National Science BoardDR. EAMON M. KELLY (Chairman), President Emeritus and Professor, Payson Center for International Development & Technology Transfer, Tulane University DR. DIANA S. NATALICIO (Vice Chair), President, The University of Texas, El Paso DR. JOHN A. ARMSTRONG IBM Vice President for Science & Technology (Retired) DR. PAMELA A. FERGUSON Professor of Mathematics, Grinnell College DR. MARY K. GAILLARD Professor of Physics, University of California, Berkeley DR. SANFORD D. GREENBERG Chairman & CEO of TEI Industries, Inc., Washington, DC DR. M.R.C. GREENWOOD Chancellor, University of California, Santa Cruz DR. STANLEY V. JASKOLSKI Vice President, Eaton Corporation, Cleveland, OH DR. ANITA K. JONES University Professor, Department of Computer Science, University of Virginia DR. GEORGE M. LANGFORD Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College DR. JANE LUBCHENCO Wayne and Gladys Valley Professor of Marine Biology and Distinguished Professor of Zoology, Oregon State University DR. EVE L. MENGER Director, Characterization Science and Services, Corning Inc. (Retired) DR. JOSEPH A. MILLER, JR. Senior Vice President for R&D and Chief Technology Officer, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Wilmington, DE DR. CLAUDIA I. MITCHELL-KERNAN Vice Chancellor, Academic Affairs and Dean, Graduate Division, University of California, Los Angeles DR. ROBERT C. RICHARDSON Vice Provost for Research and Professor of Physics, Cornell University DR. VERA C. RUBIN Staff Member, Astronomy, Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC DR. MAXINE L. SAVITZ General Manager, Technology Partnerships, Honeywell, Torrance, CA DR. LUIS SEQUEIRA J. C. Walker Professor Emeritus, Departments of Bacteriology and Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin, Madison DR. ROBERT M. SOLOW Institute Professor Emeritus, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology DR. BOB H. SUZUKI President, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona DR. RICHARD A. TAPIA Noah Harding Professor of Computational & Applied Mathematics, Rice University DR. CHANG-LIN TIEN NEC Distinguished Professor of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Berkeley DR. WARREN M. WASHINGTON Senior Scientist and Head, Climate Change Research Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) DR. JOHN A. WHITE, JR. Chancellor, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville DR. RITA R. COLWELL Member Ex Officio and Chair, Executive Committee, Director, National Science Foundation DR. MARTA CEHELSKY Executive Officer

National Science Board Subcommittee on Science & Engineering Indicators 2000 Claudia I. Mitchell-Kernan, Chair John A. Armstrong Robert M. Solow Richard A. Tapia John A. White, Jr. Bob H. Suzuki, Ex Officio, Chair, Committee on Education and Human Resources Daryl E. Chubin, NSB Staff Liaison Mary F. Poats, Executive Secretary Bennett I. Bertenthal, NSF Liaison Wanda E. Ward, NSF Liaison

Science & Engineering Indicators 2000

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SCIENCE & ENGINEERING INDICATORS 2000

Volume 1

NATIONAL SCIENCE BOARD

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Recommended CitationNational Science Board, Science & Engineering Indicators 2000. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation, 2000 (NSB-00-1)

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402 Stock Number 038-000-00597-9

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National Science BoardLetter of TransmittalNATIONAL SCIENCE BOARD 4201 Wilson Boulevard ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22230 January 13, 2000

The Honorable William J. Clinton The President of the United States The White House Washington, DC 20500 Dear Mr. President: It is my honor to transmit to you, and through you to the Congress, the fourteenth in the series of biennial Science Indicators reports, Science and Engineering Indicators2000. The National Science Board submits this report in accordance with Sec. 4(j)(1) of the National Science Foundation Act of 1950, as amended. The Science Indicators series was designed to provide a broad base of quantitative information about U.S. science, engineering, and technology for use by public and private policymakers. In honor of the 50th anniversary of the National Science Board and the National Science Foundation, the Board decided to develop a special historical theme for S&E Indicators2000. The report reflects on the conditions that characterized U.S. science and engineering 50 years ago as compared to the current state of the Nations S&E enterprise. The report enclosed contains analyses of key trends that illuminate the scope, quality, and vitality of research and education in the Nation and in an international context. In addition to a special history chapter, the report presents trends in U.S. and international R&D funds and alliances, on the S&E workforce, on science and mathematics education from the elementary level through graduate school and beyond, and on public attitudes and understanding of science and engineering. S&E Indicators2000 also devotes a chapter to the significance of information technologies for science and the daily lives of our citizens in schools, the workplace, home, and community. I hope that you, your Administration, and the Congress will find the new quantitative information and analysis in the report useful and timely for informing thinking and planning on national priorities, policies, and programs in science and technology. Respectfully yours,

