-2013 4 This data was included in the 2014 Childcare Sufficiency Assessment and is summarised here as no new data is available to update forecasts.


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Figure 6: Forecast 0 to 14 population by locality, 2012 to 2022.

2012 2022

Change

(2012-2022)

Percentage change

(2012-22)

Chester 12,200 13,500 1,400 11%

Ellesmere Port 10,500 11,600 1,000 10%

Northwich and Winsford 17,900 19,600 1,700 9%

Rural 13,700 14,000 300 2%

Cheshire West and Chester 54,300 58,700 4,400 8%

Household Composition

2.11 The make‐up of the households where children live in Cheshire West and Chester can

provide useful information for making an assessment of childcare sufficiency. As this

information is only collected at the Census, the data remains unchanged from the 2014

Childcare Sufficiency Assessment.

2.12 Taking households in Cheshire West and Chester where dependent children lived, in

2011 60% were headed by a married couple (58% in England). A further 15% were

headed by a cohabiting couple (15% in England) and 25% were headed by a lone

parent (27% in England). Since 2001 the proportion of lone parent households in

Cheshire West and Chester has increased from 19%. By area, there are significant

differences in the proportion of lone parents as shown on the following map.


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Figure 7: Proportion of children living in Lone Parent households (2011 Census)

2.14 The proportion of children living in lone parent families is an important consideration in

that they often have a greater need for childcare. However, lone parents are far less

likely to work resulting in a lower demand for childcare. Across Cheshire West and

Chester, the proportion of children in lone parent families ranged from 11% in the

Malpas, Farndon & Tarvin area, to 31% in the Portside area of Ellesmere Port.

Economic Activity

2.15 Childcare predominantly supports parents who work therefore assessment of

economic activity ‐ and inactivity ‐ is essential in making an assessment of childcare

sufficiency.

2.16 Taking Cheshire West and Chester as a whole, in September 2015 76.6% of the adult

population (aged sixteen to sixty four) were economically active. This is higher than the

North West average of 75.1% but lower than the UK average of 77.7%5.

Female Economic Activity6

2.17 Consistently, research has shown that women take responsibility for childcare

decisions therefore demand for childcare is strongly linked to female economic

5 ONS annual population survey (2015) NomisWeb. 6 Ibid


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participation. In 2015, 72.8% of women aged sixteen to sixty four were economically

active with 69.8% of women in employment. Female economic activity in Cheshire

West and Chester is higher than the North West average (70%) and similar to the

national rate (72.3%) but more women in the area are employees than either the

regional or national averages.

2.18 In 2015 the mean gross weekly pay for women who were employed full-time in

Cheshire West and Chester was £457, up 6.5% from £429 in 2013. Wages for women

are 3% higher than the North West average but 3.2% lower than the national rate7.

Claimant Count8

2.19 The number of people out of work in Cheshire West and Chester rose significantly

between 2007 and 2011 in response to the overall economic situation. Since then the

rate has fallen, and is now 1.4% (lower than 2007). The claimant count rate in

Cheshire West and Chester is consistently lower than the average across the North

West and in Great Britain as a whole.

Figure 8: Job Seekers Allowance Claimants 2013 to 2016 (%)9

2.20 While overall unemployment rates identify areas where people might be looking for

work, the proportion of households with dependent children where no-one works

provides an indication as to areas where demand for childcare will be lower, but also

where childcare might be needed to break down barriers to work.

7 ONS annual survey of hours and earnings - resident analysis (2015) Nomisweb 8 JSA Claimant Count September 2014 9 ONS quarterly claimant count (NomisWeb) 2016


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2.21 In 2013/1410, 15% of children in Cheshire West and Chester lived in out of work

families11. This compares with the North West average of 20% and 19% across

England and Wales. While Ward data is unavailable, the small area (LSOA) with the

highest percentage of children living in workless families is found in the locality of

Winsford, Swanlow and Dene, closely followed by Winsford Over and Verdin. This

area (Winsford Swanlow and Verdin) contains the LSOA with the highest % of children

in workless families - 45.2% - however LSOAs in this locality show a wide range with

the lowest % of children in workless families being 7.5%. Winsford Over and Verdin

shows a similar trend. Small areas in the ward of Ellesmere Port town (Ellesmere Port

Locality) have between 26.4% and 36.4% of children living in workless families.

Figure 9: Children in workless households

2.22 According to Department for Work and Pensions data, around 15.7% of children in

Cheshire West and Chester were likely to be living in poverty, although as is shown on

the map below, the highest levels of child poverty are concentrated in a small number

of areas.

10 HMRC Child Tax Credit Data 2013/14 11 Based on all families in receipt of Child Benefit but refers to the period prior to Child Benefit being withdrawn from higher rate tax payers.


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Figure 10: Child Poverty12

Deprivation

2.23 The Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) published by Government provide the most

comprehensive analysis available to measure deprivation. The indices take into

account a range of social and economic factors including employment, income,

education, housing, crime etc. and give each neighbourhood a score and a national

ranking.

2.24 An area is generally thought of as being deprived when it has an index score that

ranks it within the top 20% of all areas in England. The most recent IMD data shows

that in Cheshire West and Chester, 32 areas can be identified as having high levels of

deprivation affecting children, including areas of Ellesmere Port, Chester and

Winsford, with 19 neighbourhoods within the 10% most deprived.

2.25 There are clear correlations in Cheshire West and Chester between the Index and a

range of other data, including density of child populations, lone parent rates,

unemployment, economic activity, benefit levels and household incomes that all point

to low levels of deprivation in most areas, but relatively high deprivation in a number of

pockets as shown in Figure 11.

12 Number of children living in families in recept of CTC whose reported income is less than 60 per cent of the median income or in receipt of IS or (Income-Based) JSA< divided by the total number of children in the area (determined by Child Benefit data) 2013/14


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Figure 11: Index of Deprivation Affecting Children 201513

13 Department for Communities, Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010


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Summary: Factors affecting Demand and Ability to Pay

There were an estimated 54,508 children aged nought to fourteen living in the

Cheshire West and Chester area, making up just over 16.4% of the entire

population. The proportion of children in each area differs, however, ranging from

5% to over 21% making this an important factor as demand for locally-based

childcare may be greater in areas where there are more children.

Since 2002 the population of children has been falling steadily across most of the

Cheshire West and Chester area with nearly 8% fewer children in 2014. The

Ellesmere Port and Neston area has seen the largest decline in child population

(-14%) although new housing may impact on the population. At present however,

any increasing demand for childcare in Cheshire West and Chester is coming

from changing socio-economic factors rather than demographics.

