Seed Planning Basics

Dave Kolotelo

Seed Planning Inputs• Sowing Guidelines

• Review input variables• Seed Efficiency• Seed Pricing• Big Picture simplicity• Seed Planning Zone complications• Variables to Consider• Seedlot Selection

Sowing GuidelinesGuidelines• SPAR default method of calculating Potential seedlings

• Amount of seed• Seeds per gram • Seeds per seedling (from a table based on 2% GC results)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

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3.5

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5.0

100-

99

98-9

7

96-9

5

94-9

3

92-9

1

90-8

9

88-8

7

86-8

5

84-8

3

82-8

1

80-7

9

78-7

7

76-7

5

74-7

3

72-7

1

70-6

9

Germination Capacity (%)

See

ds p

er S

eedl

ing

2007 non-Pli=20012007 Pli

GerminationCapacity (%)

SowingFactor

Correction(Oversow)

Factor

NurseryHandling

Factor

SeedsSupplied Per

Seedling100-99 1.2 1.25 0.20 1.7698-97 1.4 1.27 0.20 1.9196-95 1.6 1.27 0.20 2.1894-93 1.7 1.28 0.20 2.4292-91 1.9 1.27 0.20 2.5690-89 2.0 1.26 0.20 2.78

•2007 Adjustments for Pli• Improved ease to adjust grams•Encourage gram adjustments (only order what you will sow!)

Guidelines are not different for “A” and “B”class seed

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hti/spar/2007_sowing_guidelines.htm

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12.00

100 97 94 91 88 85 82 79 76 73 70 67 64 61 58 55 52 49 46 43 40 37 34 31 28 25

Germination Capacity (%)

# Se

eds

per S

eedl

ing

Req

uest

ed

2001

1999

1996

1996, 1999 and 2001 Comparison

•1996 stepwise allotment streamlined•introduced fractional sowing factors•refined changes in GC (2% vs. 5%)•refined changes in oversow (1% vs. 5%)•refined changes in sowing factor (0.1 vs. 1.0)

How do the Sowing Guidelines Work?• You need to know

• Weight of seed or seedlings desired• seeds per gram (SPG) of seedlot• germination capacity (GC) of seedlot

• Obtain seeds supplied per seedling from Table 1 • Insert into the following equation

• grams= # seedlings needed * Seeds/seedlingSeeds per Gram

• 50 000 seedlings GC = 96% SPG = 509• from Table 1 we determine that 2.18 seeds are supplied per

seedling.

• grams= 50 000 * 2.18 = 214.1 grams509

SPAR will round up to nearest gram = 215

GerminationCapacity (%)

SowingFactor

Correction(Oversow)

Factor

NurseryHandlingFactor

SeedsSupplied Per

Seedling100-99 1.2 1.25 0.20 1.7698-97 1.4 1.27 0.20 1.9196-95 1.6 1.27 0.20 2.1894-93 1.7 1.28 0.20 2.4292-91 1.9 1.27 0.20 2.5690-89 2.0 1.26 0.20 2.78

Seed Size• Seeds per gram is not considered

in seed pricing• Do people consider SPG

(all else equal)?

• Is there good evidence to indicate larger seeds –

• Increase sowing efficiency • Germinate ‘better’

• Seed size only explains 3.7% of the variation in germination capacity

• Seed size only explains 4.6 % of variability in germination rate

• Result in higher # recoverable seedlings ? Fdc NO - ???

• Is there any cost advantage?

156951# lots

458309Max

216213Min

338251Ave.

BAPLI

Seed Cost of an Average SRQ

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A B

$ pe

r Ave

rage

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ing

Req

uest

Ave.MinMax

$2724

$$1074

Seed Efficiency

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Production Year

Gai

ns in

Effi

cien

cy

(Mill

ions

of S

eedl

ings

) ALLPLI

• Efficiency measured as difference between requested and calculated

• calculated is based on gram adjustments (savings)• How much seed we save (in terms of potential seedlings)

• 2007 Pli 125 M requested – 107 M calculated =18 M saved

Thank you to everyone who reduced grams, but more important reduced the amount of returned seed

We do not want We do not want to reduce to reduce seedling seedling production!production!

