Miguel Pinedo-Vasquez, Victor Gutierrez-Velez, Katia Fernandes, Christine Padoch, Maria Uriarte, Walter Baethgen and

Ruth DeFries

Science and tools for fire adaptation and mitigation CIFOR-EARTH INSTITUTE PARTNERSHIP

1. Many tropical areas are experiencing profound and rapid landscape change.

2. Some of these changes are resulting in an increased risk of agricultural fires escaping.

3. Drivers of increased fire incidence are complex and interrelated, often in non-linear ways

4. We are developing science and tools that may help communities both mitigate and adapt to climate change

and fire risk in tropical landscapes.

Outline

Landscape Transitions

Fires in humid tropical regions

• Fire is not a natural phenomenon but its use can be dated to 8,000 yrs BP. (Bush et al. 2007)

• It is the cheapest tool for land preparation, pasture and plantation management (Fernandes et al. 2011)

• Where climate change leads to decreased precipitation (Malhi, 2008), fire uses need to adapt

Multiple dimensions of change influencing fire risk

DemographicShifts

AbsenteeLandlords

FIRE RISK

Droughts

Land use/coverchanges

Large pasturesplantations

Vegetation change

Dry spells

Variability Seasonality

UrbanizationMobility

Social/demographic dimensions

Climatic dimensions

Land cover dimensions

Fires are increasing in areas with declining rural population in Western Amazonia

Uriarte et al. (2012).

Prop. change in rural population

Fewer people

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Secondary forests and adult oil palm plantations can help reduce fire occurrence.

Gutierrez-Velez et al (submitted)

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8Gutierrez-Velez et al (submitted)

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Drought severity reduces the ability of secondary forests but not of adult oil palm plantations to reduce fire occurrence

Fire Early Warning System in Western Amazonia

J/A/S Western Amazonia fire anomalies can be forecast from retrospective Sea Surface Temperature.

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Fernandes, K., et al. (2011).

Fires Early Warning System in Western Amazonia

(a) (b) (c)

JAS 2010 Fire-Anomalies predicted since (a) April, (b) May and (c) June with 95% confidence.

Fernandes, K., et al. (2011).

Fernandes, K., et al. (2011).

1. Designing early warning systems for adaptation to climate variability.

2. Providing institutional support for fire prevention and intervention systems.

3. Mapping vulnerability to fire based on socio-demographic dynamics and landscape change.

4. Designing land cover management strategies to mitigate climate and fire risk in transitional landscapes

We are developing science and tools for local adaptation to fire risk as well as for mitigation:

Thank you