seb’s swedish residential mortgage lending stockholm and covered bonds november 16, 2012 · 2014....
TRANSCRIPT
SEB’s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending
and Covered Bonds
More information: www.sebgroup.com / investor relations
Stockholm
November 16, 2012
2
Risk Management
Status of Swedish Residential Mortgage Market
Household Mortgage Lending in focus
SEB’s total Credit Portfolio
Content
Cover Pool, Covered Bonds and Funding Strategy
SEB’s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending and Strategy going forward
Johan AnderssonStatus of Swedish Residential Mortgage Market:
Household Mortgage Lending in focus
4
House prices (index 1992=100) Important factors for Swedish market
Household debt as % of disposable income Household debt as % of GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
-92 -93 -94 -95 -96 -97 -98 -99 -00 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12
UK Denmark Spain Germany
Netherlands Norway USA Sweden
Source: Reuters EcoWin
• Reduced subsidies at the beginning of the 1990s caused a
decline in residential construction which eventually led to an
upward pressure on equilibrium price levels
• Structural lack of supply in particular in the larger cities
• Abolition of residential real estate and wealth tax in the mid-
2000s
• Low debt servicing costs
• Interest costs deductible to 30% (20% on amount above SEK
100th)
Price development and Household indebtedness
Sweden = green line
A steady and sustained increase in Swedish house prices
Sweden = red line Sweden = red line
Swedish household indebtedness lower than in many other countries
5
Swedish house price update, 30 Oct 2012
Source: Sweden statistics
Lending growth to Swedish Households
Current market development
Dampened price development and a downward sloping trend of lending growth to households
Total 1m 3m 12m
Sweden -1.7% 0.0% 2.9%
Tenant rights
Sweden 0.1% 0.6% 6.3%
Stockholm 0.4% 0.8% 7.6%
Göteborg -0.1% 2.3% 9.5%
Malmö -1.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Middle-size cities -0.1% -0.3% 4.8%
Single-family homes
Sweden -2.5% -0.3% 0.9%
Stockholm -0.8% -0.4% 2.0%
Göteborg -1.7% 1.4% 2.6%
Malmö -3.1% -1.3% -1.9%
Middle-size cities -3.9% -0.7% 0.0%
Price change
Source: Valueguard-KTH
6
Affordability remains strong as a result of higher salaries, low inflation, tax cuts and low
interest rates
Household total wealth is almost three times larger than household debt
Low new construction activity in relation to demand
Socio-economic factors such as:
• the credit information agency “UC “ (provides unique financial information on
Swedish private persons, companies and institutions),
• no buy-to-let market,
• personal liability for life,
• two bread-winners – a mortgage loan is typically a joint liability
General risk mitigating factors in the Swedish market
Key factors
Johan AnderssonDevelopment of SEB’s Credit Portfolio
8
Non-bank credit portfolio composition (Dec ’07 and Sep ’12)
Development of SEB’s total Credit Portfolio
Strong growth in Sweden
SEK 1,304bn SEK 1,578bn
29% 30%
16%24%
4%
7%11%
14%24%
14%
13%8%
4% 4%
Dec '07 Sep '12
Other
Baltics
Germany
Other Nordics
Swedish multi-family
Swedish household
mortgage
Sweden excl.
residential mortgage
Sweden
49% 61%
Mats TorstendahlSEB’s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending
and Strategy going forward
10
SEB’s Swedish Household Mortgage Lending
Substantial growth has been achieved
Total Market = SCB.SE 1. Monetära finansinstitut (MFI) 1B30151A Utlåning Sv,
Säkerhet bostad, Hushåll, 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 2% 2%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
Mar '
10
Jun '1
0
Sep '1
0
Dec '10
Mar
'11
Jun '1
1
Sep '11
Dec '1
1
Mar '
12
Jun '1
2
Sep '1
2
SEB Mortgage Lending
QoQ
167 170 174 177 180 186 192 199 208 212 217 221
68 71 74 76 79 84 90 94 100 103 106 10812 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 17
247 254 261 266 273 284 296 308 323 331 339 346
Dec '09
Mar '
10
Jun '1
0
Sep '10
Dec '10
Mar '
11Ju
n '11
Sep '11
Dec '11
Mar '
12
Jun '1
2Sep '1
2
Single-family homes Tenant owners' rights Second homes
Acquisition of DnB NOR’s Swedish
Household mortgage portfolio
Why SEB has taken market shares?
