Bootle Town Hall

Sir John BeddingtonChief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and

Head of the Government Office for Science

10th February 2011

Scientific Advice in Government: Collaborating and Communicating

“Those nations that invest in  science are investing in the 

future. Those that cut science  are hoping for the best.”

Peter Agre, President of the AAAS & Nobel Prize

winner

The role of the Chief Scientific The role of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM GovernmentAdviser to HM Government

• Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet

• Responsible for the quality of all engineering and scientific advice across the whole of Government

• Lead a network of departmental Chief Scientific Advisers

• Head of the Science and Engineering Profession in the Civil Service

• Supported by the Government Office for Science who have a cross- Government challenge and support role

WhatWhat’’s in my s in my ‘‘inin’’ tray?tray?

Water demand

Energy demand

Urbanisation

Population Alleviating poverty

Climate Change

Food security

Infectious diseases

Counter-terrorism Volcanoes Structure of Financial Systems

A Network of Chief Scientific AdvisersA Network of Chief Scientific Advisersin all major science using departmentsin all major science using departments

Prof Brian Collins

BIS

Prof Jeremy Watson

CLG

Anita Charlesworth

DCMS

Prof David MackayDECC

Prof Bob Watson

Defra

Prof Chris Whitty

DFID

Prof DameSally Davies

DH

Dr Bill Gunnyeon

DWP

Prof Peter Freer Smith Forestry C.

Prof David Clary FCO

Carole WillisDfE

Dr Andrew Wadge

FSA

Patrick McDonald

HSE

Prof Mark Welland

MoD

Prof Anne Glover

Scotland

MI5

Prof John HarriesWales

Prof Adrian Smith DG Science & Research (BIS)

Prof Brian Collins

DfT

Prof Bernard Silverman

Home Office

Rebecca Endean

MoJ

CSAC Issues GroupsCSAC Issues Groups

CounterterrorismClimate Change and

Food Security

Cross cutting issues that require a range of expertise and experience to ensure science based evidence supports policy making

Climate Change and Food Climate Change and Food Security SubSecurity Sub--GroupGroup

Topics discussed haveincluded:

• Food Matters• 2008 Food price spike• Ocean acidification• Tropospheric ozone• Contribution of engineering

to address climate change

CounterCounter--Terrorism SubTerrorism Sub--GroupGroup

Topics discussed haveincluded:

• Counter-IED• Cyber security• 2012 Olympics Security

Council for Science Council for Science and Technologyand Technology

•

Advises the Prime Minister on science and  technology issues that cut across departments

•

5 broad themes: Research Science and society Education Science and government Technology innovation

•

Since 2003 has published 12 reports and  provided shorter pieces of advice when 

required

•

A recent key piece of work: A Vision for UK  Research 

The Government Office for The Government Office for ScienceScience

Science in GovernmentTeam

Government Chief Scientific Adviser

Foresight Team

BIS International

• GO - Science are housed in BIS but have an independent cross-Government role

• GO - Science provide scientific challenge and support to Departmental policy officials and for scientists across Government

Private Office

The Prime Minister and Cabinet

• Ministers• CSAs• OGDs• NGOs• Industry

International  Dimensions of Climate 

Change

Global  Environmental 

Migration

Foresight: Solutions to the Foresight: Solutions to the Perfect StormPerfect Storm

• Ensuring the contribution of engineers and scientists is recognised and valued in Government

• Providing support to career development activities and professional skills

• Community of Scientists and Engineers across Government

The Government Chief Scientific Adviser’s role as Head of the Science and Engineering Profession

GSE@bis.gsi.gov.uk

Science at the grassroots of Science at the grassroots of Government?Government?

The GSE community The GSE community at two yearsat two years

808 GSE members have a PhD

1718 GSE members have chartered status or are members of professional bodies.

948 follow a programme of Continuing Professional Development (CPD)

66% of GSE members are in the grade/range HEO to grade 7

3200+ members

HighlySkilled

700+ different areas of expertise

Diverse

Large

GSE: Membership ProfileGSE: Membership Profile

73732727

20

3050

59% work in a post where their science expertise and/or qualifications are an essential part of their job

Why do we need coWhy do we need co--ordinated, ordinated, effective scientific advice?effective scientific advice?

