security and economic development in se asia
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Security and Economic Development in SE Asia. Creating a “ win-win“ situation for the Czech Republic. Growth Drivers in SE Asia. Export-led industrialisation Growing consumer base and middle class Integration into global supply chains Progression up the value chains - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Security and Economic Development in SE Asia
Creating a “win-win“ situation for the Czech Republic
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Growth Drivers in SE Asia
• Export-led industrialisation
• Growing consumer base and middle class
• Integration into global supply chains
• Progression up the value chains
• High levels of social cohesion + stability due to long history of complex socioeconomic structures, now on the eve of entering the age of modernity
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Status Quo of the Political-Economic Order
• Malaysia: several decades of export-led growth, now a Middle Income economy undergoing sociopolitical modernisation, elites have formed own capital base, now a major overseas investor in SE Asia and Africa. Alongside Turkey, one of the few Muslim-majority countries with a diversified and modern economy.
• Singapore: City-state with First World living standards, major wealth centre and reginal financial hub, fully-integrated into global trading patterns, major overseas investor through SWFs Temasek and GIC, strategically-positioned as gateway between East Asia and the West
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Status Quo of the Political-Economic Order
• Thailand: Export-led industrialisation, “Detroit“ of SE Asia, Middle Income country undergoing political-economic transition from old order.
• Indonesia: Undergoing transition from political-economic order based on Cold War-era US patronage. Economy characterised by opening up of the provinces. Large, resilient domestic consumer market, own manufacturing base, major resource wealth.
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Status Quo of the Political-Economic Order
• Philippines: Major domestic consumer base, strategically located between SE Asia, Greater China and NE Asia.
• Vietnam: Early stages of elite capital formation, large consumer market, similar situation to 1950s/1960s Malaysia/Singapore or 1970s Indonesia.
• Cambodia: Early stages of elite capital formation, significant oil reserves, Mekong basin.
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2009 in Historical Perspective
• Aftermath of the “Credit Crunch”
• Accelerated rebalancing of world’s wealth and power away from the West
• Declining Western Credibility
• Rise of New Players
A time of risk and opportunity
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2009 in Historical Perspective
• Confluence of commodity price, economic and political cycles resulting in a weakening of the existing world political-economic order.
Weakened: those over-reliant on financial markets as a source of capital (Iceland, Anglo-Saxon consumers, Hungary, Dubai, Russian oligarchic class) and those reliant on high commodity prices (eg. petro-state governments of Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria)
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2009 in Historical Perspective
• The end of an exclusively Western-dominated world order. Post-WWII collapse of European empires saw Japan join the world’s leading nations. Now room must be made for China, India, Brazil, SE Asia. To a certain extent this is reflected in creation of G20.
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2009 in Historical Perspective
• Those who built their fortunes on not-so-stable foundations must cede their power, influence and assets to those with hard assets.
• Those with capital are securing long-term access to energy and raw materials.
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2009 in Historical Perspective
Chinalco Rio Tinto takeover bid
Shell - $3bn loan to Nigerian govt
China Russia oil-for-loans
IOCs more favourable terms in Iraq
Temasek/GIC Western financial institutions
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“There is no such thing as society…”
“There are individual men and women, and there are families.”
Margaret Thatcher, 1987
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Infrastructural, Legal and Financial Barriers to Growth in SE Asia
• Transport infrastructure bottlenecks: airports, ports, highways, railways need upgrading and interconnections, reorientation towards emerging regional market.
• Energy bottlenecks: interconnecting of electricity grids, creation of regional markets in natural gas
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Infrastructural, Legal and Financial Barriers to Growth in SE Asia
• Absence of strategic leadership and vision among SE Asian national elites as well as among external partners.
• Need for a new framework to replace the Cold War-era hub-and-spoke policy of the US, Japan and other major powers.
• Security and stability as the foundations of prosperity. Managing risks in a systematic manner.
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Infrastructural, Legal and Financial Barriers to Growth in SE Asia
• Need for planning a new strategic framework that addresses SE Asia’s position in the 21st Century.
• New macro-level infrastructure, natural resources management needed to build regional resilience.
• Examples of post-WWII Europe ECSC-EU, 1990s EU/NATO eastward expansion
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Infrastructural, Legal and Financial Barriers to Growth in SE Asia
• New strategic bargain needed among SE Asian elites.
• Linkages between access to resources and capital, conflict and benefits.
• Region needs to be analysed through the inter-SEDE model (Security, Economic Development, Environment), its key drivers, and implications for benefit-sharing among members of the political-economic order.
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что делать ?
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The Challenge: Creating a Win-Win situation for the Czech Republic
• A coherent and coordinated engagement that takes into consideration the political, economic, and security realms.
• Examples of France, Japan, China, Singapore foreign policy + trade coordination.
-China-Africa partnership-la Francafrique-Singapore in Indochina
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Conclusion: Creating a Win-Win situation for the Czech Republic
• Czech Assets include:
-comparative advantage in goods and services, esp. engineering expertise
-comparative advantage for inter-elite exchange: a relevant historical, intellectual and cultural experience
-absence of ulterior motives
-CZ as gateway to Europe
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Possible Frameworks for Engagement
• Status Quo
• Hub-and-spoke
• Regional Forum
• Ad-hoc, issue-based partnerships
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Thank you
William K.P. Kucera
T: +420 773 134 969 / +65 9860 7215E: [email protected]
Candidate for LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee
www.cepmlp.org
Associated Consultant,Mott MacDonald Prahawww.mottmac.cz