Eamon M. Kelly Chairman

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Contents Acknowledgments

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Acknowledgments

With this report the National Science Board recognizes one of the most faithful readers, supporters, and critics of science and engineering, Congressman George E. Brown, Jr., who died in 1999. Congressman Brown was a friend of science and an extraordinary leader whose distinguished career in public service for three decades as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives enlightened science and technology policy. The National Science Board extends its appreciation to the staff of the National Science Foundation for preparing this report. Organizational responsibility for the volume was assigned to the Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences, Bennett I. Bertenthal, former Assistant Director, and Wanda E. Ward, Acting Assistant Director. Primary responsibility for the production of the volume was assigned to the Science and Engineering Indicators Program, under the direction of Jennifer Sue Bond of the Division of Science Resources Studies (SRS); Lynda Carlson, Division Director; Mary J. Frase, Deputy Division Director; and Jeanne E. Griffith, former Division Director. The Directorate for Education and Human Resources (EHR), Luther S. Williams, former Assistant Director, and Judith S. Sunley, Interim Assistant Director, also contributed to portions of the report. The primary authors of the manuscript were: Chapter 1: Chapter 2: Chapter 3: Chapter 4: Chapter 5: Chapter 6: Chapter 7: Chapter 8: Chapter 9: William A. Blanpied, INT & Jennifer Sue Bond, SRS Steven Payson and John E. Jankowski, Jr., SRS R. Keith Wilkinson, SRS, and Mark C. Regets, SRS Jean M. Johnson, SRS Larry E. Suter, EHR, and Patricia Butler, Westat, under contract to SRS Rolf Lehming, SRS, and Alan Rapoport, SRS Lawrence M. Rausch, SRS Melissa Pollak, SRS David Cheney and Maria Papadakis, SRI International, under contract to SRS

Jennifer Sue Bond, Melissa Pollak, Jean M. Johnson and Thomas M. Smith directed the physical production of the volume; Derek L. Hill, SRS, Deborah A. Collins, SRS, and David Rosenblum, SRS Intern, made substantive and statistical contributions; Vellamo Lahti, SRS, provided secretarial support; and Martha James, SRS, provided administrative assistance. Additional valuable assistance was received from the contributors and reviewers listed in Appendix A. The entire SRS staff generously provided both data and expertise. Overall editing and coordination of the report was performed by Westat and associates (listed in Appendix B). Eileen Kessler and the staff of OmniDigital Studio, Inc., provided desktop publishing and composition services. Anne M. Houghton, SRS Publications Manager, managed the editing and composition contracts and provided guidance for the production of the report. Leland Scott of the NSF Publication Services Section managed the printing process and James Caras designed the cover. John Gawalt, SRS, was responsible for making this publication available on the World Wide Web (http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/stats.htm). Web design, programming, and HTML coding were performed by Debbie Fleming, Andy Black, De Vo, Marjorie Silvernail, Kathy Barquin, and Jennifer Nowak of Compuware Corporation. NSFs Office of Legislative and Public Affairs (OLPA), under the guidance of Julia A. Moore, Director, and Michael C. Sieverts, Acting Director, provided media and Congressional liaison support for the report. Special thanks go to Mary E. Hanson and Bill Noxon for media support and Joel M. Widder, Deputy Director, David Stonner, and Shirley Day for Congressional relations support.

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ContentsIntroduction ........................................................................................................................................................ xiv Chapter 1. Science and Technology in Times of Transition: the 1940s and 1990s ........................... 1-1Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 1-3 Chapter Background ................................................................................................................................................................. 1-3 Chapter Organization ................................................................................................................................................................ 1-3 Highlights of the First Time of Transition: 194551 ............................................................................................................ 1-4 Emergence of a Concept ........................................................................................................................................................... 1-4 Congressional Initiatives .......................................................................................................................................................... 1-5 Administration Actions ............................................................................................................................................................. 1-5 Impacts of the Korean War ....................................................................................................................................................... 1-5 Investments ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1-6 Early Visions/Key Policy Documents ..................................................................................................................................... 1-7 ScienceThe Endless Frontier (194445) ............................................................................................................................... 1-7 Science and Public Policy (194647) ..................................................................................................................................... 1-12 Themes and Issues .................................................................................................................................................................. 1-13 Monitoring the Condition of the Science and Engineering Enterprise ........................................................................... 1-15 A Program for the National Science Foundation ................................................................................................................ 1-15 Congressional and Presidential Directives ............................................................................................................................. 1-16 Science Indicators 1972, et seq. .......................................................................................................................................... 1-17 Presidential Statements ........................................................................................................................................................ 1-18 Harry S Truman, 1948 ............................................................................................................................................................ 1-18 Major Presidential Science Policy Initiatives ......................................................................................................................... 1-19 William J. Clinton, 1998 ......................................................................................................................................................... 1-20 Current Visions/Key Policy Documents .............................................................................................................................. 1-21 Science in the National Interest (1994) .................................................................................................................................. 1-21 Unlocking Our Future (1998) ................................................................................................................................................. 1-22 Themes and Issues .................................................................................................................................................................. 1-23 Congressional Science Policy Hearings and Studies ............................................................................................................. 1-24 Advances in Science and Engineering ................................................................................................................................. 1-27 The View by Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................... 1-27 Contributions from the Past and Toward the Future ............................................................................................................... 1-28 The Importance of Human Resource Development: The NSF Class of 1952 ........................................................................ 1-29 Enduring Themes: Continuity and Change ....................................................................................................................... 1-32 Support and Performance of R&D ......................................................................................................................................... 1-32 Centrality of the University System ....................................................................................................................................... 1-34 Human Resources for Science and Engineering .................................................................................................................... 1-35 Significance of Industrial R&D.............................................................................................................................................. 1-36 The Federal Role ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1-37 International Considerations ................................................................................................................................................... 1-38 Public Attitudes and Understanding of Science and Technology ........................................................................................... 1-39 Impacts of Information Technology ........................................................................................................................................ 1-39 Current Emerging Themes .................................................................................................................................................. 1-39 Selected Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................... 1-40

Chapter 2. U.S. and International Research and Development: Funds and Alliances ...................... 2-1Highlights ................................................................................................................................................................................ Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ Chapter Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................... Chapter Organization ................................................................................................................................................................ Economic Measures of R&D ................................................................................................................................................. Latest Developments in U.S. National R&D ............................................................................................................................ R&D Growth Trends ................................................................................................................................................................. 2-3 2-6 2-6 2-6 2-7 2-7 2-7