Mortgage lending by property type (SEK bn) SEB quarterly development relative total market
Overall market development is 0 (zero)
SEB’s Household strategy remained the same
Growth case for Retail
Mortgage product is key for long term loyalty
Efficient mortgage process
Household mortgage lending market shares
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01
SEB~15.5%
Source: Sweden Statistics Sep 2012
11
SEB’s Swedish Household Mortgage Lending
Strong economic profile of new customers
SEB’s typical mortgage customer Age distribution of customers
SEB’s mortgage customers have a relatively stronger credit quality than market average
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
Oct
'10
Nov '10
Dec
'10
Jan '1
1
Feb '1
1
Mar '
11
Apr '11
May '
11
Jun '1
1
Jul '1
1
Aug '11
Sep '1
1
Oct
'11
Nov '
11
Dec
'11
Jan '1
2
Feb '1
2
Mar '
12
Apr '12
May
'12
Jun '1
2
UC scoring
Total market SEB
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-
Portfolio New loans**
** New loans paid out during Q3 2012
Urban single-family homes
Main age span 25-44 years old
High income households
Dual income with kids
Personal savings above average
Stronger credit rating vs. market average of mortgage customers
Source: Upplysningscentralen (“UC”)
* UC scoring is defined as the probability of getting a payment remark within one year
*
12
SEB’s Swedish Household Mortgage Lending
Strongest growth in greater urban regions where there is a lack of supply
Dec '10 Greater
Stockholm
Greater
Göteborg &
Malmö
Other Sep '12
50%
20%
30%
SEK 273bn
SEK 346bnSEK 273bn SEK 346bn
Distribution of lending, % Geographic split of the growth, %
44% 45%
24% 24%
32% 31%
Dec '10 Sep '12
Greater Stockholm Greater Göteborg & Malmö Other
13
16 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 30 33 35 36 37 37
2006122007122008122009092009122010
032010
062010
092010
122011
032011
062011
092011
122012
032012
062012
09
Lending
27 29 36 35 38 39 39 44 47 51 53 52 56 56 57 58
2006122007122008122009092009122010
032010
062010
092010
122011
032011
062011
092011
122012
032012
062012
09
Lending
7% 1% 2% 11% 7% 9% 4% -1% 6% 1% 2% 0%QoQ3% 5% 5% 8% 10% 6% 12% 9% 6% 2% 3% 2%QoQ
SEB’s Lending to Swedish Multi-family
Growth also in the Multi-family housing segment
Housing co-operative associations (SEK bn) Residential real estate management (SEK bn)
14
Dec '10 Greater
Stockholm
Greater
Göteborg &
Malmö
Other Sep '12
35%
20%
45%
SEK 72bn
SEK 95bnSEK 72bn SEK 95bn
SEB’s Lending to Swedish Multi-family
Lending growth in greater urbans areas
Distribution of lending, % Geographic split of the growth, %
39% 38%
26% 24%
35% 38%
Dec '10 Sep '12
Greater Stockholm Greater Göteborg & Malmö Other
15
Pricing Models
Individual pricing based on risk;
Repayment capacity (PD)
Loss given default (LGD)
Loan-to-value (LTV)
Collateral type
List price only an indication
Individual pricing based on risk;
Repayment capacity (PD)
Internal RoBE requirements
LTV
Location
Level of relationship
Size of loan
Swedish Housing co-operative associations and Residential real estate managementSwedish Household mortgage lending
16
Strategy going forward
Swedish Households and Multi-family housing
Mortgage lending a main driver within Household market
−creates cross selling opportunities
Drives customer relationships
−loyalty and long term revenue
Continue growing market shares
−supported by deposit growth
Strong counterparties with relatively low risk
Swedish Household Mortgage lending is a naturalconsequence of SEB’s long-term strategy
Lending to Swedish Multi-family housing part of SEB’s long-term SME strategy