Unemployment, low incomes, child poverty and overall levels of deprivation are

all greater in a small number of areas of Cheshire West and Chester. As found in

previous analyses, the Blacon, Sutton, Grange, Ellesmere Town and Rossmore

Wards are consistently those where demand for childcare is likely to be lowest

because of those factors.

While Cheshire West and Chester has a lower than average proportion of lone

parents, nearly a quarter of children live with a lone parent with a consequentially

greater need for childcare. The proportion of children living in lone parent families

is far greater in the more economically deprived areas such as around the

Portside, Blacon, Over, Victoria Road and Stanlaw Abbey Children’s Centres.

More parents in Cheshire West and Chester are working and those in work have

higher earnings. In particular, the proportion of women in employment is high and

they earn more than the regional average. These conditions should result in a

strong demand for childcare services. However, in some areas, over a third of

children are in workless households. In these areas, the availability of market-led

childcare may be a barrier to work for parents.


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3. The Supply of Childcare

3.1 The Childcare Act (2006) defined childcare for which the Sufficiency Assessment must

take account as that for which the childcare element of the Working Tax Credit14 is

payable.

3.2 In practice, this comprises full daycare, sessional daycare, out of school care and

childminders registered with Ofsted under compulsory registration or settings on the

voluntary Ofsted childcare register and unregistered childcare provided by schools. For

the purposes of this assessment, childcare has also been subdivided by pre-school

childcare and school-aged childcare.

3.3 Local and national research has found a significant amount of care that children

receive outside their own homes is informal (provided by grandparents or other

relatives or friends) and therefore falls outside of the scope of this Assessment,

although its use has an impact on the demand for formal services and therefore must

be taken into account.

Methodology

3.4 The data presented here relies on, firstly, intelligence gathered by Cheshire West and

Chester Information, Advice and Support Service which in turn is up to date with data

received from Ofsted. Secondly, data has been gathered from a survey of those

childcare settings recorded by Cheshire West and Chester IASS during January 2016.

The survey builds on a cross-sectional survey undertaken for the 2014 Childcare

Sufficiency Assessment and wherever possible the same providers have been

interviewed to provide a longitudinal perspective to the research. In 2016, 247

childcare providers were interviewed by telephone with questions asked relating to

their capacity, occupancy and pricing. This represents 49% of childcare settings

recorded by Cheshire West and Chester IASS15. Survey design ensured that a

representative sample was made by type of setting and across the local authority as

set out below:

Figure 12: Childcare provider survey response rates (January 2016)

Childminder Day nursery Holiday

Scheme

Out of

School Care

Pre-School

Playgroup

Grand Total

Chester 23% 80% n/a 65% 64% 49%

14 From 2017 Working Tax Credit will be replaced by Universal Credit within which the childcare element is more generous. 15 The sample provides a Confidence Interval of 4.62 at a Confidence Level of 95%.


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Ellesmere

Port

32% 92% 100% 53% 92% 49%

Northwich

and

Winsford

22% 68% 50% 65% 83% 51%

Rural 38% 62% 75% 32% 50% 49%

Grand Total 23% 72% 38% 49% 69% 49%

3.5 Data from the survey has been extrapolated to provide a representation of childcare

provision within each area of the local authority within the margins of error as

calculated from the sample size and total population.

Childcare Settings

3.6 In January 2016 there were 502 different childcare settings recorded by Cheshire West

and Chester Information, Advice and Support Service compared with 546 in 2014/15, a

drop in 8% in the number of childcare settings. While the number of day nurseries

remained the same, there were 37 fewer childminders, three fewer holiday schemes,

one less out of school club and 3 fewer pre-school settings.

Figure 13: Number of Childcare Settings in Cheshire West and Chester16

16 Cheshire West & Chester IASS January 2015 and January 2016


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3.7 Childcare provision is broadly spread across all four areas of the Authority and,

compared with the population, there are 4.3 Childminders (5 in 2015), 1.4 Day

Nurseries, 1.8 After School Clubs and 1.5 pre-school playgroups for every 1,000

children aged nought to fourteen years. There are differences in the range of provision

available in each area as set out in Figure 14 and taking into account both changes in

population and provision the total number of settings per 1,000 children has dropped

from 10.1 in 2014/15 to 9.2 in 2016.

Figure 14: Number of childcare settings per 1,000 children aged 0 to 1417

3.8 The greatest loss of provision relative to the population of children has been in

Ellesmere Port where there were 7 fewer childminders, one less day nursery, holiday

scheme, out of school club and pre-school respectively. Families in the Rural area still

have the greatest choice of childcare settings.

17 Cheshire West & Chester IASS January 2016 and ONS 2014 Mid-Year Population Estimates

Type Chester Ellesmere PortNorthwich and

WinsfordRural Grand Total

Childminder 4.8 3.9 4.7 3.8 4.3

Day nursery 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.4

Holiday Scheme 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1

Out of School Care 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.8 1.8

Pre-School Playgroup 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.2 1.5

Grand Total 8.6 8.0 9.0 10.9 9.2


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Figure 15: Childcare Providers by Type and Location (IASS, 2016)

Cheshire West Chester CSA Analysis Report 2016 (2).docx

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Childcare Places

3.9 Following the same methodology as in 2014/15, the overall maximum number of

places in an area has been extrapolated from the survey of childcare settings, taking

the average capacity of each setting type and applying this across the settings

recorded by IASS.

Figure 16: Average number of childcare places available per setting18

Chester Ellesmere Port Northwich

and Winsford

Rural Average

Childminder 6.77 6.17 6.60 6.44 6.53

Day Nursery 67.53 58.15 60.26 58.63 60.74

Holiday

Scheme

33.00 33.00 33.00 32.67 32.82

Out of School

Care

36.88 43.83 34.73 34.66 36.73

Pre-School

Playgroup

28.85 25.79 29.12 25.90 27.33

Average 34.61 33.39 32.74 31.66

3.10 It can therefore be calculated that, in total, there are likely to be around 12,416

childcare places19 available to parents across Cheshire West and Chester. This

compares with 12,523 recorded in 2014/15. A loss of 247 childminder places was

partially offset by an increase in day nursery, holiday scheme and out of school places

resulting in a net loss of only 106 places overall.