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Trends in Financial Support for R&D .................................................................................................................................. 2-9 Federal Support by National Objective .................................................................................................................................... 2-9 21st Century Research Fund and Earlier Concepts ............................................................................................................... 2-11 R&D by Federal Agency ......................................................................................................................................................... 2-12 Federal Support to Academia ................................................................................................................................................. 2-13 GPRA and Federal Support for R&D ..................................................................................................................................... 2-14 Federal Funding to Other Sectors ........................................................................................................................................... 2-15 Federal Support for Small Business R&D .............................................................................................................................. 2-16 FY 1998 is Final Year for Tracking of Independent Research and Development Defense Spending ...................................... 2-17 U.S. Federal and State R&D Tax Credits ................................................................................................................................ 2-18 State Government Support for R&D ...................................................................................................................................... 2-20 Historical Trends in Non-Federal Support .............................................................................................................................. 2-21 Trends in R&D Performance ............................................................................................................................................... 2-21 U.S. R&D/GDP Ratio ............................................................................................................................................................. 2-21 Rates of Growth Among Sectors ............................................................................................................................................ 2-22 Federal R&D Performance ..................................................................................................................................................... 2-23 Industrial R&D Performance .............................................................................................................................................. 2-23 Recent Growth in Industrial R&D .......................................................................................................................................... 2-23 R&D in Manufacturing Versus Nonmanufacturing Industries ............................................................................................... 2-23 Top 20 U.S. Corporations in R&D Spending ......................................................................................................................... 2-25 R&D Intensity ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2-27 Does Industry Under-Invest in R&D? .................................................................................................................................... 2-27 Performance by Geographic Location, Character of Work, and Field of Science .......................................................... 2-28 R&D by Geographic Location ................................................................................................................................................ 2-28 Trends in National R&D by Character of Work ..................................................................................................................... 2-29 Definitions .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2-30 Federal Obligations for Research, by Field ............................................................................................................................ 2-32 R&D Continues to Fare Well Despite Fiscal Austerity ........................................................................................................... 2-33 Cross-Sector Field-of-Science Classification Analysis .......................................................................................................... 2-34 R&D in Chemistry, Life Sciences, and Information Technology ........................................................................................... 2-35 Inter-Sector and Intra-Sector Domestic Partnerships and Alliances ............................................................................... 2-36 Economic Considerations Underlying R&D Partnerships ..................................................................................................... 2-36 Federal Technology Transfer Programs .................................................................................................................................. 2-37 Principal Federal Legislation Related to Cooperative Technology Programs ....................................................................... 2-37 Differences in Motivations and Goals of CRADA Participants ............................................................................................. 2-38 Scientific and Technological Conditions Underlying R&D Partnerships .............................................................................. 2-39 Industrial R&D Consortia ...................................................................................................................................................... 2-39 International Comparisons of National R&D Trends ....................................................................................................... 2-40 Absolute Levels in Total R&D Expenditures ......................................................................................................................... 2-40 Advanced Technology Program Funding Slows ...................................................................................................................... 2-41 Distribution of Nondefense R&D Expenditures ..................................................................................................................... 2-43 Purchasing Power Parities: Preferred Exchange Rates for Converting International R&D Data ........................................ 2-43 Trends in Total R&D/GDP Ratios .......................................................................................................................................... 2-44 Nondefense R&D/GDP Ratios ............................................................................................................................................... 2-46 Emerging Countries R&D Investments ................................................................................................................................. 2-47 R&D in the Russian Federation in Transition ......................................................................................................................... 2-47 International R&D by Performer, Source, and Character of Work ................................................................................. 2-48 Performing Sectors ................................................................................................................................................................. 2-48 Sources of Funds .................................................................................................................................................................... 2-48 Character of R&D Effort ........................................................................................................................................................ 2-50 International Comparisons of Government R&D Priorities ............................................................................................ 2-50 Funding Priorities by National Objective ............................................................................................................................... 2-50 International Nondefense Functions ....................................................................................................................................... 2-51 Accounting for Defense R&D: Gap Between Performer- and Source-Reported Expenditures .............................................. 2-52 International Comparisons of Government R&D Tax Policies .............................................................................................. 2-54 International Public- and Private-Sector R&D and Technology Cooperation ............................................................... 2-54 Public-Sector Collaboration ................................................................................................................................................... 2-54 U.S. Governments Use of International S&T Agreements .................................................................................................... 2-54

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Private-Sector Collaboration .................................................................................................................................................. International Strategic Technology Alliances ......................................................................................................................... International Industrial R&D Investment Growth ........................................................................................................... U.S. and Foreign Industrial R&D Expenditure Balance ......................................................................................................... Trends in U.S. Industrys Overseas R&D ........................................................................................................................... Sector Focus of Overseas R&D Activity ................................................................................................................................ Country Location of U.S. Overseas R&D Activity ................................................................................................................. U.S. Industrys Overseas R&D Facilities ................................................................................................................................ Foreign R&D in the United States ....................................................................................................................................... Country Sources of Industrial R&D ....................................................................................................................................... Industry Focus of Foreign R&D ............................................................................................................................................. U.S. Research Facilities of Foreign Firms .............................................................................................................................. Selected Bibliography ...........................................................................................................................................................