Real estate owners important customer segment in our local geographical markets
Low risk segment
Rewarding relationships with construction companies
− New housing co-operative associations give opportunity to acquire new private customers (tenants)
Johan AnderssonRisk Management
18
Credit assessment criteria
• Customer should afford 7% interest rate and a straight amortisation over a period of 60 years
• Max loan amount 5x total gross household income irrespective of LTV and no more than one payment remark
• ”Kvar att leva på” amount adjusted in June 2012
• Loan >75% of market value to be amortized over maximum 10 years
• 85% LTV regulatory cap
• ‘Sell first and buy later’
Stress Testing
• In-house stress tests show that even under circumstances with both unemployment rates and interest rates
substantially above current levels, in combination with falling market values, net credit loss levels will be
moderate
• The recorded credit loss level during the early 90s crisis peaked at around 0.30%
Mortgage lending based on affordability and LTV
Underwriting Principles and Stress Testing
Swedish Household Mortgage portfolio credit assessment process supports continued robust asset quality
19
Loan-to-value distribution (”bucket method”)
0-50%
51-85% 22%
>85% 3%
LTV Share of portfolio
75%
Weighted average max LTV by property type
Peer review:Weighted average max LTV (for total Swedish household mortgage portfolio – single-family and tenant rights)
SEB: 64.3% (Dec ’11), 65.2% (Sep ’12) Swedbank: 62.2% (Dec ’11), 63.8% (Sep ’12) SHB: 63.1% (Dec ’11)
Source: Interim reports and fact books
Asset Quality
Swedish Household Mortgage LTV development stable
65,2%
69,3%
63,3%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Mar'0
9Ju
n'09
Sep'09
Dec'09
Mar'1
0Ju
n'10Sep'10Dec'1
0M
ar'11
Jun'11
Sep'11Dec'1
1M
ar'12
Jun '1
2Sep '1
2
Portfolio WA max LTVTenant owners' rights, PortfolioSingle-family homes, Portfolio
Nordea: n/a
20
Net credit loss level for SEB’s Swedish Household mortgage portfolio
Asset Quality
Swedish Household Mortgage: Negligible losses in the portfolio after the 90s crisis
Past due 60 days and net credit loss level
* Annualised YTDNet credit losses = the aggregated net of write-offs, recoveries and provisions
-0.10%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
0.11%
0.17%
0.13%
0.10%
0.15%0.14%
0.00%0.01%
0.00%0.01%
0.02%0.01%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Past Due 60 days/lending Net credit loss level
21
Asset Quality
Swedish Multi-family: Very low levels of impaired loans and negligible credit losses
Net credit loss level for SEB’s Multi-family portfolio
Level of impaired loans and net credit loss level
* Net credit losses = the aggregated net of write-offs, recoveries and provisions
0.03% 0.03%
0.08%
0.10%
0.04% 0.04%
0.00%
0.02%
0.00%0.01%
0.00%0.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Impaired loans/lending Net credit loss level
-0,40%
-0,20%
0,00%
0,20%
0,40%
0,60%
0,80%
1,00%
1,20%
1,40%
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sep
'12
Sep ’12 annualised YTD
John Arne WangCover Pool, Covered Bonds
and Funding Strategy
23
Benchmarking the large Swedish banks’ Swedish Cover Pools
SEB – more Households than Multi-family housing
Large Swedish banks’ cover pool Sep ’12
** Nominal based OC
Weighted average max LTV for the Swedish cover pool
59% 58% 47%
Over collateralisation**
56% 32% 15%
55%
38%
Source: Association of Swedish Covered Bond issuers (”ASCB”)
85%72% 68%
15%23% 28% 32%
77%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SEB Swedbank Nordea* SHB
Multi-family etc.