18 Childcare provider survey 2014 19 +/- 4.06%


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Figure 17: Estimated number of childcare places available in Cheshire West and Chester (2014)

Type Chester Ellesmere Port Northwich and

Winsford

Rural Grand

Total

Childminder 406 253 548 335 1542

Day nursery 1013 756 1507 1524 4799

Holiday Scheme 33 33 66 131 263

Out of School Care 627 745 903 1317 3599

Pre-School Playgroup 404 335 699 777 2214

Grand Total 2483 2122 3722 4084 12416

3.11 By area (Figure 18) Chester and the Rural areas have lost the most places, although

within the margin of error used for calculation, the changes are not important.

Figure 18: Change in childcare places by locality 2014-2016


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3.12 It would seem therefore, that there has been no significant change in the number of

childcare places in Cheshire West and Chester over the year although a trend away

from childminding places to other types of provision is clearly continuing.

3.13 The day nursery sector provides the largest, and an increasing proportion of childcare

places in the area. Despite there being more childminders, they provide relatively few

places.

Figure 19: Childcare places in CWAC by type20

3.14 A clearer measure of childcare supply and change in childcare provision at local levels

can be made by examining the number of childcare places that are available

compared with the local population of children. This measure has been used

throughout this assessment using the calculation: Number of Childcare Places ÷

[Child Population ÷ 100].

3.15 Amongst 54,508 children and young people aged nought to fourteen 21, the 12,523

childcare places in Cheshire West and Chester represents 23 places for every 100

children. The rate remains unchanged from 2014/15 as childcare places have declined

broadly in line with the population of children.

The Spread of Childcare

3.16 Across the four locality areas in Cheshire West and Chester there was some variation

in levels of childcare provision ranging from 20 places for every 100 children (aged

nought to fourteen) in Ellesmere Port to just over 30 places in the Rural area although

there has been little change since 2014/15.

20 Data extrapolated from childcare provider survey and CWAC IASS data 2016 21 ONS 2013 Mid-Year Population Estimates for England and Wales.


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Figure 20: Distribution of Childcare Places against Resident Population of Children22

3.17 Figure 21 shows the number of childcare places by type set against the total

population of children in each area. There has been little change in these figures since

2014/15. The Rural Area still has more places overall but these are mostly in group-

care settings rather than with childminders. Ellesmere Port has a lower number of

childminders and day nurseries than other areas suggesting that there may be a low

demand, or low supply of childcare for pre-school children. Levels of pre-school

childcare places are closer to the average in both the Chester and the Northwich and

Winsford areas although there is less out of school care in these areas.

Figure 21: Childcare places by area and type per 100 children aged 0 to 14

Type Chester Ellesmere Port Northwich and

Winsford

Rural Grand

Total

Childminder 3.2 2.4 3.1 2.4 2.8

Day nursery 8.0 7.2 8.5 11.1 8.7

Holiday

Scheme

0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.5

Out Of

School Care

5.0 7.1 5.1 9.6 6.7

22 Cheshire West & Chester IASS September 2014, Childcare provider survey 2014 and ONS 2013 Mid-Year Population Estimates


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Pre-School

Playgroup

3.2 3.2 3.9 5.7 4.0

Grand Total 19.7 20.1 21.0 29.8

3.18 Childcare providers surveyed in November 2014 and again in January 2016 were

asked how many individual children they catered for (recognising that one available

place can be used by different children at different times). Extrapolating this data

across the Authority suggests that a third (33%) of all children aged nought to fourteen

use formal childcare on a regular basis. More children use childcare in the Rural Area

and in Northwich and Winsford than in the other localities.

Figure 22: Proportion of all children aged 0 to 14 registered with a childcare provider (2016)23

Type Chester Ellesmere Port Northwich

and Winsford

Rural Grand Total

Childminder 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%

Day nursery 12% 9% 12% 19% 13%

Holiday

Scheme

0% 0% 1% 2% 1%

Out of School

Care

7% 7% 11% 14% 10%

Pre-School

Playgroup

4% 5% 7% 7% 6%

All Childcare 27% 24% 34% 45% 33%

23 Because children may use more than one setting in a day or across a week, this figure is unlikely to be wholly accurate but is helpful in indicating relative reach and monitoring change over time.


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3.19 Since 2014/15, the reach of childcare has not changed very much with the exception

of Chester where use of childcare services increased from 27% of children to 33%.

Availability of care across the day

3.20 Childcare settings were asked how many hours their services were available across

the day. Day nurseries have the longest opening hours averaging 10.2 hours with a

range from between 6 and 11 hours. Childminders average 9 hours ranging from just 3

hours to 13 hours per day. The average pre-school is open for 5.6 hours while out of

school clubs have the shortest daily opening at just 3.7 hours. By area, childcare in

Ellesmere Port has the shortest average opening hours with the Rural area having the

longest hours – perhaps reflecting longer travel-to-work times.

Figure 23: Opening hours per day

Average of

Opening

Hours (per

day)

Chester Ellesmere Port Northwich

and Winsford

Rural Average

Childminder 9.0 8.6 9.8 8.9 9.0

Day Nursery 10.0 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.2

Holiday

Scheme

10.7 0.0 8.7 10.5 9.9

Out of School

Care

3.6 3.0 3.9 3.8 3.7

Pre-School

Playgroup

4.5 6.1 5.6 5.8 5.6

Averages 7.6 7.0 7.6 7.8 7.7


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Supply of Places by Age Range and Type

3.21 While the total stock of childcare places provides an indication of childcare supply, it is

more useful to identify the amount of care by the type of care and the age-ranges

catered for. In this section, a distinction is made between childcare that is able to

support full-time working parents and early education and childcare for pre-school

children (under fives) and school-aged children (five to fourteen years).

Early Years Childcare

3.22 Early Years Childcare is care that is available for children before statutory school age

that is able to support full-time working parents. This is mainly provided by

childminders and day nurseries. While maintained schools with nursery classes and

pre-school playgroups that offer sessional care are also part of a package of care and

early education that is used by parents to support their working hours, they are usually

used in conjunction with another type of formal or informal care and therefore are

analysed separately.

3.23 There were 236 Childminders and 79 Day Nurseries recorded by Cheshire West and

Chester IASS in January 2016. Of these, 104 Childminders and 57 Day Nurseries

were surveyed in 2016. Most childminders and all of the day nurseries that were

interviewed were able to offer full days ranging in length between 7am to 7pm

(although the average opening time is 8am – 6 pm) with one or two Childminders

offering early or later care by special arrangement. Most childminders are also able to

offer some flexibility of care that is able to meet the needs of a variety of parental

working-patterns across the day and across the week.