2-56 2-56 2-57 2-59 2-59 2-60 2-61 2-63 2-64 2-64 2-65 2-65 2-67

Chapter 3. Science and Engineering Workforce ................................................................................................ 3-1Highlights ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3-2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 3-3 Selected Characteristics of the S&E Workforce ................................................................................................................... 3-3 How Large is the U.S. S&E Workforce? ................................................................................................................................... 3-3 Basic Characteristics ................................................................................................................................................................ 3-3 Relationship Between Education and Occupation .................................................................................................................... 3-3 Who is a Scientist or Engineer? ............................................................................................................................................... 3-4 Sector of Employment .............................................................................................................................................................. 3-7 How Important is Temporary Work for Scientists and Engineers? ........................................................................................... 3-8 Salaries ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 3-8 Who Performs R&D? ............................................................................................................................................................... 3-8 Women and Minorities in S&E ........................................................................................................................................... 3-10 Women Scientists and Engineers ............................................................................................................................................ 3-10 Racial or Ethnic Minority Scientists and Engineers ............................................................................................................... 3-12 Labor Market Conditions for Recent S&E Degree-Holders ............................................................................................ 3-13 Bachelors and Masters Degree Recipients ............................................................................................................................ 3-13 Recent Doctoral Degree Recipients ........................................................................................................................................ 3-14 Data on Recent Ph.D. Recipients in Professional Society Data ............................................................................................. 3-16 Age and Retirement ................................................................................................................................................................ 3-22 Projected Demand for S&E Workers .................................................................................................................................. 3-24 Foreign-Born Scientists and Engineers in the United States ............................................................................................ 3-25 What Fields Did Computer Workers Get Degrees In? ............................................................................................................ 3-25 Foreign Scientists and Engineers on Temporary Work Visas .................................................................................................. 3-27 Stay Rates of Temporary Ph.D. Recipients from U.S. Schools ............................................................................................... 3-28 International R&D Employment ......................................................................................................................................... 3-28 Selected Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................... 3-29

Chapter 4. Higher Education in Science and Engineering ............................................................................. 4-1 Highlights ................................................................................................................................................................................ 4-2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 4-5 Chapter Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................... 4-5 Chapter Organization ................................................................................................................................................................ 4-5 Characteristics of U.S. Higher Education Institutions ........................................................................................................ 4-5 Expansion of Institutions .......................................................................................................................................................... 4-5 Long-Term Trends in Enrollment in U.S. Higher Education .................................................................................................... 4-6 Carnegie Classification of Institutions ..................................................................................................................................... 4-8 S&E Degree Production by Type of Institution ........................................................................................................................ 4-8 Baccalaureate Origins of Ph.D.s. ............................................................................................................................................ 4-10 Demographics and U.S. Higher Education ............................................................................................................................. 4-11 Undergraduate S&E Students and Degrees in the United States ..................................................................................... 4-11 Characteristics of American College Freshmen ..................................................................................................................... 4-11 Engineering Enrollment .......................................................................................................................................................... 4-13 Associates Degrees ................................................................................................................................................................ 4-13

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Bachelors Degrees ................................................................................................................................................................. Institution-Wide Reform .......................................................................................................................................................... International Comparison of First University Degrees in S&E ....................................................................................... Diffusion of Higher Education in S&E Fields ........................................................................................................................ Growth Rates in S&E Fields ................................................................................................................................................... Comparison of Proportion of Degrees in S&E and non-S&E Fields Across Countries ......................................................... Participation Rates in University Degrees and S&E Degrees ................................................................................................ Graduate S&E Students and Degrees in the United States .............................................................................................. Trends in Graduate Enrollment .............................................................................................................................................. Masters Degrees ..................................................................................................................................................................... Doctoral Degrees .................................................................................................................................................................... International Comparison of Doctoral Degrees in S&E ................................................................................................... Trends in Doctoral DegreesEurope and the United States ................................................................................................. Trends in Doctoral DegreesAsia ......................................................................................................................................... Graduate Reforms in Europe, Asia, and Latin America ......................................................................................................... Diversity Patterns in S&E Enrollment and Degrees in the United States ....................................................................... Enrollment in Undergraduate Programs, by Race/Ethnicity and Sex ..................................................................................... Enrollment in Engineering, by Race/Ethnicity and Sex ......................................................................................................... Persistence Toward a Bachelors Degree, by Sex and Race/Ethnicity .................................................................................... Associates Degrees ................................................................................................................................................................ Bachelors Degrees ................................................................................................................................................................. Graduate Enrollment, by Citizenship, Race/Ethnicity, and Sex ............................................................................................. Masters Degrees ..................................................................................................................................................................... Doctoral Degrees .................................................................................................................................................................... Postdoctoral Appointments ..................................................................................................................................................... International Dimension of U.S. Higher Education Faculty ................................................................................................... Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................. Selected Bibliography ...........................................................................................................................................................

4-15 4-16 4-16 4-16 4-17 4-18 4-19 4-20 4-20 4-20 4-20 4-21 4-22 4-23 4-24 4-26 4-26 4-26 4-26 4-28 4-28 4-31 4-31 4-32 4-36 4-37 4-38 4-39

