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Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2018

IAGC

February, 2018

The Global Energy Scene

Scott W. Tinker

Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018

Population

Clean Water

Education

Healthcare

Housing

Hunger

Climate

Immigration

Status of Women

Unemployment

Crime


Energy has had a

transformational impact on

the quality of human life.


Yet there exists a “good”

and “bad” energy dialog in

the public psyche.


Most people do not know how

electricity is made or where

gasoline comes from.

The Dilemma

But… they think they do!


Outline

The Energy Mix

Electricity & Transportation

Energy Poverty


Global PopulationEach color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people

Petroleum

Nat Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro Renew

The Global Energy Mix

4331

3135

3840

583 893

365

Tinker 2017

86%

Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)

Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent



Petroleum

Nat Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro Renew

The Global Energy MixTinker 2017

86%



1036

881

429

216

151 83

323

15737

5

153

24

862

903

468

264

194 143

426

441

11 1 6 0

183

122

97

2 27 41501

6312798

95362 111



Petroleum

Nat Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro Renew

The Global Energy MixTinker 2017



1036

881

429

216

151 83

323

15737

5

153 24

862

903

468

264

194143

42644

1

111 6 0

183

122

972

27 4 1501

6312798

95

362 111


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Global Energy Consumption (MTOE)

Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass

Global Energy Mix



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Renewable Consumption (MTOE)

Solar Wind

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Hydro Solar Wind Biomass

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Solar Wind Biomass

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Installed Wind Capacity (MW)

Total Asia Pacific Total Africa

Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America

Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Installed Photovoltaic Capacity (MW)

China Japan Total North America Total Europe Total Others

Global Energy Mix


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Global Energy Consumption Mix


41%

16%

38%

29%

24%

33%

95% 86%


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015



Global Energy Mix



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Solar Wind

Global Energy Mix



0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Total Asia Pacific Total Africa Total Middle East

Total S. & Cent. America Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia

Global Energy Mix



0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1996 2001 2006 2011



Global Energy Mix



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Solar Wind

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Solar Wind Biomass

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Total Asia Pacific Total Africa

Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America

Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1996 2001 2006 2011



Global Energy Mix


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Global Energy Consumption Mix


Nuclear Wind, Solar, Biofuels


Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 2014

4

10

12

8

6

2

0

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2100

Asia

F o r e c a s tG

lob

al P

op

ula

tion

(B)

Population and Energy




4

10

12

8

6

2

0

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2100

Asia

F o r e c a s tG

lob

al P

op

ula

tion

(B)



“The world

could be 100%

wind, wave and

solar by 2030,

if just for

political will…”



4

10

12

8

6

2

0

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2100

Asia

F o r e c a s tG

lob

al P

op

ula

tion

(B)



Asia

Energy by Population


QAe5833

United StatesSolar photovoltaics

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

02010 13 1411 12 15 16

Source: Economist, Solar Energy Industries Association

An

nu

al

ins

tall

ed

Cap

ac

ity g

iga

wa

tts

Ave

rag

e M

od

ule

Pri

ce

$ / w

att

15

12

9

6

3

0


Growth in U.S. Wind Generation 2000–2014

Iowa

OklahomaKansas

QAe5771

California

Illinois

Texas

2000 2006 2008 2012

45,000

25,000

35,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

5,000

15,000

0

10,000

2002 2004 2010 2014

Million Kwh


Outline

The Energy Mix


Energy Poverty


Electricity


Source: Emerging Trends in Electricity Consumption for Consumer ICT, Peter Corcoran and Andres Andrae (2013) and CIA World Factbook. China/Russia/Canada figures are from 2014.

Data Center Networks Powering Devices Manufacturing

Electricity Use, 2012(Billion KwH)

QAe5585

0

(482)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

(483)

(511)

(540)

(864)

(921)

(1,065)

(3,832)

China

US

IT Sector

Russia

Japan

India

Germany

Canada

Brazil

South Korea

(5,523)

(1,817)


Electricity Generation by Fuel

North America120

Europe

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

Asia Pacific

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

120 120

Oil

Quadrillion BTUs

ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Renewables

The Future Electricity Mix

Baselo

ad


U.S. Electric Generation Shares (2005-15)

QAe4744Source: EIA

Perc

en

t o

f to

tal

Other

Natural gas

Coal

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 20152006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Nuclear

Renewables

20%

8%

18%

51%

21%

13%

32%

34% 68%

% of

CO2

30%

2%

Fracking!~ 20% CO2

Reduction


U.S. Marketed Natural Gas Production

QAe4666

Source:

U.S. Energy

Information

Administration

Drilling Productivity

Report regions,

Petroleum Supply

Monthly, Natural

Gas Monthly

Bcf/

d

90

50

40

0

80

20

70

60

30

10

Rest of U.S.

