seasonal diagnostic and temporal variability of the daily precipitation in argentina departamento de...
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Seasonal diagnostic and temporal variability of the daily
precipitation in Argentina
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos-FCEyN-UBA
Olga C. Penalba, Federico Robledo
Probability of daily precipitation events
Daily percentiles Persistence of rainday and no rainday
Objectives
Analyze the annual cycle of the following properties:
Probability of daily precipitation events
Daily percentiles Persistence of rainday and no rainday
Objectives
Special interest in extreme events and very heavy
rainfall
Analyze the temporal variability of:
Data set
Daily rainfall information
40 rain gauges
Missing data < 10%
Quality control
Period
1961-2003
1908-2003
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Analysis
For each station and over its whole period
50th, 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles of daily precipitationProbability of daily rainfall exceeding a threshold
0.1, 10, 50, 80 and 100 mm 75th, 90th and 95th
percentiles
Persistence of rainday and no rainday
Probability of rainday when the day before was a rainday
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Corrientes
0
20
40
60
80
1 92 183 274 365
mm
Pilar
0
20
40
60
80
1 92 183 274 365
mm
9 de Julio
0
20
40
60
80
1 92 183 274 365
mmMar del Plata
0
20
40
60
80
1 92 183 274 365
mm
Annual cycle of 50th, 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles of daily precipitation amount
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
J anuary April
J uly October
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12
Mean of 50th percentile of daily rainfall (mm/day) per month
Mean of 95th percentile of daily rainfall (mm/day) per month
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
J anuary April
J uly October
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
0 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 15 15 to 20 20 to 25 25 to 30 30 to 35 35 to 40 40 to 45 45 to 50 50 to 55 55 to 60
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Corrientes
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 92 183 274
Pilar
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 92 183 274
9 de Julio
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 92 183 274
Mar del Plata
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 92 183 274
Annual cycle of relative frequency of daily precipitation that exceeds 0.1 mm
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 0.1 mm
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
J anuary April
J uly October
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
0 to 0 .1 0 .1 to 0.2 0 .2 to 0.3 0 .3 to 0.4 0 .4 to 0.5 0 .5 to 0.6
Relative frequency of daily precipitation events exceeding 10 mm/day
-40
-35
-30
-25
January April
July October
-40
-35
-30
-25
-70 -65 -60 -55-40
-35
-30
-25
-70 -65 -60 -55-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
0 to 0 .04 0 .04 to 0 .08 0 .08 to 0 .12 0 .12 to 0 .16 0 .16 to 0 .2
Monthly mean of persistence of rainday
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
J anuary April
J uly October
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
0 to 0 .05 0 .05 to 0 .1 0 .1 to 0 .15 0 .15 to 0 .2 0 .2 to 0 .25 0 .25 to 0 .3 0 .3 to 0 .35
Temporal variability
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 0.1 mm
Tres Arroyos3 Arroyos
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Annual January October
Corrientes
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Corrientes
9 de julio
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Nueve de Julio
PilarPilar
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 0.1 mm
Tres Arroyos
Annual January October
Corrientes
Nueve de Julio
Pilar
3 Arroyos
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Corrientes
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Pilar
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
9 de julio
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Corrientes
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
abril Jul anual
3 Arroyos
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
abril Jul anual9 de julio
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
abril Jul anual
Pilar
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
abril Jul anual
Annual July April
Rosario
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anualSta Rosa
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Relative frequency of daily precipitation
Sta Rosa
0
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.2
0.24
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene Octu Anual Rosario
0
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.2
0.24
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene Octu Anual
greater than 10 mm
greater than 0.1 mm
Santa Rosa Rosario
Annual January July
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-1 to -0 .5 -0 .5 to -0 .3 -0 .3 to 0 .3 0 .3 to 0 .5 0 .5 to 1
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 0.1 mm
Kendall´s tau (filled squares: significant at p<0.05)
Trend
-1 to -0 .5 -0 .5 to -0 .3 -0 .3 to 0 .3 0 .3 to 0 .5 0 .5 to 1
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 95thpercentile
Kendall´s tau (filled squares: significant at p<0.05)
Trend
Annual January July
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -75 -70 -65 -60 -55
Extreme events and very heavy rainfall
Daily rainfall > 50 and 80 mm uncommon
-70 -65 -60 -55
-40
-35
-30
-25
Daily rainfall > 100 mm
4
10
74
16
Autumn > Spring