security planning and transformation arthur k. cebrowski director, force transformation 14 september...
TRANSCRIPT
Security Planning and Transformation
Security Planning and Transformation
Arthur K. CebrowskiDirector, Force Transformation14 September 2004
Arthur K. CebrowskiDirector, Force Transformation14 September 2004
• Institutionalizing Transformation• Achieving Balance• The Future Force
• Institutionalizing Transformation• Achieving Balance• The Future Force
Office of Force Transformation
Strategic Transformation Appraisal … The TPG Process in Action
StrategicPlanningGuidance
FY2006 - FY2011
JOINTOPERATIONSCONCEPTS
November 2003
MajorCombat
Operations
Joint Operating Concept
StabilityOperations
Joint Operating Concept
StrategicDeterrence
Joint Operating Concept
HomelandDefense
Joint Operating Concept
JointTransformation
Roadmap
2003
ArmyTransformation
Roadmap
2003
NavalTransformation
Roadmap
2003
Air Force Air Force Transformation Transformation
Flight PlanFlight Plan
20032003
Strategic Transformation Appraisal
Office of Force Transformation
Continuing process
Creating / anticipating the future
Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations and technology
New competitive areas / competencies; revalued attributes
Fundamental shifts in underlying principles
New sources of power
Changing behavior – values, attitudes, beliefs
Broad Findings … Elements of Transformation
Office of Force Transformation
National Security is more than defense• More than responsive and punitive preventative
• More than stopping something keeping the world system up and running
• More than the “big one” the whole spectrum of military competition
• Homeland security defense in depth
• Increasing globalization and national security transaction rates compel increased internationalization and civilianization of defense
Broad Findings … Transforming the Role of Defense
Office of Force Transformation
Broad Findings … Transforming the Force
Last year … New this year … • More expeditionary • Lighter, more agile, easily deployable
units
• More networked • Knowledge-enabled warfare
• Designed to leverage the exterior positions
• Sustain on-call, global precision strike
• Leverage increasingly persistent ISR
• Persistent engagement
• Tighter sensor-shooter timelines • Improved horizontal intel distribution
• Value information superiority • Demand-centered intelligence
• Joint interoperability at the operational level
• Jointness to the tactical level
• Emphasized unmanned capabilities • Substitution of capital for labor
Office of Force Transformation
Broad Findings…Transforming the Way of War
What’s Valued … • Networking
• Sensing
• Envelope management
• Speed & maneuverability
• Numbers
• Risk tolerance
• Staying power
New this year …
Increasing the “speed of command” of a networked, distributed force contributes to more rapid force projection and engagement– High transaction rates
– Increased information rate and volume
– Increased complexity and scale of operations
– Tolerance for ambiguity and unpredictable demand
Duration
Inte
nsi
ty
Alter InitialConditions
Office of Force Transformation
IrregularErode our power: Unconventional methods adopted and employed by non-state and state actors to counter stronger state opponents. (e.g., terrorism, insurgency, civil war and emerging concepts like “unrestricted warfare”)
Likelihood: very high; strategy of the weakVulnerability: moderate, if not effectively checked
TraditionalChallenge our power: States employing legacy and advanced military capabilities and recognizable military forces, in long-established, well-known forms of military competition and conflict. (e.g., conventional air, sea, land forces and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers)
Likelihood: decreasing (absent preemption) due to historic capability-overmatch and expanding qualitative leadVulnerability: low, only if transformation is balanced
Security Environment … Four Challenges
Lower
Lower
Higher
Higher
LIKELIHOOD
VU
LN
ER
AB
ILIT
Y