Households
SEK 388bn SEK 692bn SEK 406bn SEK 599bn
* Nordea as of Q2 2012
24
Cover Pool
Only Swedish Residential Mortgages in SEB’s Cover PoolHighlights
Over collateralization LTV distribution*
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Mar-1
0Ju
n-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-1
1
Jun-1
1Sep-1
1Dec-1
1M
ar-12
Jun-1
2Sep-1
2
SEK
bn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%OC OC %
20%18%
16%14%
12%10%
7%2%
0%
0-10%10-20%20-30%30-40%40-50%50-60%60-70%70-75%
>75%
* Distribution in different LTV buckets based on exact order of priority for the
individual mortgage deeds according to the Association of Swedish Covered
Bond issuers
• SEB has by far the highest OC of all the Swedish peers, currently 56%
• Only Swedish Residential mortgages in the Cover Pool, which historically have had very low credit losses
• SEB’s Cover Pool has slightly higher LTV than peer average level
• SEB’s Cover Pool is more concentrated towards Single Family and Tenant rights, which generally have somewhat
higher LTVs
• All eligible Swedish residential mortgages are in the Cover Pool, i.e. no cherry picking of mortgages from balance
sheet to Cover Pool
25
SEB wholesale funding mix
Wholesale funding SEK 692bn as of Sep ’12 Wholesale funding distribution
36%
4%
12%4%3%
41%
Mortgage Covered Bonds SwedenMortgage Covered Bonds Germany
Senior unsecured bondsRetail index linked
Subordinated DebtShort term funding (CPs/CDs)
Short-term funding programs Long-term funding programs
• Commercial paper (CP) programs
• Swedish
• French
• Global
• European
• US
• US Extendible notes
• Commercial deposit (CD)
programs
• Yankee CDs
• Sterling CDs
• SEB AB
• Domestic MTN program• Global MTN programs• Structured Notes Program
• 144a/3(a)2 Covered and senior
unsecured
• SEB AG
• Covered bond and senior
unsecured programs
• SEB Vilnius senior unsecured bonds
SEB strives to keep a high level of funding diversification
in terms of products, markets, currencies and duration
26
Covered Bonds
Profile of outstanding Covered BondsSEB AB Mortgage Covered Bonds Outstanding Covered Bonds (SEK bn)
Currency mix, % Issued Benchmark and Non-Benchmark all ccy
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
20132014
2015
2016
2017201820212022202320262028
20312032203320392041
Non-Benchmark
EUR Benchmark
SEK Benchmark
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-1
1Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Apr-11
May
-11
Jun-1
1Ju
l-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-1
1Nov-
11Dec
-11
Jan-1
2Feb
-12
Mar
-12
Apr-12
May
-12
Jun-1
2Ju
l-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
77%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q32009Q42010
Q12010Q22010Q32010
Q42011Q
12011
Q22011
Q32011Q
42012Q12012
Q22012Q3
Covered Bond SEK Covered Bond Non-SEK
Loans originated by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ)
Pool type Dynamic
Moodys Rating Aaa
Total outstanding SEK 249bn
SEK 77%FX distribution
non-SEK 23%
Benchmark 92.6%Benchmark
Non Benchmark 7.4%
SEK m
27
Funding Strategy
Issuance and Maturity profile
Upcoming refinancing needs 2013-2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Matured Senior Unsecured
Matured Covered Bonds
Issued Senior Unsecured
Issued Covered Bonds
2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013 2014 20152012
Maturing
Matured
Issued
28
Funding Strategy
Covered Bonds
Key factors
Maturity profile Q3 2010 (SEK m) Maturity profile Q3 2012 (SEK m)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 …
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 .. 2018
• After Deposits, Covered Bonds is our most important funding source
• Primary wholesale funding source is SEK Covered Bonds
• Issuance of non-SEK Covered Bonds for diversification and duration management
• SEB’s duration target is on average around 4 years
• SEB seeks to keep as flat maturity profile as possible
29
Strict underwriting and credit assessment based on affordability
High asset quality of SEB’s credit portfolio
Affordability of Swedish Households remains strong
Strong economic profile of SEB’s mortgage loan borrowers
Conclusions
SEK Covered Bonds most important wholesale funding source