Rest of U.S. Shale

Marcellus Region



QAe4666

Source:

U.S. Energy

Information

Administration


Report regions,

Petroleum Supply

Monthly, Natural

Gas Monthly

Bcf/

d

90

50

40

0

80

20

70

60

30

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

US Natural Gas Price ($mcf)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

US Gas Rigs

Rest of U.S.

Rest of U.S. Shale

Marcellus Region



QAe4666

Source:

U.S. Energy

Information

Administration


Report regions,

Petroleum Supply

Monthly, Natural

Gas Monthly

Bcf/

d

90

50

40

0

80

20

70

60

30

10

Rest of U.S.

Rest of U.S. Shale

Marcellus Region

Fracking!

Over 50% of U.S. Gas

Production from Shale

For presentation or publication, reference:

Bureau of Economic Geology 3DRP Shale Resource and Production Project

http://www.beg.utexas.edu/research/programs/shale

Fayetteville

~6,500~13,000

Eagle Ford

~16,500~90,000

Bakken/Three Forks

~18,000~100,000

Haynesville

~6,000~35,000

Marcellus ~10,500~200,000

Barnett~16,500~63,000

Gas OilTcf Bbbl

Original In-Place 3100 450

Tech. Recoverable 700 27

Production to date 70 5

Horizontal wells to date ~ Future wells (base case) ~500,000

Gas Oil

Resource-in-Place

Produced to-date

TRR

~75,000~500,000

Permian Basinin progress

http://www.beg.utexas.edu/research/programs/shale


0 3,000 6,000 12,0009,000 15,000 30,00018,000 21,000 24,000 27,000

Resources (Tcf)

Pro

du

cti

on

co

st

(2008 $

/Mm

btu

)

Hydrates

15

10

5

0

QAe980Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)

Global Consumption

115 Tcfy

~ 300 year total resource

Sour

Arc

tic

De

ep

Wate

r

Shale

Co

al

Bed

Meth

an

e

Co

nve

nti

on

al Tight

Pro

du

ced

Natural Gas Cost of SupplyResources v. Cost


0 3,000 6,000 12,0009,000 15,000 30,00018,000 21,000 24,000 27,000

Resources (Tcf)

Pro

du

cti

on

co

st

(2008 $

/Mm

btu

)

Hydrates

15

10

5

0


Global Consumption

115 Tcfy

Sour

Arc

tic

De

ep

Wate

r

Shale

Co

al

Bed

Meth

an

e

Co

nve

nti

on

al Tight

Pro

du

ced



0 3,000 6,000 12,0009,000 15,000 30,00018,000 21,000 24,000 27,000

Resources (Tcf)

Pro

du

cti

on

co

st

(2008 $

/Mm

btu

)