3.24 Taking information supplied by these providers regarding the maximum number of

places for children aged nought to four that they are currently able to cater for, it can

be estimated that there are 6,341 childcare places available across the Authority for

children aged nought to four with Day Nurseries and Childminders (up from 5,677 in

2014/15). When compared with the number of children in the population (18,02724) the

average across the Authority is 35 places available for every 100 children (31.4 in

2014/15). As found previously, there are still fewer places in Ellesmere Port (29 places

per 100) than elsewhere.

24 ONS 2014 Mid-Year Population Estimates for England and Wales.


Page 27

Figure 24: Early Years Childcare provision and 0 to 4 population (2016)

Figure 25: Early Years Childcare places for children aged 0 to 4 relative to the population (places per 100 children aged 0 to 4)

3.25 Survey data points to a small increase in the overall amount of Early Years Childcare

compared with the population of children between 2014/15 and 2016 with rates

increasing in all areas aside from the Rural locality. This is as much about changing

population as changing childcare supply.

Sessional Care

3.26 Sessional Care is usually defined as daycare that is provided for a period of less than

four hours. It is used primarily to deliver funded early education, which means that, in

practice, sessions are usually provided for 3 hours per day. Some settings provide


Page 28

additional childcare to increase hours to match the school day and many admit both

funded and non-funded two year olds as well as three and four year olds eligible for

free early education. On average, pre-schools operate for 5.4 hours per day although

many of those surveyed operate two 3 hour sessions per day for different children.

3.27 In Cheshire West and Chester, there were 81 Pre-School playgroups recorded by the

IASS in 2016, which was three fewer than recorded in 2014/15. Together they are

providing an estimated 2,214 places (2,270 in 2014/15).

Figure 26: Sessional Care provision sized by number of available places and population of children aged 0 to 4

School-Aged Childcare

3.28 Out of school childcare is care that is provided before school, after school and during

school holidays for children of school age. In most cases this includes children aged

four and over. Alongside Out of School Clubs, Childminders and some Day Nurseries

also provide care for children of school age. A number of Day Nurseries operate Out of

School Clubs which are recorded separately, but some others accommodate school-

aged children within the nursery. The survey of providers found that 10% of day

nurseries cater for children of school age in this way with around 3% of all day nursery

places used by children of school age.

3.29 Based on the survey of childcare providers in January 2016 it is estimated that there

are 4,530 Out of School Care places available, down from 4,809 found in 2014/15.


Page 29

Figure 27: Estimated number of Out of School Childcare Places (2016)

Type Chester Ellesmere Port Northwich

and Winsford

Rural Grand Total

Childminder 207 129 279 171 786

Out of School

Care

627 745 903 1317 3599

Day Nursery 30 23 45 46 144

Grand Total 865 897 1228 1534 4530

3.30 Relative to the population, there were on average 12.4 out of school places for every

100 children aged five to fourteen years of age compared with 13.3 places found in

2014/15 with fewer places across all areas.

Figure 28: Out of School Places per 100 Children aged 5 to 14 (2014-2016)


Page 30

Figure 29: Out of School Care provision sized by number of available places

Early Years Education

3.31 All 4-year-olds have been entitled to a funded early education place since 1998 and in

2004 this was extended to all 3-year-olds. From September 2013, the entitlement to 15

hours of funded early education per week for 38 weeks of the year was extended to 2-

year-olds meeting the following eligibility criteria: they have a parent in receipt of:

income support; income-based jobseeker’s allowance (JSA); income-related

employment and support allowance (ESA); support through Part 6 of the Immigration

and Asylum Act 1999; the guaranteed element of State Pension Credit; Child Tax

Credit (but not Working Tax Credit) and have an annual gross income not exceeding

£16,190 as assessed by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs; the Working Tax Credit

4-week run on (the payment someone receives for a further four weeks after they stop

qualifying for Working Tax Credit); or they are looked after by a local authority. From

September 2014, the entitlement to 15 hours of funded early education per week for

38 weeks of the year was extended further to 2-year-olds who met the following

eligibility criteria: they have a parent in receipt of Working Tax Credits and have an

annual gross income not exceeding £16,190 a year as assessed by Her Majesty’s

Revenue and Customs; they have a current statement of Special Educational Needs

(SEN) or an Education, Health and Care plan; they are entitled to Disability Living

Allowance; they are no longer looked after by the local authority as a result of an

adoption order, a special guardianship order, or a child arrangements order which

specifies with whom the child lives.


Page 31

3.32 In Cheshire West and Chester funded early years education is provided by a mixture

of statutory, voluntary and private settings (see Appendix 2 for locations of all settings

by locality area). As of 31 December 2015 there were 243 settings on the Early Years

Register with Ofsted along with 39 maintained nursery classes and five nursery units

of independent schools.

3.33 In January 2016, 5,452 children or 95% of three and four year olds were in funded

early education in Cheshire West and Chester. This is similar to the 96% take-up

found across England25 in 2015. The number of two-year-olds taking up a place in

2016 was estimated to be 82% of those eligible which is higher than the 60% found in

Cheshire West and Chester in 2014 and above the average for England in 2015

(58%)26.

Figure 30: Funded Early Education Places for two, three and four Year Olds27,28

Children’s Centre Area All funded

places for

two to four

year olds

two year olds in

settings (HC)

Eligible

families

(DWP)

two year

old %

take up

(based

on HC)

three and

four year

olds in

settings

(HC)

Birth cohort

(Estimated)

Three

& four

year

old %

take up

Barnton 347 38 51 75% 309 279 111%

Blacon 340 69 105 66% 271 320 85%

Cherry Grove 268 21 30 70% 247 273 90%

Chester Victoria 212 24 34 71% 188 314 60%

Elton 349 27 33 82% 322 296 109%

Frodsham 304 37 37 100% 267 236 113%

Greenfields 428 61 62 98% 367 366 100%

Hartford 239 31 33 94% 208 261 80%

Kingsway & Upton 411 47 40 118% 364 324 112%

Lache 343 59 64 92% 284 282 101%

Leftwich 139 14 19 74% 125 146 86%

Malpas, Farndon and Tarvin 408 32 42 76% 376 237 159%

25 Department for Education (2015) Provision for children under five years of age in England: January 2015 26 Ibid 27 The three and four year old birth cohort is estimated from the number of children from the two-year birth cohort who would be eligible for a funded place at the January Spring-term headcount based on a three-term entry policy. 28 Funded places data is taken from Spring Term Headcount (HC) 2016.