Chapter 5. Elementary and Secondary Education ............................................................................................ 5-1 Highlights ................................................................................................................................................................................ 5-3 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5-5 Chapter Organization and Sources of Data .............................................................................................................................. 5-5 Educational Reform from the 1950s to the Present .................................................................................................................. 5-5 View of Mathematics and Science Education in Elementary Schools in 1947 ......................................................................... 5-6 National Science Foundation Support of Post-Sputnik Reforms in Science and Mathematics Education ..................................................................................................................................................... 5-7 Systemic Reform: Complex Solutions to Complex Problems .................................................................................................... 5-8 The Social Context of Education .............................................................................................................................................. 5-8 The National Education Goals ................................................................................................................................................. 5-9 Schooling and School Choice in the 21st Century ................................................................................................................. 5-11 Student Achievement ............................................................................................................................................................ 5-12 Trends in National Achievement ............................................................................................................................................ 5-12 Proficiency Levels Used in NAEP Science and Mathematics Trends Assessments ................................................................ 5-12 Elementary and Middle School Science and Mathematics .................................................................................................... 5-12 High School Achievement ...................................................................................................................................................... 5-13 Achievement Trends by Demographic Group ........................................................................................................................ 5-14 Summary of NAEP Performance ........................................................................................................................................... 5-17 U.S. Achievement in an International Context ....................................................................................................................... 5-17 Achievement of Fourth and Eighth Grade American Students ............................................................................................... 5-17 Achievement of Students in the Final Year of Secondary School........................................................................................... 5-18 Achievement on General Knowledge Assessments ................................................................................................................ 5-18 Achievement of Advanced Students ....................................................................................................................................... 5-18 Performance of the Highest Achievers ................................................................................................................................... 5-19 Performance of Students from the G-7 Nations ..................................................................................................................... 5-21 Summary of TIMSS Findings ................................................................................................................................................. 5-22 Science and Mathematics Coursework ................................................................................................................................... 5-22

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First in the World Consortium Near the Top ........................................................................................................................... Curriculum and Instruction ................................................................................................................................................ Instructional Time ................................................................................................................................................................... Content: Curriculum and Textbooks ....................................................................................................................................... Instructional Practice .............................................................................................................................................................. Technology ............................................................................................................................................................................. AAAS Project .......................................................................................................................................................................... Teachers and Teaching ............................................................................................................................................................ Teacher Qualifications ............................................................................................................................................................ Degrees Earned ....................................................................................................................................................................... Undergraduate Major .............................................................................................................................................................. Experience .............................................................................................................................................................................. Certification ............................................................................................................................................................................ In- and Out-of-Field Teaching Assignments ........................................................................................................................... The Teaching Profession in the 21st Century ......................................................................................................................... Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................. Selected Bibliography ...........................................................................................................................................................

5-23 5-26 5-26 5-27 5-29 5-30 5-31 5-34 5-34 5-34 5-35 5-35 5-35 5-36 5-36 5-37 5-38

Chapter 6. Academic Research and Development: Financial and Personnel Resources, Support for Graduate Education, and Outputs ................................................................................................... 6-1Highlights ................................................................................................................................................................................ 6-2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 6-5 Chapter Background ................................................................................................................................................................. 6-5 Chapter Organization ................................................................................................................................................................ 6-5 Financial Resources for Academic R&D .............................................................................................................................. 6-6 Academic R&D in the National R&D Enterprise .................................................................................................................... 6-7 Major Funding Sources ............................................................................................................................................................ 6-8 Funding by Institution Type ...................................................................................................................................................... 6-9 Distribution of R&D Funds Across Academic Institutions ...................................................................................................... 6-9 Expenditures by Field and Funding Source ............................................................................................................................ 6-10 Federal Support of Academic R&D ........................................................................................................................................ 6-11 EPSCoRthe Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research ............................................................................ 6-14 Academic R&D Facilities and Equipment ............................................................................................................................. 6-15 Academic Doctoral Scientists and Engineers ..................................................................................................................... 6-19 The Academic Doctoral Science and Engineering Workforce ............................................................................................... 6-19 Data Source ............................................................................................................................................................................ 6-20 Research and Teaching Activities ........................................................................................................................................... 6-27 Federal Support of Academic Researchers ............................................................................................................................. 6-28 Financial Support for S&E Graduate Education .............................................................................................................. 6-28 Definitions and Terminology .................................................................................................................................................. 6-29 Support of S&E Graduate Students and S&E Doctorate Recipients ...................................................................................... 6-29 Graduate Modes of Financial Support and Time to Degree ................................................................................................... 6-31 Multiple Modes of Financial Support for S&E Ph.D.s ........................................................................................................... 6-33 Research Assistantships as a Primary Mechanism of Support ............................................................................................... 6-34 Relationship Between Support Modes and Early Employment of Recent S&E Ph.D.s .......................................................... 6-35 The Debt Burden of New Science and Engineering Ph.D.s .................................................................................................... 6-40 Outputs of Scientific and Engineering Research: Articles and Patents ........................................................................... 6-42 Data Sources for Article Outputs ............................................................................................................................................ 6-42 U.S. Articles: Counts, Collaboration, and Citations ............................................................................................................... 6-43 Linkages Among Disciplines .................................................................................................................................................. 6-45 International Article Production: Counts, Collaboration, and Citations ................................................................................ 6-45 Citations on U.S. Patents to the Scientific and Technical Literature ...................................................................................... 6-53 Academic Patenting: Patent Awards, Licenses, Startups, and Revenue ................................................................................. 6-55

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Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................. 6-58 Selected Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................... 6-59