CatastrophicParalyze our power: Acquisition, possession and possible employment of WMD or methods producing WMD-like effects against vulnerable, high-profile targets by terrorists and rogue states. (e.g., homeland missile attack, proliferation from a state to a non-state actor, devastating WMD attack on ally)
Likelihood: moderate and increasingVulnerability: unacceptable; single event could alter U.S. way of life
DisruptiveMarginalize our power: International competitors developing & possessing breakthrough technical capabilities intended to supplant U.S. advantages in particular operational domains. (e.g., sensors, information, biological or cyber warfare, ultra miniaturization, space, directed-energy, etc)
Likelihood: low, but time works against U.S.Vulnerability: unknown; strategic surprise puts U.S. security at risk
Office of Force Transformation
Total Force Balance… Security = All Else + Defense
The Close Fight:Decisive OperationsLandLittoralsLow Altitude
Winning / Maintaining the PeaceSocial Intelligence
All Sources of Power
Winning the Battle / CombatMilitary Intelligence
Combat Power
Maximum ComplexityMaximum ComplexityH
egem
onic
Str
ateg
ies
Heg
emon
ic S
trat
egie
s
Den
ial
Str
ateg
ies
Den
ial
Str
ateg
ies
Win
nin
g th
e W
ar
Global Stability Local Stability
Domain of Cooperative Engagement
Domain of Strategic Primacy
Domain of Political Victory
Domain of Military Victory
The Commons:The Strategic ImperativeHigh Seas & Air AboveSpaceCyberspace
Office of Force Transformation
Total Force Balance… Security = All Else + Defense
Winning / Maintaining the PeaceSocial IntelligenceAll areas of power
Winning the Battle / CombatMilitary Intelligence
Combat Power
Maximum ComplexityMaximum ComplexityH
egem
onic
Str
ateg
ies
Heg
emon
ic S
trat
egie
s
Den
ial
Str
ateg
ies
Den
ial
Str
ateg
ies
Win
nin
g th
e W
ar
Global Stability Local Stability
Domain of Cooperative Engagement
Domain of Strategic Primacy
Domain of Political Victory
Domain of Military Victory
Technology Sharing / Transfer
Economic Access / Trade
Technology InsertionEconomic Construction
Economic DominanceTechnology Dominance
Economic DestructionTechnology Denial
The Close Fight:Decisive OperationsLandLittoralsLow Altitude
The Commons:The Strategic ImperativeHigh Seas & Air AboveSpaceCyberspace
Office of Force Transformation
Total Force Balance… Security = All Else + Defense
Winning / Maintaining the PeaceSocial Intelligence
Political Power
Domain of Cooperative Engagement
Domain of Strategic Primacy
Domain of Political Victory
Domain of Military Victory
Winning the Battle / CombatMilitary Intelligence
Combat Power
Global Deployment PatternsStrategic Posture
Deter ForwardAllied Interoperability
Assuring AlliesStrategic Influence
StabilizationReconstructionPolitical Access
Strategic PowerSpace Superiority
Information SuperiorityDissuade Competition
Power ProjectionProtectionCombat Access
Maximum ComplexityMaximum ComplexityH
egem
onic
Str
ateg
ies
Heg
emon
ic S
trat
egie
s
Den
ial
Str
ateg
ies
Den
ial
Str
ateg
ies
Win
nin
g th
e W
ar
Global Stability Local Stability
The Close Fight:Decisive OperationsLandLittoralsLow Altitude
The Commons:The Strategic ImperativeHigh Seas & Air AboveSpaceCyberspace
Office of Force Transformation
Trends in Security Competition
• Short Cycle Time• New Competencies• Adaptive Planning • Coherently Joint • Interdependent
Information Age
• Developed Rules• Mature Markets• Narrowing Customer Base• Security = Defense
Globalization II(1947 – 199X)
• Emerging Rules• Market Opportunities• New Customer Base Emerging• Security = All Else + Defense
Globalization III(199X – 20XX)
• Long Cycle Time• Well Developed Tools / Processes• Deliberate Planning• Deconflicted Joint• Tortured Interoperability
Industrial Age
Office of Force Transformation
Strategic Posture/BalanceForces forwardDeploy from home Allies
Operational Maneuver
From forward garrison From the seaFrom strategic distances
Deter Forward2d derivative forceSustaining forceConstabulary/Nation-building force
Forces Forward(Garrison Forward)(Sea-based)(Hubs)
Strategic DeployFrom Home
(Reactive)
Alliances
Strategic Distances(CONUS and Hubs)