Page 32

Neston 254 30 36 83% 224 257 87%

Over 313 53 84 63% 260 264 98%

Parklands 344 60 68 88% 284 329 86%

Portside 366 84 107 79% 282 333 85%

Stanlaw Abbey 303 64 58 110% 239 243 98%

Victoria Road 253 53 60 88% 200 270 74%

Wharton 452 61 98 62% 391 471 83%

Woodlands 276 32 36 89% 244 263 93%

Cheshire West & Chester 6349 897 1097 82% 5452 5760 95%

3.34 The survey of provision in January 2016 found that private and voluntary providers

(including childminders) have a greater share of two and three year olds (95% and

61%). Maintained settings have the greater share of four year olds because the

headcount includes four year olds who started reception class in September 2015 but

turned five after the Spring headcount.

3.35

3.36 Figure 30 shows some disparities between the take-up of funded two-year old places

which by their nature are targeted at low income households and therefore there will

be greater numbers in more deprived areas. The data show that take-up of places is

generally lower in more deprived areas of Cheshire West and Chester with take-up in

the Wharton (62%), Over (63%) and Blacon (66%) areas far lower than the local

authority average of 82% although there is some evidence that this is not just a local

problem29.

Early Education Offer Flexibility / 30 Hour Offer

3.37 Early education providers from the non-maintained sector surveyed in January 2016

were asked how flexible they were in offering the free entitlement across the week and

across the year. Of those providers responding (n=116), day nurseries proved to be

able to offer the most flexible packages with over 90% saying that they were able to

offer almost any combination of the 15 hours of entitlement across the week.

Childminders were also very flexible but pre-schools were less so, often restricted by

their shorter opening hours. Noticeably since 2014/15, providers have become more

flexible in the ways in which they offer the early years entitlement with varying

combinations of sessions and hours to suit parent’s needs. Over 80% of day nurseries

29 Family & Childcare Trust (2015) Investing in Flexible Childcare.


Page 33

and pre-school providers and over 70% of childminders said they were able to offer

flexible packages.

3.38 Non-maintained early-years education providers were also asked about their ability to

offer 30 hours of ‘free childcare’ / early education as set out in the Childcare Bill

(2015). While the fine detail of this offer is still unknown (the final funding formula will

not be known until 2017) providers were asked about their willingness and ability to

consider the proposal.

Figure 31: Willingness of providers to accommodate increased 30 hours offer

Setting Type Maybe No Yes Don’t know

Childminder 50% 14% 0% 36%

Day nursery 31% 5% 62% 3%

Pre-School

Playgroup

25% 13% 58% 4%

Total/Average 32% 9% 49% 9%

3.39 Overall, almost half of all current non-maintained providers said that they could offer

30 hours of funded childcare / early education. Day nurseries were found to have most

commonly considered the proposal and their position, along with just over a half of all

pre-school groups. No childminders were able to categorically say yes, with the

majority being uncertain or requiring more information before making a decision.

3.40 When interviewed, provider reaction to the 30 hour proposal was found to be very

mixed. Amongst day nurseries, some were very enthusiastic and welcomed the

proposals. Others were concerned that they were currently losing money offering 15

hours and 30 hours would worsen their position. A number of providers said that the

combination of low funding along with the increased minimum wage would result in

them having to raise fees or make savings in other areas.

3.41 A number of pre-schools (13%) said categorically that they would not be able to offer

30 hours, mainly due to premises issues. Others – particularly those currently offering

two sessions per day - said that although they would be able to offer 30 hours, it would

mean they would be able to offer places to fewer children.


Page 34

Childcare Costs

3.42 The survey of childcare providers in January 2014 found that they had a range of

services for which they charged differing amounts e.g. by age-group in most day

nurseries; and, furthermore, that there was a range of charging structures e.g. hourly,

daily weekly etc. To ascertain a broad perspective of fees, providers were asked what

and how they charged and then rates were converted to a common unit (an hourly

rate) and then averages calculated to provide a common denominator across all

settings and areas.

3.43 Across all areas and types of setting the average hourly charge for childcare was

found to be £3.65 in January 2016. This was 4% higher than found in 2014 (although

within the sampling margin of error of +/- 4% there may have been no change at all).

The modal average cost (most commonly found) was £4 per hour.

Figure 32: Average price of hourly childcare30

2016 Chester Ellesmere Port Northwich and Winsford Rural Average

Childminder £ 3.58 £ 4.00 £ 3.36 £ 3.20 £ 3.40

Day nursery £ 3.98 £ 3.54 £ 3.80 £ 3.93 £ 3.82

Holiday Scheme £ 3.54 £ - £ 2.86 £ 2.72 £ 3.08

Out of School Care £ 4.53 £ 2.93 £ 3.46 £ 4.26 £ 3.83

Pre-School

Playgroup

£ 3.61 £ 3.39 £ 3.33 £ 3.96 £ 3.55

Grand Total £ 3.93 £ 3.38 £ 3.49 £ 3.78 £ 3.65

3.44 The cost of childminder, day nursery and out of school care does not seem to have

changed since 2010, but Pre-School Playgroups have increased charges from an

average of £3.23 in 2014 to £3.55 in 2016 (+9%). This continues a trend that has been

continuous since 2010, bringing pre-schools into line with the cost of other types of

care.

3.45 The cost of childcare also varied by area with Chester having the most expensive, and

Ellesmere Port the least costly, childcare although relatively, Ellesmere Port saw the

greatest rise in the price of childcare (+7%).

30 Survey of 296 childcare providers in July 2010 by Cheshire West & Chester IASS


Page 35

Figure 33: Average hourly cost of childcare by area (2014-16)

3.46 The cost of childcare in Cheshire West and Chester is in line with regional averages

and Figure 1 shows how, in general, the cost of childcare is fairly uniform across the

Local Authority both by the type of care and the location, although as in 2014/15, an

observable trend is for slightly higher costs in the urban areas.


Page 36

Figure 34: Childcare provision sized by relative costs (2016)


Page 37

Summary: The Supply of Childcare

In January 2016 there were 502 different childcare providers recorded by

Cheshire West and Chester Information, Advice and Support Service. These

were made up of 236 childminders, 79 day nurseries, 8 holiday schemes, 98 out

of school clubs and 81 pre-schools.

There were 43 fewer childcare providers in 2016 than 2014/15 with 38 fewer

childminders, continuing a long trend in the decline of this type of provision.

Counting the number of childcare places available in settings it can be estimated

that there were 12,416 places in January 2016 compared with 12,523 recorded in

2014/15. Again, the trend towards fewer, but larger settings was observed with

the loss of 247 childminder places partially offset by an increase in day nursery,

holiday scheme and out of school places resulting in a net loss of only 106 places

overall.