Lessons from the Past:Lessons from the Past:Foot and Mouth 2001Foot and Mouth 2001

“The involvement of independent  sources of scientific advice early in  the 2001 epidemic was due to the  personal intervention of the 

Chairman of the Food Standards  Agency. The formal engagement of a 

scientific advisory group was not  until 35 days after the start of the  epidemic”

Lessons to Be Learned from the Foot and Mouth disease outbreak of 2001 Inquiry

National Risk Assessment

National Risk Register 2010 Edition Risk Matrix

The Concept of SAGEThe Concept of SAGE

SAGE (strategic)

is informed by/commissions from/coordinates

Departmental scienceadvice

Science providers (academia, industry, DSTL, etc.)

informs and advises

COBR: including DAs

commissions

SAGE MembershipSAGE Membership

SAGE

CSAs AcademiaIndustry experts

Regulators

Government experts:•DSTL

•HPA

•AWE

•Research Councils

•And others…….

International expertsLearned academies

• 30 potentially active volcanic systems in Iceland

• 205 historical eruptions (average 25 per 100 years),

• 78% were explosive (due partly to ice-caps on central volcanoes), 13% part explosive, 9% effusive

• In last 1100 years: 79% basaltic, 16% intermediate, 5% silicic

• Periodicity of volcanism in SE Iceland of ~140 years.

Thordarson and Larsen 2007

Frequency of explosive and partly explosive Icelandic eruptions since 850AD (per 20-years)

Iceland’s Volcanoes

The Eyjafjallajökull Volcano

Putting it into Practice: Putting it into Practice: The Volcanic Ash CloudThe Volcanic Ash Cloud

Scientific and engineering input to the Scientific and engineering input to the volcanic ash emergencyvolcanic ash emergency

National Security Council (Threats Hazards Risks and Contingencies)

Scientific Advisory Group in Emergencies (SAGE)

Chaired by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser

Geology and volcanology

subgroup

Meteorology subgroup

Aviation engineering subgroup

Met Office

British Geological

Survey

Academic experts

Research Councils / Government scientists

Commission new research

Peer review incoming science advice

Help with planning advice

What should and What should and did did SAGE do?SAGE do?

Example: No immediate health and environmental issues

Example: review of NERC Dornier measurements of ash cloud

Provide briefing on issues and concepts

Example: why did the Icelandic volcano contain so much fine ash?

Provide assessments on future prognosisand produce response scenarios

Example: future scenarios for Iceland eruptions and meteorological conditions

“All substances are poisons, there is  none which is not a poison. The right  dose differentiates a poison from a 

remedy.”

Paracelsus, 1493‐1531

Risk = Hazard x Exposure

Communicating Risk:Communicating Risk:Hazard based regulationHazard based regulation

Has slowed uptake of GMHas slowed uptake of GM……

Despite “consumer fears” five approvals have now been granted in the EU

• Amflora potatoes approved for starch production (mostly paper making)

• The by-product produced is approved to be used as animal feed

25 countries that have adopted biotech crops

Source: Clive James, 2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Hec

tare

s (m

illio

n)

Year

……and could result in potential misuses and could result in potential misuses of the precautionary principleof the precautionary principle

Bisphenol

A – Baby Bottles

This potentially legitimises an overly precautionary approach in

the  absence of scientific evidence showing any risk

Pesticides – plant protection products

Source: Met Office

Climate Risk: The 2Climate Risk: The 2°°C targetC target

• Danger of forest fires• Some cereal crops may increase in

mid to high latitudes• Rising temperatures will cause

changes in rainfall patterns• Glacier melt

• Drought events one and a half times as frequent across southern Africa and Mediterranean basin

• Hottest days: China 4°C warmer; North America 8°C warmer; Europe 6°C warmer.

• Global average sea level rise by approx 40cm.

+ 2 - 6°C

+ 1 - 2°C

+ 1 - 3°C

+ 1 - 3°C

Source: Met Office

• Increased danger of forest fires• Crop yields decrease• Up to 70% reduction in water run-off. • Sea levels could rise as much as

80cm by the end of the century• Extreme glacier melt

• Fisheries severely depleted.• Drought events twice as frequent.• Disappearance of the permafrost• Decline of ice sheets• Tropical cyclones more intense.• Hottest days: China 6°C warmer; North

America 11°C warmer; Europe 8°C warmer.