Chapter 7. Industry, Technology, and the Global Marketplace .................................................................... 7-1Highlights ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7-2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 7-4 Chapter Background ................................................................................................................................................................. 7-4 Chapter Organization ................................................................................................................................................................ 7-4 U.S. Technology in the Marketplace ...................................................................................................................................... 7-4 The Importance of High-Technology Industries ....................................................................................................................... 7-6 International Activity in High-Technology Service Industries .................................................................................................. 7-6 Share of World Markets ............................................................................................................................................................ 7-7 Global Competitiveness of Individual Industries ..................................................................................................................... 7-8 Exports by High-Technology Industries ................................................................................................................................... 7-9 Competition in the Home Market ........................................................................................................................................... 7-10 U.S. Trade Balance ................................................................................................................................................................. 7-11 U.S. Royalties and Fees Generated from Trade in Intellectual Property ................................................................................ 7-14 International Trends in Industrial R&D ............................................................................................................................ 7-16 Overall Trends ........................................................................................................................................................................ 7-17 R&D Performance by Industry ............................................................................................................................................... 7-17 Economists Estimate Rates of Return to Private R&D Investment ........................................................................................ 7-18 Patented Inventions .............................................................................................................................................................. 7-20 U.S. Patenting ......................................................................................................................................................................... 7-20 Patents Granted to U.S. Inventors ........................................................................................................................................... 7-20 Top Patenting Corporations .................................................................................................................................................... 7-21 Patents Granted to Foreign Inventors ..................................................................................................................................... 7-21 Technical Fields Favored by Foreign Inventors ...................................................................................................................... 7-22 Patenting Outside the United States ....................................................................................................................................... 7-23 Venture Capital and High-Technology Enterprise ............................................................................................................ 7-23 Venture Capital Commitments and Disbursements ................................................................................................................ 7-25 Venture Capital Investments by Stage of Financing ............................................................................................................... 7-26 Summary: Assessment of U.S. Technological Competitiveness ......................................................................................... 7-27 Selected Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................... 7-27

Chapter 8. Science and Technology: Public Attitudes and Public Understanding ............................. 8-1 Highlights ................................................................................................................................................................................ 8-2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 8-3 Chapter Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8-3 Chapter Organization ................................................................................................................................................................ 8-3 Interest inand Knowledge aboutScience and Technology ........................................................................................... 8-3 Public Interest in Science and Technology and Other Issues .................................................................................................... 8-4 The Publics Self-Assessed Level of Knowledge about Science and Technology and Other Issues ........................................ 8-7 The Attentive Public for Science and Technology Policy ..................................................................................................... 8-7 The Most Closely Followed Science-Related News Stories: 198699 ...................................................................................... 8-8 Public Understanding of Science and Technology ................................................................................................................... 8-9 Public Attitudes Toward Science and Technology .............................................................................................................. 8-13 Attitudes of Scientists, Legislators, and the Public Toward Science and Technology ............................................................. 8-14 The Promise of Scienceand Reservations ........................................................................................................................... 8-15 Public Attitudes Toward the Funding of Scientific Research by the Federal Government ..................................................... 8-15 Americans Give High Marks to Government Investment in R&D .......................................................................................... 8-17 Public Confidence in the People Running Various Institutions .............................................................................................. 8-17 Perceptions of Scientific Research ......................................................................................................................................... 8-18 Perceptions of Nuclear Power ................................................................................................................................................. 8-19 Perceptions of Genetic Engineering ....................................................................................................................................... 8-19 Public Attitudes Toward Biotechnology .................................................................................................................................. 8-20 Perceptions of Space Exploration ........................................................................................................................................... 8-21 Perceptions of the Use of Animals in Scientific Research ..................................................................................................... 8-22

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Use of Computers and Computer Technology in the United States ................................................................................. The Relationship Between Science and the Media: Communicating with the Public .................................................... Where Americans Get Information about Science and Technology ........................................................................................ What Are the Problems? ......................................................................................................................................................... Y2K Awareness and Concerns ................................................................................................................................................ What Should Be Done To Improve the Relationship? ............................................................................................................ Belief in the Paranormal or Pseudoscience ........................................................................................................................ Belief in the Paranormal: How Common Is It? ...................................................................................................................... Do the Media Have a Role in Fostering Belief in the Paranormal?........................................................................................ What Is Being Done To Present the Other Side? .................................................................................................................... Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................. Selected Bibliography ...........................................................................................................................................................

8-23 8-25 8-26 8-26 8-27 8-30 8-31 8-31 8-32 8-33 8-33 8-34

Chapter 9. Significance of Information Technologies ...................................................................................... 9-1Highlights ................................................................................................................................................................................ 9-3 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 9-4 Chapter Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9-4 IT Data and Measurement ........................................................................................................................................................ 9-4 Information Technologies ......................................................................................................................................................... 9-5 Moores Law ............................................................................................................................................................................. 9-6 Information Technology Over the Past 50 Years .................................................................................................................. 9-6 Excerpts from As We May Think ............................................................................................................................................ 9-8 IT Timeline ............................................................................................................................................................................ 9-9 Growth of the Internet ............................................................................................................................................................ 9-10 IT and the Economy ......................................................................................................................................................... 9-11 Use of IT in Business ............................................................................................................................................................. 9-11 What is Electronic Commerce? .............................................................................................................................................. 9-12 International Context of Electronic Commerce ...................................................................................................................... 9-13 Effects of IT on Productivity and Economic Growth ............................................................................................................. 9-14 Effects on Composition of the Economy ................................................................................................................................ 9-16 IT and the Banking Industry ................................................................................................................................................... 9-17 IT and the Trucking Industry .................................................................................................................................................. 9-18 Effects on Income and Employment ....................................................................................................................................... 9-18 IT Workforce ........................................................................................................................................................................... 9-20 IT and Education .................................................................................................................................................................. 9-21 IT in the Classroom ................................................................................................................................................................ 9-21 Distance Education ................................................................................................................................................................. 9-25 Innovative Education Projects ................................................................................................................................................ 9-25 IT, Research, and Knowledge Creation .............................................................................................................................. 9-27 Scholarly Communication ...................................................................................................................................................... 9-27 Digital Libraries ...................................................................................................................................................................... 9-30 Effects of IT on Research ....................................................................................................................................................... 9-31 Growth of the World Wide Web ................................................................................................................................................ 9-32 Collaboratories ....................................................................................................................................................................... 9-34 IT and the Citizen ................................................................................................................................................................. 9-34 IT in the Home ........................................................................................................................................................................ 9-34 IT and Disabilities .................................................................................................................................................................. 9-38 Information Technology, Government, and Citizens .............................................................................................................. 9-40 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................. 9-41 Potential Information Technology Indices .............................................................................................................................. 9-42 Selected Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................... 9-42