Comparing the number of childcare places with the most recent estimates of the

population of children suggests that the drop in childcare places reflects a small

fall in the population of children, therefore there are still 23 places for every 100

children aged nought to fourteen as also recorded in 2014/15. By locality, the

Rural Area still has more childcare (30 places per 100 children) compared to the

other areas (20 to 21 places per 100 children).

Data from childcare providers suggests that a third of all children aged nought to

fourteen years use formal childcare on a regular basis in Cheshire West and

Chester. More children use childcare in the Rural Area and in Northwich and

Winsford than in the other localities.

The average hours per day that childcare is available ranges from 10.2 hours in

day nurseries, 9 hours with childminders, 5.6 hours in pre-schools and 3.7 hours

in out of school clubs. By area, childcare in Ellesmere Port has the shortest

average opening hours with the Rural area having the longest hours – perhaps

reflecting longer travel-to-work times.

When examining the availability of childcare for different age groups, it would

seem that the amount of full daycare (in day nurseries and with childminders) for

pre-school children aged nought to four years has increased from 5,677 in

2014/15 to 6,341 places in 2016. Compared to the population there were 35

places for every 100 children aged nought to four years, up from 31.4 in 2014/15.

Sessional care (in 81 pre-schools) mainly delivers funded early education places

in Cheshire West and Chester and provided 2,214 places in 2016 (2,270 in

2014/15).

Out of school childcare in clubs, some day nurseries and with some childminders

provided 4,530 places for children aged five to fourteen years in 2016, down from

4,809 found in 2014/15. Relative to the population, there were on average 12.4


Page 38

out of school places for every 100 children aged five to fourteen years of age

compared with 13.3 places found in 2014/15 with fewer places across all areas.

Early education places are spread widely across the area and across a range of

private, voluntary and maintained providers. It is estimated that 95% of all three

and four year olds are receiving their funded entitlement. While 82% of eligible

two-year olds receive a funded place, this has increased considerably since

2014/15 and is higher than the national average. Nonetheless, take-up of places

by eligible families of two-year olds is lower in deprived areas although this is not

just a problem in Cheshire West and Chester.

Non-maintained providers of funded early education have become more flexible

in the ways in which they offer the entitlement to 15 hours of free provision. Day

nurseries and childminders were found to be the most flexible in offering a variety

of packages to suit parent’s needs. Pre-schools were less able to be flexible,

restricted by shorter opening hours.

Non-maintained early-years education providers were asked about their ability to

offer 30 hours of ‘free childcare’ / early education as set out in the Government’s

Childcare Bill (2015). Overall, almost half of all current non-maintained providers

said that they could offer 30 hours of funded childcare / early education. Day

nurseries were found to have most commonly considered the proposal and their

position, along with just over a half of all pre-school groups. No childminders

were able to categorically say yes, with the majority being uncertain or requiring

more information before making a decision. Problems in offering the increased

offer included funding, sustainability and premises issues.

The cost of childcare in Cheshire West and Chester increased by 4% between

2014/15 and 2016 and is in line with averages for the North West. The average

cost of care is now £3.65 per hour with £4 per hour the most common charge

across settings. Day nurseries are most expensive (average £3.83) and school

holiday schemes are the cheapest form of care (£3.08). By area, Chester has the

most expensive provision (£3.93) and Ellesmere Port is the cheapest area

(£3.38).


Page 39

4. The Demand for Childcare

4.1 To establish sufficiency, an assessment needs to be made of the demand for childcare

by parents that will enable them to remain in, or enter, work. To estimate demand for

childcare, the proportion of vacancies available in settings has been used as the

primary indicator. Where there are high levels of vacancies, there may be low demand.

Alternatively, settings with less than 15% spare capacity are likely to find it difficult to

take many more children. This would indicate the likelihood of unmet demand.

Vacancy Analysis

4.2 Data collected from the sample of childcare providers in Cheshire West and Chester in

January 2016 gives an indication as to the demand for childcare based on the

proportion of vacant places in childcare settings. These are the number of empty full-

time (or full-time equivalent) childcare places set against the number of registered or

recorded places.

4.3 Overall, 63% of childcare providers surveyed had some vacancies (78% in 2014/15).

However, as in 2014/15 only 42% of providers had a full-time vacancy31. More

commonly, providers had vacancies for parts of the day or parts of the week. 51% of

providers had such part-time places available, fewer than the 63% found in 2014/15.

Day Nurseries most commonly had some full-time vacancies (54% had at least one full

time place vacant) followed by out of school clubs (46%) and pre-schools (38%). Only

25% of childminders had a full-time vacancy, although the notion of vacancies is not

always an easy concept for some childminders within a business model that is often

flexible around their own family’s needs.

Figure 35: Proportion of providers with vacancies

Providers with at least one FT

Vacancy

Providers with at least one PT

Vacancy

Childminder 25% 50%

Day nursery 54% 72%

Out of School Care 46% 32%

Pre-School Playgroup 38% 51%

Grand Total 42% 51%

31 A full time place is taken to be a place available every day, all day during usual opening hours


Page 40

4.4 As in 2014/15, providers in the Northwich and Winsford area were most likely to have

vacancies (34%) while Chester childcare settings had the lowest proportion of

providers with vacancies (20%).

4.5 When assessing vacancies against the maximum number of places that childcare

providers could offer, it appears that around 12% of places were vacant in January

2016 and would be available to a parent wanting five days per week of childcare (13%

in 2014/15). Holiday schemes (surveyed during February half-term) had the largest

number of full-time places available with 18% of their available full-time places empty.

For all other provider types the proportion was lower at between 11% and 12% of full-

time places. With most providers offering some flexibility, the proportion of part-time

places (counted as FTE equivalents) amounted to some 6% of the maximum places

available, with childminders having the fewest part-time places free32. At any one time

during the week it can be estimated that between a fifth and a quarter of all childcare

places in Cheshire West and Chester are vacant.

Figure 36: Proportion of childcare places vacant by type (2016)

Vacancies % of places vacant (Full-

time)

% of places vacant (Part-

time)

Childminder 12% 3%

Day nursery 11% 6%

Holiday Scheme 18% 6^

Out of School Care 12% 7%

Pre-School Playgroup 12% 6%

Averages 12% 6%

4.6 There were some differences in vacancy rates across the areas, ranging from just 8%

of full-time vacant places in the Rural Area to 20% in the Ellesmere Port area. This

range is an important factor in assessing demand for services.