Sea GarrisonForward
Security System Balance? … Major Movements
Office of Force Transformation
FunctioningFunctioning
FunctioningFunctioning
Functioning
Functioning
FunctioningFunctioning
Functioning
Mostly Non-Integrating Gap
Evac’s Peace/Relief Contingency Positioning Show of Force Combat
U.S. Military Responses to Situations, 1990-2002
Strategic Posture … Exporting security
The Red Zone… …Our Response
Office of Force Transformation
Top Level Issues … Culture: Values, Beliefs, Attitudes
Event Focused Continuous
Punitive Preventative
Access to Battlespace Access to Political Victory
Citizen SoldierVolunteer (Recruited) Force Professional
Warrior + Enforcer + “Systems Administrator”
Projecting Power Exporting Security
Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle}
Office of Force Transformation
Global Trends and Implications of Exporting Security
Policy choices:• Engagement
policy• Culture &
organizations• Substitution of
capital for labor • Increased
civilian component
• Increased international component
Office of Force Transformation
Transactions vs Resources
TRANSACTIONS
RESOURCES
TIMEt1 t2
Anticipating Perfectly Predictable Surprises
t3
Office of Force Transformation
The Collection – Analysis Gap … Managing the inevitable
Policy Choices:• Automate Triage• Automate Analysis • We all become analysts
Policy Choices:• Automate Triage• Automate Analysis • We all become analysts
Office of Force Transformation
The Advance to Baghdad
1. Rate of Advance outruns logistics communications and transportation
2. Logisticians shift to “push” system – use models, SitReps, to “sense” supply needs
3. Tactical Units shift to cross-supply to fill gaps
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
03-20-03 03-22-03 03-24-03 03-26-03 03-28-03 03-30-03 1/4/2003 3/4/2003 5/4/2003
Mil
es t
o B
agh
dad
Day of Conflict
Office of Force Transformation
Transforming Defense … Corporate Strategy
Part I: Continuous small steps
Part II: Many exploratory jumps
Part III: A few big bets
Big Bets We Are Making• Joint network-centric warfareJoint network-centric warfare
• Directed energyDirected energy
• Seabasing => Joint OMFTSSeabasing => Joint OMFTS
• Demand-centered intelligenceDemand-centered intelligence
Big Bets We Have Not Made … Yet• Joint seamless machine-to-machine integration
• Joint re-directed energy
• Demand-centered logistics
• Tactically responsive space
“If you are not making big bets you are a fixed strategic target at risk.”
Office of Force Transformation
Identify Issues of Regret … Candidates for Action Now
Warfare Elements• Fire – non-lethals, directed energy, redirected energy• Maneuver – seabasing, vertical battlefield, lift for operational maneuver• Protection – urban operations, “biomedical countermeasures” cycle time• C2&C – joint interdependency vs. interoperability• ISR – demand-centered intelligence, tactically responsive space• Logistics – joint demand-centered logistics
Risk Management (creating on-ramps)• Joint S&T – broaden the capabilities base, create generational depth• Joint concept development & experimentation – short cycle time / rapid
iteration, concept-based / technology-enabled• Joint training – live / virtual / constructive / distributed• People – culture and organizations
Office of Force Transformation
Approaches to Logistics
Prime Metric: Days of Supply
Prime Metric: Flow Time
Prime Metric: Speed / Quality of Effects
Mass-Based
More is better Mountains of stuff measured
in days of supply Uses massive inventory to
hedge against uncertainty in demand and supply
Mass begets mass and slows everything down
Sense and RespondJust-in-Time
Adaptive is better Inventory is dynamically
positioned throughout Uses transportation
flexibility and robust IT to handle uncertainty
Supports distributed, adaptive ops
On-time is better Inventory is reduced to a
minimum and kept moving Uses precise demand prediction
& static optimization to purge uncertainty
Works great, except when it doesn’t
Network-Centric Warfare
Global Information
Grid
Office of Force Transformation
What’s the Behavior Telling Us?