Hydrates

15

10

5

0


Global Consumption

115 Tcfy

Sour Arc

tic

De

ep

Wate

r

Shale

Co

al

Bed

Meth

an

e

Co

nve

nti

on

al

Tight

Pro

du

ced



Natural Gas Cost of Supply

Resources v. Cost

Dynamics of Price,

Cost, Technology,

Policy and Demand



North America120

Europe

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

Asia Pacific

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

120 120

Oil

Quadrillion BTUs


Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Renewables



Germany Poland Czech Italy UK OtherSpain Netherlands

European Coal Generation

QAe5339

*preliminary

Po

wer

gen

era

tio

n (

TW

h)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

263 262 277 283 274 272 260

137 140 135 138 130 130 129

47 47 44 42 41 41 42

40 45 49 45 43 43 3725 44 55 41 44 53

37

108109

143 131101 76

3223 21

24 25 29 4037

819 841892

860

798 788

694177

173164

157136 132

120


GermanyItalyUK OtherSpain Netherlands

European Natural Gas Power Generation

QAe5340

*preliminary

Po

wer

gen

era

tio

n (

TW

h)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

176 147101 97 102 101 146

153145

129 109 94 109119

9289

7970 64 64

81

9586

7357 47 52

53

7468

5655

52 47

53

Coal766

704

586

511461

497

598176

169

147

123103

124

147



North America120

Europe

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

Asia Pacific

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

120 120

Oil

Quadrillion BTUs


Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Renewables



QAe5832Source: Economist, National Bureau of Statistics

ChinaEnergy Consumption by Fuel Type

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

02000 06 0802 04 10 12 14 16

Coal

Petroleum

Hydro, nuclear,

and wind power

Natural gas

To

nn

es

of

co

al e

qu

iva

len

t, b

n



50

40

30

20

10

0 Sp

ain

Germ

any

Au

stralia

Italy

Japan

UK

Fran

ce

Nig

eria

Brazil

US

A

Ru

ssia

S.A

frica

Can

ada

Mexico

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Den

mark

Sources: IEA, EIA, national electricity boards, OANDA, shrinkthatfootprint.com

Average national electricity prices (in 2011 US cents/kWh)

41

35

30292826

20191817

121110101088

Data: average prices from 2011 converted at mean exchange rate for that year

Affordable

Available

Reliable


Transportation


The Future Transportation Mix

Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day25

20

15

5

10

0

ExxonMobil Corporation, 2013 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, page 20.

2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040

EuropeNorth

America

Gasoline

Other

Natural gas

Fuel oilJet fuel

BiodieselDiesel

Ethanol


U.S. Crude Oil Production

QAe4665

Source:

U.S. Energy

Information

Administration


Report regions,

Petroleum Supply

Monthly, Natural

Gas Monthly

10

6

4

0

8

2

MM

bb

l/d

Rest of U.S.

Federal Gulf of Mexico

Permian Region

Eagle Ford Region

Bakken Region

Approaching 50% of U.S.

Oil Production from Shale

Fracking!


Annual US Oil Production

From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012

Th

ou

san

d b

arr

els

/year


Growth in Petroleum Production

QAe5569

Year

1.5

2.5

2.0

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Gro

wth

in

petr

ole

um

pro

du

cti

on

(millio

ns b

arr

els

per

day)

http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2017/04/26/energy_revolutions_h

idden_in_plain_sight_part_1_of_3_--_shale_crushes_solar_110215.html Source: Mark Mills, 2017

China

RussiaSaudi Arabia

Inflation Adjusted WTI Oil Price

http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2017/04/26/energy_revolutions_hidden_in_plain_sight_part_1_of_3_--_shale_crushes_solar_110215.html


Growth in Petroleum Production

QAe5569

Year

1.5

2.5

2.0

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Gro

wth

in

petr

ole

um

pro

du

cti

on

(millio

ns b

arr

els

per

day)

U.S.

http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2017/04/26/energy_revolutions_h

idden_in_plain_sight_part_1_of_3_--_shale_crushes_solar_110215.html Source: Mark Mills, 2017

RussiaSaudi Arabia

Inflation Adjusted WTI Oil Price

Permian

Basin

Bakken

Eagle Ford

Other

http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2017/04/26/energy_revolutions_hidden_in_plain_sight_part_1_of_3_--_shale_crushes_solar_110215.html


The Future Transportation Mix

Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day25

20

15

5

10

0

ExxonMobil Corporation, 2013 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, page 20.

2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040

EuropeNorth

America

Gasoline

Other

Natural gas

Fuel oilJet fuel

BiodieselDiesel

Ethanol

Asia

Pacific


Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 2017

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Auto Sales Developing Nations

Rolling 12-month (million)

Brazil

Russia

Thailand

QAe5762

4.5

2.5

3.5

2.0

3.0

4.0

0.5

1.5

0.0

1.0

Mexico

Indonesia

India


Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 2017

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

30

10

20

5

15

25

USAEU28

Japan

QAe5761

India

Auto Sales Developed Nations

Rolling 12-month (million)

China

Recession


QAe5893

2011 2014 2015

Global Annual SalesLight-Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicles (2011 – 2016)