We want to We want to increase seed increase seed efficiency efficiency (order (order only seed you will only seed you will sow!)sow!)

Seed Pricing• Seed owned by the MFR and identified as SURPLUS

on SPAR is sold according to the following price scheduleMinistry Surplus Seed Price Schedulehttp://www.for.gov.bc.ca/TIP/publications/updates/vol2no1.pdf

• details the pricing structure for Ministry-owned tree seed• Privately owned seed can be sold at any price, some follow the

Ministry prices, some don’t • MFR price list also provides price reduction

% of seedlot Pli i.e 88/93*1482 = $1402Species average %

0

1000

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6000

7000

75 80 85 90 95 100

Germination Capacity (%)

$ pe

r Kg A

B

Seed Supply +Demand – BIG Picture• Potential Trees - 5 Year average (2003-2007) 21/3/07

Sowing Request Totals (2003-2007)

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25

50

75

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125

150

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Pote

ntia

l Tr

ees

(Mill

ions

)

PLI SX FDI LW

Pli – 118 M = 18 years

Sx – 75 M = 44 years

Fdi – 16 M = 16 years

Lw – 7 M = 16 years

Overall 27 years

Pli correction ?

Demand UncertaintiesMPB further AAC increases ?Species selection choices ? Stocking levels ? Degree of reliance on natural regeneration ?Wildfires – new/increased pest problems Climate Change

Demand Uncertainties• Looking to the Past ??? New Game

Potential Trees Requested (Millions) 1993-2007

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140

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2007

oten

tial T

rees

(Mill

ions

)

PLI SX FDI LW

Sensitivity analysis – predicting range of outcomes

MPB Seed Analysis - PliBase Case

Assumptions•Only B-seed = 98.5% of Pli inventory•Seedlots w/multiple SPZ divided equally (B+ & others)•2004-2006 Pli average request by SPZ used as demand •Inventory based on August 26•Inventory /demand results in estimates of years supply

Does not represent availability92% Pli seed “Reserved”

Base case is based on Inventory demand+20% and+40% increase in demand scenarios

Years supply colour coded by SPZ>20 years supply10 to 20 years supply<10 years supply

+20% +40%

B+ Seed Transfer Advantage

Nechako River example – BLK, CP, MGR,MRB, NCH, QL

SPZ Complications

Natural Stand SPZ (all species) Orchard Seed SPZ (Pli – sp. Specific)

Overlap zones

Administrative

Science-Based

How to deal with SPZ issue?• SPU Demand (Sowing Requests) are assigned to both Natural and

Orchard SPZ• Can summarize Potential trees either way• Natural SPZ = Total provincial coverage• Orchard SPZ = Area under orchard coverage

• Same total trees two different lenses

• Three regressive lenses• Inventory of A-class seed by SPU• Expected orchard production by SPU 2007-2030 [FGC]• Inventory of B-class seed by natural stand SPZ

• BC interior - No surprises• Sx, Lw –lots of surplus A class seed GW↑• Fdi – orchards starting / GW ↑ ↑ / • Pli – orchard production issues

• LARGE current investments• LARGE natural stand inventories (TOA exception)

Sowing Request Totals (2003-2007)

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100

125

150

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Pote

ntia

l Tr

ees

(Mill

ions

)

PLI SX FDI LW

MPB Seed Planning Bulletins

Supply – Genetic Considerations

61.0%0.0%83.6%0.2%% A SURPLUS

34%28%30%17%GW MAX

12.923.115.57.3GW wt. POT

4.5%25.8%7.6%7.6%% ZND

14.619.812.79.2GW ave.

70.010.182.212.2% A Seed Use- 07

70.93.678.410.6% A seed Use-5Yr

30.6%0.2%9.0%1.2%% A-seed inventory

300.625019Pot. > GW 5

340.629524Pot. Trees M

16910371# Seedlots

LWFDISXPLI

Pli Orchard Production and Gain

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ings

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SeedlingsGW