seams swim dec 2016
TRANSCRIPT
Update on UK Water Industry - Data Analytics for Asset Management
Jon Greensill
SEAMS is the Market Leader for Asset Planning Systems
in the UK Water Industry• Founded in 2002 from water sponsored academic research
• Company shareholders still included…
• Chair of the Analytics working group for
• Now working internationally, for example –
Why SWIM might take advice from the UK…?
1. The regulator has forced UK water companies through several cycles of change (like it or not) relatively quickly by utility standards.
Benefit : Asset Planning has had to become quick & simple
2. UK water companies are relatively large.
Benefit - Really had to tackle Big Data challenges
3 .They are motivated to make a profit.
Benefit - Financial and Asset Planning has become more integrated
Political Change in 2016
We have a lot in common…
Of all the privatisations of the Thatcher
government, perhaps the most controversial was the privatisation of
water…
Political Change in 1989
An Example UK Water Company• Population Served – 7.7M• Water Mains – 28,000 Miles• Water Production – 1,800 MLD• Water Treatment – 2,500 MLD (>1000 Treatment Works)• ~40% Metered• Leakage 440MLD (24%)
Some Current Issues..• Strategic Elan Valley Aqueduct • Recent adoption of Private Sewers• Flooding!
• Of Treatment Works• Of Customers
Severn Trent’s Long Term Asset Planning Journey
Asse
t Sc
ope
$ Sp
ent
$ In
com
e
Clean Water Pipes Sewer PipesAbove Ground
Other Models (resources, etc.)
Tim
e to
Pla
n
Price Review
Price Review
Price Review5 Years 5 Years 5 Years Price
Review
6 months 3 months month+ 7 Days ?
v1 v2 v3
PR09: reduction in CAPEX when moving from Draft to final (~$80m)
PR04: move assessment from a D to B grade
(~$70M)
PR09: assessment of best in class
(~$15m)
PR09: increase in S24 expenditure approved (~$60m)
PR14: reduction in spend in developing non-infra plan from $7.5m to $1.5m
AMP5: AMP5 water inf. programme delivered with $1.5m reduction in planning spend
AMP5: 40% reduction in collapses
and 30% reduction in internal
flooding events (~$6m)
PR14: move to proactive spend for non-infra save >10%
PR14: Industry leading wastewater scores to
support increased investment of compared to
AMP5 (~$280m)
2019
2004 2009 2014
Continue to Simplify the Planning Process…
Manages decision analytics from raw data to optimised investment plans. Simple to rerun the analysis given new data.
.
Automated Analysis Reports
Previously a manual/consultancy exercise – now new results automatically re-configure the model
Data Quality – Measured and Improved
Output Delivery Incentives
What’s the challenge?
• Each company has a set of specific outcomes that they must deliver – hard, measurable targets• Companies could choose from a ‘menu’ but had to prove it was
choosing items relevant to its own customer base - (Customer Willingness To Pay)• There is serious money at stake. The incentives for the timely
completion of major capital projects are high-impact, as minor delays can result in large penalties.• The incentives to reduce water leakage expose companies to
penalties in excess of $1.1Bn and rewards of up to $450M.
Some Example ODI Measures…
Who is winning so far…?
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DESCRIPTIVE
PREDICTIVE
PRESCRIPTIVE
STRA
TEG
ICTA
CTIC
ALO
PERA
TIO
NAL
What happened to all our assets in the last 10yrs?
What happened to groups of assets in the last year?
What is happening to our assets today?
What will happen to our assets in the next 25yrs?
What will happen to our assets in the next year?
What will happen to our assets tomorrow?
What future investments do we need to make on our
assets?
What assets do we need to replace or maintain this
year?
What assets do we need to inspect or maintain
tomorrow?
Analytics Techniques
Busin
ess
Requ
irem
ents
• Long term data collection• Trend analysis on historic
data• Understand past
performance• Scorecards• Data warehousing
• Data mining• Forecasting the future• Probability of failure• Asset deterioration• Statistical analysis
software
• Long term investment scenarios
• Whole life cost modelling• Optimisation and simulation• Uncertainty and sensitivity• Decision support tools
• Annual data collection & refresh
• Review seasonal trends• Identify localised issues• Dashboards• Annual business reporting
• Daily data collection• Real time monitoring of
assets• Early warning of faults• Rapid response to asset
failure• SCADA and monitoring tools
• Detailed data mining• Forecast annual
performance• Account for localised factors• Engineering validation• GIS tools and techniques
• Annual investment scenarios• Set annual budgets• Set annual performance
targets• Candidate assets for
investment• Decision support tools
• Real time data analysis• Predict highest risk assets• Condition and criticality scores• Process engineering• Integration of analytics to
SCADA
• Daily schedules of work• Improve operational
efficiency• Optimise proactive
Investment• Prioritise reactive
Investment• Job optimisation schedulers
Analytics Matrix
Another Financial Challenge - Money is Money• Whilst Capex and Opex still have to be planned/reported the
differentiation between the two is becoming less important. • Capex + Opex = Totex• The financial incentives for spending one type of money
over another are changing• Weighted Average Cost of Capital reduced from 5.1% to
3.7%• A natural extension of the concept of Whole Life Costing
Has a bigger effect on the organisation than you might think…• Challenging some long standing assumptions• Transfer of budgets between departments• Impacts on Supply Chain
…just another example of needing an asset planning process that can respond to change
So we offer our support...
• To feed in experience and lessons learned from the UK
• To co-ordinate possible extra data input to PipeID
• To act as liaison with British Water Analytics group
• To support peer to peer connection with UK water companies
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