+ 8 - 16°C

+ 5 - 7°C

+ 3 - 8°C

+ 4 - 8°C

Now a real risk of a 4Now a real risk of a 4°°C average C average temperature risetemperature rise

Source: AVOID, Technical Note, 2010

The Copenhagen PledgesThe Copenhagen Pledges

Significant cuts in global emissions after 2020 will be required (pink and orange lines)

The Climate Change Committee has made a number of recommendations which have been taken forward in legislation:

• The UK should reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 80% by 2050, as a fair contribution to a global action on climate change

• The UK should reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 34% by 2020

• Once a global deal is reached, the target should increase to 42% by 2020

The UK CommitmentThe UK Commitment

2020 target

151

113

66

47

49

97

93

2009 emissions

Aviation & shipping*

Non-CO2 GHGs

Other CO2Industry

Residential, public & commercial heat

Road transport

Electricity generation

* 2008 emissions(2009 not yet available); bunker fuels basis

2050 objective

159 Mt CO2e

615 Mt CO2e

74% cut (= 80% vs.

1990)

Interim budget

Intended budget

42% cut vs. 1990

The 80% reduction is an The 80% reduction is an enormous challengeenormous challenge

Source: Climate Change Committee, based on a figure in the report ‘Building a low carbon economy’

An investment and engineering An investment and engineering challenge for current technology challenge for current technology

Technology Annual Deployment Rate

Coal with CCS 35 plants (500MW)

Gas with CCS 20 plants (500MW)

Nuclear plants 32 plants (1000MW)

Hydro-power 1/5 Canada’s hydropower capacity

Biomass plants 100 plants (50MW)

Wind onshore 14000 turbines (4MW)

Wind offshore 3750 turbines (4MW)

Geothermal 130 geothermal units (100MW)

Solar PV 215million M2 solar panels

Solar CSP 80 CSP plants (250MW)

Source: IEA 2008

Nuclear Energy: good example of Nuclear Energy: good example of RiskRisk--Hazard balance Hazard balance

• By its nature, nuclear energy presents a major hazard: dealing with large amounts of radioactivity

• Importance of ‘Managed Risk’: from site selection and plant design, to construction and operation, to waste management and decommissioning

• Recognising the need for Nuclear Energy in the future

EDF/AREVA

UK EPR Westinghouse AP1000

Low Carbon Opportunities Low Carbon Opportunities –– e.g. Offshore Winde.g. Offshore Wind

Source: The London Array

New Risks: Climate Change and future planning

• uncertainty about how it may effect future wind patterns

• ‘blocking events’ ; average wind speed changes etc

Risks: We also have to think about Risks: We also have to think about Climate Change Climate Change adaptationadaptation

Bridge collapse at Cockermouth, 2009

If we don’t adapt our new and existing long life infrastructure then we  face increasing risk of impacts of climate change disrupting essential 

services and adversely affecting the economy 

Semi‐submerged power station at Walham

Stretch of Great 

Western rail line 

at Dawlish

Infrastructure Report: Understanding Infrastructure Report: Understanding and preparing for future risksand preparing for future risks

• Set up 2 year cross-departmental Infrastructure and Adaptation project to examine and identify how long-term resilience of infrastructure to climate change might be increased.

• Introduced Adaptation Reporting Power which covers key infrastructure sectors.

• Started UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

That is why Adapting to Climate Change Programme has prioritised infrastructure:

These have been challenging times These have been challenging times for science and engineering...for science and engineering...

……but challenges drive us forward but challenges drive us forward

We must focus on communicating

these scientific  challenges: both the solutions and risks/uncertainties

Stephen ChuUS Secretary

of Energy

Western Governors' Association (WGA) annual meeting in Utah14-16 June

“people are entitled to their  own opinions, but they are not 

entitled to their own facts"

“In the long history of humankind  those who learned to collaborate and 

improvise most effectively have  prevailed”

Charles Darwin, 1809-1882

“In science the credit goes to the man  who convinces the world, not to the 

man to whom the idea first occurs.”

Francis Darwin, 1848-1925