Appendix A. Contributors and Reviewers ............................................................................................................ A-1 Appendix B. Index ............................................................................................................................................................ B-3

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Contents

Introduction: Celebrating the Past, Anticipating the Future

This edition of Science and Engineering Indicators is being released in the year 2000the 50th anniversary of the creation of the National Science Foundation (NSF). In recognition of this event, the National Science Board (NSB) resolved to adopt a special historical theme for Science and Engineering Indicators 2000 considering the objectives that characterized U.S. science and engineering 50 years ago as a context for examining the current state of the Nations science and engineering (S&E) enterprise. The National Science Foundation Act of 1950, which President Harry S Truman signed into law on May 10 of that year, gave NSF the mandate, . . . to promote the progress of science; to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; and for other purposes.1 From its creation, the collection, analysis, and dissemination of quantitative information on the status of science and technology in the United States were an integral component of NSF's responsibilities. As the Nation moves into the 21st century, information on science, engineering, research, and education is assuming an ever more important role in our economy and society. The National Science Board is responsible, by law, for developing on a biennial basis, a report . . . on indicators of the state of science and engineering in the United States.2 The Science and Engineering Indicators series was designed to provide a broad base of quantitative information about U.S. science, engineering, and technology for use by public and private policymakers. The chapters that follow contain analyses of key trends that illuminate the scope, quality, and vitality of research and education in the Nation and in an international context. Understanding these trends helps to prepare decisionmakers, scientists and engineers, and the public to deal with their consequences and challenges. In addition to an historical chapter, the report presents trends in U.S. and international research and development (R&D) funds and alliances, in the S&E workforce, in science and mathematics education from the elementary level through graduate school and beyond, and in public attitudes and understanding of science and engineering. Science and Engineering Indicators 2000 also devotes a chapter to the significance of information technologies for science and the daily lives of our citizens in schools, the workplace, home, and community.National Science Foundation Act of 1950, Public Law 81-507 (Stat. 149). The National Science Foundation Act of 1950, as amended, states that the Board is responsible for rendering to the President for submission to Congress in each even-numbered year a report on indicators of the state of science and engineering in the United States. NSF Statutory Authority, Section I, Sec.4 [j][1], 6.2 1

NSF was created near the end of a period in which the countrys science and engineering resources were mobilized for World War II. What emerged in peacetime was a system designed to facilitate partnerships in support of a broader set of national science and technology (S&T) objectives. Although the specific issues evident in documents from the late 1940s differ from those that are familiar today, several current policy concerns have antecedents from that period. The chapters of Science and Engineering Indicators 2000 recall notable themes, but their emphasis is on the current S&T enterprise, as has been the case for all earlier editions in the Science and Engineering Indicators series. Enduring Themes A number of issues that were of concern prior to the founding of the NSF have continued to be of interest to decisionmakers. Indeed, they have been monitored in Science and Engineering Indicators reports over the years. Chapter 1 discusses these enduring themes in more detail. The following provides a brief summary of some of them and indicates where they are treated in the report: Support and performance of R&D. The funding and conduct of R&D has always been viewed as essential to the Nation. Funding by both the Federal and industrial sectors has grown impressively over the years and the relative importance of each has varied over the period. Striking the correct balance among defense-related and healthrelated R&D, and R&D in other fields has been an ongoing concern. Chapter 2 presents R&D expenditures by sector, field, and type of research in the United States and abroad. Chapters 6 and 7 concentrate on activities in the academic sector and the industrial sector, respectively. Role of the Federal Government in the support of basic research. Federal Government support of basic research has been central to the development of a thriving U.S. university system. That support continues today as an essential investment in the performance of research. New patterns of collaboration in innovation enrich the United States as the worlds premier graduate research and education system. Chapter 6 provides an in-depth analysis of academic research and education, personnel, and outputs. Human resources for science and engineering. The importance of human resource development and the necessity of providing a trained S&T workforce and educated citizenry have been a consistent Federal concern. The

