scott w. tinker, beg, 2001 wtgs symposium midland, texas october 25, 2001 geoscience technology for...
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Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
WTGS SymposiumMidland, Texas
October 25, 2001
Geoscience Technology for the Coming Gas Economy
Scott W. Tinker & Eugene KimBureau of Economic Geology
The University of Texas at Austin
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Introduction
Energy consumption in the U.S. and the world has shown a very predictable trend of “decarbonization.” Future U.S. energy consumption will be increasingly dominated by natural gas.
Research and technology have been there all the way, responding as needed to the forces of supply, price, policy, and efficiency.
Basic energy research should focus on advanced characterization for enhanced oil production and advanced fracture, salt, and seismic analysis for natural gas exploration and development.
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
QAc9841c
After Hefner, 1993
Nonsustainableeconomic growth
Sustainableeconomic growth
Whaleoil
Petroleum oil
Methane
“City Gas”hydrogen
Oil and natural gasliquids
Coal
Solids Gases
Liquids
HydrogenWood
100
80
60
40
20
0
Per
cen
tag
e o
f to
tal
mar
ket
Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
World Energy ConsumptionC
ivil
War
WW
I
WW
II
Ara
b O
il E
mb
arg
o
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
QAc9841c
EIA production data
100
80
60
40
20
0
Per
cen
tag
e o
f to
tal
mar
ket
Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
U.S. vs. World Energy Consumption
Liquids
Solids
Gas, nuclear, renewables
Natural gas
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
QAc9841c
EIA production data
100
80
60
40
20
0
Per
cen
tag
e o
f to
tal
mar
ket
Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Liquids
Solids Gases, Nuclear,Renewables
1970Forecast
U.S. Energy Consumption
Actual
Gases, nuclear,renewables
1970
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
QAc9841c
EIA Production Data
100
80
60
40
20
0
Per
cen
tag
e o
f to
tal
mar
ket
Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Liquids
Solids
Gases, nuclear,renewables
SupplyPrice PolicyTechnology
U.S. Energy Consumption
Oil price Gas price
1970
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Liquids (Oil)
Solids (wood, coal) Gases (natural gas, hydrogen, nuclear, renewables)
1910191519201925193019351940194519501955196019651970
197519801985199019952000
U.S. Energy Consumption
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Year
U. S
. Co
ns
um
pti
on
(%
)
Coal, Wood, Waste
Oil
Gas, Nuclear, Renewables
% of Total Market
EIA historical production data
U.S. Energy Consumption 50-Year Forecast
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Year
U.S
. co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Btu
)
Coal, wood, waste
Oil
Gas, nuclear, renewables
Total consumption
0.002.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Bb
o1 Quad ~ 1 Tcf
Btu consumptionEIA forecast
Conservation
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
EIA historical production data
U.S. Energy ConsumptionDrivers
Solids•Efficiency Poor•Environmental Costs
Oil•Economic Impact of Price Fluctuations•National Security Impact of Import Ratio•Efficiency Less Than Gas•Environmental Impact Moderate
Methane, hydrogen, nuclear, renewables•Efficiency high•Economic stability improved•National security risks lower•Environmental impact lower•Methane abundant •Hydrogen sustainable•Current cost/benefit is lower•Practical limits (10%)•Hidden environmental costs
Coal, wood, waste
Oil
Gas, nuclear, renewables
Total0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Year
U.S
. co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Btu
)
0.002.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Bb
o
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
OilOil
Exploration
Access
Assess
Development
Reservoir characterization
Field management
Environment
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Impact of Oil Research
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Multifield portfolio
Technology wedge
Pro
du
ctio
n
0Time (yr)
5 10 15
Theoretical Impact onLong-Term Oil Decline
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997
Year
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
Ave
rag
e d
aily
oil
pro
du
ctio
n (
bb
l)
U.S. Oil Production
2001 2005 2009 2013 2019
~ 2,000,000,000 barrels over 20 years$50 billion gross oil value ($25 oil)
Technologywedge
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
L48 Unconventional onshore
Tight gas, shale gas, CBM
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
Deep-water+subsalt offshore
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Year
An
nu
al
na
tura
l g
as
pro
du
cti
on
(B
cf)
U.S. Natural Gas
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
“Unconventional” Gas“Unconventional” Gas
Tight gas
Shale gas
Coalbed methane
Deep gas
Subsalt gas
Gas hydrates
Low-pressure gas
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Impact of Natural Gas Research
Tight Gas
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Bcf
GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database. DOE personal communication.