“ “Predictive, optimized, linear supply chain”Predictive, optimized, linear supply chain”
Current Logistics ConceptsCurrent Logistics Concepts(Predominant Approach)(Predominant Approach)
““Adaptive, responsive demand networks”Adaptive, responsive demand networks”
Sense & Respond LogisticsSense & Respond Logistics(Predominant Approach)(Predominant Approach)
Sources of Stuff(Theater, CONUS, etc)
Joint Force Capabilities
Packages
Army Stuff
Navy Stuff
USAF Stuff
USMC Stuff
Common Stuff
Other Stuff
Distributed Operations
““TraditionalC2”TraditionalC2” ““Context & Context & Coordination”Coordination”
Transition from Transition from linear supply chain linear supply chain to adaptive demand to adaptive demand
networknetwork
Office of Force Transformation
• Rebalance focus from “Traditional” to “Irregular,” “Catastrophic” and “Disruptive” challenges
• Adopt cost as a strategy – Both cost of war and program costs
– Create cost-suppressing strategies
– Transform non-discretionary areas
– Address cost imposing strategies against our adversaries
• Transform management of key functions– Realign information activities management under CIO
– Achieve demand-centered joint intelligence
– Organize joint logistics around the battlefield, not around the supplier
– Make generational S&T integral to the defense strategy
Recommendations
Office of Force Transformation
Strategic Approach to Cost
The Need:
Since this is the age of the small, fast and many, we need organizations, processes and a strategic approach to cost capable of delivering the requisite capabilities.
An Approach:
– Strategies for divestiture and devolution of capabilities
– Suppressing the monetary cost of war
– Cost imposing strategies
– Mitigation of cost imposing strategies
– Reversing the current trend of paying more for decreasing returns
New metrics create opportunities for new cost dynamics!
Office of Force Transformation
Key Elements:• Decrease operational costs• Achieve better ROI for less• Broaden the capabilities base• Create and preserve future options• Manage divestiture• Transform non-discretionary areas• Impose cost to adversary• Develop counter-cost imposing strategies
Strategic Approach to Cost
New metrics create opportunities for new cost dynamics!
Office of Force Transformation
Budget Strategy
• Fixed Metrics
• Reduce Total Expenditures
• Decreasing ROI
• Greatest margin / transaction
• Reduce transactions to reduce cost
Strategic Approach to Cost
Cost Strategy
• Flexible metrics
• Reduce individual entity cost
• Increasing ROI
• Greatest number of transactions with positive margin
• Maximize transactions proportional to entity cost
Office of Force Transformation
Operationally Responsive Space Experiment
TACSAT 11969
2 stories high9 ft in Diameter
TACSAT 12003
20” high41” in Diameter
• Design, build and launch operationally relevant satellite in less than 1 year
• Less than $15M including launch
Office of Force Transformation
Global UtilitiesOperational Needs
Cost
Mission Criticality
Risk
Capability
Complexity
Requirements
Centralized Control
Classification
Competing Users
Launch Challenges
National
National Strategic TacticalOperational
Office of Force Transformation
Demand Driven
Military Capability
Autonomous
Networked
Decentralized Control
Reduced Classification
Broadened User Base
Decreased Cycle Times
Risk Tolerant
Operational
NationalStrategicTactical Operational
Military Space“Demand Driven”
Office of Force Transformation
Relay Mirror System …The Killer App for HELs
• Attributes of an HEL-Relay Mirror SystemAttributes of an HEL-Relay Mirror System– Extended range of engagement for air, land and sea-based systemsExtended range of engagement for air, land and sea-based systems
– Improved engagement timelineImproved engagement timeline
– Increased field of regardIncreased field of regard
– Improved battlefield standoff for manned systemsImproved battlefield standoff for manned systems
• Low cost force multiplierLow cost force multiplier– High Altitude Airship-based Relay Mirror Systems offer early operational High Altitude Airship-based Relay Mirror Systems offer early operational
capability for high value missionscapability for high value missions
Office of Force Transformation
Re-Directed Energy
• Objective:– Re-direct laser energy beyond line-of-sight (BLOS) via airborne relay mirror system
– Build an experimental system compatible with the High Altitude Airship (HAA) ACTD that creates a technical means to provide indirect laser propagation geometries
• Unarticulated Need:– Over horizon active defense, communication and sensing
Re-Direct laser energy to over-the-horizon objectives i.e. cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, aircraft, artillery, and ground targets
Re-Direct laser energy to operational nodes within the optical communications footprint Direct line image relay without optical to electronic conversion
• Approach:– The FY05 rapid field experiments will determine the operational viability and
prepare a functional surrogate to accurately redirect laser energy through the ARMS payload suspended from a crane.
