scotland independence

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Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI

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Scottish Public Opinion MonitorSeptember 2013


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Independence referendum


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Q. Should Sco t land be an independent coun t ry?

Referendum voting intention

Base: All = 1,000; all certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013

30%

57%

14%

All

Yes Changesince May

+2

31%

59%

10%

Certain to vote

Yes Changesince May

0

Yes

No

Undecided

Yes

No

Undecided


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Referendum voting intention certain to vote

Base: All certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013

31%

59%

10%

Certain to vote

Yes Changesince May

0

Yes

No

Undecided


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Referendum voting intention recent trend

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

Yes No Undecided

59%

31%

10%


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Voting intention amongst those certain to vote anddefinitely decided how they will vote

Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (531). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

33%

67%

All definitely decided and certain to vote

38%

62%

33%

67%

33%

67%

Yes No

All definitely decidedand certain to vote(Feb-Sep)

Yes

No

No Changesince May

P t


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Floating voters

Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (251); all undecided (130). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013

39%

61%

All giving a voting intention butmay change their mind

35%

31%

34%

All undecided inclined to vote

Yes

No

Yes

No

Undecided

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hereSupport for independence long-term trend

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 9 7 8

1 9 7 9

1 9 8 0

1 9 8 1

1 9 8 2

1 9 8 3

1 9 8 4

1 9 8 5

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 7

1 9 8 8

1 9 8 9

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 2

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 8

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

S u p p o r t

f o r

i n d e

p e n

d e n c e

( % )

Introduction of the poll taxin Scotland

Devolution referendum

Scottish Parliament opens

Devolution referendum

SNP form minoritygovernment

SNP form majoritygovernment

Edinburgh Agreement

signed

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hereVoting intention by gender

Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013

40%

54%

24%

64%

40%

es

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Men Women

% voting Yes

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hereVoting intention by age group


es

No

29%

62%

37%

51%12%

30%

61%9%

30%

61%9%

16-24 25-34

35-54 55+

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+

*Jan 2012 May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds

% voting Yes

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hereVoting intention by levels of deprivation


42%

45%

22%

69%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

es

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

% voting Yes

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14%

80%6%

Voting intention by party support


es

No

68%

21%

16%

75%9%

1% 98%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


SNP Lab Con Lib Dem

% voting Yes

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brand logohereechnical details

This presents the topline results from Scotland

Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondentsconducted by telephone

Fieldwork dates: 9 th 15 th September 2013

Data are weight by: age, sex and working status usingcensus data; tenure using SHS data; and public-privatesector employment using Scottish Government QuarterlyPublic Sector Employment series data

Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due tocomputer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion ofdon t know categories

Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless

otherwise stated

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