*Advanced stimulation technology*Greater Green River Basin shale gas*Piceance Basin
DOE
GRI
Federal alternative fuels production
credit for unconventional gas
State of Texas tight gas incentives
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
600 km0
400 mi0
N
QAc9715c
Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c
Geo lo g y
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE TIGHT GAS BASINS(technically recoverable resources)
Data: NPC (2000); * based on estimates of NPC (1993); San Juan Basin tight gas resource included with oil field reserve appreciation and new fields in NPC (2000).
Rocky MountainForeland(13.7 Tcf)
Midcontinent(16.9 Tcf)
Arkla-Tex(29.8 Tcf)
Appalachian(18.3 Tcf)
Permian Basin(19.5 Tcf)
Texas GulfOnshore(9.1 Tcf)
San Juan(5.6 Tcf)*
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1980 1985 1990 1995
Bcf
Impact of Natural Gas Research Shale Gas
GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database; DOE personal communication.
Antrim Shale researchAppalachian Basin shales
DOE(1976-1992)
GRI
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
600 km0
400 mi0
N
QAc9712c
Ft. WorthBarnett Shale
(7.2 Tcf)
IllinoisNew Albany
(2.9 Tcf)Cincinnati
Arch(2.2 Tcf)
Appalachian(23.4 Tcf)
Data: NPC (2000)
Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c
Geo lo g y
Michigan Antrim(16.9 Tcf)
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEVONIAN SHALE BASINS(technically recoverable resources)
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1980 1985 1990 1995
Bcf
Impact of Natural Gas Research Coalbed Methane
DOE
GRI
GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database; DOE personal communication.
$2
$1
Wel
lhea
d p
rice
($/
Mcf
)Federal alternative fuels production
credit for unconventional gas
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
600 km0
400 mi0
N
QAc9714c
Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c
Geo lo g y
Powder River(24.0 Tcf)
Hanna-Carbon (4.4 Tcf)Uinta & Piceance(5.5 Tcf)
San Juan(10.2 Tcf)
Northern Appalachianand PA Anthracite
(10.6 Tcf)
Black Warrior(4.4 Tcf)
Raton-Mesa (3.7 Tcf)
Alaska(Bering River, North Slope,
Chignik and Herendeen Bay)(57.0 Tcf)
SW Coal Region(5.8 Tcf)
Data: PGC (2001)
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE COALBED METHANE BASINS(total most likely resources)
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
600 km0
400 mi0
N
QAc9716c
Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c
Geo lo g y
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP-WATER GAS BASINS(total most likely resources)
Data: PGC (2001)
Pacific Slope(8.9 Tcf)
Louisiana Slope(12.4 Tcf)
Texas Slope(4.3 Tcf)
Eastern Gulf Slope(7.6 Tcf)Gulf of Mexico OCS
(47.7 Tcf)
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
600 km0
400 mi0
N
QAc9713cData: PGC (2001)
Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c
Geo lo g y
MontanaFolded Belt
(5.2 Tcf)
Wind River(5.0 Tcf)
Greater Green River(8.4 Tcf)
San Joaquin(9.0 Tcf) Anadarko, Palo Duro
(17.7 Tcf)Permian(12.9 Tcf)
Appalachian(5.0 Tcf)
LA, MS, AL Salt(15.8 Tcf)
Louisiana Gulf Coast(14.5 Tcf)
TexasGulf Coast(14.3 Tcf)
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP (>15,000 ft) GAS BASINS(total most likely resources)
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c
Geo lo g y
Natural Gas Resources
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Cumulativeproduction
Provenreserves
Unproven
Tec
hn
ical
ly r
eco
vera
ble
(T
cf)
Lower 48 total
Canada total
SW
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c
Geo lo g y
SW Natural Gas Resources
Gas Reserves by Region
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000 Permian Basin
San Juan Basin
Texas Gulf Coast Onshore
Arkla-East Texas
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c
Geo lo g y
SW Natural Gas Resources
Unconventional versus Conventional Gas Reserves
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Res