– In FY06 the system will be upgraded to include light weight components and higher power levels for operational effects and conduct concept-driven operational experimentation onboard a persistent low altitude airborne platform High-risk components and subsystems experiments will be performed A functional surrogate will be configured for the prospective HAA ACTD
Office of Force Transformation
Operational Maneuver From the SeaAdvanced Intermodal Mobility (AIM)
Office of Force Transformation
Shallow Draft / High-Speed Sealift 6000 - 8700 nm, 60-100 knots, 5000 ton payload
• Tactically Survivable: Agile maneuverability … speed / angles• Carbon fiber/ Kevlar strength, inherent multi-dimensional stealth &
networked defense
• Operationally Feasible: Modular missions … rapid reconfiguration• Electronic keel and support service standards & protocols, mission-oriented
mobility systems, reconfigurable payloads
• Strategically Viable: Adaptable mobility … speed of response• High Payload-fractions, sustained tempo / reduce foot print ashore
Office of Force Transformation
• Cultural barriers– Speed of understanding vs speed of doctrine
Cognitive interoperability and exploitation of shared awareness
– Values, attitudes and beliefs
• Physical barriers– Speed of mass (lift and mobility)– Speed of information (connectivity & interoperability)
• Fiscal barriers– Willingness and ability to devalue and devolve– Discretionary versus non-discretionary
• Process barriers– Transformation of the management of defense (not addressed)
Key Barriers to Transformation … challenges for the Department
Office of Force Transformation
Key Barriers to Transformation … Example of a Cultural Change
• Large indivisible units
• Transformation for the future (a destination)
• Independence
• Transformation for a few
• Smaller, modular, multi-functional units
• Transformation as a change today (a journey)
• Interdependence
• Transformation for everyone
Cultural change is a matter of leadership
Office of Force Transformation
Indicators of Cultural Change … Within the next 10 years
… some adversaries will likely have the ability to use long-range precision strike weapons such as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use of fixed military infrastructure, such as ports, airfields and logistical sites.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per
cen
t of
Res
pon
dan
ts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2000“Officer Attitudes Toward Innovation,” Thomas G. Mahnken and James Fitzsimmons Naval War College, 2002
Strongly Disagree Unsure Strongly Agree
Office of Force Transformation
Indicators of Cultural Change … Within the next 10 years
… some adversaries will likely have the ability to use long-range precision strike weapons such as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use of fixed military infrastructure, such as ports, airfields and logistical sites.
20022000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per
cen
t of
Res
pon
dan
ts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7“The Limits of Transformation: Officer Attitudes toward the RMA,” Thomas G. Mahnken and James Fitzsimmons, NWC, 2003
Strongly Disagree Unsure Strongly Agree
Office of Force Transformation
Elements of Transformation
Continuing process
Creating / anticipating the future
Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations and technology
New competitive areas / competencies and revalued attributes
Fundamental shifts in underlying principles
New sources of power
Changing values, attitudes, beliefs
Office of Force Transformation
TransformationDown at the grange they’re teachin’ a new way of plowin’ Ya’ goin’?
Nope!I already don’t plow as good as I know how ...
www.oft.osd.mil
Office of Force Transformation
Q & A