Figure 37: Proportion of childcare places vacant by area

Vacancies % of places vacant (Full time) % of places vacant (Part time)

32 Childminders interviewed tended not to focus on filling available ‘places’ but would often work with parents who enquired to find solutions to individual needs. This may therefore, have a bearing on this data.


Page 41

Chester 11% 4%

Ellesmere Port 20% 8%

Northwich and Winsford 14% 5%

Rural 8% 7%

Grand Total 13% 6%

Occupancy

4.7 Taking the proportion of full-time childcare places available that were found not to be

vacant, the average occupancy rate was found to be 88%. Analysis by small areas

(Wards) found that this average varied from 64% in one area to 100% in a number of

areas as shown in Figure 38.

Figure 38: Occupancy of available childcare places (by ward)

Provider confidence

4.8 Childcare providers surveyed were asked about any changes they had observed in the

number of enquiries for their services by parents over the past 12 months. Overall,

47% of providers said that they had received more enquiries compared with 18% who

had received fewer enquiries. Comparing this data with 2014/15, it would seem that


Page 42

demand - as expressed by this indicator – has increased, with more providers

receiving more enquiries. In particular, nearly two-thirds of day nurseries said that they

were receiving more enquiries. Fewer childminders than in 2014/15 said that they were

receiving fewer enquiries which may suggest that market confidence in this fragile

sector is growing.

4.9 By area, more providers in Ellesmere Port reported receiving an increased number of

enquiries for their services than in other areas (56%) but there were also a quarter of

settings in Ellesmere Port reporting fewer enquiries. The childcare market seems most

stable in Chester and the Rural Area with the fewest providers reporting fewer

enquiries and most providers reporting that the number of enquiries has remained the

same.

Figure 39: Changes in Enquiries received by providers over the past 12 months (2016)

4.10 Providers surveyed in January 2016 were also asked to comment on childcare supply

and demand in their area. Overall, their opinions reflected the data that they provided,

but there were a number of additional points that were raised and can be summarised

as follows.

Day Nurseries

4.11 As found in 2014/15, the day nursery sector in Cheshire West and Chester has

weathered the recession and now seems to be increasing in confidence with many

reporting increasing enquiries and subsequently numbers. A number of areas settings

said that they were benefitting directly from new housing developments.

4.12 Relationships with schools were found to be important. On the positive side, some day

nurseries said they benefitted from good relationships with local schools, working

together to develop solutions for parents. Other nurseries – particularly in more

deprived areas such as Ellesmere Port and Winsford – felt that they were in

competition with schools. In these areas the proportion of two-year-olds eligible for a


Page 43

free early education place would be higher, and it was reported that some schools

were opening new early years units to cater for younger children. Some nurseries

reported that parents moved children when pre-school places became available as

many believed – albeit wrongly – that a place at the school itself would follow.

4.13 A small number of respondents to the survey were concerned about costs and the

effect that the increased minimum wage and new employer pension duties would

have. The level of early years grant funding was also said by many nurseries to be

less than the cost of provision.

Pre-School Playgroups

4.14 Consultation with the pre-school sector found a variable picture of demand for their

services. Some were feeling threatened or were planning to close as a result of local

schools increasingly taking younger children – sometimes in specialist units – or new

day nurseries opening or increasing numbers. Pre-schools which offered the least

flexibility or were restricted by premises issues were those found to be most

vulnerable.

4.15 On the other hand, where pre-schools were more pro-active in trying to meet the

needs of parents to provide a more flexible offer they were thriving. Some said that

they had established partnerships with childminders, out of school clubs, schools or

even day nurseries to provide parents with services that they need to match working

hours and had seen numbers increase. Others had extended their own services to

offer more hours including out of school care. The private company S4YC has

opened/taken over four pre-schools in the Ellesmere Port area within the last 18

months as part of its childcare, preschool and sporting activities and the hours dovetail

with its Out of School services to provide wrap around care.

4.16 It would seem likely that there will be further losses of pre-school services in Cheshire

West and Chester over the coming year as the sector adapts to external changes and

changing demand. It is likely that in all but the most rural areas, the traditional pre-

school offering two three-hour sessions per day will become increasingly rare.

Out of School Childcare

4.17 Most Out of School settings offer before and after school care and numbers - in most

cases - seem to be steady. It is unlikely that this will be a growth area and there may

be negative impacts from Government initiatives to increase the length of the school

day through offering a range of activities and from schools increasingly becoming

academies and looking to maximise revenue streams. Notably, however, S4YC offers

wrap around Out of School services in ten school settings in the area in addition to

holiday care - effectively a ‘one-stop-shop’ for parents in both term-time and the

holidays.


Page 44

Childminders

4.18 Consultation with childminders continues to reflect the decline in childminder numbers

in Cheshire West and Chester. As with pre-schools, the most successful providers

seemed to be those that work collaboratively by either teaming up with another

childminder / assistant to offer larger and more flexible service or have formed local

supportive groups and refer parents to each other.

4.19 Where childminders were planning to give up, a number cited the increase in the

paperwork necessary alongside the decline in support from the local authority.


Page 45

Statistical Evidence Analysis

4.20 In bringing together a number of updated socio-economic statistics as set out in

Sections 2 of this report, along with data on vacancies and parental attitudes, a picture

of current childcare demand in each area of Cheshire West and Chester can be built

up. The analysis is based on a number of data sets from which the following

assumptions regarding childcare demand have been made:

Data Set Assumption

Proportion of children in the

population

High proportion of children = High

demand for childcare

Children not living in Poverty High incomes = High demand for

childcare

Children in Lone Parent

Households where parent is

working

High proportion of Working Lone Parent

Households = High demand for

childcare

Households with children where

adults work

High proportion of Working Households

= High demand for childcare

National Childcare Indicator (tax-

credit take-up)

High take-up = High demand for

childcare

Occupancy of existing childcare

provision

High occupancy = High demand for

childcare

4.21 Using these indicators, a picture of potential demand for childcare in each area of

Cheshire West and Chester can be built up. Set against the averages for each data

set, an index score will indicate where demand for childcare should be high or low. By

area, as illustrated in Figure 40 it is clear that demand for childcare is highest in the

Rural area, with least demand in Northwich and Winsford. However, within these areas

there are some significant differences in demand as shown on the map in Figure 41

where the darker areas show where demand for childcare should be highest and

lighter colours where demand is likely to be lowest.