2012 2013 2016

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

Source: Argonne National Laboratory, United States Department of Energy

100,000

An

nu

al

sa

les

(lig

ht

plu

g-i

n

ele

ctr

ic v

eh

icle

s) Canada

Japan

China

Western Europe

United States

~ 1.1%


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com

2020 35 40

Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts

QAe5779

500

25 30

400

300

200

0

600

100

Bloomberg

OPEC

ExxonMobil

2016 2017

Mil

lio

n


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com

2020 35 40

Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts

QAe5779

500

25 30

400

300

200

0

600

100

Bloomberg

OPEC

ExxonMobil

2016 2017

~10% of Global Vehicle Fleet

Mil

lio

n


Outline

The Energy Mix


Energy Poverty


Electricity and Poverty

QAe5021Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 2015

Poverty and electricity

access in selected

developing countries,

circles sized by

total population

100

0 40 8020 60 100

80

60

40

20

0

Income % (<$3.10 a day at 2011 PPP†, %)

Ele

ctr

ific

ati

on

rate

2013,

%

Africa

Asia

Latin America

* Bangladesh uses

2005 PPP and $2

a day poverty line

† Purchasing power

parity

Vietnam

China

India

Bangladesh*

Brazil

Nigeria

Tanzania

Kenya

Uganda

Ethiopia

Cameroon

Electricity

Poverty

Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 2017


Electricity and Poverty

QAe5021Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 2015

Poverty and electricity

access in selected

developing countries,

circles sized by

total population

100

0 40 8020 60 100

80

60

40

20

0

Income % (<$3.10 a day at 2011 PPP†, %)

Ele

ctr

ific

ati

on

rate

2013,

%

Africa

Asia

Latin America

* Bangladesh uses

2005 PPP and $2

a day poverty line

† Purchasing power

parity

Vietnam

China

India

Bangladesh*

Brazil

Nigeria

Tanzania

Kenya

Uganda

Ethiopia

Cameroon

Electricity

Poverty

Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 2017

Energy does not end poverty.

Poverty cannot be ended without energy.

Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living

United States

Australia

Japan

GermanySouth Korea

RussiaSaudi Arabia

MalaysiaBrazil

Mexico

China

Ecuador

HaitiGhana

Niger

India0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

ELEC

TR

IC P

OW

ER C

ON

SUM

PTI

ON

, KW

H /

CA

P

GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $

Developed

Developing

1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15

Undeveloped

U.S. GDP > 2X

Source: World Bank Databank

Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living

United States

Australia

Japan

GermanySouth Korea

RussiaSaudi Arabia

MalaysiaBrazil

Mexico

China

Ecuador

HaitiGhana

Niger

India0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

ELEC

TR

IC P

OW

ER C

ON

SUM

PTI

ON

, KW

H /

CA

P

GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $

Developed

Developing

1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15

Undeveloped

U.S. GDP > 2X


> 3 billion

people


United States

Australia

Japan

GermanySouth Korea

RussiaSaudi Arabia

MalaysiaBrazil

Mexico

China

Ecuador

HaitiGhana

Niger

India0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

ELEC

TR

IC P

OW

ER C

ON

SUM

PTI

ON

, KW

H P

ER

CA

PIT

A

GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $

1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15


Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality

1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16Photo Tinker, Ecuador, 2017


United States

Australia

Japan

GermanySouth Korea

RussiaSaudi Arabia

MalaysiaBrazil

Mexico

China

Ecuador

HaitiGhana

Niger

India0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

ELEC

TR

IC P

OW

ER C

ON

SUM

PTI

ON

, KW

H P

ER

CA

PIT

A


1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15



Switch4.5 billion

Switch On3 billion



United States

Australia

Japan

GermanySouth Korea

RussiaSaudi Arabia

MalaysiaBrazil

Mexico

China

Ecuador

HaitiGhana

Niger

India0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

ELEC

TR

IC P

OW

ER C

ON

SUM

PTI

ON

, KW

H P

ER

CA

PIT

A


1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15



Switch4.5 billion

Switch On3 billion


It’s Time to Educate & Power the People


Keep IT in the Ground. Keep THEM in Poverty.


Environment

Economy

Energy

Source: Tinker, EARTH, 2013

The

Three Es


Academia/NGO

Government

Industry

The

Radical

Middle

Source: Tinker, EARTH, 2013


Political

Markets

Research

Regulation

Secure

Energy


1. Energy poverty a primary global challenge

2. Energy security drives energy policy

3. Energy efficiency becomes strategic

4. Impact of batteries/renewables quantified

5. Electric Vehicles grow and plateau

6. Renewables grow, requiring massive storage

7. Natural gas grows for electricity generation

8. Oil remains primary fuel for transportation

Global Energy Trends


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