science and policy innovations for a low-carbon economy · 31-03-2010 · renewable and...

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Science and Policy Innovations for a Low-Carbon Economy

Daniel M. Kammen

Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy

Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory

Director, Transportation Sustainability Research Center

University of California, Berkeley

http://rael.berkeley.eduUCLA IoE Oppenheim Lecture, Los Angeles, CA March 31, 2010

University of

California,

Berkeley

Renewable

and Appropriate

Energy Laboratory

UC Berkeley

http://rael.berkeley.edu


Switch: Transmission, Storage & End-Use

Low-Carbon energy analysis and planning

Renewable

and Appropriate

Energy Laboratory

UC Berkeley

Transportation

Sustainability

Research Center

TSRC: Transportation options, planning and

systems science: EV/PHEV, biofuels, LCA

Energy &

development

- science

- technology

- economics

- health

- policies


The battle of tipping points

• The climate crisis – constant reminders

• Developing innovative technical and social „tipping

points‟ is vital

• Carbon pricing is needed in as many settings as

possible – ahead of adoption via the COP process

• Energy „Systems Thinking‟ is critically needed


NASA Synthesis Data, 1980 - 2007


Annual worldwide CO2 emissions have grown

faster than any of the IPCC 2001 scenariosRecent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns (

GtC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIAC

Actual emissions: EIA

450ppm stabilisation


A1FI

A1B

A1T

A2

B1

B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C

O2 E

mis

sio

ns (

GtC

y-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Actual emissions: CDIAC



A1FI

A1B

A1T

A2

B1

B2

Observed

2000-2006

3.3%

2006

2005

CO

2em

issi

ons

(Pg C

yr-

1)


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

CEC Data

Business as Usual

AB 32 Scenario

% Change from 1990 levels

California Global Warming Solutions Act:

~25% cut in emissions by 2020


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

U.S

. G

HG

Em

issio

ns (

GT

C e

q.)

Historic U. S.

emissions

Business as usual (EIA)

Kyoto protocol

Administration intensity target

IPCC Assessment: Climate Stabilization Zone

Kammen, “September 27, 2006 – A day to remember”, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,

The Cascade of Commitment:

IPCC Science, CA and US targets

The Obama climate target

The California target

EU Copenhagen plan

(2020 = 1990 less 25 – 40%


UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA

BERKELEY

REPORT OF THE

RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY

LABORATORY

Putting Renewables to Work:

How Many Jobs Can the

Clean Energy Industry

Generate?

by

Daniel M. Kammen

Kamal Kapadia

Matthias Fripp

of the

Energy and Resources Group &

the Goldman School of Public Policy

APRIL 13, 2004


• All new residential construction in California

will be zero net energy by 2020.

Residential New Construction

Energy Efficiency Strategies


Technological Innovation: solar


Technology Assessments

http://www.gigatonthrowdown.org/

Project coordinator: Sunil Paul

Scientific advisor: Dan Kammen


Actual PV Growth vs. Historic Forecasts

Actual

market

development


Information Technology Integrated with

Solar Technology: Performance Monitoring

00111001

Enphase Application

Servers

Internet00111001


Micro-inverters versus traditional designs:

A household and building electronics strategy


Market Innovation: Financial tools

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu 17

• Creates financing district

& approval process

• Provides upfront capital

• Attaches repayment

obligation to the building

• Identifies work & chooses

contractor

• Repays financing as a line item on

the property tax bill

• Repayment obligation transfers with

ownership

• Builds clean energy equity

$$ Upfront

$$ Repaid

on tax bill


Property Assessed

Clean Energy

(PACE):

State Actions

PACE financing has

now been adopted

by the White House

for support and

appears in the US

House Climate Bill

(Waxman-Markey)


Technological & market Innovation:

biofuels


Carbon Intensity of Fuels

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Gasoline -

CaRFG + 10%

Ethanol

Midwest

Corn Ethanol

(Ave)

Sugarcane

Ethanol

(Brazil)

California

Ethanol (Dry

mill, Wet

DGS)

Cellulosic

Ethanol

(Farmed

Poplar)

Cellulosic

Ethanol

(Waste)

Electricity

(Ca

Marginal)

Hydrogen

(SB1505)

Fuel Type

Carb

on

In

ten

sit

y (

CO

2e/M

J)

