scott prosise tim holley
DESCRIPTION
Ocean Prediction Center. 2012 Hurricane Season. Scott Prosise Tim Holley. OPC Support for NHC … extratropical guidance. OPC will provide a forecast for location, maximum sustained winds and maximum extent of these winds in each quadrant for overwater extratropical cyclones N of 25N. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Scott Prosise Tim Holley
2012 Hurricane Season
Ocean Prediction Center
OPC Support for NHC…extratropical guidance
• OPC will provide a forecast for location, maximum sustained winds and maximum extent of these winds in each quadrant for overwater extratropical cyclones N of 25N.
• Provide estimated time of full transition from tropical cyclone to extratropical.
• Provide a brief discussion, via email of forecast reasoning for the above forecast
• Radius of 12 ft seas north of 31N
Tropical Systems in 2012
• Tropical Storm Alberto
• Tropical Storm Beryl• Hurricane Chris• Tropical Storm Debby• Hurricane Gordon• Hurricane Kirk
OPC provided extratropical/post-tropical guidance for 12 of 19 tropical cyclones
• Hurricane Leslie• Hurricane Michael• Hurricane Nadine• Hurricane Rafael• Hurricane Sandy• Tropical Storm Tony
Forecast Issued
YEAR NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
2012 176 Advisories
467 Extratropical forecast points
( 113 or 24% for Nadine )
2011 185 Extratropical forecast points
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
miles
24 Hour Forecast Error
48 Hour Forecast Error
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Miles
72 Hour Forecast Error
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
50
100
150
200
250
300
Miles
96 Hour Forecast Error
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Miles
120 Hour Forecast Error
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
100
200
300
400
500
600
Miles
OPC VERIFICATION
• Still done manually. Slow and labor intensive.
• Intensity forecast…– Slightly under forecast (< 5 kt) 24 and 48
hours– Slightly over forecast (< 5 kt) 96 and 120
hours– 27 forecast were exact (zero error)
Sep 8 - 500 MB analysis and 96 hr forecast
Leslie
Leslie – Verification killer! 120 hour forecast error = 1209 NM
Extratropical Life
• Longest life: Chris - 4.25 days • Shortest life: Kirk – Instant dissipate• Landfall:
– Leslie – Iceland– Rafael – Portugal– Sandy - USA
T.S Alberto
T.S. Beryl
T.S. Beryl
Hurricane Chris
Hurricane Chris
T.S. Debby
T.S. Debby
Hurricane Gordon
Hurricane Gordon
Hurricane Kirk
Hurricane Kirk
Hurricane Leslie
Hurricane Leslie
Hurricane Michael
Hurricane Michael
Hurricane Nadine
Hurricane Nadine
Hurricane Rafael
Hurricane Rafael
POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL OCT 18 03Z
Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Sandy
47 ft seas 21Z - 10/29/12
Hurricane Sandy
NPP VIIRS Day – Night Band 10/29/12
Hurricane Tony
Hurricane Tony
2012 Extratropical Post-Tropical Track Composite
Problems?
• No significant problems noted in 2012• Work flow i.e. extratropical forecast
responsibility more divided.• Three desks, Atlantic Regional, High Seas
and Outlook desk all issue tropical forecast
The End Thank You
Scott Prosise
Ocean Prediction Center
2013 NOAA Hurricane Conference