Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Planforfor

Air Quality ForecastingAir Quality Forecasting

Paula DavidsonPaula Davidson

Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Planforfor

Air Quality ForecastingAir Quality Forecasting

Paula DavidsonPaula Davidson

NWS S&T CommitteeNWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002September 17, 2002

OutlineOutline

• Team CompositionTeam Composition

• Vision/BenefitsVision/Benefits

• Goals/TargetsGoals/Targets

• Key Gaps Key Gaps

• Key DecisionsKey Decisions

• Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs

• SummarySummary

Air Quality ForecastingAir Quality ForecastingTiger Team CompositionTiger Team Composition

• Pai-Yei Whung (Team Lead) (OAR)Pai-Yei Whung (Team Lead) (OAR)

• Paula DavidsonPaula Davidson** (NWS/OST) (NWS/OST)

• Paul StokolsPaul Stokols** (NWS/OCWWS) (NWS/OCWWS)

• Ralph PetersenRalph Petersen** (NWS/NCEP) (NWS/NCEP)

• James MeagherJames Meagher** (OAR) (OAR)

• Richard ArtzRichard Artz* * (OAR)(OAR)

• William StockwellWilliam Stockwell* * (OAR)(OAR)

• James O’Sullivan (OAR)James O’Sullivan (OAR)

• Roger Pierce (OAR)Roger Pierce (OAR)

• James Lee (NWS/OCWWS)James Lee (NWS/OCWWS)

• Paul Hirschberg (NWS/OST)Paul Hirschberg (NWS/OST)

• Ken Schere (OAR/EPA)Ken Schere (OAR/EPA)

• (NESDIS)(NESDIS)

Air Quality ForecastingAir Quality ForecastingVision / Vision / BenefitsBenefits

Vision Provide the Nation with accurate and timely air quality forecasts to protect lives, property

Vision Provide the Nation with accurate and timely air quality forecasts to protect lives, property

REDUCE loss of life, health and property from poor air quality

>60,000 deaths/yr from high levels of particulate matter>60,000 deaths/yr from high levels of particulate matter~ $150 B/ yr health cost of air pollution~ $150 B/ yr health cost of air pollution~ $2.4 B/ yr agricultural crop losses from high levels of ~ $2.4 B/ yr agricultural crop losses from high levels of ozoneozone

CurrentCurrent• NWS forecasting does not include AQNWS forecasting does not include AQ• High societal costs of poor AQHigh societal costs of poor AQ• Capabilities ready for transitionCapabilities ready for transition

Air Quality ForecastingAir Quality ForecastingGoals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12

Performance Performance Measure: Measure:

Existing GPRA Existing GPRA

Current SkillCurrent Skill FY07 GoalFY07 Goal FY12 Target FY12 Target

Proposed Proposed ProductsProducts

IOCIOC FY07 TargetFY07 Target FY12 TargetFY12 Target

Ozone forecastsOzone forecasts 1-day 1-day forecasts: New forecasts: New

EnglandEngland

1-day 1-day categorical categorical

forecasts for the forecasts for the NationNation

Extend to day 2 Extend to day 2 and beyondand beyond

Extend to other Extend to other elements: PMelements: PM

RTT&E, day-1, RTT&E, day-1, NENE

Nationwide Nationwide capability, 2-daycapability, 2-day

Air Quality ForecastingAir Quality ForecastingKey Gaps: Questions for IOC PlanningKey Gaps: Questions for IOC Planning

• Roles of Partners: public and private?

• Best use of observations?

• Optimum configuration for accuracy/efficiency of AQ models?

• Alternative concepts of operation?

• Estimates for schedule/resources?

FY 02 0403 05 06

1-day O3

IOC IOC NENE

07

NOAA AQFP Timeline* *integrated with WRF schedule

1-day O3:NE

1-day O3:

NE

Research/Prototype

Real-Time Test/Evaluation (RTT&E) Operational

Current and Projected Funding ($M)3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

V/Vmeth

3.0 3.0

1-day PM

1-day O3: Nation

Pre-Operational Development

1-day PM1-day PM

extend to EUS

OAR

NWS 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

NOAA AQFP Critical Decision Points: NOAA AQFP Critical Decision Points: IOC in FY 04 IOC in FY 04

1.1. Verification and ValidationVerification and Validation

2.2. Select OSelect O33 module for FY04 RTT&E module for FY04 RTT&E

a)a) Select modules for FY03 development/testingSelect modules for FY03 development/testing

3.3. Define Forecaster RoleDefine Forecaster Role

a)a) Complete plan for evaluating alternatives in FY03Complete plan for evaluating alternatives in FY03

4.4. Select IT architecture designSelect IT architecture design

5.5. Define forecast productsDefine forecast products

6.6. Evaluate air chemistry obs needsEvaluate air chemistry obs needs

7.7. Approve OApprove O33 module for operational use module for operational use

NOAA AQFP: NOAA AQFP: Proposed Concepts of OperationsProposed Concepts of Operations

NWP

PARTNERS and END USERS

Fed./State Private/Public

NDFD

NCDC

Forecasts

Archive

Obs.

Forecaster Role ???A. “Hands Off”B. Central DeskC. WFOsD. B+C

NOAA AQF Next StepsNOAA AQF Next Steps

For September 2002For September 2002

• Refine/Validate Timeline Refine/Validate Timeline

• Key Decision Points Key Decision Points

– Responsibility, Criteria approvalResponsibility, Criteria approval

– Obtain computing resources estimatesObtain computing resources estimates

– Refine deliverables, resource estimatesRefine deliverables, resource estimates

• Finalize EPA-NOAA MOUFinalize EPA-NOAA MOU

Next 6 monthsNext 6 months

• Planning for FY 03 – FY 07+Planning for FY 03 – FY 07+

– Define customer requirementsDefine customer requirements

– Define deliverables, resource estimatesDefine deliverables, resource estimates

• Monthly MeetingsMonthly Meetings

Air Quality ForecastingAir Quality ForecastingOutstanding R&D NeedsOutstanding R&D Needs

• What is the best use of atmospheric chemistry What is the best use of atmospheric chemistry observations for forecasting?observations for forecasting?

• Which species must be included to accurately Which species must be included to accurately predict ozone, PM, and expanded product predict ozone, PM, and expanded product suite? suite?

• What is the best approach for V&V? What is the best approach for V&V?

• What is the best use of ensembles in AQ What is the best use of ensembles in AQ prediction?prediction?

• What are the most effective methods for What are the most effective methods for statistical post-processing?statistical post-processing?