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deficit of trained scientists and engineers resulting from World War II was critical at the time of NSFs founding. The potential contributions of foreign students were recognized even before the participation of women and U.S. minorities became a priority. The role of women, minorities, and persons with disabilities is now regarded as vital to future S&T capabilities. While chapter 3 provides an in-depth analysis of the S&E workforce by training and occupation, chapter 4 discusses the role of higher education in the education and training of scientists and engineers. Both chapters present data on domestic diversity patterns and information on the training, utilization, and mobility of foreign scientists and engineers. Importance of science and mathematics education. In the post-World War II era, it was clear that improved education at all levels from pre-college through graduate training was essential. This is equally true today. Many of the same concerns and problems endure and even though some progress has been made, more is necessary. Chapter 5 summarizes data and analysis of elementary and secondary mathematics and science, including comparisons of U.S. student performance with that of students in other countries. There is no greater challenge than renewal of a skilled workforce and of citizens able to use their knowledge of science and mathematics in their daily lives. Chapter 8 updates information on public attitudes toward science and technology and discusses what the public does and does not understand regarding several science and engineering topics and issues. It also indicates where people get their informationincluding from the World Wide Web. R&D and innovation as a key to economic growth. Early on, science and technology were seen as key to economic growth, competitiveness, and jobs. Other countries have expanded their technological capabilities and technical information is more easily transferred across borders. Chapter 7 offers information on industry, technology, and the global marketplace and discusses aspects of the innovation system such as venture capital, patenting activities, and global technology trade patterns and capabilities. After World War II, it was recognized that new discoveries lead to the emergence of new technologies and economic growth and vice versa. Chapter 9 examines one area of scientific advancementinformation technology (IT) developed from a confluence of different disciplines that is transforming our economy and changing the conduct of research and education. International cooperation in science and technology and globalization patterns. The importance of international S&T cooperation and competition was already recognized when NSF was created. However, the growth in collaboration and S&T capabilities globally could not be fully envisioned at the time. Each of the nine chapters in Science and Engineers Indicators 2000 highlights international comparisons: R&D expenditures, globalization patterns, and alliances (chapter 2); utilization of foreign

S&Es, graduate training of foreign S&E students, and international patterns of S&E mobility (chapters 3 and 4); international scientif ic cooperation in terms of coauthorship and citation (chapter 6); interactions and trade patterns between economies in intellectual property and technology (chapter 7); international comparisons of student performance assessments in mathematics and science (chapter 5) and of public perceptions of science and technology (chapter 8). Chapter 9 discusses how information technologies make worldwide communications easier and faster, particularly the effects of personal computer penetration and Internet access in various countries on collaborative research.

Evolution of the Science and Engineering Indicators ReportsThe form of the Boards first report, Science Indicators 1972, was suggested by Roger W. Heyns, a member of the National Science Board from 196776, who became the chairman of its first Science Indicators Committee. He suggested that for its mandated 1973 annual submission to the President and Congress, the Board might consider preparing a report analogous to periodic reports that assessed various economic and social trends in terms of quantitative data series known as social indicators. Preparation of such a report, he further suggested, could draw on the proven capabilities of the NSF staff in gathering and analyzing quantitative data on the U.S. and international science and engineering enterprise. The National Science Board accepted Heyns suggestion, naming its fifth report to the Congress, Science Indicators 1972.3 The positive reception accorded the first Indicators volume confirmed the wisdom of the statutory requirement that the Board issue these reports on a biennial basis. On May 19, 1976, in testimony before the House of Representatives Subcommittee on Domestic and International Scientific Planning, Heyns highlighted some of the main purposes and functions of the Indicators reports:4 to detect and monitor significant developments and trends in the scientific enterprise, including international comparisons; to evaluate their implications for the present and future health of science; to provide the continuing and comprehensive appraisal of U.S. science; to establish a new mechanism for guiding the Nations science policy; to encourage quantification of the common dimensions of science policy, leading to improvements in research and development policy-setting within Federal agencies and other organizations; andScience Indicators 1972 (NSB-73-1). Science and Engineering Indicators - 1993, pg. xi, Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1993. (NSB 93-1).4 3

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to stimulate social scientists interest in the methodology of science indicators as well as their interest in this important area of public policy. Over the years the Board has continued to expand and refine the Science & Engineering Indicators reports. The current issue, Science & Engineering Indicators 2000, is the 14th in the biennial series. This important national and international data resource is part of the Boards larger responsibility in the area of national science and technology policy. The Act further authorizes the Board to advise the President and Congress on matters of science and engineering policy (Sec. 4 [j][2]). In accordance with this broader obligation, the Board has issued a series of occasional papers commenting on selected trends in the Indicators report to focus attention on issues of particular current and long-term importance regarding the Nations science and engineering enterprise. Today, the need for quantitative data to assist in decisionmaking is even stronger than it was when the Board first began this effort. The U.S. science and technology enterprise is in transition. The Nation is changing its priorities for R&D investment and faces a number of challenges in balancing the Federal budget. And, of course, science and engineering have always had a global dimension. As globalization intensifies, Science & Engineering Indicators 2000 emphasizes international comparisons in the data and analyses it presents.

discussion of school reforms, technology in schools, and distance learning in universities; age and retirement trends for scientists and engineers; developments in ITincluding electronic commerce, the existence of a digital divide, and evidence of use of the World Wide Web by governments around the world; modes of financial support and debt burden of science and engineering Ph.D.s; increased coverage of R&D in the service sector; and updated data on venture capital funds.

A Continuing ResponsibilityThe Strategic Plan of the National Science Board recognizes the important role of the Science & Engineering Indicators series and pledges to continue to develop and improve the series.5 The plan states:As the Federal budget and policy processes have accentuated the demand for greater accountability and benchmarking, the data historically available through S&EI have become increasingly valuable for analyzing key trends that illuminate the scope, quality, and vitality of research and education. Thus, S&EI serves two critical purposes: first, as the report of record on the health of the enterprise; and second, as the basis for further analysis by all users generally and by the Board in particular. To insure that S&EI effectively supports these goals, the National Science Board reviews the reports effectiveness with each biennial cycle. The policy and planning demands of the coming years make this task more compelling than ever.

New Features of this ReportScience & Engineering Indicators 2000 begins with a special historical chapter, with historical sidebars featured in many other chapters as well. The report ends with a chapter on the significance of information technologies for science and the daily lives of our citizens in schools, the workplace, home, and community. In between these chapters, the report updates the indicators on key topics and issues that have appeared in previous reports. For example, Science & Engineering Indicators 2000 provides new and enhanced indicators and