Figure 40: Average demand for childcare index by area (2016)


Page 46

Figure 41: Childcare Demand Index Map (2016)

4.22 Demand for childcare in Cheshire West and Chester is relatively high across most

areas with lower demand related to deprivation or in some instances, rurality and low

numbers of children. A full set of the data used to calculate the Demand Index is

included as Appendix 1.


Page 47

Summary: The Demand for Childcare

An indication of parental demand for childcare can be based on the number of

vacant places in existing childcare settings. Fewer vacant places would indicate

higher demand for different childcare services in specific areas. The survey of

provision in January 2016 found that nearly two-thirds of all providers had some

vacancies but only two-in-five had full-time vacancies that would meet the needs

of a parent working five full-days per week. More commonly, providers had

vacancies for parts of the day or parts of the week although they had fewer than

in 2014/15 indicating an increase in demand for existing places.

Over a half of all day nurseries had at least one full-time place in contrast to just

25% of childminders. Between a third and a half of all other provision had full-

time places available.

As found in 2014/15, providers in the Northwich and Winsford area were most

likely to have vacancies (34%) while Chester childcare settings had the lowest

proportion of providers with vacancies (20%).

At any one time during the week it can be estimated that between a fifth and a

quarter of all childcare places in Cheshire West and Chester are vacant. This

suggests that there is some capacity within the supply of childcare to meet

parents’ needs but choice may be limited in certain areas and for some types of

provision.

The increasing demand suggested by the vacancy data was supported by other

information from childcare providers about the number of enquiries they received.

More providers said they were receiving more enquiries in 2016, while fewer

settings said they were receiving fewer enquiries compared with 2014/15.

Although demand seems strong, the shape of provision is changing and trends

that have been observed over a number of years, such as declines in

childminders and traditional pre-schools, are likely to continue into the future.

In summary, taking into account a range of factors, demand for childcare in

Cheshire West and Chester remains high across most areas with lower demand

related to deprivation or in some instances, rurality and low numbers of children.

There are some indications of increasing demand which may stimulate the

creation of additional places or new settings but the diversity of provision is in

decline.


Page 48

Appendix 1: Demand Index Data

Demand Index is calculated by taking the rank of each value in the data set as a percentage of the

data. This produces the relative standing of each value within the data set with the Demand Index

being the cumulative total of the ranking across all variables.

Childcare occupancy data relates to all childcare provision for children aged nought to fourteen based

on the sample (49%) of providers surveyed in January 2016.

Ward Proportion pf

Children in the

Population (ONS

Population

Estimates 2014)

Children not living in

Poverty (Households

above 60% median

AHC. ONS 2013)

Lone Parents in

employment (ONS

Census 2011)

Households

with children

where adults

work (DWP

2013)

Families in

Work;

National

Childcare

Inidicator

(Tax Credit

Claimants,

2014)

Childcare

Occupancy

Rate

(Survey of

Childcare

Providers

Jan 2016)

Demand

for

childcare

Index

(0=No

demand,

5=Highest

demand)

Blacon 20% 68% 57% 76% 22% 90% 2.37

Boughton 11% 87% 74% 77% 25% 87% 2.69

Chester City 8% 81% 58% 74% 24% 78% 2.11

Chester Villages 17% 96% 76% 74% 23% 89% 4.26

Davenham and Moulton 19% 92% 78% 94% 21% 84% 3.84

Dodleston and Huntington 18% 94% 84% 69% 16% 84% 3.64

Ellesmere Port Town 20% 68% 57% 81% 17% 100% 2.15

Elton 16% 90% 70% 73% 22% 92% 3.22

Farndon 16% 81% 77% 83% 18% 92% 3.08

Frodsham 16% 87% 74% 93% 23% 100% 3.63

Garden Quarter 5% 88% 69% 65% 25% 87% 2.89

Gowy 15% 93% 70% 91% 17% 94% 3.04

Grange 21% 62% 59% 90% 19% 95% 2.39

Great Boughton 17% 95% 85% 80% 21% 93% 4.69

Handbridge Park 14% 90% 77% 82% 21% 91% 3.28

Hartford and Greenbank 16% 90% 67% 91% 20% 83% 2.58

Helsby 15% 95% 79% 93% 19% 100% 3.90

Hoole 16% 90% 70% 76% 22% 97% 3.73

Kingsley 14% 94% 79% 86% 20% 87% 3.76

Lache 20% 72% 57% 87% 18% 89% 2.03

Ledsham and Manor 14% 96% 82% 87% 20% 83% 3.76

Little Neston and Burton 13% 93% 77% 83% 21% 91% 3.44


Page 49

Malpas 14% 88% 63% 94% 18% 75% 1.54

Marbury 16% 91% 66% 91% 17% 72% 2.04

Neston 18% 78% 56% 82% 17% 92% 2.04

Netherpool 18% 75% 54% 79% 20% 77% 1.82

Newton 14% 88% 64% 82% 20% 96% 2.72

Parkgate 11% 93% 76% 85% 9% 90% 2.77

Rossmore 21% 66% 52% 85% 16% 69% 1.25

St Paul’s 18% 78% 65% 78% 22% 84% 2.4

Saughall and Mollington 14% 91% 70% 88% 17% 100% 2.85

Shackerley 15% 89% 77% 83% 20% 89% 3.07

Strawberry 16% 97% 87% 94% 22% 100% 5

Sutton 16% 86% 68% 85% 22% 100% 3.23

Tarporley 16% 95% 80% 80% 16% 92% 3.78

Tarvin and Kelsall 16% 94% 81% 83% 18% 65% 3.43

Tattenhall 16% 93% 83% 86% 14% 94% 3.99

Upton 19% 90% 73% 86% 25% 88% 3.74

Weaver and Cuddington 16% 87% 75% 86% 20% 100% 3.29

Whitby 15% 95% 77% 82% 19% 67% 2.97

Willaston and Thornton 13% 96% 76% 82% 19% 92% 3.54

Winnington and Castle 18% 83% 59% 94% 19% 77% 2.07

Winsford Over and Verdin 20% 73% 57% 88% 15% 87% 1.53

Winsford Swanlow and Dene 17% 78% 64% 84% 15% 94% 2.21

Winsford Wharton 19% 76% 61% 90% 18% 91% 2.39

Witton and Rudheath 17% 80% 59% 94% 14% 85% 1.61


Page 50

Appendix 2: Childcare and early years provision by locality

Northwich and Winsford Area

Ellesmere Port Area


Page 51

Chester Area

Rural Area

sefton childcare sufficiency assessment 2007 · accurate measurement of change over the past year...

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