Indirect

Direct

Baseline

2020

Target

Today's Biofuels Future Low-Carbon Fuels

Energy Biosciences InstituteUniversity of California, Berkeley

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

A $500 million biofuel development grant from BP


LCA GHG emissions from tar sands:10 to 30% greater emissions

relative to conventional gasoline and diesel

• A number of studies have been conducted based on both current operations or future

operations with most studies estimating between 10 to 30% increased emissions on a

well-to-wheel basis (specific value dependent on the bitumen extraction, upgrading, and

refining process (e.g. mining versus in-situ).*

• Loss of soil and biogenic carbon can be significant and have not been generally included

NRDC Whte Paper and Environmental Research Letters

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Min

ed

Bitum

en &

Sta

ndalo

ne

Upgra

der

Min

ed

Bitum

en &

Refinery

Upgra

din

g

Min

ed

Bitum

en &

Sta

ndalo

ne

Upgra

der

Min

ed

Bitum

en &

Inte

gra

ted

Upgra

der

In-S

itu &

Sta

ndalo

ne

Upgra

der

In-S

itu

(SA

GD

)

and

Refinery

In-s

itu

(CS

S)

&

Refiner

Upgra

din

g

In-S

itu

(SA

GD

) &

Sta

ndalo

ne

Upgra

der

In-S

itu

(CS

S)

&

Sta

ndalo

ne

Upgra

der

GREET

1.8b

NRCan (2008) - GHGenius 3.13 GREET

1.8b

NRCan (2008) - GHGenius 3.13Inc

rea

se

in

Lif

ec

yc

le G

HG

Em

iss

ion

s

vs

U.S

. 2

00

5 a

ve

rag

e g

as

olin

e

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu24

Clean vehicles, low carbon fuels, and

Smart Growth are all needed

Preliminary 2050 Scenario (On-Road Vehicles, California)

Source: NRDC Analysis

• California’s 2020 goal requires about 25% reduction from Business-as-Usual.

• California's 2050 goal is 80% reduction from 1990 levels.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns (

MM

T C

O2

e)

.

Vehicle Efficiency

VMT

Low Carbon

Fuels

CA Target:

80% below

1990

Remaining Emissions

Plug-in Hybrids:

Can they move rapidly to scale?

Research & Action Flow on Low-Carbon

Transportation

Report Timeline

Searchinger, T, Hamburg, S, Melillo, J, Kammen, DM, Lubowski, R,

Oppenheimer, M. Robertson, GP, Schlessinger, W, and Tilman, GD (2009) “Fixing

a critical climate accounting error”, Science, 326, 527 – 528

Angelides, P and Kammen, DM (2009) “Invest pollution trading dividends in the

clean energy industry”, San Francisco Chronicle, April 2, A-15.

Kammen, DM, Arons, S, Lemoine, D, and Hummel, H (2009) “Cost-effectiveness

of greenhouse gas emission reductions from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles,” in

Plug-in Electric Vehicles: What Role for Washington? (Brookings Institute:

Washington, DC), Chapter 9, 170 – 191.

Lemoine, D, Kammen, DM, and Farrell, AE (2008) “An innovation and policy

agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles”,

Environmental Research Letters, 3, 1 – 8.

Kammen, DM, Farrell, AE, Plevin, RJ, Jones, AD, O’Hare, M, Nemet, G, and

Delucci, MA (2007) Biofuels: Linking Support to Performance (OECD Roundtable

on Biofuels).

Farrell AE, Plevin, RJ Turner, B T, Jones, AD, O’Hare, M and Kammen, DM

(2006) “Ethanol can contribute to energy and environmental goals”, Science,

311, 506 – 508.

Action Timeline

March 2010: IPCC and

Roundtable on

Sustainable Biofuels

develop protocols for

carbon accounting

October 2009: US-

China Electric Vehicle

Summit

June 2008: CA adopts

PHEV/EV metrics in

Low-Carbon Fuel

Standard (& WA, OR)

January 2007 (CA Ex

Order S-7-01) Adopts

Low-Carbon Fuel

Standard

time


How does it work?

As simple as your navigator

Virtual EV uses well-established modeling practices to model the performance of a variety of electrified vehicles.

VEV will validate and calibrate its models using relationships with OEMs, advanced vehicle simulator software, as well as testing real electrified vehicles.

Turn on Smart Phone

app or telemetry

device.

Sign up on VEV Co.

website

Drive. Your device

sends VEV Co. your

location and speed .

VEV Co. “translates”

your data into

performance for a

variety of EVs.

Visit your page to

explore your virtual

plug-in day (more on

next slide).

1 2 3 4 5

Beyond our iPhone app, VEV Co. can work with devices that plug into a vehicle’s On Board Diagnostics port, common in commercial fleets, and some GPS devices.

VEV logs your real world driving behavior, and translates it into virtual performance for a variety of electrified vehicles.