erve
res
erve
s (B
cf)
Conventional
Unconventional
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c
Geo lo g y
SW Natural Gas Resources
Unconventional Gas Production in Permian Basin
0
100
200
300
400
500
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Pro
du
ctio
n (
Bcf
)
Tight gas
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Oil and Gas Geoscience Research
• High-frequency stratigraphy: seismic & outcrops
• 4-C 3-D, 4-D, and 9-C 3-D seismic data
• Rock physics
• 3-D matrix and fracture modeling & simulation
• Salt modeling and characterization
• Deep-water sedimentation
• High-level basin and play analysis
• Visualization to achieve integration
• Advanced technology transfer
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
High-Frequency Stratigraphy 3-D Seismic Attributes
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
High-Frequency Stratigraphy
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
High-Frequency Stratigraphy Ortho-Photo Draped on DEM
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
High-Frequency Stratigraphy ILRIS Laser Image
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Rock PhysicsBEG Austin Core Warehouse
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001 QAb9145(b)c
Direction ofwave propagation
SH
X
Z
SV
A
P
A
A
X
Z
X
Z
X
Z
X
Z
X
Z
Reflectedray path
Particledisplacementvector
9-C 3-D Seismic Data
P, SV, and SH
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
0° 30°
60°
90°
QAc8431c
N
C1
270° 90°
0°
180°
°2 0
1 0
07 ° 9
0°
8 °
Interval 1
Interval 2
W E
N
S
W E
N
S00 300 m
1000 ft
FMI logfracture azimuths
SV maximumreflectivity
Vertical wellAzimuth directionSuperbin
9-C 3-D Seismic Data
Fracture Azimuth
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Fractures
Weber SandstonePlan View Fracture Traces
CL
F2F2
F1F1
Frontier Sandstone, WyomingPlan View Fracture Traces
Air Photograph
10 m
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Fracture Strike Mapping Microfractures Predict Large Fractures
Fracture StrikeLaubach et al., 2000, The Leading Edge
Laubach, 1997, AAPG BulletinEast Texas, Travis Peak Formation
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Previously InvisibleMicrofractures
Transmitted Light CLOutcrop sample, Poland. Conventional CL.
Fracture
Match point
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Fracture IntensityQuantitative Data for Mapping and Flow Modeling
Fra
ctu
re I
nte
nsi
ty
Marrett et al., 1999, Geology.Stowell, 2000, SPE.West Texas, Ozona Canyon
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Salt Research
Field Studies
Seismic Studies
Numerical Models
Physical Models
Martin Jackson, AGL, BEG
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 20010 13,000
Time (ms)
0 2 mi
0 2 km
QAc8574c
Tiger ShoalTiger Shoal
Target 5Target 5
ShaleShale
Target 4Target 4
Target3
Target3
Seismic Deep-Water AnalysisRMS Amplitude
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
L1700
L1600
L1500
L1400
L1300
L1200
L1100T100 T300 T500 T700 T900 T1100 T1300
Relic deltaRelic delta
TargetsTargets
IVFIVF
IVFIVF
IVFIVF
Bright spotsBright spots
Target 3Target 3
IVF Incised valley fill- +
Amplitude
QAc6999c
Seismic Deep-Water AnalysisStratal Slicing
Exposedshelf
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Summary
ResourcesSupply, economics, efficiency, and technology have
driven U.S. policy and consumption trends. U.S. consumption will be increasingly dominated by
natural gas and hydrogen.
Research• Advanced characterization for enhanced oil recovery • Fracture, salt, and seismic analysis for gas exploration
and field development• Improved basin and play assessment for oil and gas
access and field acquisition• CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery• Visualization for improved integration• High-impact technology transfer
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001
Happy hunting….And, as always, thanks!