Figure : Model output (battery state of charge) for a pilot drivers in a virtual EREV 40 based on the Chevy Volt.

McKinsey 2010, Ernst and Young 2010


The education happens at our web interface:

consumers to explore their Virtual EV day

VEV Co. picks the car

with the lowest fuel costs

for each day.

Line colors designate which fuel powered

the car at each moment in time.

User can visualize

different EV options.

Actual miles driven and MPG for each

day. Most Americans do not know these

two facts about their driving.

Graph compares fuel

costs for all options.

Users can see data at

multiple levels.

Summary box makes a

recommendation for the

best EV match based on

the entire test drive

period, and offers links to

more information and

dealer websites.

Beyond EV education, our site tells users their basic driving stats (like daily

fuel cost) and generate revenue through links to auto dealers.

Screen shot of VEV Co.

website


Aggregated VEV Co. data helps answer

important questions about recharging

needs, grid preparation

By aggregating data,

VEV offers a unique

input to help answer

questions like “where

should the city invest

in public charging

stations” or “where

can utilities expect to

see lots of recharging,

and at what times of

day?”

Utilities, cities, and charge station providers will value this data.

Location of over-

night recharge for

vehicles who did not

run out of electricity

during the day. (EREV)

Location where

vehicles switched from

electric to gas fuel.


The Electric Jeepney (eJeepney) in Makati


Charcoal Fuel and Improved Stove Value Chain in Tanzania

(joint with the Blum Center on Poverty and Development

Charcoal production for Dar-es-Salaam (Malimbwi and Zahabu, 2007)


Establishing Effective Cookstove Dissemination Strategies in Tanzania

A partnership with the:

Tanzanian Commission on

Science and Technology

KUUTE Customers in MorogoroKUUTE Brochure


Design and

knowledge of

improved stoves

requires a flow of

awareness and the

re-design of market

innovations.Jiko la paipu liko wapi? Where is the

“pipe stove”?

Tanzanian

Commission

+

Berkeley

Artisans Vendors Consumers

Flow of awareness about the pipe stove benefits


Information innovation: Policy and

environmental accounting


Switch SummaryJames Nelson, Josiah Johnston, Autum Petros-Good, Christian Blanco,

Daniel Kammen, PI (UC Berkeley)


Generator Model

Objective: Minimize Total System Cost, Subject to GHG Constraints

New

Pla

nts

Exis

ting P

lants

T &

D

Sunk

Spring Summer Fall Winter

s

Dispatch Mix in 2024 @ $0/ton CO2

s

Dispatch Mitch in 2024 @ $50/ton CO2

Spring Summer Fall Winter

The SWITCH West Energy System

Model:

The Switch model is a geo-referenced model of the WECC region that:

- Matches conventional, nuclear, and renewable energy supply to

demand.

- Utilizes energy efficiency and demand-side management (to be

completed)

- Does so with the construction of transmission and distribution

infrastructure

- Has planned expansions to Texas (ERCOT), the US East, and China

(major task)


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Genera

tion (

MW

)

Carbon Cost ($2007/tCO2)

New WindNew Offshore WindNew Distributed PVNew CSP TroughNew BiomassHydro + Pumped StorageNew NuclearExisting NuclearNew GeothermalExisting GeothermalNew Combustion TurbineNew CCGTExisting Gas CogenExisting GasNew CoalExisting Coal CogenExisting Coal

Electricity Supply in Western North American Forecast versus carbon price in 2024


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Avera

ge G

enera

tion (G

W)

Carbon Cost ($2007/tCO2)

Average Generation in 2026-2030New Wind

New Offshore_Wind

Existing Wind

New Distributed_PV

New CSP_Trough_6h_TES

New Biomass_IGCC

New Bio_Gas

New Geothermal

Existing Geothermal_ST

Existing Geothermal_BT

Existing Hydro_Pumped

Existing Hydro_NonPumpedNew Nuclear

Existing Uranium_ST

New CCGT

New Gas_Steam_Turbine

New Gas_Combustion_TurbineExisting Gas_ST

Existing Gas_IC

Existing Gas_GT

Existing Gas_CC

Existing Gas_CC Cogen

Existing Gas_ST Cogen

Existing Gas_IC Cogen

Existing Gas_GT Cogen

New Coal_IGCC

Old Transmission Lines

New Transmission Lines

Predicted transmission $50t/CO2 in 2024

Greenhouse gas and sustainability

calculators:

http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu

&

http://www.coolcalifornia.org

science and policy innovations for a low-carbon economy · 31-03-2010 · renewable and...

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